Kearns

Kearns has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Kearns is around 2,709, reflecting a growth of 16 people since the 2021 Census figure of 2,693. This increase is inferred from AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024. The population density stands at 1,147 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Natural growth contributed approximately 65% of overall population gains during recent periods. Population projections for Kearns are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia aggregations released in 2024 with a 2022 base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a 2021 base year for areas not covered by the former data.

By 2041, Kearns is projected to increase its population by 161 persons, reflecting an overall increase of approximately 5.1% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Kearns is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Kearns has received approximately 9 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 47 homes. As of FY26, 7 approvals have been recorded. The area's population decline suggests new supply is meeting demand, offering buyers good choice. Average construction value for new properties is $449,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments.

This financial year has seen $177,000 in commercial approvals, suggesting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kearns records roughly half the building activity per person and ranks at the 37th percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. This reflects the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New development consists of 83.0% detached houses and 17.0% attached dwellings, maintaining Kearns' traditional suburban character focused on family homes.

The location has approximately 449 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Kearns is projected to add 137 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Kearns has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely impacting this region: Emerald Hills Estate, South West Rail Link Extension Study, Rosemeadow Marketplace Expansion, and Raby Road Upgrade are key projects, with the following list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Kearns exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Kearns has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented. The unemployment rate in the area was 3.8% as of December 2025. This rate is 0.4% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 7.6%, according to AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, there were 1,663 residents in work and the workforce participation rate was 79.7%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. Census responses indicated that 30.7% of residents worked from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction sectors.

Manufacturing employment levels are particularly notable at 1.6 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical employment shows lower representation at 4.8%, compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 7.6% and labour force grew by 7.6%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. In Greater Sydney during the same period, employment rose by 2.2%, the labour force grew by 2.3%, and unemployment rose marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Kearns. These projections estimate national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Kearns' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income in Kearns is $61,113, with an average of $67,769, according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is comparable to national averages, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $66,528 (median) and $73,773 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Kearns cluster around the 71st percentile nationally. The income distribution shows that 39.5% of residents (1,070 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, consistent with broader regional trends showing 30.9% in the same category. Housing costs consume 15.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 75th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Kearns is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Kearns, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, consisted of 95.9% houses and 4.1% other dwellings including semi-detached properties, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Sydney metropolitan area's structure which was 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kearns stood at 27.8%, similar to the Sydney metro level, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (57.1%) or rented (15.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Kearns was $2,037, below the Sydney metro average of $2,427, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $420, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Kearns's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, as reported in the 2017 Housing Industry Association figures, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kearns features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 85.2% of all households, including 48.0% couples with children, 21.9% couples without children, and 13.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 14.8%, with lone person households at 13.4% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Kearns fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 18.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both challenges and opportunities for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.1%) and certificates (27.6%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 15 active transport stops in Kearns, all bus stops. These are served by 14 routes offering a total of 630 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 170 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature; cars remain dominant at 94%. Average vehicle ownership is 1.9 per dwelling, above the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 30.7% of residents work from home, potentially reflecting COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 90 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 42 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Kearns is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Kearns faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high for common health conditions across all age cohorts, but particularly so among older residents.

Private health cover is more prevalent in Kearns at approximately 54% of the total population (~1,455 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 7.4% and 7.1% of residents respectively. However, 72.6% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 13.3% of residents aged 65 and over (360 people), lower than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, ranking lower nationally compared to the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Kearns was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kearns, surveyed in June 2016, had a higher overseas-born population of 24.8%, compared to the local average. In terms of language spoken at home, Kearns' 24.5% was also higher than regional figures. Christianity dominated Kearns' religious landscape with 60.7%.

Islam was overrepresented in Kearns at 9.3%, higher than Greater Sydney's 6.8%. Ancestry-wise, Australian (26.4%) and English (20.7%) were the top two groups, both higher than regional averages of 17.8% and 15.6% respectively. Other ancestry made up 13.6% of Kearns' population. Notably, Lebanese (2.9%), Maltese (2.0%), and Samoan (1.0%) ethnic groups were overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Kearns's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Kearns's median age is nearly 36 years, closely matching Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, which is slightly below the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kearns has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.5%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.9%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 75-84 has grown from 2.3% to 4.1%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 55-64 has declined from 14.3% to 12.5%, and the proportion of those aged 25-34 has dropped from 13.3% to 11.9%. Demographic modeling indicates significant changes in Kearns's age profile by 2041. The cohort aged 85+ is projected to grow strongly at a rate of 214%, adding 104 residents to reach 153. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 67% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Conversely, the cohorts aged 65-74 and 25-34 are expected to experience population declines.