Kearns

Kearns has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Kearns's population is estimated at around 2,704 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 11 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,693 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,657, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and an additional two validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,145 persons per square kilometer. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation is expected, with the suburb expected to increase by 164 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 6.1% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Kearns is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

From AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Kearns, it is estimated that around 11 dwellings have received development approval each year over the past five financial years ending June 2026. This totals an estimated 58 homes. By June 2026, four approvals had been recorded. The area has experienced population decline, suggesting new supply has likely kept up with demand, offering good choice to buyers.

New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $449,000, in line with regional trends. In the current financial year ending June 2026, approximately $1.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kearns records about 64% of the building activity per person and places among the 21st percentile of areas assessed nationally. This results in relatively constrained buyer choice, supporting interest in existing dwellings.

New building activity shows 80.0% standalone homes and 20.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns, which are currently 96.0% houses, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. Kearns reflects a highly mature market with around 771 people per dwelling approval. Looking ahead, Kearns is expected to grow by 166 residents through to 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Kearns has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. One major project has been pinpointed by AreaSearch as potentially impacting this region. Notable projects include Emerald Hills Estate, South West Rail Link Extension Study, Rosemeadow Marketplace Expansion, and Raby Road Upgrade, with the following list highlighting those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Kearns exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Kearns has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.9% as of June 2025, which is below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.3%. There were 1,622 residents employed in June 2025, with an unemployment rate 0.3% lower than Greater Sydney's. Workforce participation in Kearns was 67.2%, higher than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Manufacturing employment levels are particularly notable at 1.6 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 4.8% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparison. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.3%, labour force grew by 5.2%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points in Kearns. This contrasts with Greater Sydney where employment rose by 2.6%, labour force grew by 2.9%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. National employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 12.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kearns's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Kearns' median taxpayer income was $61,113 with an average of $67,769 according to latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2022. This is higher than national averages, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $68,819 (median) and $76,315 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Kearns cluster around the 71st percentile nationally. Distribution data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 39.5% of residents (1,068 people), consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 30.9% in the same category. High housing costs consume 15.5% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 75th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Kearns is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Kearns, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.9% houses and 4.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 78.5% houses and 21.5% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Kearns was 27.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 57.1% and rented ones at 15.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,037, below Sydney metro's average of $2,100. The median weekly rent figure for Kearns was $420, compared to Sydney metro's $380. Nationally, Kearns's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kearns features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 85.2% of all households, including 48.0% couples with children, 21.9% couples without children, and 13.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 14.8%, with lone person households at 13.4% and group households making up 1.4%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.9.

Educational outcomes in Kearns fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 18.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.1%) and certificates (27.6%).

Educational participation is high at 28.4%, comprising primary education (10.6%), secondary education (8.2%), and tertiary education (4.1%). Kearns Public School serves the area with an enrollment of 163 students, offering balanced educational opportunities typical of Australian schools (ICSEA: 983). The school focuses on primary education; secondary options are available nearby. Local school capacity is limited at 6.0 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 17.1, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of public transport in Kearns indicates 15 active transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with 13 individual routes providing service. Collectively, these routes facilitate 552 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 170 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 78 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 36 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Kearns is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Kearns demonstrates above-average health outcomes with a low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population compared to national averages. However, this prevalence is higher among older, at-risk cohorts.

Approximately 54% of Kearns' total population (~1,452 people) has private health cover, which is higher than the 49.3% found across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and arthritis, impacting 7.4% and 7.1% of residents respectively. A total of 72.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 70.3% across Greater Sydney. Kearns has 12.0% of its residents aged 65 and over (324 people), which is lower than the 14.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges requiring more attention than the broader population.

Kearns was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kearns was found to have a higher level of cultural diversity than most local markets, with 24.8% of its population born overseas and 24.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Kearns, comprising 60.7% of the population. However, Islam is notably overrepresented, making up 9.3% of Kearns' population compared to 12.5% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry, Australian is the most represented group at 26.4%, which is higher than the regional average of 20.0%. English follows with 20.7%, and Other represents 13.6%, lower than the regional average of 21.6%. Notably, Lebanese are overrepresented at 2.9% compared to the regional average of 1.9%, Maltese at 2.0% versus 0.8%, and Samoan at 1.0% compared to 2.4%.

Kearns's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

At age 36 years, Kearns's median age is nearly matching Greater Sydney's average of 37 years. This figure is modestly under the Australian median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kearns has a higher concentration of residents aged 55-64 years (12.7%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 years (12.0%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the population aged 75-84 years has grown from 2.3% to 3.6%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 55-64 years has declined from 14.3% to 12.7%, and the percentage of residents aged 25-34 years has dropped from 13.3% to 12.0%. Demographic modeling suggests that Kearns's age profile will evolve significantly by the year 2041. The population aged 85+ is projected to grow by 282%, adding 114 residents to reach a total of 155. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 68% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, the populations aged 25-34 years and 15-24 years are projected to experience declines.