Raby

Raby has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of May 2026, the population of the suburb of Raby is estimated to be around 5,933 people. This figure reflects a decrease from the 2021 Census count of 5,943 people, indicating a change of -10 persons (0.2%). The latest resident population estimate by AreaSearch, following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2025 and validation of three new addresses since the Census date, is 5,821 persons. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 2,230 persons per square kilometer, exceeding national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Natural growth contributed around 65% to overall population gains recently.

Population projections for Raby are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2-level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is projected to expand by 168 persons, reflecting a total growth of 0.9% over the 16-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Raby is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data indicates Raby has seen approximately 5 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 28 homes. As of FY-26, 13 approvals have been recorded. During this period, population has fallen, suggesting that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice while new properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $449,000, moderately above regional levels, indicating emphasis on quality construction. This financial year has seen $217,000 in commercial approvals, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to Greater Sydney, where Raby has significantly less development activity, 85.0% below the regional average per person.

This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints nationally. New development consists of 80.0% detached dwellings and 20.0% attached dwellings, sustaining Raby's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space, at around 1182 people per approval indicating a mature, established area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Raby is expected to grow by 56 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Looking ahead, Raby is expected to grow by 56 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Raby has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified two projects likely impacting this region: Emerald Hills Estate and Raby Road Upgrade. Other notable projects include Kirkham Lane Improvements and Claymore Urban Renewal Project (Hillcroft at Claymore). The following details those most relevant.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates Raby maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Raby has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate is 4.3%, with an estimated employment growth of 6.6% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of December 2025, there are 3,252 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Raby is 73.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. According to Census responses, 31.9% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Notably, the transport, postal & warehousing sector has a high concentration with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence, with only 5.5% of employment compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the Census working population count versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 6.6%, while the labour force grew by 6.7%, keeping unemployment broadly flat. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.2% and unemployment increase marginally during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insights into potential future demand within Raby. These projections estimate national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Raby's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though these are simple weighting extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that income in Raby is below the national average. The median income is $54,652 and the average income stands at $60,604. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% from July 2023 to March 2026, current estimates would be approximately $60,292 (median) and $66,858 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Raby cluster around the 55th percentile nationally. Income brackets indicate that 38.8% of the population falls within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort likewise represents 30.9%. High housing costs consume 16.0% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 60th percentile.

Raby is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Raby, as per the latest Census evaluation, 92.5% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 7.5% comprising semi-detached properties, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Sydney metropolitan area's distribution of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Raby stood at 31.7%, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 48.1% and rented ones making up 20.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, lower than the Sydney metro average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Raby was $410, compared to Sydney's $470. Nationally, Raby's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Raby features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 82.7% of all households, including 41.7% couples with children, 25.5% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 17.3%, with lone person households at 15.5% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Raby fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.5%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (27.8%). Educational participation is high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 11.1% in primary, 8.1% in secondary, and 3.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.1% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Raby has 38 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 35 different routes, collectively facilitating 932 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 134 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily due to its residential nature. Car remains the dominant transport mode at 92%, while train usage stands at 5%. The area has an average vehicle ownership of 1.7 per dwelling, higher than the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 31.9% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 133 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 24 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Raby is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Raby faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~3,021 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 8.5 and 7.6% of residents respectively. 69.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents show an above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 16.4% of residents aged 65 and over (973 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Raby was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Raby's cultural diversity was notable, with 28.4% of its population born overseas and 28.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Raby, accounting for 59.3%. Islam, however, was overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 9.2% versus 6.8%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (23.7%), English (21.3%), and Other (16.6%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Samoan at 1.3% in Raby versus 0.5% regionally, Lebanese at 2.6%, and Serbian at 0.8% compared to regional averages of 2.6% and 0.5% respectively.

Raby's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Raby's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Sydney's average of 37 years. This is modestly below Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Raby has a higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (11.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.0%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the 65 to 74 age group has increased from 9.5% to 11.0%, while the 75 to 84 cohort has risen from 2.7% to 4.1%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 14.5% to 12.8%, and the 25 to 34 group has fallen from 13.2% to 12.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Raby's age profile will change significantly. The 75 to 84 cohort is projected to grow by 75%, adding 182 residents to reach 426. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 66% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, the 25 to 34 and 65 to 74 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.