Kearns

Kearns has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Kearns is around 2,678, a decrease of 15 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 2,693. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 2,634 in June 2025, based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 1 validated new address since the Census date. The population density ratio is 1,134 persons per square kilometer, roughly inline with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Natural growth contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. Population projections for Kearns are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former.

Looking ahead to 2041, Kearns is expected to increase by 130 persons, reflecting an increase of 3.2% over the 16 years, which is just below the median growth rate for statistical areas across the nation.

The level of residential development activity in Kearns is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Kearns has received around 9 dwelling approvals per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 47 homes. As of FY26, 9 approvals have been recorded. This suggests new supply is likely keeping up with demand in the area, which has experienced population decline, offering good choice to buyers. The average value of new properties constructed is $449,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments.

In FY26, $177,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting minimal commercial development activity. When compared to Greater Sydney, Kearns records roughly half the building activity per person and places among the 37th percentile of areas assessed nationally. This results in relatively constrained buyer choice, supporting interest in existing dwellings. This is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

New development in Kearns consists of 83.0% detached houses and 17.0% attached dwellings, maintaining its traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location has approximately 447 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. Future projections show Kearns adding 86 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Kearns has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects likely affecting this region: Emerald Hills Estate, Raby Road Upgrade, Stockland Lakeside - Gledswood Hills, and Rosemeadow Marketplace Expansion. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Kearns demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Kearns has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate was 3.5% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 6.8%.

The area's unemployment rate is below Greater Sydney's by 0.6%, standing at 4.2%. Workforce participation in Kearns is high, at 79.3% compared to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. According to Census responses, 30.7% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Manufacturing employment levels are notably high, at 1.6 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 4.8%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 6.8% while unemployment remained broadly flat. In Greater Sydney during the same period, employment rose by 2.2%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Kearns' employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Kearns had a median taxpayer income of $61,113 and an average income of $67,769 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. These figures are comparable to national averages, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $67,420 (median) and $74,763 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Kearns are around the 71st percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that 39.5% of residents (1,057 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, which is consistent with broader regional trends at 30.9%. High housing costs consume 15.5% of income in Kearns, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 75th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Kearns is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Kearns, as per the latest Census evaluation, 95.9% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 4.1% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. This contrasts with Sydney metro's composition of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kearns stood at 27.8%, closely matching Sydney metro's level. The majority of dwellings were mortgaged (57.1%) or rented (15.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,037, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure in Kearns was recorded at $420, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Kearns' mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kearns features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 85.2% of all households, including 48.0% couples with children, 21.9% couples without children, and 13.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 14.8%, with lone person households at 13.4% and group households making up 1.4% of total households. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Kearns fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 18.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them. Advanced diplomas account for 11.1% and certificates for 27.6%.

Educational participation is high at 28.4%, including 10.6% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Kearns shows that there are 15 active transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 14 individual routes providing service to the area. Together, these routes facilitate approximately 630 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Kearns is rated as excellent, with residents typically located about 170 meters from their nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential area, most residents commute outward for work or other purposes. Private cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 94% of residents.

On average, there are 1.9 vehicles per dwelling in Kearns, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a significant portion of residents, specifically 30.7%, work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages about 90 trips per day, equating to roughly 42 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kearns is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Kearns faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across the board but to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 54% of the total population (~1,438 people), leading that of the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Sydney's 59.9%. The most common medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, impacting 7.4 and 7.1% of residents respectively. 72.6% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 13.3% of residents aged 65 and over (356 people), lower than Greater Sydney's 15.5%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Kearns was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kearns' population showed higher overseas birth rates, with 24.8%, compared to most local markets. At home language other than English stood at 24.5%. Christianity was the dominant religion at 60.7%.

Islam's representation in Kearns was notably higher at 9.3% compared to Greater Sydney's 6.8%. Ancestry-wise, Australian (26.4%), English (20.7%), and Other (13.6%) were the top groups. Lebanese (2.9%), Maltese (2.0%), and Samoan (1.0%) ethnicities showed significant representation compared to regional averages.

Kearns's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Kearns's median age is nearly 36 years, closely matching Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, which is slightly below Australia's median age of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kearns has a higher percentage of residents aged 55-64 (12.4%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.9%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 75-84 has grown from 2.3% to 3.9%, while those aged 65-74 increased from 6.4% to 7.6%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 55-64 has declined from 14.3% to 12.4%, and those aged 25-34 have decreased from 13.3% to 11.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Kearns's age profile. The population aged 85+ is projected to grow by 209%, adding 100 residents to reach 149. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 68% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Conversely, the populations aged 25-34 and 65-74 are expected to decline.