Thornton (NSW)

Thornton lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the Thornton (NSW) statistical area (Lv2) had an estimated population of around 12,446 as of Nov 2025. This reflected an increase of 1,756 people (16.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,690 people. The change was inferred from the resident population of 11,626 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 289 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equated to a density ratio of 749 persons per square kilometer, relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Thornton (NSW) (SA2)'s 16.4% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the non-metro area's 5.7% and the state's growth rate, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 71.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, exceptional growth is predicted over the period with the area expected to grow by 12,973 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 107.1% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Thornton was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Thornton shows approximately 100 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 502 homes. As of FY-26, 55 approvals have been recorded. This results in an average of 7.7 people moving to the area per dwelling built yearly between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating demand outpaces supply, which typically influences prices and buyer competition. New homes are being constructed at an average value of $393,000.

Additionally, $430,000 in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, Thornton records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 79th percentile nationally. Current new building activity comprises 69.0% standalone homes and 31.0% townhouses or apartments, demonstrating a shift from the current housing mix of 93.0% houses. The location has approximately 140 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Thornton is expected to grow by 13,330 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Thornton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects that may impact the region. Notable ones include Thornton Rail Bridge Duplication, Raymond Terrace and Heatherbrae Strategy (2020-2040), North Thornton Estate, and Brentwood Thornton Final Stage. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Thornton well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Thornton's workforce comprises an even mix of white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent representation in essential services sectors. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 2.3%, based on AreaSearch's aggregated statistical area data.

In this period, 6,823 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate 1.5% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation stands at 71.1%, surpassing Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries for employment among residents include health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and retail trade. Notably, public administration & safety has an employment concentration 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0.8% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the ratio of Census working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force decreased by 2.0%, with employment declining by 1.8%, leading to a fall in unemployment of 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.5%, labour force decline of 0.1%, and an increase in unemployment of 0.4 percentage points. State-level data for NSW up to 25-Nov-25 shows a slight employment contraction of 0.03% (loss of 2,260 jobs), with the state's unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate stands at 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thornton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Thornton had a median income among taxpayers of $52,236 and an average level of $60,820. Both figures are below the national average. For Rest of NSW, these levels were $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Thornton would be approximately $56,864 (median) and $66,209 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family, and personal incomes in Thornton cluster around the 66th percentile nationally. Distribution data shows 41.7% of the population (5,189 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to regional levels where 29.9% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 15.2% of income in Thornton. Despite this, strong earnings place disposable income at the 70th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Thornton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Thornton's residential structure, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 92.8% houses and 7.1% other dwellings such as semi-detached properties, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In contrast, Non-Metro NSW had a composition of 87.1% houses and 13.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thornton stood at 24.0%, with mortgaged dwellings making up 41.3% and rented properties accounting for 34.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,800, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,862. Weekly rent figures in Thornton were recorded at $400, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $375. Nationally, Thornton's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Thornton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.5% of all households, including 38.9% couples with children, 28.7% couples without children, and 12.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 18.5%, with lone person households at 15.0% and group households comprising 3.3%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Thornton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.9%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (33.2%). Educational participation is high at 29.8%, comprising primary education (10.1%), secondary education (7.7%), and tertiary education (4.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 4.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thornton has 85 operational public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 96 unique routes facilitating 5,021 weekly passenger trips in total. The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 215 meters, indicating good transport accessibility.

On average, there are 717 daily trips across all routes, which translates to about 59 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Thornton is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Thornton faces significant health challenges with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, particularly among older age cohorts at a slightly higher degree. Approximately 51% (~6,348 people) have private health cover, compared to 54.8% across Rest of NSW.

Mental health issues impact 11.4% and asthma impacts 10.1% of residents in Thornton. 65.5% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of NSW. As of 2021, 11.8% (1,468 people) are aged 65 and over, lower than the 15.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Thornton is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Thornton's population showed low cultural diversity, with 90.1% born in Australia, 93.4% being citizens, and 93.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, accounting for 54.8%, compared to 57.0% regionally. Ancestry-wise, Australian (33.3%), English (30.6%), and Scottish (7.2%) were the top groups.

Notably, Australian Aboriginal (4.9%), Samoan (0.3%), and Welsh (0.6%) had higher representations than regional averages.

Thornton hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Thornton is 32 years, notably under Rest of NSW's average of 43 and substantially under the Australian median of 38. Relative to Rest of NSW, Thornton has a higher concentration of 25-34 year-olds at 18.0%, but fewer 65-74 year-olds at 7.3%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 13.0% to 14.3% of Thornton's population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 11.0% to 9.5%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 12.0% to 10.8%. By 2041, Thornton is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition, with the 25 to 34 group projected to grow by 101% (2,268 people), reaching 4,509 from an initial count of 2,240.