Chapel Hill
Statistical Area - sa2

Chapel Hill is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Chapel Hill's population was approximately 10,731 as of the 2021 Census. By August 2025, this had increased to around 11,172 people, a rise of 441 individuals (4.1%). This growth is inferred from ABS estimates showing an resident population of 11,170 in June 2024 and the addition of 14 validated new addresses since the Census date. The resulting population density was approximately 2,068 persons per square kilometer, higher than the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Chapel Hill's growth rate of 4.1% since the census is within 1.6 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 5.7%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth during this period.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections for years post-2032, based on 2021 data. These state projections do not provide age category splits; therefore, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings from the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort when utilizing these projections. According to this methodology, Chapel Hill's population is projected to decline by 282 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are expected to grow, notably the 85 and over age group, which is projected to increase by 344 people.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Chapel Hill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Chapel Hill has seen approximately 20 new homes approved annually. Development approval data, provided by the ABS on a financial year basis, totals 102 approvals over the past five years from FY-21 to FY-25, with 3 approvals recorded so far in FY-26. Each dwelling constructed has welcomed an average of 3 new residents annually over these five years, indicating that demand significantly outpaces supply, which typically drives up prices and intensifies competition among buyers. The construction value of new properties averages $697,000, signifying developers' focus on the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This financial year has seen $10.6 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Chapel Hill records around 60% of building activity per person and ranks among the 41st percentile nationally, suggesting limited buyer options while bolstering demand for established homes. Building activity remains below the national average, implying the area's established nature and potential planning constraints. Recent construction consists of 71.0% detached dwellings and 29.0% attached dwellings, preserving Chapel Hill's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers prioritizing space. This shift marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns, currently at 97.0% houses, potentially due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences, as well as affordability needs.

With approximately 588 people per dwelling approval, Chapel Hill reflects a highly mature market. Given stable or declining population forecasts, the area may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating more favourable conditions for buyers.

Chapel Hill has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects that could affect this region. Notable projects include Woodlands Residences, Mount Coot-tha Precinct Upgrades, Centa Property Group Lambert Road Development, and 2172 Moggill Road Townhouses. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Chapel Hill demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Chapel Hill has an educated workforce with strong professional services representation and a low unemployment rate of 2.2% as of June 2025. It has 5,846 employed residents, with an unemployment rate 1.9% lower than Greater Brisbane's 4.1%.

Workforce participation is similar to Greater Brisbane's at 64.5%. Key industries are professional & technical (2.1 times the regional average), health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction is under-represented at 5.3% compared to Greater Brisbane's 9.0%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data analysis.

In the 12 months prior, Chapel Hill's labour force decreased by 1.5%, employment declined by 1.0%, resulting in a unemployment rate drop of 0.5 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Brisbane had employment growth of 4.4% and an unemployment fall of 0.4 percentage points. As of Sep-25, Queensland's employment contracted by 0.23% (losing 8,070 jobs) with a state unemployment rate of 4.2%, compared to the national rate of 4.5%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Chapel Hill's industry mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.4% over five years and 15.0% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Chapel Hill had a median taxpayer income of $66,927 and an average of $111,218 in financial year 2022. These figures were significantly higher than those in Greater Brisbane, which reported a median income of $55,645 and an average income of $70,520. By March 2025, these incomes are estimated to have increased to approximately $74,764 (median) and $124,242 (average), based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 11.71% since financial year 2022. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Chapel Hill ranked highly nationally, with household, family, and personal incomes falling between the 85th and 96th percentiles. The $4000+ earnings band included 33.9% of the community (3,787 individuals), contrasting with the metropolitan region where the $1,500 - 2,999 category was most prevalent at 33.3%. Economic strength in Chapel Hill was evident through 49.4% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, which supported elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retained 89.3% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 10th decile.

Chapel Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Chapel Hill's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 97.3% houses and 2.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Brisbane metro had 95.2% houses and 4.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Chapel Hill stood at 43.1%, with mortgaged properties at 42.9% and rented ones at 14.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,407, surpassing Brisbane metro's average of $2,311. The median weekly rent in Chapel Hill was $555, higher than Brisbane metro's $500. Nationally, Chapel Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Chapel Hill features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 84.5% of all households, including 47.0% couples with children, 28.7% couples without children, and 7.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 15.5%, consisting of 12.7% lone person households and 2.7% group households. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 3.0.

Chapel Hill demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Chapel Hill's educational attainment is notably higher than broader averages. Among residents aged 15+, 57.9% have university qualifications, compared to 25.7% in Queensland and 30.4% nationally. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 33.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (19.4%) and graduate diplomas (5.5%). Vocational pathways account for 18.5%, with advanced diplomas at 9.0% and certificates at 9.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 32.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.9% in primary, 9.5% in secondary, and 7.6% in tertiary education. Chapel Hill State School serves the local area, enrolling 807 students as of a recent date. The school demonstrates strong performance (ICSEA: 1169), placing it among the most advantaged nationally. It focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available nearby. There are 7.2 school places per 100 residents in Chapel Hill, lower than the regional average of 13.4. Some students may attend schools in adjacent areas due to this difference.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Chapel Hill shows 47 active public transit stops operating. These are served by a mix of buses on 18 different routes. Together, these routes facilitate 1,842 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 197 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 263 daily trips across all routes, equating to approximately 39 weekly trips per individual stop.

Chapel Hill's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Chapel Hill. Both young and old age cohorts saw low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover was found to be exceptionally high at approximately 76% of the total population (8,513 people), compared to 72.0% across Greater Brisbane.

This is significantly higher than the national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions in the area were mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 6.5 and 6.4% of residents respectively, while 74.0% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 73.1% across Greater Brisbane. As of 2021, the area has 20.1% of residents aged 65 and over (2,246 people), which is higher than the 18.2% in Greater Brisbane. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Chapel Hill was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Chapel Hill, as of the latest data from 2020, had a higher level of cultural diversity compared to most local markets. Specifically, 23.7% of its population spoke a language other than English at home, and 36.5% were born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Chapel Hill, with 48.0% of people identifying as such.

However, Judaism had an overrepresentation, comprising 0.6% of the population compared to 0.3% across Greater Brisbane. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (25.7%), Australian (20.2%), and Other (10.5%). Notable differences existed in the representation of certain ethnic groups: South African was overrepresented at 1.6% compared to the regional average of 2.0%, Korean at 1.0% versus 0.7%, and Sri Lankan at 0.6% against a regional figure of 0.4%.

Chapel Hill hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Chapel Hill's median age is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Brisbane's average of 36 and Australia's median of 38. Locally, the 45-54 cohort makes up 15.9%, which is notably higher than the Greater Brisbane average, while the 25-34 cohort represents only 6.6%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has increased from 11.7% to 14.1%, and the 75-84 cohort has risen from 5.8% to 7.6%. Conversely, the 35-44 cohort has declined from 14.2% to 12.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Chapel Hill's age profile. The 85+ cohort is expected to grow by 140%, adding 334 residents to reach 574. Residents aged 65 and older are projected to represent 80% of the population growth, while declines are anticipated for the 0-4 and 65-74 cohorts.