Thornton (NSW)

Thornton lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Thornton (NSW) is around 12,001. This reflects a growth of 1,311 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,690. The increase was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 11,506 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 289 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 722 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Thornton's growth rate of 12.3% since the 2021 census exceeded both the non-metro area's growth rate of 5.1% and the state average, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 71.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where applicable, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Looking ahead, exceptional growth is predicted over the period from 2025 to 2041, with the area expected to grow by 12,991 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 114.9% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Thornton was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Thornton has recorded around 95 residential properties granted approval per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 479 homes. So far in FY26, 29 approvals have been recorded. This results in approximately 8.1 people moving to the area each year for each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25, indicating demand significantly outpaces supply. The average new home construction cost is $393,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options.

In this financial year, $1.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, Thornton records about three-quarters the building activity per person and places among the 79th percentile nationally when assessed areas are considered. New building activity comprises 69.0% standalone homes and 31.0% townhouses or apartments, showing a shift from the current housing mix of 93.0% houses. The location has approximately 143 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Thornton is expected to grow by 13,793 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Thornton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

AreaSearch has identified 16 infrastructure projects that could impact the area. Key projects include Thornton Rail Bridge Duplication, Raymond Terrace and Heatherbrae Strategy (2020-2040), North Thornton Estate, and Brentwood Thornton Final Stage. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Thornton well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Thornton has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Key sectors include health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and retail trade.

Notably, public administration & safety employment is 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0.8% of the regional average. As of June 2025, 6,511 residents are employed with an unemployment rate of 2.5%, below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation is high at 71.1% compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%.

Between June 2024 and June 2025, the labour force decreased by 4.4% and employment declined by 4.6%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.2 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (Sep-22) project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, with local projections suggesting Thornton's employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, Thornton had a median income among taxpayers of $52,236. The average income stood at $60,820. This is below the national average. Rest of NSW had levels of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $58,823 (median) and $68,489 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Thornton cluster around the 66th percentile nationally. Distribution data shows 41.7% of the population fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, with 5,004 individuals occupying this range. This pattern is similar to regional levels where 29.9% similarly occupy this range. High housing costs consume 15.2% of income. Despite this, strong earnings place disposable income at the 70th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Thornton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Thornton's dwelling structures, as per the most recent Census, consisted of 92.8% houses and 7.1% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 87.1% houses and 13.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thornton was at 24.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.3% and rented ones at 34.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,800, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,862. The median weekly rent in Thornton was $400, higher than Non-Metro NSW's figure of $375. Nationally, Thornton's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Thornton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 81.5% of all households, including 38.9% couples with children, 28.7% couples without children, and 12.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 18.5%, with lone person households at 15.0% and group households comprising 3.3%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Thornton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area has lower university qualification rates at 15.9% compared to the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both challenges and opportunities for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 43.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (33.2%).

Educational participation is high at 29.8%, including primary education (10.1%), secondary education (7.7%), and tertiary education (4.7%). The area has Thornton Public School and Aspect Hunter School serving a total of 1,097 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 986) and balanced educational opportunities. It includes one primary and one K-12 school. School places per 100 residents are lower at 9.1 compared to the regional average of 17.6, potentially leading some students to attend schools in nearby areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thornton has 76 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 98 different routes that collectively facilitate 5,202 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy good transport accessibility, with an average distance of 219 meters to the nearest stop.

The service frequency is 743 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 68 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Thornton is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Thornton faces significant health challenges with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, particularly among older age cohorts.

Approximately 51% (~6,121 people) of Thornton's total population has private health cover, which is relatively low compared to other areas. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in Thornton, affecting 11.4 and 10.1% of residents respectively. Conversely, 65.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of NSW. The area has an 11.9% (1,428 people) aged 65 and over population, lower than the 15.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those of the broader population.

Thornton is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Thornton's population showed low cultural diversity, with 90.1% born in Australia, 93.4% being citizens, and 93.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 54.8% of Thornton's population, compared to 57.0% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestral groups were Australian (33.3%), English (30.6%), and Scottish (7.2%).

Some ethnic groups had notable differences: Australian Aboriginal was higher at 4.9% in Thornton than the regional average of 5.1%, Samoan was higher at 0.3% compared to 0.1%, and Welsh remained similar at 0.6%.

Thornton hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Thornton is 32 years, which is notably lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 and also substantially lower than the Australian median of 38. Relative to Rest of NSW, Thornton has a higher concentration of residents aged 25-34 (18.1%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (7.3%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the population aged 35-44 has grown from 13.0% to 14.3%. Conversely, the population aged 55-64 has declined from 11.0% to 9.5%, and the population aged 45-54 has dropped from 12.0% to 10.8%. By 2041, Thornton's age composition is expected to see notable shifts. Leading this demographic shift, the population aged 25-34 is projected to grow by 108%, reaching 4,509 people from a current total of 2,172.