Chapel Hill

Chapel Hill is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Chapel Hill's population is around 11,175 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 444 people (4.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,731 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,170 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 15 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,069 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Chapel Hill's 4.1% growth since the census positions it within 2.0 percentage points of the SA3 area (6.1%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Regarding demographic trends, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the area's population expected to shrink by 282 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 85 and over age group, which is projected to increase by 344 people. See the age section for more details.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Chapel Hill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Chapel Hill has seen around 20 new homes approved per year, totalling 102 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 8 approvals have been recorded. Given an average of 3 new residents per year arriving per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is substantially lagging demand, which generally means heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures, while new homes are being built at an average value of $641,000, showing that developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. Additionally, $10.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development.

Compared to Greater Brisbane, Chapel Hill shows approximately 60% of the construction activity per person and ranks in the 41st percentile of areas assessed nationally, meaning more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing dwellings, though building activity has accelerated in recent years. This level is likewise lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. Recent construction comprises 71.0% standalone homes and 29.0% attached dwellings, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 97.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. At around 588 people per approval, Chapel Hill is a mature, established area.

With population projections showing stability or decline, Chapel Hill should see reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Chapel Hill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 7 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Woodlands Residences, Mount Coot-tha Precinct Upgrades, Centa Property Group Lambert Road Development, and 2172 Moggill Road Townhouses, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Chapel Hill demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Chapel Hill features a highly educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation and an unemployment rate of just 2.4%. As of December 2025, 5,687 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 1.7% below Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.1%, and workforce participation lags significantly (64.9% compared to Greater Brisbane's 71.2%). Based on Census responses, a high 38.6% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area shows particularly strong specialization in professional & technical, with an employment share 2.1 times the regional level. Conversely, construction is under-represented, with only 5.3% of Chapel Hill's workforce compared to 9.0% in Greater Brisbane. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, the labour force decreased by 3.3% while employment declined by 2.7%, causing unemployment to fall by 0.7 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Brisbane, where employment rose by 3.2%, the labour force grew by 3.0%, and unemployment fell 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Chapel Hill. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Chapel Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.4% over five years and 15.0% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The Chapel Hill SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $70,140 and an average of $109,157 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is exceptionally high nationally, contrasting with Greater Brisbane's median income of $58,236 and average income of $72,799. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $77,091 (median) and $119,974 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Chapel Hill, between the 85th and 96th percentiles nationally. Looking at income distribution, the predominant cohort spans 33.9% of locals (3,788 people) in the $4000+ category, diverging from the region where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 33.3%. A significant 49.4% earn above $3,000 weekly, reflecting pockets of prosperity that drive robust local economic activity. After housing costs, residents retain 89.3% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Chapel Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Chapel Hill, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 97.3% houses and 2.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Brisbane metro's 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Chapel Hill was well beyond that of Brisbane metro, at 43.1%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (42.9%) or rented (14.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Brisbane metro average at $2,407, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $555, compared to Brisbane metro's $1,863 and $380. Nationally, Chapel Hill's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Chapel Hill features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 84.5% of all households, comprising 47.0% couples with children, 28.7% couples without children, and 7.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 15.5%, with lone person households at 12.7% and group households comprising 2.7% of the total. The median household size of 2.9 people is larger than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Chapel Hill demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Chapel Hill significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 57.9% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 25.7% in QLD and 30.4% in Australia. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 33.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (19.4%) and graduate diplomas (5.5%). Vocational pathways account for 18.5% of qualifications among those aged 15+ – advanced diplomas (9.0%) and certificates (9.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.9% in primary education, 9.5% in secondary education, and 7.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 47 active transport stops operating within Chapel Hill, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 18 individual routes, collectively providing 1,842 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 197 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 81%, with 8% by bus and 3% cycling. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 38.6% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 263 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 39 weekly trips per individual stop.

Chapel Hill's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Chapel Hill, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts see low prevalence of common health conditions, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 75% of the total population (8,414 people). This compares to 55.8% across Greater Brisbane and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 6.5% and 6.4% of residents, respectively, while 74.0% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 69.2% across Greater Brisbane. The area has 20.6% of residents aged 65 and over (2,302 people), which is higher than the 15.2% in Greater Brisbane. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Chapel Hill was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Chapel Hill was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 23.7% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 36.5% born overseas. The main religion in Chapel Hill is Christianity, which makes up 48.0% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Judaism, which comprises 0.6% of the population, compared to 0.1% across Greater Brisbane.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Chapel Hill are English, comprising 25.7% of the population, Australian, comprising 20.2% of the population, and Other, comprising 10.5% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: South Australian is notably overrepresented at 1.6% of Chapel Hill (vs 0.6% regionally), Korean at 1.0% (vs 0.5%) and Sri Lankan at 0.6% (vs 0.2%).

Chapel Hill's median age exceeds the national pattern

At 42 years, Chapel Hill's median age is significantly above the Greater Brisbane average of 36 as well as considerably older than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Greater Brisbane average, the 45 - 54 cohort is notably over-represented (15.8% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (6.3%). Following the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 11.7% to 14.5% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 5.8% to 7.9%. Conversely, the 35 to 44 cohort has declined from 14.2% to 12.4% and the 25 to 34 group dropped from 7.4% to 6.3%. Demographic modeling suggests Chapel Hill's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 85+ cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 120%, adding 312 residents to reach 574. Demographic aging continues as residents 65 and older represent 84% of anticipated growth. On the other hand, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 cohorts.