Estella

Estella lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Estella's population, as of November 2025, is estimated at around 2,815 people. This reflects an increase of 274 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,541. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 2,755 residents following examination of the latest ERP data release by ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 10 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,414 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Estella's growth rate of 10.8% since the 2021 census exceeded that of the SA3 area (3.5%) and the SA4 region, making it a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 36.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, exceptional growth is predicted over this period, placing Estella in the top 10 percent of Australian non-metropolitan areas. The suburb is expected to increase by 1,775 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 61.9% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Estella according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Estella's development activity has been limited, averaging one approval per year over the five-year period from 2017 to 2021. This resulted in a total of eight dwelling approvals during this time. Such low levels of development are typical in rural areas where housing needs are modest and construction activity is constrained by local demand and infrastructure capacity.

It should be noted that due to the small sample size, individual development projects can significantly impact annual growth and relativity statistics. Estella's construction activity is notably lower than that of the Rest of NSW. The location has also seen less development compared to national averages. New developments in Estella consist of 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the current housing pattern of 82.0% houses. This change suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs.

As of approximately 2021, Estella has around 1375 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to grow by 1,741 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Estella has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified three projects likely impacting the area: Boorooma Neighbourhood Shopping Centre, Northern Growth Area Sewer Upgrades, Mount Austin Manor Houses - Social Housing, and Charles Sturt University Innovation Campus Expansion. The following details those most relevant.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Estella performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Estella has an educated workforce with 0.8% unemployment rate and 9.2% employment growth in the past year (AreaSearch data). As of June 2025, 1,532 residents are employed, with a 2.9% lower unemployment rate compared to Rest of NSW's 3.7%.

Workforce participation is high at 64.9%, above Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. Estella specializes in education & training with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level, but agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 3.0% compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data.

In the past year, Estella saw employment increase by 9.2% and labour force by 9.4%, raising unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. Meanwhile, Rest of NSW experienced employment decline of 0.1% and labour force growth of 0.3%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but industry-specific projections suggest Estella's employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 14.1% over ten years.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that Estella has an above average income. The median income is $61,853 and the average is $75,448. This contrasts with Rest of NSW, which has a median income of $49,459 and an average income of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Estella would be approximately $69,653 (median) and $84,962 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Estella are around the 64th percentile nationally. The earnings profile shows that 39.0% of locals (1,097 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category. After housing costs, 85.7% of income remains for other expenses. Estella's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Estella is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Estella's housing structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.5% houses and 17.5% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 88.4% houses and 11.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Estella stood at 28.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.3% and rented ones at 34.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,667, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Estella was $380, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $280. Nationally, Estella's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,667 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher at $380 compared to the national figure of $375.

Estella features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.5% of all households, including 33.0% couples with children, 25.2% couples without children, and 10.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.5%, with lone person households at 23.8% and group households comprising 6.7%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5.

Estella demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Estella is notably high, with 30.8% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications, compared to 18.7% in the SA4 region and 20.4% in the SA3 area. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.7%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 35.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (25.4%). Educational participation is high, with 37.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.8% in primary, 9.9% in tertiary, and 8.8% pursuing secondary education.

Educational facilities appear to be located outside Estella's immediate boundaries, requiring families to access schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The transport analysis indicates that Estella currently operates 15 active public transport stops. These stops offer a mix of bus services, with a total of 14 individual routes running weekly. The combined passenger trips across these routes amount to 213 per week.

Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 148 meters to the nearest stop. On average, there are 30 trips daily across all routes, translating to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Estella's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Estella's health data shows positive results with low prevalence of common conditions among its general population, but higher than national averages in older, at-risk cohorts. Private health cover is high, at approximately 57% (1,596 people), compared to Rest of NSW's 51.4%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 9.1% and 7.5% respectively. 69.7% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 64.5% in Rest of NSW. Estella has 19.4% (546 people) aged 65 and over, with health outcomes among seniors requiring more attention than the broader population.

Estella ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Estella's population was found to be predominantly homogeneous, with 86.1% being citizens and 84.6% born in Australia. The majority of residents, 86.6%, spoke English exclusively at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 58.5% of Estella's population, compared to 64.3% across the rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups were English (29.8%), Australian (28.4%), and Irish (9.3%). However, there were notable disparities in the representation of certain ethnicities: Samoan was overrepresented at 0.4%, Scottish at 8.6%, and Indian at 2.5%.

Estella hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Estella has a median age of 34, which is lower than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and also significantly lower than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, Estella has an over-representation of the 15-24 cohort at 15.7%, while the 65-74 year-olds are under-represented at 5.7%. Between 2021 and present, the population aged 35 to 44 grew from 11.7% to 13.7%, and the 15-24 cohort increased from 14.6% to 15.7%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort declined from 15.8% to 14.3%, and the 45-54 group dropped from 9.8% to 8.5%. Demographic modeling indicates Estella's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to grow significantly, increasing by 356 people (89%) from 402 to 759.