Carnegie
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Carnegie are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Carnegie's population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, was approximately 20,942 by August 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 2,408 people from the 2021 Census count of 18,534, indicating a growth rate of 13.0%. This change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 20,903 in June 2024 and the addition of 320 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio stands at 5,511 persons per square kilometer, placing Carnegie within the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch, highlighting its land as a highly-sought resource. Carnegie's growth rate surpassed that of both the SA4 region (7.0%) and the national average since the 2021 Census, marking it as a growth leader in the area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 91.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting them employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Carnegie is forecasted to experience a significant population increase in the top quartile of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch, with an expected expansion of 6,253 persons, recording a total gain of 29.7% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Carnegie among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Carnegie has recorded approximately 97 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis: 489 homes over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, and 43 so far in FY26. On average, 2.5 new residents per year have been added for each dwelling over these five years, indicating solid demand that supports property values. New homes are being built at an average value of $667,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments.

This financial year has seen $23.0 million in commercial approvals registered, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carnegie records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 56th percentile of areas assessed nationally. New development consists of 12.0% detached dwellings and 88.0% medium and high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix of 31.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The location has approximately 775 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market.

Population forecasts suggest Carnegie will gain 6,214 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Carnegie has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 34 projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives include Suburban Rail Loop East, Housing Choices Carnegie - Egan Street, Mimosa Row Apartments, and Carnegie Station & Level Crossing Removal. The following details projects expected to have most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Carnegie has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Carnegie has an educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate was 4.7% as of June 2025.

Employment stability was maintained over the previous year. In June 2025, 12,773 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%. Workforce participation was 69.5% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment industries included professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

The area had a high specialization in professional & technical services, with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level. Construction employment was under-represented at 6.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.7%. Local employment opportunities appeared limited based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, Carnegie's labour force increased by 1.4%, while employment remained unchanged, leading to a 1.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.5% and unemployment rise by 0.5%. State-level data from Sep-25 showed Victorian employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, slightly higher than the national rate of 4.5%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 projected a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carnegie's employment mix suggested local growth rates of approximately 7.1% over five years and 14.3% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows income in Carnegie is high nationally. The median income is $59,161 and the average is $78,494. In Greater Melbourne, the median income is $54,892 and the average is $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Carnegie are approximately $65,142 (median) and $86,430 (average) as of March 2025. According to the 2021 Census, individual earnings at the 80th percentile nationally are $1,011 weekly. In Carnegie, 32.1% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly. This is consistent with broader trends across the region where 32.8% fall into this earnings band. High housing costs consume 16.6% of income in Carnegie. Despite this, disposable income ranks at the 58th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Carnegie features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Carnegie's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 31.1% houses and 68.8% other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings, contrasting with Melbourne metro's 47.8% houses and 52.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carnegie stood at 26.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.9% and rented ones at 43.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,025, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,396, while the median weekly rent was $395, compared to Melbourne metro's $435. Nationally, Carnegie's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, and rents surpassed the national figure of $375.

Carnegie features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 58.2% of all households, including 24.1% couples with children, 25.8% couples without children, and 6.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 41.8%, with lone person households making up 35.5% and group households comprising 6.3%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

Carnegie demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Carnegie's educational attainment is notably higher than broader benchmarks. 55.4% of residents aged 15 and above hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% in Australia and 33.4% in Victoria (VIC). Bachelor degrees are the most common at 33.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (17.5%) and graduate diplomas (4.3%). Vocational pathways account for 20.7% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 10.3% and certificates at 10.4%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in tertiary education, 7.0% in primary education, and 5.2% pursuing secondary education. Carnegie's four schools have a combined enrollment of 964 students, while the area demonstrates significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement (ICSEA score: 1130). The four schools focus exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas due to limited local school capacity (4.6 places per 100 residents vs regional average of 14.2). Many families travel to nearby areas for schooling.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carnegie has 75 active public transport stops. These stops offer a mix of train, light rail, and bus services. There are 14 individual routes operating in total, serving 6,874 weekly passenger trips collectively.

Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 165 meters to the nearest stop. On average, there are 982 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 91 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carnegie's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Carnegie. Younger cohorts particularly saw very low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover was found to be exceptionally high at approximately 59% of the total population (12,313 people), compared to 65.2% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions in the area were mental health issues and asthma, impacting 8.0 and 6.8% of residents respectively. Seventy-four point two percent declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.0% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 14.7% of residents aged 65 and over (3,074 people), which is lower than the 16.8% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average but require more attention than the broader population.

Carnegie is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carnegie's cultural diversity is notable, with 39.7% speaking a language other than English at home and 44.7% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 34.1%. Judaism, however, is underrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up only 6.5%.

Ancestry-wise, English (17.7%), Australian (15.8%), and Other (14.5%) are the top groups. Some ethnic groups show significant differences: Russian (1.7% vs regional 2.2%), Polish (1.5% vs 3.1%), and Hungarian (0.6% vs 0.8%).

Carnegie's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Carnegie's median age is 35 years, slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group comprises 23.9%, higher than Greater Melbourne but lower than the national average of 14.5%. The 5-14 cohort represents 7.7%, lower than both Greater Melbourne and the national average. From 2021 to present, the 25-34 age group has grown from 22.0% to 23.9%, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 11.5% to 13.3%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort declined from 9.0% to 7.7%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Carnegie. The 25-34 age group is projected to increase by 1,311 people (26%), from 5,000 to 6,312. Meanwhile, the 15-24 cohort grows by a modest 6% (167 people).