Minto

Population growth drivers in Minto are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population for the Minto statistical area (Lv2) is around 15,090. This reflects an increase of 1,150 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,940. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 14,941 residents following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 122 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,576 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Minto (SA2) saw an 8.2% growth since the 2021 census, exceeding the state's growth rate of 7.6%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 66.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the Minto (SA2) is expected to expand by 1,109 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 2.5% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Minto recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Minto has experienced around 57 dwellings receiving development approval each year. Approximately 288 homes were approved over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional 40 approved so far in FY-26. The population decline in recent years suggests that new supply has likely been keeping up with demand, providing good choice for buyers.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $285,000, which is below regional norms, reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers. In FY-26, $78.3 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Sydney, Minto records about 62% of the building activity per person and places among the 66th percentile of areas assessed nationally. New development consists of 55.0% detached dwellings and 45.0% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points.

This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix, which is currently 80.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 213 people per dwelling approval, Minto shows a developing market. Population forecasts indicate that Minto will gain 381 residents through to 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Minto has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 18 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Minto Industry Park, Minto Multicultural Community Centre Enhancement, Greater Macarthur Growth Area - Glenfield to Macarthur Corridor, and Minto Logistics Hub. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Minto shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Minto's workforce is well-educated with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 6.9% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.2%.

As of September 2025, there are 6,933 residents employed, while the unemployment rate is 2.7% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Minto is lower at 55.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries for employment among Minto residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing. Health care & social assistance shows notable concentration with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.2% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Many Minto residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census working population data. In the past year, employment increased by 5.2%, while labour force grew by 5.1%, keeping unemployment relatively stable. Comparatively, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.1% and labour force expand by 2.4%, with unemployment rising by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data from NSW to 25-Nov shows employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Minto's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended 30 June 2023, Minto had a median income among taxpayers of $49,164. The average income stood at $54,913. This is below the national average of $60,817 and Greater Sydney's average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from financial year ended 30 June 2023 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $53,520 (median) and $59,778 (average). According to the Census conducted in August 2021, household income ranks at the 44th percentile with $1,646 weekly, while personal income sits at the 26th percentile. Distribution data shows that 36.7% of Minto's population, comprising 5,538 individuals, fall within the $1,500 to $2,999 income range, similar to regional levels where 30.9% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Minto, with only 79.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 39th percentile.

Minto is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Minto, as evaluated at the latest Census, consisted of 79.8% houses and 20.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 78.5% houses and 21.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Minto was at 18.6%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (42.8%) or rented (38.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,100, aligning with Sydney metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $350, compared to Sydney metro's $2,100 and $380 respectively. Nationally, Minto's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,100 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $350 compared to the national figure of $375.

Minto features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 79.8% of all households, including 47.2% couples with children, 16.4% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 20.2%, with lone person households at 17.9% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.9.

Educational attainment in Minto aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Educational qualifications in the Minto trail region lag behind Greater Sydney benchmarks. As of 2021, 29.6% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to 38.0% in Greater Sydney. The most common degree is Bachelor's, held by 18.8% of residents, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 9.5%, and graduate diplomas at 1.3%. Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 28.2% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 9.7% and certificates at 18.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 35.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the 2021 census. This includes 13.6% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 6.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Minto has 107 operational public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 44 distinct routes, facilitating 4,971 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 190 meters to the nearest stop.

On average, there are 710 daily trips across all routes, translating to about 46 weekly trips per individual stop.

Minto's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data shows relatively positive health outcomes for Minto residents. The prevalence of common health conditions is quite low among the general population but higher than the national average in older, at-risk cohorts.

Approximately 49% (~7,348 people) have private health cover, which is lower than the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 7.5% and 7.0% of residents respectively. 72.1% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.3% across Greater Sydney. There is a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over in Minto at 13.3% (2,006 people), compared to the 14.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those for the broader population.

Minto is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Minto's population shows high cultural diversity, with 48.2% born overseas and 54.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 38.7% of Minto's population. Islam is overrepresented in Minto compared to Greater Sydney, making up 24.2% versus the regional average of 12.5%.

In terms of ancestry, 'Other' is the largest group at 35.1%, higher than the regional average of 21.6%. Australian and English ancestry comprise 15.4% and 13.7% respectively. Notable ethnic groups with higher representation in Minto include Samoan (3.6% vs regional 2.4%), Filipino (3.8% vs 3.3%), and Indian (7.5% vs 4.8%).

Minto's population is younger than the national pattern

Minto's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 years and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The 5-14 age group comprises 16.3% of Minto's population, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage. However, the 25-34 age cohort makes up 12.1%, lower than Greater Sydney's figure. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 3.0% to 4.1% of Minto's population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age cohort has decreased from 13.6% to 12.1%. By 2041, projections show significant demographic shifts in Minto. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to rise substantially by 468 people (76%), from 618 to 1,087. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 65% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 25 to 34 and 0 to 4 age groups are projected to decrease in numbers.