Chapel Hill (Qld)

Chapel Hill is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Chapel Hill's population is estimated at 10,954 as of Feb 2026, reflecting a growth of 443 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 4.2% rise from the previous population figure of 10,511. AreaSearch's analysis of ERP data released by ABS in June 2024 and validation of new addresses indicates this estimate is accurate. The suburb has a population density of 2,173 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Chapel Hill's growth rate since the census is 4.2%, close to the SA3 area's growth of 6.1%. Overseas migration was the primary driver for this growth.

For projections post-2032 and areas not covered by ABS data, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are used with proportional growth weightings applied where necessary. By 2041, the suburb's population is projected to decrease by 279 persons overall, but specific age cohorts like those aged 85 and over are expected to grow, with an anticipated increase of 335 people in this group.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Chapel Hill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Chapel Hill recorded around 20 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 101 homes were approved, with a further 8 approved in FY-26. This averages out to about 3 new residents per home built annually over these years.

However, demand is substantially outstripping supply, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. The average value of new homes being built is $697,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In terms of commercial development, Chapel Hill has registered $10.6 million in approvals this financial year, suggesting balanced activity relative to Greater Brisbane. Nationally, Chapel Hill places around the 41st percentile of areas assessed, indicating more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing dwellings. Building activity has accelerated in recent years but remains lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints.

Recent construction comprises 73.0% standalone homes and 27.0% medium to high-density housing, preserving Chapel Hill's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. This represents a significant shift from the current housing mix, which is currently 98.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Chapel Hill has approximately 396 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area with stable or declining population forecasts. Consequently, it may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Chapel Hill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

AreaSearch has identified six projects that could impact the area, with key ones being Woodlands Residences, 2172 Moggill Road Townhouses, Mount Coot-tha Precinct Upgrades, and Centa Property Group Lambert Road Development. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Chapel Hill ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Chapel Hill has a highly educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate was 2.1% as of September 2025, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. In that month, 5610 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.9% lower than Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.0%.

Workforce participation lagged significantly at 65.0%, compared to Greater Brisbane's 70.7%. Census responses indicated that 38.5% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment among residents was concentrated in professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training sectors. The area showed particularly strong specialization in professional & technical services with an employment share of 2.1 times the regional level.

Meanwhile, construction had limited presence with 5.2% employment compared to 9.0% regionally. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 3.8%, alongside a 2.8% employment decline, causing unemployment to fall by 1.0 percentage points. This contrasted with Greater Brisbane where employment grew by 3.8%, labour force expanded by 3.3%, and unemployment fell 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggested that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Chapel Hill's employment mix indicated potential local employment increases of 7.4% over five years and 15.0% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released on June 30, 2023, Chapel Hill had a median income among taxpayers of $66,927 and an average income of $111,218. Nationally, these figures are exceptionally high, compared to the Greater Brisbane levels of $58,236 and $72,799 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since June 30, 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $73,559 (median) and $122,240 (average). According to Census 2021 data, Chapel Hill's household, family, and personal incomes rank highly nationally, between the 85th and 96th percentiles. Income analysis shows that the largest segment in Chapel Hill comprises 34.2% earning $4000+ weekly (3,746 residents), unlike the broader area where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 33.3%. The area demonstrates significant affluence with 49.8% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. After housing costs, residents retain 89.3% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power. Chapel Hill's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Chapel Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Chapel Hill's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 97.7% houses and 2.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Brisbane metro had a different composition with 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Chapel Hill stood at 43.2%, with the rest being mortgaged (43.0%) or rented (13.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,427, higher than Brisbane metro's average of $1,863. The median weekly rent was recorded as $555, compared to Brisbane metro's $380. Nationally, Chapel Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Chapel Hill features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 84.7% of all households, including 47.1% couples with children, 28.8% couples without children, and 7.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 15.3%, with lone person households at 12.8% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Chapel Hill demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Chapel Hill's educational attainment exceeds broader standards, with 57.9% of residents aged 15+ possessing university qualifications compared to Queensland's 25.7% and Australia's 30.4%. This notable educational edge positions the area favourably for knowledge-based prospects. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 33.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (19.4%) and graduate diplomas (5.5%). Vocational pathways comprise 18.6% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas accounting for 9.1% and certificates for 9.5%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.9% in primary, 9.6% in secondary, and 7.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Chapel Hill has 44 active public transport stops serving a mix of bus routes. These are operated by 13 different routes, collectively providing 1,377 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents' homes to the nearest stop is 194 meters, indicating excellent transport accessibility. In this primarily residential area, most commutes are outward-bound. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 81%, with bus at 8% and cycling at 3%. On average, there are 1.7 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 38.5% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 196 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 31 weekly trips per individual stop.

Chapel Hill's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results in Chapel Hill. AreaSearch's assessment indicates low mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence, especially among younger cohorts. Approximately 71% of Chapel Hill residents have private health cover, compared to 55.8% in Greater Brisbane and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent conditions are mental health issues (6.5%) and arthritis (6.4%). About 73.9% of residents report no medical ailments, higher than the 69.2% in Greater Brisbane. Chapel Hill has 20.6% of residents aged 65 and over (2,256 people), higher than Greater Brisbane's 15.2%. While health outcomes among seniors are strong, they rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Chapel Hill was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Chapel Hill's population, as per the latest data from 2016, showed higher cultural diversity compared to most local markets. Specifically, 23.7% of its residents spoke a language other than English at home, and 36.5% were born overseas. Christianity was found to be the predominant religion in Chapel Hill, with 48.3% of people identifying as Christian.

However, Judaism had an overrepresentation in Chapel Hill compared to Greater Brisbane, comprising 0.6% versus 0.1%. Regarding ancestry, the top three groups based on parental country of birth were English (25.6%), Australian (20.2%), and Other (10.5%). Notably, South African ethnicity was overrepresented at 1.6%, Korean at 1.0%, and Sri Lankan at 0.7% compared to regional averages.

Chapel Hill's median age exceeds the national pattern

Chapel Hill's median age is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Brisbane's average of 36 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Chapel Hill has a notably higher percentage of residents aged 45-54 (15.9%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (6.3%). As per the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 grew from 11.7% to 14.5%, while those aged 75-84 increased from 5.8% to 7.9%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 35-44 decreased from 14.1% to 12.3%, and those aged 25-34 dropped from 7.5% to 6.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Chapel Hill's age profile. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 122%, adding 308 residents to reach 560. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 85% of the population growth, while declines are anticipated for those aged 15-24 and 0-4 years.