Minto

Population growth drivers in Minto are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Minto is around 14,564, reflecting an increase of 624 people since the 2021 Census. The 2021 Census reported a population of 13,940 in Minto. This growth was inferred from AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS on June 2024, which estimated the resident population at 14,462. The additional 122 validated new addresses contributed to this increase. This results in a population density ratio of 1,521 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Minto has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.3%, outpacing the state's growth rate.

Overseas migration contributed approximately 66.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in Minto. For future projections until 2041, AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Minto is expected to increase its population by 1,116 persons to reach a total of approximately 15,680 by 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 6.3% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Minto according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Minto has experienced around 54 dwellings receiving development approval annually. Approximately 270 homes have been approved over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional 24 approved so far in FY-26. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $285,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers.

In FY-26, there have been $79.4 million in commercial approvals, indicating strong commercial development momentum. When measured against Greater Sydney, Minto shows approximately 58% of the construction activity per person and places among the 62nd percentile of areas assessed nationally. Recent construction comprises 55.0% standalone homes and 45.0% medium and high-density housing, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points. This reflects a change from the current housing mix, which is currently 80.0% houses, due to reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

Minto has around 240 people per approval, indicating a low density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Minto is forecasted to gain 914 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Minto has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 20 projects potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Minto Industry Park, Greater Macarthur Growth Area - Glenfield to Macarthur Corridor, Minto Multicultural Community Centre Enhancement, and Minto Logistics Hub. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Minto recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Minto's workforce is well-educated with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.0% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.6%.

As of June 2025, there were 6,899 residents employed, and the unemployment rate was 2.8% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Minto is lower at 55.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing. Health care & social assistance shows particularly strong specialization with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 5.2% compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 4.6%, labour force by 4.7%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.6%, labour force expand by 2.9%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Minto's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Minto had a median income among taxpayers of $49,164 and an average level of $54,913. This is lower than national averages, which were $56,994 and $80,856 respectively across Greater Sydney. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $55,364 (median) and $61,838 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household income ranks at the 44th percentile ($1,646 weekly), while personal income is at the 26th percentile. Income brackets indicate that 36.7% of locals (5,344 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, consistent with broader trends showing 30.9% in the same category across the broader area. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.2% of income remaining, ranking at the 39th percentile.

Minto is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Minto, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.8% houses and 20.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's figures of 78.5% houses and 21.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Minto was at 18.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 42.8% and rented dwellings at 38.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,100, aligning with Sydney metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $350, compared to Sydney metro's $380. Nationally, Minto's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Minto features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 79.8% of all households, including 47.2% couples with children, 16.4% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 20.2%, with lone person households at 17.9% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.9.

Educational attainment in Minto aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Minto's educational qualifications trail Greater Sydney benchmarks, with 29.6% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 38.0%. This gap indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common (18.8%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 28.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (18.5%).

Educational participation is high, with 35.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.6% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 6.3% pursuing tertiary education. Nine schools operate within Minto, educating approximately 2,909 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1013) offering balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes six primary, one secondary, and two K-12 schools. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 93 active public transport stops in Minto. These include a mix of train and bus services. There are 43 individual routes operating from these stops, collectively providing 4,336 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 190 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 619 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 46 weekly trips per individual stop.

Minto's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data shows Minto residents have relatively positive health outcomes, with low prevalence of common conditions among the general population, but higher than national averages for older and at-risk cohorts. Private health cover is very low, at approximately 49% (7,092 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (7.5%) and arthritis (7.0%). 72.1% report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 70.3%. Minto has 13.3% residents aged 65 and over (1,937 people), lower than Greater Sydney's 14.4%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Minto is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Minto's cultural diversity is notable, with 48.2% of its population born overseas and 54.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Minto, accounting for 38.7% of the population. Islam is significantly overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 24.2% versus the regional average of 12.5%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (35.1%), Australian (15.4%), and English (13.7%). Some ethnic groups have notable divergences: Samoan is overrepresented at 3.6%, Filipino at 3.8%, and Indian at 7.5%.

Minto's population is younger than the national pattern

Minto's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 years and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The 5-14 age group constitutes 16.3% of Minto's population, higher than that of Greater Sydney. However, the 25-34 age cohort makes up only 12.1%, which is lower compared to Greater Sydney. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 3.0% to 4.1% of Minto's population. Conversely, the 25-34 age cohort has decreased from 13.6% to 12.1%. By 2041, significant demographic changes are forecast for Minto. The 75-84 age group is projected to rise substantially by 489 people (an increase of 82%), from 597 to 1,087. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 59% of total population growth, reflecting Minto's aging demographic trend. In contrast, both the 25-34 and 0-4 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.