Carnegie

Population growth drivers in Carnegie are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Carnegie's population is around 21,006 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 2,472 people (13.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 18,534 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 20,903 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 344 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 5,527 persons per square kilometer, which lies in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch, making land in the area a highly sought resource. Carnegie's 13.3% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (8.7%) and the national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 91.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilizes the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, a significant population increase in the top quartile of statistical areas analyzed by AreaSearch is forecast, with the area expected to expand by 6,253 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 29.3% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Carnegie among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Carnegie has recorded around 97 residential properties granted approval annually, with 489 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 65 so far in FY-26. With an average of 2.5 new residents per year gained for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), reflecting robust demand that underpins property values, new homes are being built at an average construction cost of $289,000—below regional norms—reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers. Additionally, $23.0 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carnegie has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person, placing it among the 55th percentile of areas assessed nationally. New building activity shows 12.0% detached dwellings and 88.0% medium and high-density housing. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 31.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. At around 775 people per approval, Carnegie shows a mature, established area.

Population forecasts indicate Carnegie will gain 6,150 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Carnegie has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 30 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Housing Choices Carnegie - Egan Street, Eighty East, Lord Reserve Pavilion Redevelopment, and Carnegie Station & Level Crossing Removal, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Carnegie has been broadly consistent with national averages

Carnegie has a highly educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of 4.2%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 12,991 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.5% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (73.7% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a high 44.6% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area shows particularly strong specialization in professional & technical, with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level. On the other hand, construction is under-represented, with only 6.1% of Carnegie's workforce compared to 9.7% in Greater Melbourne. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.0% and labour force decreased by 0.2%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.2 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Carnegie. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Carnegie's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.3% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Carnegie SA2 is among the highest in Australia, with the median assessed at $62,279 while the average income stands at $80,061. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's figures of a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $67,417 (median) and $86,666 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, personal income ranks at the 79th percentile ($1,011 weekly), while household income sits at the 57th percentile. Looking at income distribution, the largest segment comprises 32.1% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (6,742 residents), mirroring the surrounding region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. High housing costs consume 16.6% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 57th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Carnegie features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Carnegie, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 31.1% houses and 68.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Carnegie lagged that of Melbourne metro, at 26.5%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (29.9%) or rented (43.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Melbourne metro average at $2,025, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $395, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Carnegie's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceed the national figure of $375.

Carnegie features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 58.2% of all households, comprising 24.1% couples with children, 25.8% couples without children, and 6.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 41.8%, with lone person households at 35.5% and group households comprising 6.3% of the total. The median household size of 2.2 people is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational achievement in Carnegie places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Educational attainment in Carnegie significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 55.4% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 30.4% in Australia and 33.4% in VIC. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 33.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (17.5%) and graduate diplomas (4.3%). Vocational pathways account for 20.7% of qualifications among those aged 15+ – advanced diplomas (10.3%) and certificates (10.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in tertiary education, 7.0% in primary education, and 5.2% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 75 active transport stops operating within Carnegie, comprising a mix of light rail and buses. These stops are serviced by 15 individual routes, collectively providing 7,350 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 165 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 69%, with 18% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 0.8 per dwelling, below the regional average. A high 44.6% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 1,050 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 98 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Carnegie is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Carnegie demonstrates above-average health outcomes, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is quite low across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population (12,498 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 8.0% and 6.8% of residents, respectively, while 74.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 15.1% of residents aged 65 and over (3,161 people). Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Carnegie is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carnegie scores highly on cultural diversity, with 39.7% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 44.7% born overseas. The main religion in Carnegie is Christianity, which makes up 34.1% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Judaism, which comprises 6.5% of the population, substantially higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Carnegie are English, comprising 17.7% of the population, Australian, comprising 15.8% of the population, and Other, comprising 14.5% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Russian is notably overrepresented at 1.7% of Carnegie (vs 0.4% regionally), Polish at 1.5% (vs 0.8%) and Hungarian at 0.6% (vs 0.3%).

Carnegie's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Carnegie's median age of 35 years is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and somewhat younger than the 38-year national average. The 25 - 34 age group shows strong representation at 23.6% compared to Greater Melbourne, whereas the 5 - 14 cohort is less prevalent at 7.6%. This 25 - 34 concentration is well above the national 14.4%. Since 2021, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 11.5% to 13.2% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 22.0% to 23.6%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 9.0% to 7.6%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Carnegie. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to increase solidly, expanding by 1,350 people (27%) from 4,961 to 6,312. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 cohort is expected to grow by a modest 6% (175 people).