Chapel Hill (Qld)

Chapel Hill is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Chapel Hill (Qld) is around 10,952, reflecting a 4.2% increase since the 2021 Census figure of 10,511 people. This growth was inferred from AreaSearch's examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,173 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Chapel Hill's growth rate is close to that of its SA3 area (5.7%), indicating strong fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver of this growth. For projections, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia data for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered or years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections from 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted, with proportional growth weightings applied for age cohorts. By 2041, the suburb's population is projected to decline by 277 persons overall, but specific age groups like those aged 85 and over are expected to grow, with an increase of 335 people.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Chapel Hill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Chapel Hill recorded around 20 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 102 homes were approved, with an additional four approved so far in FY-26. This suggests solid demand for new dwellings, supporting property values.

The average expected construction cost value for these new homes was $697,000, indicating a focus on the premium market and high-end developments. In terms of commercial development activity, $10.6 million in approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting balanced commercial development in Chapel Hill compared to Greater Brisbane. Relative to national figures, Chapel Hill shows approximately 61% of construction activity per person and places among the 43rd percentile of areas assessed nationally, indicating more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing dwellings. However, building activity has accelerated in recent years, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent construction comprises 73.0% standalone homes and 27.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers.

This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix of approximately 98.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The location has approximately 389 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area. Given stable or declining population forecasts, Chapel Hill may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Chapel Hill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

AreaSearch has identified six projects that could impact this area's performance. Key projects include Woodlands Residences, 2172 Moggill Road Townhouses, Mount Coot-tha Precinct Upgrades, and Centa Property Group Lambert Road Development. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Chapel Hill ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Chapel Hill has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. As of June 2025, its unemployment rate is 2.2%.

This rate is 1.9% lower than Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.1%, while workforce participation is similar at 64.5%. Employment among residents is concentrated in professional & technical (2.1 times the regional level), health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction has limited presence with 5.2% employment compared to 9.0% regionally. Labour force levels decreased by 1.5% over the 12 months to June 2025, alongside a 0.9% employment decline, causing unemployment to fall by 0.5 percentage points.

In comparison, Greater Brisbane saw employment grow by 4.4%, labour force expand by 4.0%, and unemployment fall by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Chapel Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.4% over five years and 15.0% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Chapel Hill had a median income among taxpayers of $66,927 and an average level of $111,218. These figures are notably high compared to national levels and Brisbane's $55,645 and $70,520 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% from financial year 2022 to September 2025, estimated median income is approximately $76,290 and average income is around $126,777. Census 2021 data places Chapel Hill's household, family, and personal incomes between the 85th and 96th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 34.2% of residents earn over $4,000 weekly (3,745 individuals), differing from broader area trends where earnings between $1,500 and $2,999 prevail at 33.3%. The area's affluence is evident with 49.8% earning over $3,000 weekly. After housing costs, residents retain 89.3% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power. Chapel Hill's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Chapel Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Chapel Hill's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 97.7% houses and 2.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Brisbane metro's 95.2% houses and 4.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Chapel Hill stood at 43.2%, with the rest either mortgaged (43.0%) or rented (13.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,427, higher than Brisbane metro's average of $2,311. The median weekly rent was $555, compared to Brisbane metro's $500. Nationally, Chapel Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Chapel Hill features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 84.7% of all households, including 47.1% couples with children, 28.8% couples without children, and 7.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 15.3%, with lone person households at 12.8% and group households making up 2.6%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 3.0.

Chapel Hill demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Chapel Hill's educational attainment is notably high, with 57.9% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications, surpassing both Queensland's (25.7%) and Australia's (30.4%) averages. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 33.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (19.4%) and graduate diplomas (5.5%). Vocational pathways account for 18.6% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 9.1% and certificates at 9.5%. Educational participation is high, with 32.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.9% in primary, 9.6% in secondary, and 7.7% pursuing tertiary education. Chapel Hill State School serves the local area, enrolling 807 students, and demonstrates high educational performance (ICSEA: 1169), placing it among the most advantaged schools nationally. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in nearby areas. There are 7.4 school places per 100 residents, below the regional average of 13.4, indicating some students may attend schools outside Chapel Hill.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Chapel Hill has 44 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 13 different routes that together facilitate 1,377 weekly passenger trips. The town's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents on average being located just 194 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency across all routes averages 196 trips per day, equating to approximately 31 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Chapel Hill is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Chapel Hill shows above-average health outcomes for both younger and older age groups, with low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 71% of its total population of 7,804 has private health cover, significantly higher than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions in Chapel Hill are mental health issues (6.5%) and arthritis (6.4%), with 73.9% of residents reporting no medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Brisbane's 73.1%. Chapel Hill has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 20.2% (2,212 people), compared to Greater Brisbane's 18.2%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Chapel Hill are strong and largely align with the general population's health profile.

Chapel Hill was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Chapel Hill's cultural diversity is notable, with 23.7% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 36.5% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Chapel Hill, comprising 48.3% of its population. However, Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Brisbane, making up 0.6% versus 0.3%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (25.6%), Australian (20.2%), and Other (10.5%). Some ethnic groups show significant differences: South African at 1.6% compared to 2.0%, Korean at 1.0% versus 0.7%, and Sri Lankan at 0.7% against 0.4%.

Chapel Hill hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Chapel Hill's median age is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Brisbane's average of 36 and Australia's median of 38. The 45-54 cohort is notably over-represented in Chapel Hill at 15.9%, compared to Greater Brisbane's average, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 6.6%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has increased from 11.7% to 14.1%, and the 75-84 cohort has grown from 5.8% to 7.6%. Conversely, the 35-44 cohort has declined from 14.1% to 12.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Chapel Hill's age profile will change significantly. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 143%, adding 330 residents to reach 560. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 80% of the population growth, while declines are anticipated for the 0-4 and 65-74 cohorts.