Minto - St Andrews

Population growth drivers in Minto - St Andrews are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Minto - St Andrews's population is around 22,225 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 890 people (4.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,335 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 21,956 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 162 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,790 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Minto - St Andrews has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a 1.3% compound annual growth rate, outpacing the state. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 65.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, a population increase just below the median of Australian statistical areas is expected, with the area expected to grow by 1,760 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 6.7% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Minto - St Andrews according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Minto - St Andrews has experienced around 58 dwellings receiving development approval per year, totalling 294 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 45 approvals have been recorded. With population declining over recent years, development activity has been adequate in relative terms, a positive for buyers, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $215,000—below regional norms—reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers. Additionally, $79.4 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity.

When measured against Greater Sydney, Minto - St Andrews has significantly less development activity (59.0% below regional average per person). This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This is likewise lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. New development consists of 54.0% detached houses and 46.0% townhouses or apartments, showing an expanding range of medium-density options creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 86.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. The location has approximately 317 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market.

Looking ahead, Minto - St Andrews is expected to grow by 1,487 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Minto - St Andrews has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 46thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 22 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Minto Industry Park, Minto Multicultural Community Centre Enhancement, Minto Logistics Hub, and Greater Macarthur Growth Area - Glenfield to Macarthur Corridor, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Minto - St Andrews shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Minto - St Andrews has a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 5.7%, and 7.1% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 11,299 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 1.5% above Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is on par with Greater Sydney's 70.2%. Based on Census responses, a high 27.7% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing. The area has a particular employment specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 1.9 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 5.2% versus the regional average of 11.5%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 7.1% alongside the labour force increasing by 7.2%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. This contrasts with Greater Sydney, where employment rose by 2.2%, the labour force grew by 2.3%, and unemployment rose marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Minto - St Andrews. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Minto - St Andrews's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.4% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Minto - St Andrews SA2's median income among taxpayers is $54,460, with an average of $59,909. This is below the national average, and compares to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $59,285 (median) and $65,217 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household income ranks at the 48th percentile ($1,727 weekly), while personal income sits at the 30th percentile. Distribution data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 37.5% of the community (8,334 individuals), mirroring regional levels where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 46th percentile.

Minto - St Andrews is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Minto - St Andrews, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Minto - St Andrews lagged that of Sydney metro, at 22.4%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (44.7%) or rented (32.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Sydney metro average at $2,035, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $370, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Minto - St Andrews's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are lower than the national figure of $375.

Minto - St Andrews features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 80.7% of all households, comprising 45.6% couples with children, 18.2% couples without children, and 15.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 19.3%, with lone person households at 17.1% and group households comprising 2.1% of the total. The median household size of 3.1 people is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational attainment in Minto - St Andrews aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (26.0%) substantially below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 17.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 31.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (21.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.7% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 148 active transport stops operating within Minto - St Andrews, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 62 individual routes, collectively providing 5,124 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 172 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 81%, with 13% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 27.7% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 732 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 34 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Minto - St Andrews is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Minto - St Andrews, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 49% of the total population (~10,868 people). This compares to 59.9% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and arthritis, impacting 7.8 and 7.4% of residents, respectively, while 71.0% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 14.2% of residents aged 65 and over (3,144 people), which is lower than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Minto - St Andrews is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Minto - St Andrews scores highly on cultural diversity, with 43.3% of its population born overseas and 47.9% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Minto - St Andrews is Christianity, which makes up 44.5% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Islam, which comprises 20.1% of the population, substantially higher than the Greater Sydney average of 6.8%.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Minto - St Andrews are Other, comprising 28.8% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 16.0%, Australian, comprising 17.4% of the population, and English, comprising 15.2% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Samoan is notably overrepresented at 3.0% of Minto - St Andrews (vs 0.5% regionally), Filipino at 4.0% (vs 2.0%) and Lebanese at 2.1% (vs 2.6%).

Minto - St Andrews's population is younger than the national pattern

Minto - St Andrews's median age of 35 years stands slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 as well as somewhat younger than the 38-year national average. The 5 - 14 age group shows strong representation at 15.1% compared to Greater Sydney, whereas the 25 - 34 cohort is less prevalent at 11.7%. In the period since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 2.9% to 4.2% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 12.5% to 13.7%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 13.6% to 11.7%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Minto - St Andrews. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to rise substantially, expanding by 684 people (74%) from 929 to 1,614. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 56% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 age groups will see reduced numbers.