Mansfield (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Mansfield are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Mansfield's population is estimated at around 6412 as of February 2026. This reflects an increase of 871 people (15.7%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5541 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 5772 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 191 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 23 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person for the suburb of Mansfield (Vic.). Mansfield's 15.7% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (6.9%), along with the Rest of Vic., marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, over this period projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the area's population expected to reduce by 316 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 25 to 34 age group, which is projected to grow by 91 people.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Mansfield among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data indicates Mansfield has averaged around 45 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 225 homes were approved, with a further 24 approved so far in FY-26. This analysis estimates an average of 3.3 new residents per year arriving per dwelling constructed over these five financial years.

Supply is substantially lagging demand, indicating heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $637,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This financial year has seen $9.6 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating steady commercial investment activity.

Compared to Rest of Vic., Mansfield has similar development levels per person, supporting market stability aligned with regional patterns. Recent construction comprises 93.0% detached dwellings and 7.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 163 people per dwelling approval, Mansfield shows characteristics of a growth area. However, population projections indicating stability or decline should reduce housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Mansfield has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified six projects likely to impact the region. Notable initiatives include Mansfield District Hospital Residential Aged Care Development, Mansfield Common, Mansfield Station Precinct Activation Project, and Alpine Estate Mansfield. The following details projects expected to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Mansfield has been broadly consistent with national averages

Mansfield has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 2.9%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data as of December 2025. In this month, 2,820 residents were employed, which is 0.8% below Regional Vic.'s unemployment rate of 3.7%. The workforce participation rate was similar to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%.

Census responses showed that 14.4% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment in Mansfield is concentrated in construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance sectors. Notably, accommodation & food services have employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average. However, health care & social assistance is under-represented, with only 11.2% of Mansfield's workforce compared to Regional Vic.'s 16.8%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 3.6%, and employment declined by 4.5% in Mansfield, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.0 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional Vic., where employment contracted by 0.6%, the labour force fell by 0.7%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer further insight into potential future demand within Mansfield. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Mansfield's employment mix suggests that local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Mansfield had a median income among taxpayers of $45,222 and an average level of $61,230. This is lower than the national average, which was $50,954 (median) and $62,728 (average) for Regional Vic. respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ended June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $48,953 (median) and $66,281 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, personal income ranks at the 40th percentile ($758 weekly), while household income sits at the 24th percentile. Income analysis reveals that 30.7% of locals (1,968 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, similar to the surrounding region where 30.3% occupy this category. After housing expenses, 85.7% of income remains, ranking at the 27th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Mansfield is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Mansfield, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 93.0% houses and 7.0% other dwellings. In comparison, Regional Vic.'s dwelling structure was 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mansfield was 45.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.7% and rented dwellings at 21.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Mansfield was $1,603, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430. The median weekly rent figure in Mansfield was $331, while in Regional Vic., it was $285. Nationally, Mansfield's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Mansfield features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.9% of all households, including 24.0% couples with children, 33.5% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.1%, with lone person households at 30.2% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Regional Vic average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Mansfield exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 20.9%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.4%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.5%) and postgraduate qualifications (3.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (29.7%). Educational participation is high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 11.2% in primary, 7.3% in secondary, and 2.2% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.2% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 2.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mansfield has two active public transport stops. These are served by two different routes, offering a total of 26 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically living 1160 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Car use dominates at 89%, while 8% walk. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 14.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages three trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Mansfield is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Mansfield shows above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average for older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 51% (~3,275 people) of Mansfield's total population has private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (9.4%) and mental health issues (7.7%), while 66.3% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Regional Victoria. Health outcomes for the under-65 population are better than average. Mansfield has 25.5% (1,635 people) of its residents aged 65 and over, higher than the 23.9% in Regional Victoria but ranking lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Mansfield is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Mansfield's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.7% of its population born in Australia, 90.9% being citizens, and 95.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Mansfield, comprising 46.5% of people. Judaism was overrepresented, making up 0.1% of Mansfield's population compared to Regional Vic's 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (31.5%), Australian (29.7%), and Irish (11.3%). Notably, Scottish (10.0%) and Dutch (1.8%) were overrepresented in Mansfield compared to regional averages of 8.8% and 1.7%, respectively. German ancestry was also slightly overrepresented at 3.9%.

Mansfield hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Mansfield's median age is 46, which is slightly higher than Regional Vic.'s figure of 43 and significantly greater than the national norm of 38. The proportion of people aged 85 and above stands at 3.7%, compared to Regional Vic., while those aged 15 to 24 comprise 10.3%. Post-2021 Census data indicates that the 15 to 24 age group grew from 7.7% to 10.3%, and the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 9.7% to 11.4%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 age group declined from 15.0% to 12.4%, and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 13.5% to 12.1%. By 2041, Mansfield's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 85+ group is projected to grow by 29%, reaching 305 from 237. This growth will be driven entirely by the aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising all of the projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 25 to 34 age cohorts.