Elsternwick

Population growth drivers in Elsternwick are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, Elsternwick's population is estimated at around 11,698 people. This reflects a growth of 811 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,887 people in the suburb. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 11,673 residents following examination of the latest ERP data release by ABS (June 2024) and an additional 158 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 4,499 persons per square kilometer, placing Elsternwick in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 7.4% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region's growth rate of 7.1%, making it a growth leader in the area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 77.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for Elsternwick.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Elsternwick is projected to grow by an additional 1,991 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 16.9% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Elsternwick according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Elsternwick recorded approximately 40 residential properties granted approval annually based on AreaSearch analysis. Around 200 homes were approved between the financial years FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional 162 approved in FY-26 to date. On average, over the past five financial years, 1.2 new residents arrived per new home built. However, this figure increased to 14.3 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, indicating Elsternwick's growing popularity and potential supply constraints.

The average construction cost value of new homes was $1,371,000 during this period, suggesting developers focused on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, there have been approximately $35.8 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Elsternwick has roughly half the building activity per person and ranks among the 30th percentile nationally, offering limited buyer options while driving demand for established homes. New development consists of 15.0% standalone homes and 85.0% attached dwellings, promoting higher-density living which suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Elsternwick has approximately 549 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to grow by 1,971 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Elsternwick has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified fifteen projects likely influencing the area. Notable projects include 25 Sandham Street Townhouses, 10-16 Selwyn Street Mixed-Use Development, 552 Glen Huntly Road Mixed-Use Development, and Seymour & Blanche Townhouses. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Elsternwick exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Elsternwick has a highly educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate is 3.4%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Employment stability in the area over the past year was relative, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of June 2025, 7,003 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.2% below Greater Melbourne's rate and workforce participation at 69.4%. Employment is concentrated in professional & technical (1.7 times the regional average), health care & social assistance, and education & training sectors. Manufacturing employs only 3.7% of local workers, lower than Greater Melbourne's 7.2%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census working population to local population count. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 0.0%, labour force by 1.3%, resulting in unemployment rise by 1.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Elsternwick. These projections estimate national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Elsternwick's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.3% over five years and 14.6% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Elsternwick had a median taxpayer income of $67,618 and an average income of $108,067 in financial year 2022. These figures are exceptionally high nationally compared to Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761 during the same period. Based on a 12.16% growth in wages since financial year 2022, current estimates project Elsternwick's median income to be approximately $75,840 and average income to be around $121,208 as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Elsternwick rank highly nationally, with household, family, and personal incomes between the 78th and 91st percentiles. Income analysis shows that the predominant cohort in Elsternwick is 3,415 people, representing 29.2% of locals, earning between $1,500 to $2,999 weekly. Higher earners are also prevalent, with 36.9% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power in the community. Despite high housing costs consuming 15.2% of income, Elsternwick's disposable income ranks at the 79th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Elsternwick features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Elsternwick's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 38.3% houses and 61.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 47.8% houses and 52.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Elsternwick stood at 31.5%, similar to Melbourne metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.1% and rented dwellings at 39.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,400, above the Melbourne metro average of $2,396. Median weekly rent in Elsternwick was $441, compared to Melbourne metro's $435. Nationally, Elsternwick's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,400 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Elsternwick features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 61.4% of all households, including 27.1% couples with children, 26.0% couples without children, and 7.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 38.6%, with lone person households at 33.5% and group households comprising 5.1%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

Elsternwick shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Elsternwick is notably higher than national and state averages. 55.0% of residents aged 15+ have university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% in Victoria. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 35.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.9%) and graduate diplomas (5.8%). Vocational pathways account for 19.9% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 10.1% and certificates at 9.8%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.5% in primary, 8.0% in secondary, and 6.9% pursuing tertiary education. Elsternwick has a robust network of schools, with 7 institutions educating approximately 1,430 students. The area demonstrates significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement, with an ICSEA score of 1100. The educational mix includes 3 primary and 4 K-12 schools. Note: for schools showing 'n/a' in enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Elsternwick has 61 active public transport stops operating. These include train, light rail, and bus services. There are 10 individual routes serving these stops, providing a total of 9,252 weekly passenger trips.

The average distance from residents to the nearest transport stop is 153 meters, indicating excellent accessibility. Service frequency averages 1,321 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 151 weekly trips per individual stop.

Elsternwick's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Elsternwick. Prevalence of common health conditions is very low across all age groups. Private health cover rate is exceptionally high at approximately 69% of the total population (8110 people), compared to 65.2% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are mental health issues impacting 7.7% of residents, and asthma impacting 6.9%. A total of 74.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 74.0% across Greater Melbourne. Elsternwick has 18.5% of residents aged 65 and over (2164 people), higher than the 16.8% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Elsternwick was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Elsternwick's cultural diversity was notable, with 20.5% speaking a language other than English at home and 30.5% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 32.0%. Judaism was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 19.1% of Elsternwick's population versus 17.5%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (21.9%), Australian (19.9%), and Other (14.1%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Polish at 3.7% (regional: 3.1%), Russian at 1.6% (regional: 2.2%), and Hungarian at 1.1% (regional: 0.8%).

Elsternwick's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Elsternwick as of 2021 was 38 years, closely matching Greater Melbourne's average age of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Elsternwick had a higher percentage of residents aged 75-84 (6.8% vs. 6.2%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (12.5% vs. 13.9%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, Elsternwick's population saw changes in age distribution: the 75 to 84 age group increased from 4.8% to 6.8%, while the 15 to 24 cohort rose from 11.0% to 12.6%. Conversely, the 35 to 44 age group decreased from 14.1% to 12.5%, and the 5 to 14 age group fell from 11.8% to 10.5%. By 2041, Elsternwick's age composition is projected to shift significantly. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 63%, reaching 1,293 people from the previous 795. This growth will be led by the aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising 60% of the projected growth. Meanwhile, numbers in the 0 to 4 age range are expected to decrease by approximately 8%.