Graceville

An assessment of population growth drivers in Graceville reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, as of May 2026, the estimated population of Graceville is around 4,993. This reflects an increase of 229 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,764. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4,990 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 30 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,655 persons per square kilometer, placing Graceville in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 93.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted. Considering projected demographic shifts, Graceville is expected to increase by just below the median of national areas, with an estimated population increase of 276 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 5.5% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Graceville, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Graceville shows an average of 19 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 98 homes. In FY-26 so far, 9 approvals have been recorded. The population has declined recently, suggesting that new supply has kept pace with demand, offering good choice to buyers. The average expected construction cost value of new properties is $874,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties.

This financial year, there have also been $771,000 in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Graceville records 14.0% less building activity per person and ranks among the 45th percentile of areas assessed nationally, suggesting limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established properties. All new construction has been detached houses, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

With around 364 people per dwelling approval, Graceville indicates a developed market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Graceville is projected to add 273 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Graceville has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects potentially impacting the region: Centenary Motorway Bypass, Queensland Tennis Centre Upgrade, Parklands At Sherwood, and Cross River Rail - Graceville Station. The following details projects most relevant to the area.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Graceville significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Graceville has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.0% as of December 2025, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. In Graceville, 2,736 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 2.1% lower than Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.1%.

Workforce participation was similar to Greater Brisbane's 69.6%. A high proportion, 37.9%, of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries of employment among residents were professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Graceville had particular specialization in professional & technical services with an employment share twice the regional level.

Conversely, construction showed lower representation at 5.7% compared to the regional average of 9.0%. The predominantly residential area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period, Graceville's labour force decreased by 3.7%, alongside a 3.5% employment decline, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.2 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Brisbane recorded employment growth of 3.2%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offered insight into potential future demand within Graceville. These projections suggested national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Graceville's employment mix indicated local employment should increase by 7.3% over five years and 14.7% over ten years, though this was a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and did not take into account localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Graceville had a median taxpayer income of $60,615 and an average income of $91,381 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is among the highest in Australia, contrasting with Greater Brisbane's median income of $58,236 and average income of $72,799. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.36% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $67,501 (median) and $101,762 (average) as of March 2026. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Graceville, between the 90th and 96th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows the $4000+ earnings band captures 35.3% of the community (1,762 individuals), differing from patterns across the broader area where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 33.3%. Economic strength emerges through 49.0% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000. After housing costs, residents retain 87.7% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Graceville is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Graceville's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Brisbane metro's 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Graceville stood at 36.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 42.5% and rented ones at 21.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,600, surpassing Brisbane metro's average of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Graceville was recorded at $495, compared to Brisbane metro's $380. Nationally, Graceville's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Graceville features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 79.8% of all households, including 45.8% couples with children, 22.7% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 20.2%, with lone person households at 17.1% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Graceville demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Graceville's residents aged 15 and above have a notably higher educational attainment compared to broader benchmarks. Specifically, 55.7% of its residents possess university qualifications, surpassing Queensland's 25.7% and Australia's 30.4%. This significant educational advantage indicates the area's strong potential for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 34.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (15.1%) and graduate diplomas (5.9%).

Vocational pathways comprise 19.5% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas accounting for 8.8% and certificates for 10.7%. Educational participation is notably high in Graceville, with 34.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 10.8% in secondary education, and 7.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Graceville has 27 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 91 routes, providing a total of 2,883 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 183 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 75%, followed by train at 16% and cycling at 2%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 37.9% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 411 trips per day, equating to approximately 106 weekly trips per individual stop.

Graceville's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Graceville. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low among the general population, nearer to national averages for older, at-risk cohorts. Private health cover was exceptionally high at approximately 63% of the total population (3,166 people), compared to 55.8% across Greater Brisbane and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions were mental health issues and asthma, impacting 7.9% and 7.0% of residents respectively. A total of 74.6% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 69.2% across Greater Brisbane. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 15.5% of residents aged 65 and over (773 people). Health outcomes among seniors were above average but ranked lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Graceville was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Graceville was found to be above average in cultural diversity, with 12.8% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 25.1% born overseas. The main religion in Graceville is Christianity, which makes up 50.6% of the population. However, Judaism is overrepresented, comprising 0.3% compared to 0.1% across Greater Brisbane.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English at 28.5%, Australian at 23.6%, and Irish at 10.3%. Notably, Scottish (10.0%), South Australian (1.0%), and Welsh (0.7%) groups are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 7.4%, 0.6%, and 0.5% respectively.

Graceville's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Graceville is 40 years, which is higher than Greater Brisbane's average of 36 years and slightly exceeds the national average of 38 years. The proportion of residents aged 45-54 years is notably higher at 17.5% compared to Greater Brisbane's average, while those aged 25-34 years are under-represented at 8.1%. This concentration of residents aged 45-54 years is well above the national average of 12.0%. According to post-2021 Census data, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 years has grown from 12.5% to 15.6%, while those aged 75-84 years have increased from 3.8% to 5.7%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 5-14 years has declined from 17.5% to 15.6%, and those aged 0-4 years have dropped from 5.5% to 3.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Graceville, with the 85+ age group expected to grow by 99% (128 people), reaching 258 from 129. This growth is led by residents aged 65 and older, who represent 61% of anticipated population growth. Conversely, the 15-24 and 0-4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.