Chapel Hill

Chapel Hill is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Chapel Hill's population is approximately 11,215 as of May 2026. This figure represents an increase of 484 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 10,731. The growth is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 11,166 in June 2025 and the addition of 30 validated new addresses post-census. This results in a density ratio of 2,076 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Chapel Hill's growth rate of 4.5% since the census is within 1.0 percentage point of the SA3 area's rate of 5.5%, indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections from 2023 (based on 2021 data) are adopted. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings based on ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023, using 2022 data for each age cohort. According to these projections, the area's population is expected to decline by 302 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are anticipated to grow, notably the 85 and over age group, projected to increase by 310 people.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Chapel Hill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Chapel Hill has seen approximately 20 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 102 homes. As of FY-26, 9 approvals have been recorded. On average, 3 new residents arrive per year for each dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25. This suggests supply is lagging demand, potentially leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $641,000, indicating developers' focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, $10.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Chapel Hill shows approximately 60% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 41st percentile nationally, suggesting more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing dwellings. Building activity has accelerated in recent years but remains lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent construction comprises 71.0% standalone homes and 29.0% attached dwellings, sustaining Chapel Hill's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns, which are currently 97.0% houses, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With approximately 588 people per approval, Chapel Hill shows a mature, established area with population projections indicating stability or decline, which should reduce housing demand pressures and benefit potential buyers in the future.

Chapel Hill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects that may impact this region. Notable ones are Woodlands Residences, Mount Coot-tha Precinct Upgrades, Centa Property Group Lambert Road Development, and 2172 Moggill Road Townhouses. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Chapel Hill demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Chapel Hill has a highly educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate in Chapel Hill is 2.4%. As of December 2025, there are 5,687 residents employed.

The unemployment rate in Chapel Hill is 1.7% lower than Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.1%. Workforce participation in Chapel Hill is somewhat below the standard at 64.7%, compared to Greater Brisbane's 69.6%. According to Census responses, 38.6% of residents work from home. The key industries of employment among residents are professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

Chapel Hill shows strong specialization in professional & technical services with an employment share of 2.1 times the regional level. However, construction is under-represented at 5.3% compared to Greater Brisbane's 9.0%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, the labour force decreased by 3.3%, while employment declined by 2.7% in Chapel Hill. This resulted in a fall in unemployment by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Brisbane saw employment rise by 3.2%, labour force grow by 3.0%, and unemployment fall by 0.1 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Chapel Hill's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 7.4% over five years and 15.0% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The Chapel Hill SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $70,140 and an average income of $109,157 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is notably higher than Greater Brisbane's median income of $58,236 and average income of $72,799. By March 2026, estimates suggest a median income of approximately $78,108 and an average income of $121,557, based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.36% since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Chapel Hill rank highly nationally, with household, family, and personal incomes between the 85th and 96th percentiles. The predominant income cohort spans 33.9% of locals (3,801 people) earning over $4,000 weekly, differing from the regional norm where the $1,500 - $2,999 category is most prevalent at 33.3%. A significant 49.4% earn above $3,000 weekly. After housing costs, residents retain 89.3% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Chapel Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Chapel Hill's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 97.3% houses and 2.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Brisbane metro had 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Chapel Hill was at 43.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 42.9% and rented ones at 14.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,407, higher than Brisbane metro's average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure in Chapel Hill was $555, compared to Brisbane metro's $380. Nationally, Chapel Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Chapel Hill features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 84.5% of all households, including 47.0% couples with children, 28.7% couples without children, and 7.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 15.5%, with lone person households at 12.7% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Chapel Hill demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Chapel Hill's educational attainment exceeds broader standards, with 57.9% of residents aged 15+ possessing university qualifications compared to Queensland's 25.7% and Australia's 30.4%. This notable advantage indicates strong potential for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 33.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (19.4%) and graduate diplomas (5.5%). Vocational pathways account for 18.5% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 9.0% and certificates at 9.5%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.9% in primary, 9.5% in secondary, and 7.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Chapel Hill shows that there are 47 active transport stops currently operating, all of which serve a mix of bus routes. These stops are serviced by 18 individual routes, collectively providing 1,842 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located approximately 197 meters from the nearest stop. As Chapel Hill is primarily residential, most residents commute outward for work or other purposes. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 81%, with bus use at 8% and cycling at 3%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling in Chapel Hill is 1.7, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, specifically 38.6%, work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 263 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 39 weekly trips per individual stop.

Chapel Hill's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance throughout Chapel Hill. AreaSearch's assessment shows low prevalence of common health conditions across both young and old age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 75% of the total population (8,444 people), compared to 55.8% in Greater Brisbane and 55.7% nationally.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 6.5% and 6.4% of residents respectively. A total of 74.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 69.2% across Greater Brisbane. The area has 19.7% of residents aged 65 and over (2,209 people), higher than the 15.1% in Greater Brisbane. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Chapel Hill was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Chapel Hill's cultural diversity was notable, with 23.7% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 36.5% born overseas. Christianity dominated the religious landscape, comprising 48.0%. However, Judaism showed significant overrepresentation at 0.6%, compared to 0.1% regionally.

In ancestry, the top groups were English (25.7%), Australian (20.2%), and Other (10.5%). Certain ethnic groups notably diverged from regional norms: South Australian at 1.6% vs 0.6%, Korean at 1.0% vs 0.5%, and Sri Lankan at 0.6% vs 0.2%.

Chapel Hill's median age exceeds the national pattern

Chapel Hill's median age is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Brisbane's average of 36 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Chapel Hill has an over-representation of the 45-54 cohort at 15.9% and an under-representation of the 25-34 cohort at 6.6%. Post-2021 Census, the 15-24 age group grew from 11.7% to 15.4%, while the 75-84 cohort increased from 5.8% to 7.6%. Conversely, the 35-44 cohort declined from 14.2% to 12.6%, and the 65-74 group dropped from 11.2% to 10.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Chapel Hill's age profile. The 85+ cohort is expected to grow by 119%, adding 288 residents to reach 531. Residents aged 65 and older represent 85% of anticipated growth, while population declines are projected for the 15-24 and 0-4 cohorts.