Mansfield (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Mansfield are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census Mansfield's population is estimated at around 6412 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 871 people (15.7%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5541 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 5772 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 188 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 23 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person for Mansfield (Vic.) statistical area (Lv2). Mansfield's growth of 15.7% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region's 6.8%, along with the non-metro area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to this methodology, the area's population is expected to reduce by 298 persons by 2041. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 25 to 34 age group, projected to grow by 101 people.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Mansfield among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Mansfield has around 45 residential properties granted approval each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 228 homes were approved, with an additional 24 so far in FY-26. This results in an average of 3.3 new residents per year for every home built during this period.

The demand significantly outpaces supply, which typically puts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among buyers. New homes are being built at an average value of $637,000, indicating that developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, $9.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting balanced commercial development activity in Mansfield.

Compared to the rest of Victoria, Mansfield shows comparable new home approvals per person, preserving market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas. The new building activity comprises 92.0% detached dwellings and 8.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 163 people per dwelling approval, Mansfield exhibits characteristics of a growth area. However, with population expected to remain stable or decline, there should be reduced pressure on housing in the future, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Mansfield has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified six projects likely influencing the area. Notable projects are Mansfield District Hospital Residential Aged Care Development, Mansfield Common, Mansfield Station Precinct Activation Project, and Alpine Estate Mansfield. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 2.8%, Mansfield has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Mansfield's workforce is skilled and diverse. As of September 2025, its unemployment rate was 2.8%.

This rate is 0.9% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%, with a similar workforce participation rate of 57.4%. Key sectors for employment in Mansfield are construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance. Notably, accommodation & food services have high employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average. However, health care & social assistance has limited presence with 11.2% employment compared to the regional average of 16.8%.

The labour force decreased by 1.3% year-on-year to September 2025, while employment fell by 2.2%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.9 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov shows VIC's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts suggest a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mansfield's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.6% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023, Mansfield had a median income among taxpayers of $45,222. The average income stood at $61,230. This was below the national average and compared to levels of $50,954 and $62,728 across Rest of Vic., respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ending June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $48,953 (median) and $66,281 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals personal income ranks at the 40th percentile ($758 weekly), while household income sits at the 24th percentile. The majority, 30.7%, earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (1,968 residents). After housing costs, 85.7% of income remains. This ranks at only the 27th percentile nationally. Mansfield's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Mansfield is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Mansfield, as per the latest Census evaluation, 93.0% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 7.0% being other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic had 93.6% houses and 6.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mansfield stood at 45.4%, similar to Non-Metro Vic., with the rest being mortgaged (32.7%) or rented (21.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,603, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,500. The median weekly rent in Mansfield was $331, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $280. Nationally, Mansfield's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,603 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were also lower at $331 compared to the national figure of $375.

Mansfield features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 67.9 percent of all households, including 24.0 percent couples with children, 33.5 percent couples without children, and 9.7 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.1 percent, with lone person households at 30.2 percent and group households comprising 2.1 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Vic.

The educational profile of Mansfield exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate was 20.9%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees were the most common at 14.4%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.5%) and postgraduate qualifications (3.0%). Vocational credentials were held by 42.4% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 12.7% and certificates at 29.7%. Educational participation was high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 11.2% in primary, 7.3% in secondary, and 2.2% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.2% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 2.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows two active public transport stops in Mansfield, both offering bus services. These stops are served by two distinct routes, together offering 26 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is rated as limited, with residents typically located 1160 meters from the nearest stop.

Services run on average three times daily across all routes, equating to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Mansfield is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Mansfield faces significant health challenges with common health conditions being somewhat prevalent among both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population, which amounts to around 3,275 people. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 9.4% and 7.7% of residents respectively. Conversely, 66.3% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.0% across the Rest of Vic. As of a recent report (25/11/20XX), 25.4% of Mansfield's residents are aged 65 and over, totaling approximately 1,628 people.

Mansfield is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Mansfield's population was predominantly born in Australia, with 88.7%. 90.9% were citizens and 95.6% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the primary religion, practised by 46.5%.

Judaism was slightly overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to 0.1% regionally. The top three ancestry groups were English (31.5%), Australian (29.7%), and Irish (11.3%). Scottish ancestry was notably higher in Mansfield at 10.0% versus 9.1% regionally, Dutch at 1.8% versus 1.5%, and German at 3.9% versus 3.4%.

Mansfield hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Mansfield's median age is 46, which is higher than Victoria's figure of 43 and significantly greater than Australia's norm of 38. The proportion of people aged 85 and above in Mansfield is strong at 3.5%, compared to the Rest of Victoria. Conversely, the 15-24 age group is less prevalent in Mansfield at 10.1%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15-24 age group has grown from 7.7% to 10.1%, while the 25-34 cohort increased from 9.7% to 10.8%. However, the 55-64 age group has declined from 15.0% to 13.0%. By 2041, Mansfield's age composition is expected to undergo notable shifts. The 85+ group is projected to grow by 31%, reaching 293 people from the current figure of 224. This growth will be led by the aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising 81% of the projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 35-44 and 45-54 age groups.