Minto - St Andrews
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Minto - St Andrews are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Aug 2025, Minto - St Andrews' population is approximately 22,100, reflecting a 3.6% increase since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 21,335. This growth is inferred from ABS estimates; as of June 2024, the estimated resident population was 21,952, with an additional 126 validated new addresses since the Census date. The current density ratio is 1,780 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade (2011-2021), Minto - St Andrews demonstrated a compound annual growth rate of 1.3%, outpacing state averages. Overseas migration contributed approximately 65.8% of overall population gains during this period. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year; for areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year are used.

Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Minto - St Andrews is projected to increase its population by approximately 1,760 persons, recording a total gain of 7.3% over the 17-year period based on latest population numbers.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Minto - St Andrews according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Minto - St Andrews averaged approximately 58 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years ending June 30, totalling 294 homes. As of July 14, 2026, 14 approvals have been recorded in FY-26. Despite population decline during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average cost of $285,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers.

This financial year has seen $79.4 million in commercial approvals, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Minto - St Andrews has significantly less development activity (59.0% below regional average per person), which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This is also lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 54.0% detached dwellings and 46.0% townhouses or apartments, offering choices across price ranges from spacious family homes to compact options. This shows a considerable shift from the current housing mix (currently 86.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Minto - St Andrews reflects a low density area with around 317 people per approval.

Future projections estimate an increase of 1,612 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Minto - St Andrews has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 22 projects likely impacting the region. Notable ones include Minto Industry Park, Minto Multicultural Community Centre Enhancement, Minto Logistics Hub, and Greater Macarthur Growth Area - Glenfield to Macarthur Corridor. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Minto - St Andrews recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Minto - St Andrews has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 6.0% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.7%.

As of June 2025, there are 10,962 residents employed, with an unemployment rate at 1.8% above Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation at 56.5% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing, with a particularly notable concentration in the latter sector, being 1.9 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services have limited presence at 5.2% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count.

Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 4.7% while labour force increased by 4.9%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6%, labour force grow by 2.9%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia for May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Minto - St Andrews's current employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.3%% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Minto - St Andrews's median income among taxpayers was $50,659 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $56,582 during the same period. This compares to Greater Sydney's figures of $56,994 (median) and $80,856 (average). By March 2025, current estimates suggest the median income will be approximately $56,029 and the average income $62,580, based on a 10.6% growth in wages since financial year 2022 as per the Wage Price Index. According to census data, household income ranks at the 49th percentile with weekly earnings of $1,727. Personal income sits at the 31st percentile. In terms of income distribution, 37.5% of Minto - St Andrews's population (8,287 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, which is consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 30.9% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 46th percentile.

Minto - St Andrews is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Minto - St Andrews, as per the latest Census evaluation, had 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. This compares to Sydney metro's 78.5% houses and 21.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Minto - St Andrews was 22.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 44.7% and rented ones at 32.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,035, below Sydney metro's $2,100. The median weekly rent was $370, compared to Sydney metro's $380. Nationally, Minto - St Andrews' mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Minto - St Andrews features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 80.7% of all households, including 45.6% couples with children, 18.2% couples without children, and 15.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 19.3%, with lone person households at 17.1% and group households making up 2.1%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.9.

Educational attainment in Minto - St Andrews aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 26.0%, significantly below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 17.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 31.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (21.0%).

Educational participation is notably high at 33.3%, including 12.7% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education. A total of 10 schools operate within Minto, educating approximately 3,674 students. The area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1011) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes 7 primary, 1 secondary, and 2 K-12 schools. Note that where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Minto-St Andrews has 130 active public transport stops. These are served by 61 routes offering a total of 4,464 weekly passenger trips. Residents' average distance to the nearest stop is 172 meters.

Daily service frequency averages 637 trips across all routes, equating to approximately 34 weekly trips per individual stop.

Minto - St Andrews's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data for Minto - St Andrews shows relatively positive health outcomes with low prevalence of common conditions among the general population. However, prevalence is higher than the national average in older, at-risk cohorts.

Private health cover is very low, at approximately 48% of the total population (~10,608 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 7.8 and 7.4% of residents respectively. A majority, 71.0%, report being completely clear of medical ailments, similar to Greater Sydney's 70.3%. The area has 13.6% of residents aged 65 and over (3,001 people). Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Minto - St Andrews is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Minto-St Andrews has a high level of cultural diversity, with 43.3% of its population born overseas and 47.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Minto-St Andrews, comprising 44.5% of the population. However, Islam is notably overrepresented, making up 20.1% compared to the Greater Sydney average of 12.5%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (28.8%), Australian (17.4%), and English (15.2%). Some ethnic groups have notable divergences in representation: Samoan at 3.0% (regional average 2.4%), Filipino at 4.0% (regional average 3.3%), and Lebanese at 2.1% (regional average 1.9%).

Minto - St Andrews's population is younger than the national pattern

Minto - St Andrews has a median age of 35 years, which is younger than Greater Sydney's 37 years and the national average of 38 years. The age group of 5-14 years makes up 15.4% of the population, higher than in Greater Sydney. However, the 25-34 age cohort comprises 12.1%, which is lower compared to Greater Sydney. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 2.9% to 3.9% of the population. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has decreased from 13.6% to 12.1%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Minto - St Andrews. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 747 people (an increase of 86%) from 866 to 1,614. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 56% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 25-34 and 0-4 age groups are expected to decrease in number.