Kelso (Qld)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kelso reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, Kelso's population is estimated at around 11,105. This reflects an increase of 506 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,599. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population as 11,101 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in Jun 2024, and an additional 99 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 646 persons per square kilometer. Kelso's growth rate of 4.8% since census positions it within 2.3 percentage points of the SA4 region's 7.1%, demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth was primarily driven by natural growth, contributing approximately 80.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, based on 2021 data and released in 2023. These state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort, released in 2023 based on 2022 data. Moving forward, an above median population growth of non-metropolitan areas nationally is projected. The suburb of Kelso (Qld) is expected to increase by 1,600 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 14.6% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kelso according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Kelso has recorded around 18 residential properties granted approval each year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 94 homes. So far in FY-26, 17 approvals have been recorded. On average, 3.6 new residents arrive per dwelling constructed annually between FY-21 and FY-25.

Demand significantly exceeds new supply, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $361,000. This financial year has seen $395,000 in commercial development approvals, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Kelso shows substantially reduced construction, 59.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties.

The area's development level is also below national average, suggesting possible planning constraints. New development consists of 90.0% standalone homes and 10.0% attached dwellings, maintaining Kelso's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 962 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections estimate Kelso adding 1,621 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Kelso has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects that may influence this region. Notable ones are River Parks Estate, Riverway Plaza Stage 2 Extension, Pinnacle Views Estate, and Riverstone Estate. The following details the most relevant projects.

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Employment drivers in Kelso are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Kelso has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate is 7.2%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, 5123 residents are employed, while the unemployment rate stands at 3.1% higher than Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%.

Workforce participation in Kelso is lower at 62.7%, compared to Rest of Qld's 65.7%. Census responses show that only 4.3% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Kelso has a particular specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 0.7% compared to the regional average of 4.5%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the ratio of Census working population to resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels increased by 0.3%, but employment declined by 0.7%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Qld recorded employment growth of 1.7% and labour force growth of 2.1%, with an unemployment increase of only 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Kelso's employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections against the local employment mix.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Kelso has a median taxpayer income of $52,761 and an average income of $59,108 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages, with Rest of Qld's median income being $53,146 and average income $66,593. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $57,990 (median) and $64,966 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Kelso's household, family, and personal incomes rank modestly, between the 42nd and 44th percentiles. Income analysis shows that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 38.1% of residents (4,231 people), similar to regional levels where this cohort represents 31.7%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Kelso, with only 84.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 44th percentile.

Kelso is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Kelso, as per the latest Census, was 98.0% houses and 1.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro Qld's 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kelso stood at 23.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.7% and rented ones at 32.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,496, below Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,655. The median weekly rent figure in Kelso was $300, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $345. Nationally, Kelso's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Kelso features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 78.5% of all households, including 32.0% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 18.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 21.5%, with lone person households at 18.3% and group households at 3.0%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Rest of Qld average of 2.5.

Kelso faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.1%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.7%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.8%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (34.0%). Educational participation is high, with 34.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 14.1% in primary, 10.4% in secondary, and 3.5% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 34.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 14.1% in primary education, 10.4% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Kelso shows that there are currently 16 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 241 weekly passenger trips provided collectively by these services. The accessibility of these transport options is rated as limited, with residents typically located 687 meters away from the nearest stop. Kelso is primarily residential, and most residents commute outward. Cars remain the dominant mode of transportation in the area at a rate of 94%. On average, there are 1.7 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 4.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 34 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 15 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kelso is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Kelso faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A variety of health conditions impact both younger and older age groups, with private health cover found to be relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (around 5,622 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues affecting 11.1% of residents and arthritis impacting 8.8%, while 64.2% report no medical ailments, compared to 67.6% in the rest of Queensland. Working-age individuals face notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 13.6% of residents aged 65 and over (1,510 people), lower than the 20.4% in the rest of Queensland. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Kelso is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Kelso had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 88.4% of its residents being citizens, 90.6% born in Australia, and 95.5% speaking English exclusively at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Kelso, accounting for 51.4% of the population, compared to 52.2% across the rest of Queensland. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (29.3%), English (27.8%), and Australian Aboriginal (8.6%).

Notably, Samoan ethnicity was overrepresented in Kelso at 0.2%, compared to the regional average of 0.2%. Similarly, German ethnicity stood at 3.9% versus a regional average of 4.7%, and Maori ethnicity was recorded at 0.5% compared to 0.8% regionally.

Kelso hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

The median age in Kelso is 34 years, which is lower than the average for Rest of Qld at 41 years and also lower than the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Qld, Kelso has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (14.8%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (8.2%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 25-34 has increased from 12.6% to 15.1%, while the 75-84 age group has grown from 3.2% to 4.4%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 17.1% to 14.0%, and the 45-54 age group has dropped from 13.4% to 12.1%. By the year 2041, Kelso's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 29% (an increase of 484 people), reaching a total of 2,161 from the current figure of 1,676. Meanwhile, both the 5-14 and 15-24 age groups are expected to decrease in number.