Kearns

Kearns has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on analysis of ABS population updates, as of Nov 2025, Kearns' estimated population is around 2,729. This reflects an increase of 36 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,693. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 2,682 in Jun 2024 and two validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,156 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Natural growth contributed approximately 65% of overall population gains during recent periods.

Population projections indicate a median increase for statistical areas nationally, with Kearns expected to increase by 165 persons to 2041, reflecting a 5.2% total increase over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Kearns is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch analysis, Kearns has received approximately 9 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 46 homes. In FY26 so far, 9 approvals have been recorded. The area's population decline suggests new supply is meeting demand, offering buyers good choice. Average construction cost for new properties is $449,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating focus on quality developments.

This year, $177,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kearns records roughly half the building activity per person and ranks among the 37th percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. This is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New development consists of 80% detached houses and 20% attached dwellings, maintaining Kearns' traditional suburban character with focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space, marking a significant departure from current housing patterns which are predominantly houses (96%). With around 450 people per dwelling approval, Kearns shows a developed market.

Future projections estimate Kearns will add 142 residents by 2041 based on AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Kearns has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified one major project likely impacting the region: Emerald Hills Estate, South West Rail Link Extension Study, Rosemeadow Marketplace Expansion, and Raby Road Upgrade are key projects. The following details projects most relevant to the area.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment environment in Kearns shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Kearns has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominently represented. Its unemployment rate is 4.0%, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

In the year ending September 2025, employment grew by an estimated 5.6%. As of that date, 1,626 residents are employed, with a workforce participation rate of 67.2%, higher than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Manufacturing stands out with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 4.8% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. In the 12 months prior, employment increased by 5.6%, while labour force grew by 5.5%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 4.0%. This contrasts with Greater Sydney where employment rose by 2.1%, labour force grew by 2.4%, and unemployment rose to 4.4%. State-level data as of 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%, lower than the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kearns's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income in Kearns is $61,113, with an average of $67,769, based on the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is comparable to national averages, unlike Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. By September 2025, estimates suggest a median income of approximately $66,528 and an average income of around $73,773, factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Kearns cluster around the 71st percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that 39.5% of residents (1,077 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, which is consistent with broader trends across regional levels at 30.9%. Housing costs consume 15.5% of income in Kearns, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 75th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Kearns is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kearns' dwelling structures, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 95.9% houses and 4.1% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This contrasts with Sydney metro's structure of 78.5% houses and 21.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kearns stood at 27.8%, with mortgaged properties at 57.1% and rented dwellings at 15.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,037, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,100. Weekly rent in Kearns was recorded at $420, compared to Sydney metro's $380. Nationally, Kearns' mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially higher than the national figure of $375.

Kearns features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 85.2% of all households, including 48.0% couples with children, 21.9% couples without children, and 13.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 14.8%, with lone person households at 13.4% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.9.

Educational outcomes in Kearns fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 18.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15+, with 38.7% holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.1%) and certificates (27.6%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.6% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 15 active public transport stops in Kearns. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totaling 14 individual routes. Combined, these routes facilitate 630 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents on average located 170 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 90 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 42 weekly trips per stop.

The level of general health in Kearns is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Kearns demonstrates above-average health outcomes with a low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population compared to national averages. However, older and at-risk cohorts show higher rates than the nation's average.

Approximately 54% (~1,466 people) of Kearns' total population has private health cover, slightly leading the average SA2 area which is 50.5%. The most common medical conditions are asthma (7.4%) and arthritis (7.1%), while 72.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 70.3% across Greater Sydney. Kearns has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 12.0% (327 people) than Greater Sydney's 14.4%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Kearns was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kearns, surveyed in June 2021, had a higher overseas-born population of 24.8%, compared to the local average. Similarly, 24.5% spoke languages other than English at home, exceeding the regional figure. Christianity was dominant with 60.7%.

Islam's representation stood at 9.3%, higher than Greater Sydney's 12.5%. Ancestry-wise, Australian parents accounted for 26.4%, English for 20.7%, and Other for 13.6%. Notably, Lebanese ancestry was overrepresented at 2.9% (regional average: 1.9%), Maltese at 2.0% (0.8%), and Samoan at 1.0% (2.4%).

Kearns's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Kearns's median age is nearly 36 years, close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 but slightly below Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kearns has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.7%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.0%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 75-84 has grown from 2.3% to 3.6%. Meanwhile, the proportion of residents aged 55-64 has decreased from 14.3% to 12.7%, and those aged 25-34 have dropped from 13.3% to 12.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Kearns's age profile will change significantly. The population aged 85+ is projected to grow by 281%, adding 115 residents to reach 156. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 70% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Conversely, the populations aged 25-34 and 15-24 are projected to decline.