Dungog

Population growth drivers in Dungog are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Dungog's population is approximately 10,243 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 702 people, a 7.4% rise from the 9,541 reported in the 2021 Census. The growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,958 in June 2024 and an additional 167 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 4.6 persons per square kilometer. Dungog's growth rate exceeded that of non-metro areas (5.1%) and the state between 2021 and 2025, indicating it as a region leader in growth. Interstate migration contributed approximately 77.9% to population gains during this period, with other factors such as overseas migration and natural growth also being positive influences.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 using a 2021 base year are employed. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate significant growth in Dungog, with an expected increase of 3,152 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 27.5% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Dungog among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Dungog averaged approximately 48 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 243 homes were approved, with an additional 30 approved so far in FY26. On average, each dwelling has resulted in about 2.4 new residents per year over these five years.

The average expected construction cost value for new homes is around $359,000. This financial year has seen $6.2 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to the rest of NSW, Dungog has significantly less development activity, at 52.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes.

All new construction since FY21 has been standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With approximately 199 people per dwelling approval, Dungog shows characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Dungog is forecasted to gain around 2,814 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Dungog has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Port of Newcastle Clean Energy Precinct, Maitland Local Housing Strategy 2041, Raymond Terrace Housing Delivery Program, and Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program. The below list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.4%, Dungog has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Dungog has a skilled workforce with notable representation in construction. As of September 2025, its unemployment rate is 3.4%.

In comparison to the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%, Dungog's rate is 0.4% lower. Workforce participation stands at 58.7%, slightly higher than the regional average of 56.4%. Key employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and agriculture, forestry & fishing. The area shows strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level.

However, health care & social assistance has lower representation at 12.7% compared to the regional average of 16.9%. Labour force levels decreased by 2.5% over the year to September 2025, while employment declined by 2.9%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment with smaller declines in labour force and employment. State-wide, NSW experienced a slight employment contraction of 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs) by 25-Nov-25, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts suggest that over five years, national employment is expected to expand by 6.6%, and over ten years by 13.7%. Applying these projections to Dungog's employment mix indicates potential local growth of 5.9% over five years and 12.5% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 indicates Dungog SA2's median income among taxpayers is $47,203 with an average of $62,013. This is below the national average and compares to Rest of NSW's median of $49,459 and average of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $53,155 (median) and $69,833 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes rank modestly in Dungog, between the 30th and 34th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 30.3% of locals (3,103 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income category. After housing costs, 85.3% of income remains for other expenses. Dungog's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Dungog is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dungog's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 97.3% houses and 2.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 90.9% houses and 9.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Dungog was at 43.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 40.7% and rented ones at 15.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,820, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Weekly rent in Dungog averaged $300, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $340. Nationally, Dungog's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Dungog has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.4% of all households, including 30.9% couples with children, 33.5% couples without children, and 9.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.6%, with lone person households at 24.2% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Dungog fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 43.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.7% and certificates at 32.8%.

Educational participation is high, with 25.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.2% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Dungog has 454 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 47 individual routes that collectively facilitate 1,280 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is rated as good, with residents typically located 282 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, service frequency across all routes amounts to 182 trips per day, translating to approximately 2 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Dungog is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant challenges for Dungog regarding common health conditions, affecting both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover stands at approximately 51%, covering around 5,182 people. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.5%) and asthma (9.1%). About 63.3% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 62.6% in Rest of NSW. Dungog has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 23.2% (2,373 people), compared to the 16.9% state average. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, exceeding general population metrics.

The latest Census data sees Dungog placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Dungog had a cultural diversity level below average, with 94.2% of its population born in Australia, 94.6% being citizens, and 99.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Dungog, comprising 59.5% of the population, compared to 55.7% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (35.5%), English (32.8%), and Irish (8.5%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal were overrepresented at 4.6% in Dungog versus 6.3% regionally, German at 3.6% versus 3.2%, and Scottish at 7.7% versus 8.2%.

Dungog hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Dungog's median age is 46, which is higher than Rest of NSW's figure of 43 and significantly higher than the national norm of 38. The 55-64 age group constitutes 15.1% of Dungog's population, compared to Rest of NSW, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 9.1%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15-24 age group has increased from 9.6% to 10.6%, whereas the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 13.0% to 11.9%. By 2041, Dungog's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 45-54 group is projected to grow by 39%, reaching 1,693 people from the current 1,218.