Barwon Heads

Barwon Heads lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the population of Barwon Heads is estimated at around 4,292, reflecting a decrease of 61 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 4,353. This decrease is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 3,907 based on ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and an additional 21 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio stands at 630 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Barwon Heads has shown resilient growth with a compound annual growth rate of 7.9%, outpacing its SA3 area. Interstate migration contributed approximately 77.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024, using the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels for areas not covered by this data.

Exceptional future growth is predicted over the period 2022 to 2041, with the area expected to expand by 4,045 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 121.7% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Barwon Heads according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Barwon Heads averaged approximately 6 new dwelling approvals annually over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 34 homes. As of FY-26, no approvals have been recorded yet. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an average of 47.6 new residents arrived per year for each dwelling constructed. This supply lagging demand suggests heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures, with new dwellings developed at an average cost of $493,000.

In FY-26, $111,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Barwon Heads has significantly less development activity, 91.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. All new construction in the area since FY-21 has been detached houses, preserving its low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population count of 881 people per dwelling approval reflects its quiet development environment.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Barwon Heads is forecasted to gain 5,223 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Barwon Heads has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified six projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones are 5-7 Bridge Road Mixed Use Development Site, Barwon Heads Village Park Master Plan, IGA Barwon Heads Redevelopment, At The Heads Restaurant Refurbishment and Barwon Heads Caravan Park Cabins. Below is a list of those most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Barwon Heads demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Barwon Heads has a highly educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate was 2.0% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.5%. This is based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of June 2025, 2,648 residents were in work while the unemployment rate was 1.8% below Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation was broadly similar to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%.

Leading employment industries among residents comprised health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area demonstrated particularly notable concentration in professional & technical services, with employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing showed lower representation at 1.9% versus the regional average of 7.5%. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 1.5% while labour force increased by 2.2%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced employment decline of 0.9% and labour force decline of 0.4%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 offer further insight into potential future demand within Barwon Heads. These projections suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth rates differing significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Barwon Heads's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.3% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Barwon Heads had a median taxpayer income of $60,054 and an average of $78,947 in financial year 2022. This was among the highest in Australia, contrasting with Rest of Vic.'s median income of $48,741 and average income of $60,693. By September 2025, estimates based on a 12.16% Wage Price Index growth would be approximately $67,357 (median) and $88,547 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Barwon Heads ranked between the 79th and 81st percentiles nationally. In income distribution, 28.2% of residents earned between $1,500 and $2,999 (1,210 people), similar to regional levels at 30.3%. Notably, 37.1% earned over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. After housing costs, residents retained 88.8% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 9th decile.

Barwon Heads is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Barwon Heads' dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 90.9% houses and 9.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). Non-Metro Vic., meanwhile, had 93.0% houses and 7.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Barwon Heads stood at 48.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.8% and rented ones at 16.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,184, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,950. Median weekly rent in Barwon Heads was $450, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $402. Nationally, Barwon Heads' mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,184 versus Australia's average of $1,863. Rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Barwon Heads has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 74.6% of all households, including 33.2% couples with children, 32.2% couples without children, and 8.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.4%, with lone person households at 24.1% and group households comprising 1.5%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which matches the average for the Rest of Vic.

Barwon Heads demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Barwon Heads is significantly higher than broader benchmarks. As of 2016, 44.2% of residents aged 15 years and above hold university qualifications, compared to 21.7% in the rest of Victoria and 28.6% in the SA4 region. This educational advantage positions Barwon Heads strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 30.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.8%) and graduate diplomas (5.0%). Trade and technical skills also feature prominently, with 30.0% of residents aged 15 years and above holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (13.7%) and certificates (16.3%).

Educational participation is notably high in Barwon Heads, with 33.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of 2016. This includes 13.9% in primary education, 10.2% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education. Barwon Heads Primary School provides local educational services within Barwon Heads, with an enrollment of 426 students as of 2017 while the area demonstrates significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement (ICSEA: 1117). The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Barwon Heads has 25 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. All these stops are serviced by bus routes, with a total of 144 weekly passenger trips provided collectively. The accessibility to transport is rated as good, with residents typically located 216 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 20 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 5 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Barwon Heads is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Barwon Heads shows superior health outcomes for both younger and older age groups.

Common health conditions have low prevalence here; private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 58% of the total population (2,488 people). The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 9.5 and 7.2% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 71.6%, report being free from medical ailments, compared to 66.8% in the rest of Victoria. The area has a high proportion of seniors, with 23.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,008 people). Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, outperforming general population health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Barwon Heads placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Barwon Heads, as per the census conducted on Tuesday 29 June 2016, exhibited a lower than average level of cultural diversity. A significant majority of its residents were Australian citizens, with 91.2% holding citizenship and 89.8% having been born in Australia. The language spoken predominantly at home was English, with 98.3% of the population reporting this as their primary tongue.

Christianity emerged as the dominant religion in Barwon Heads, accounting for 41.4% of its inhabitants. However, the most striking deviation from regional averages was observed in the Jewish population, which constituted 0.1% of Barwon Heads' residents compared to a similar proportion across the rest of Victoria. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (32.3%), Australian (28.9%), and Irish (12.5%). Notable disparities existed in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Scottish individuals made up 11.6% of Barwon Heads' population compared to a regional average of 9.7%, Dutch residents constituted 1.7% versus a regional figure of 1.8%, and Welsh inhabitants accounted for 0.6% each in both Barwon Heads and the broader region.

Barwon Heads hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Barwon Heads has a median age of 45 years, which is slightly higher than Rest of Vic.'s 43 and considerably older than the national average of 38. The 5-14 cohort is notably over-represented in Barwon Heads at 15.6%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 7.9%. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group has grown from 5.5% to 7.9% of the population, and the 35-44 cohort increased from 12.2% to 13.5%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort declined from 13.9% to 12.4%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Barwon Heads' age profile will change significantly, with the 45-54 age cohort projected to increase by 984 people (154%) from 639 to 1,624.