Tamborine - Canungra

Population growth drivers in Tamborine - Canungra are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Tamborine - Canungra's population is around 16,687 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 995 people (6.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,692 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,628 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 364 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 31 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Tamborine - Canungra's 6.3% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (6.1%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 52.4% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including interstate migration and natural growth, were positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence, where utilised, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Anticipating future population dynamics, a population increase just below the median of Australia's regional areas is expected, with the area expected to increase by 1,922 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 11.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Tamborine - Canungra among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Tamborine - Canungra has averaged around 87 new dwelling approvals annually, with 438 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 82 so far in FY-26. With an average of 2.5 new residents per dwelling over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), indicating healthy demand that should support property values, new homes are being built at an average cost of $360,000. Additionally, $11.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting balanced commercial development activity.

Compared to the rest of Queensland, Tamborine - Canungra has similar development levels (per person), supporting market stability in line with regional patterns. Meanwhile, new construction has consisted entirely of standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 155 people per dwelling approval, Tamborine - Canungra shows characteristics of a low-density area.

Population forecasts indicate Tamborine - Canungra will gain 1,863 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Tamborine - Canungra has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 39 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Tamborine Shopping Centre Revamp, Kidd Street Retirement Facility, Tamborine Mountain Gallery Walk Precinct, and Greater Flagstone Priority Development Area, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Tamborine - Canungra exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Tamborine - Canungra features a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of only 3.5%, and 2.8% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 8,680 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.5% below Regional Qld's rate of 4.0%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Regional Qld's 65.4%. Based on Census responses, a moderate 20.7% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area shows particularly strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 13.5% versus the regional average of 16.1%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 2.8% while labour force increased by 2.5%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.2 percentage points. This compares to Regional Qld, where employment grew by 0.7%, labour force expanded by 1.0%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Tamborine - Canungra. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Tamborine - Canungra's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.2% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Tamborine - Canungra SA2's median income among taxpayers is $49,802, with an average of $65,910. This is just below the national average, and compares to Regional Qld's median of $53,146 and average of $66,593. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $54,737 (median) and $72,442 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Tamborine - Canungra, between the 34th and 49th percentiles. The earnings profile shows the predominant cohort spans 33.7% of locals (5,623 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting patterns seen in the metropolitan region where 31.7% similarly occupy this range. High housing costs consume 15.5% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 51st percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Tamborine - Canungra is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Tamborine - Canungra, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 95.8% houses and 4.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Qld's 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Tamborine - Canungra was well beyond that of Regional Qld, at 38.8%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (47.7%) or rented (13.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Regional Qld average at $1,950, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $420, compared to Regional Qld's $1,655 and $345. Nationally, Tamborine - Canungra's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Tamborine - Canungra features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 78.9% of all households, comprising 33.7% couples with children, 34.8% couples without children, and 9.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 21.1%, with lone person households at 18.4% and group households comprising 2.7% of the total. The median household size of 2.7 people is larger than the Regional Qld average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Tamborine - Canungra exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's educational profile stands out regionally, with university qualification rates (25.7% of residents aged 15+) exceeding the Rest of Qld average of 20.6%, reflecting the community's emphasis on higher education. Bachelor degrees lead at 17.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 43.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (14.7%) and certificates (28.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Tamborine - Canungra's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Tamborine - Canungra, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups, and the rate of private health cover slightly lags that of the average SA2 area at approximately 52% of the total population (~8,660 people).

The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.0% and 8.1% of residents, respectively, while 68.0% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 21.7% of residents aged 65 and over (3,619 people), which is higher than the 20.4% in Regional Qld. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Tamborine - Canungra ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Tamborine - Canungra was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 76.4% of its population born in Australia, 87.4% being citizens, and 95.0% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Tamborine - Canungra is Christianity, which makes up 45.6% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.1% of the population, compared to 0.1% across Regional Qld.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Tamborine - Canungra are English, comprising 33.9% of the population, Australian, comprising 25.6% of the population, and Scottish, comprising 9.4% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: New Zealand is notably overrepresented at 1.1% of Tamborine - Canungra (vs 0.9% regionally), Welsh at 0.7% (vs 0.5%) and German at 4.6% (vs 4.7%).

Tamborine - Canungra hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Tamborine - Canungra's median age of 46 years stands significantly above Regional Qld's 41 as well as well above the 38-year national average. Relative to Regional Qld, Tamborine - Canungra has a higher concentration of 55 - 64 residents (15.0%) but fewer 25 - 34 year-olds (8.6%). Since the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 9.8% to 11.2% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 12.8% to 11.5% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 15.5% to 14.3%. By 2041, Tamborine - Canungra is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading the demographic shift, the 25 to 34 group will grow by 30% (432 people), reaching 1,859 from 1,426. On the other hand, the 15 to 24 cohort is projected to decline by 189 people.