Elsternwick

Population growth drivers in Elsternwick are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

The population of Elsternwick is estimated at around 11,736 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 849 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,887. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 11,657 following examination of ABS data released in June 2024 and an additional 181 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 4,513 persons per square kilometer, placing Elsternwick within the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate of 7.8% since the census is close to that of its SA4 region (8.7%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 77.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in Elsternwick.

AreaSearch projects future population dynamics based on ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 adjusted to SA2 levels using weighted aggregation methods. By 2041, the suburb is expected to grow by 1,989 persons, reflecting a total increase of 16.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Elsternwick according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis shows Elsternwick recorded around 40 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, approximately 200 homes were approved, with a further 161 approved in FY26 so far. On average, 1.2 new residents arrived per new home over these five years. However, this ratio increased to 14.3 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, indicating growing popularity and potential supply constraints.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $1,371,000, suggesting a focus on the premium market. This year has seen $26.9 million in commercial approvals, reflecting steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Elsternwick records roughly half the building activity per person and ranks among the 30th percentile nationally, implying limited buyer options but strong demand for established homes. New development consists of 15.0% standalone homes and 85.0% attached dwellings, promoting higher-density living and affordability. This represents a significant shift from the current housing mix of 38.0% houses. The area has approximately 549 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its established nature.

Population forecasts indicate Elsternwick will gain 1,933 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Elsternwick has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects likely to affect the area. Notable ones include 25 Sandham Street Townhouses, 10-16 Selwyn Street Mixed-Use Development, 552 Glen Huntly Road Mixed-Use Development, and Seymour & Blanche Townhouses. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Elsternwick exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Elsternwick has a highly educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate was 3.4% as of September 2025, which is below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation was 73.2%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 71.0%.

A significant proportion of residents work from home, with 50.6% doing so according to Census responses. Employment is concentrated in professional & technical (1.7 times the regional average), health care & social assistance, and education & training sectors. Manufacturing employs only 3.7% of local workers compared to Greater Melbourne's 7.2%. Over the year ending September 2025, labour force levels increased by 0.6%, but employment declined by 0.2%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.8 percentage points.

In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced overall employment growth and a smaller increase in unemployment during this period. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Elsternwick's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.3% over five years and 14.6% over ten years, though these are illustrative extrapolations based on current industry-specific growth rates.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Elsternwick suburb has a median taxpayer income of $67,618 and an average income of $108,067 based on the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Nationally, these figures are exceptionally high compared to Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income will be approximately $73,196 and the average income around $116,983, factoring in an 8.25% growth since financial year 2023. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Elsternwick rank highly nationally, between the 78th and 91st percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. Income analysis shows that 29.2% of locals (3,426 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly income category, mirroring the regional trend where 32.8% occupy this bracket. A substantial presence of higher earners is evident, with 36.9% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. High housing costs consume 15.2% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 79th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Elsternwick features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Elsternwick's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 38.3% houses and 61.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Elsternwick was at 31.5%, similar to Melbourne metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.1% and rented ones at 39.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,400, higher than the Melbourne metro average of $2,000, while median weekly rent was $441, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Elsternwick's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,400 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Elsternwick features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 61.4% of all households, including 27.1% couples with children, 26.0% couples without children, and 7.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 38.6%, with lone person households at 33.5% and group households comprising 5.1%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Elsternwick shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Elsternwick is notably higher than national and state averages. Specifically, 55.0% of residents aged 15 and above hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% in Victoria. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 35.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.9%) and graduate diplomas (5.8%). Vocational pathways account for 19.9% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 10.1% and certificates at 9.8%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.5% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 6.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Elsternwick has 61 active public transport stops offering a mix of light rail and bus services. These stops are served by 9 different routes that collectively facilitate 4895 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated excellent, with residents typically located just 153 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commutes are outward-bound. Cars remain the primary mode of transport for 72% of residents, followed by trains at 13% and walking at 6%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 0.9, lower than the regional average.

A significant 50.6% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions (as recorded in the 2021 Census). On average, there are 699 trips daily across all routes, translating to approximately 80 weekly trips per individual stop.

Elsternwick's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Elsternwick's health outcomes show remarkable results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Approximately 69% of Elsternwick's total population (8,136 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%.

Nationally, the average is 55.7%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in Elsternwick, affecting 7.7% and 6.9% of residents respectively. A total of 74.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age residents exhibit low chronic condition prevalence. Elsternwick has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 19.4% (2,276 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Elsternwick was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Elsternwick had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 20.5% speaking a language other than English at home and 30.5% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Elsternwick, comprising 32.0%. However, Judaism was significantly overrepresented at 19.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 1.0%.

Regarding ancestry, the top groups were English (21.9%), Australian (19.9%), and Other (14.1%). Notably, Polish (3.7% vs regional 0.8%), Russian (1.6% vs 0.4%), and Hungarian (1.1% vs 0.3%) were overrepresented.

Elsternwick's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Elsternwick is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and very close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the 75-84 age group is notably over-represented in Elsternwick at 7.3%, while the 35-44 age group is under-represented at 12.2%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group has grown from 4.8% to 7.3% of the population between June 2016 and June 2021. The 15-24 age cohort increased from 11.0% to 12.9%, while the 35-44 age group declined from 14.1% to 12.2% and the 5-14 age group dropped from 11.8% to 10.4%. Population forecasts for Elsternwick indicate significant demographic changes by 2041. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 51%, adding 435 people and reaching a total of 1,292 from the current 856. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 56% of the population growth. Conversely, the 15-24 age cohort is projected to decline by 3 people.