Chapel Hill (Qld)

Chapel Hill is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Chapel Hill's population is estimated at approximately 10,996 as of May 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 485 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,511. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population being 10,947 in June 2025, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 30 validated new addresses since the Census date. This equates to a density ratio of 2,181 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Chapel Hill's growth rate of 4.6% since the census positions it close to the SA3 area's growth rate of 5.5%. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are used, with proportional growth weightings applied for age cohorts. Projections indicate a decline in overall population by 302 persons by 2041, but growth is anticipated for specific age cohorts, notably the 85 and over group expected to grow by 305 people.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Chapel Hill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Chapel Hill has recorded approximately 20 residential properties granted approval per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 101 homes were approved, with a further 9 approved in FY-26 to date. On average, each home built over the past five financial years accommodates about 3 new residents annually.

This supply is significantly lagging demand, indicating heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. The average construction value of new homes is $697,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, $10.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, signifying balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Chapel Hill shows approximately 61% of the construction activity per person. Nationally, it ranks among the 41st percentile of areas assessed, indicating limited housing choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing dwellings.

However, building activity has accelerated in recent years, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent construction comprises 73.0% standalone homes and 27.0% medium to high-density housing, preserving the area's suburban nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. This represents a significant shift from the current housing mix of 98.0% houses, likely due to reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands. Chapel Hill has approximately 396 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. Given stable or declining population forecasts, it may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Chapel Hill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of a region is significantly impacted by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified six projects that are expected to influence this area. Notable projects include Woodlands Residences, 2172 Moggill Road Townhouses, Mount Coot-tha Precinct Upgrades, and Centa Property Group Lambert Road Development. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Chapel Hill demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Chapel Hill has a highly educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate is 2.4%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data as of December 2025. There are 5,575 residents employed, with an unemployment rate 1.8% lower than Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.1%.

Workforce participation stands at 64.6%, compared to Greater Brisbane's 69.6%. Census responses indicate that 38.5% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training sectors. Chapel Hill has a particularly strong specialization in professional & technical services, with an employment share 2.1 times the regional level.

Conversely, construction employment is limited at 5.2%, compared to 9.0% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as suggested by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 3.3%, alongside a 2.7% employment decline, causing unemployment to fall by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Brisbane saw employment grow by 3.2%, with labour force expanding by 3.0% and unemployment falling by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insight into potential future demand within Chapel Hill. These projections suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth rates varying significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Chapel Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.4% over five years and 15.0% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023 indicates median income among taxpayers in Chapel Hill was $66,927. The average income stood at $111,218. Nationally, these figures are exceptionally high compared to the broader Greater Brisbane area's median of $58,236 and average of $72,799. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.36% from financial year ending June 2023 to March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $74,530 (median) and $123,852 (average). Census 2021 income data ranks Chapel Hill's household, family, and personal incomes highly, between the 85th and 96th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows 34.2% of residents earn $4,000 or more weekly, with a total of 3,760 individuals in this category, differing from the broader area where 33.3% fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 range. Notably, 49.8% of Chapel Hill residents earn over $3,000 weekly, supporting premium retail and service offerings. After housing costs, residents retain 89.3% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Chapel Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Chapel Hill's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 97.7% houses and 2.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Brisbane metro's 77.5% houses and 22.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Chapel Hill stood at 43.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.0% and rented ones at 13.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,427, higher than Brisbane metro's average of $1,863. Weekly rent median in Chapel Hill was $555, compared to Brisbane metro's $380. Nationally, Chapel Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Chapel Hill features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 84.7% of all households, consisting of 47.1% couples with children, 28.8% couples without children, and 7.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 15.3%, with lone person households at 12.8% and group households comprising 2.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Chapel Hill demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Chapel Hill's residents aged 15 and above have a higher educational attainment than broader figures: 57.9%, compared to Queensland's 25.7% and Australia's 30.4%. This is particularly notable in bachelor degrees (33.0%), postgraduate qualifications (19.4%), and graduate diplomas (5.5%). Vocational pathways make up 18.6% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 9.1% and certificates at 9.5%. Educational participation is high, with 32.6% currently enrolled in formal education: 10.9% in primary, 9.6% in secondary, and 7.7% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.9% in primary education, 9.6% in secondary education, and 7.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Chapel Hill has 44 active public transport stops serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are covered by 13 different routes, offering 1,377 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents on average located 194 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Chapel Hill's primarily residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 81%, followed by bus at 8% and cycling at 3%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 38.5% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 196 trips per day, equating to approximately 31 weekly trips per individual stop.

Chapel Hill's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Chapel Hill's health outcomes show notable results based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are low, especially among younger cohorts. Approximately 71% of Chapel Hill's total population (7,835 people) has private health cover, compared to Greater Brisbane's 55.8%.

Nationally, the average is 55.7%. Mental health issues and arthritis were found to be the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 6.5% and 6.4% of residents respectively. A total of 73.9% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Brisbane's 69.2%. The area has 19.9% of residents aged 65 and over (2,188 people), which is higher than Greater Brisbane's 15.1%. While health outcomes among seniors are strong, they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Chapel Hill was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Chapel Hill was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 23.7% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 36.5% born overseas. Christianity is the main religion in Chapel Hill, comprising 48.3%. However, Judaism is overrepresented, making up 0.6%, compared to 0.1% across Greater Brisbane.

The top three ancestry groups are English (25.6%), Australian (20.2%), and Other (10.5%). Notably, South Australian (1.6%) Korean (1.0%) and Sri Lankan (0.7%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.6%, 0.5% and 0.2% respectively.

Chapel Hill's median age exceeds the national pattern

Chapel Hill's median age is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Brisbane's average of 36 and Australia's median of 38. The 45-54 cohort is notably over-represented at 15.9% compared to Greater Brisbane's average, while the 25-34 cohort is under-represented at 6.6%. Post-2021 Census, the 15-24 age group grew from 11.7% to 15.3%, and the 75-84 cohort increased from 5.8% to 7.6%. Conversely, the 35-44 cohort declined from 14.1% to 12.5%, and the 65-74 group dropped from 11.4% to 10.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Chapel Hill's age profile. The 85+ cohort is expected to grow by 115%, adding 279 residents to reach 521. Residents aged 65 and older are projected to represent 83% of the population growth, while declines are anticipated for the 15-24 and 0-4 cohorts.