Elsternwick

Population growth drivers in Elsternwick are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

The Elsternwick statistical area's population was estimated at 11,693 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 806 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,887. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 11,657 residents based on ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 4,497 persons per square kilometer, placing Elsternwick in the top 10% nationally according to AreaSearch's assessments. The area's 7.4% growth since the census is within 1.1 percentage points of its SA4 region's 8.5%, indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 77.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in Elsternwick.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted to SA2 levels for areas not covered by the former data. Future population growth is projected above median statistical areas nationally, with Elsternwick expected to grow by 1,981 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 16.8% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Elsternwick according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Elsternwick has recorded around 40 residential properties granted approval annually. Approximately 200 homes have been approved over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, with 161 so far in FY-26. On average, 1.2 new residents arrive per new home each year over these five years, suggesting balanced supply and demand conditions. However, this ratio has increased to 14.3 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, indicating growing popularity and potential supply constraints.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $1,371,000, reflecting a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, there have been $26.9 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Elsternwick records roughly half the building activity per person and ranks among the 30th percentile of areas assessed nationally, suggesting limited buyer options but strong demand for established homes. This lower activity reflects market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 15.0% standalone homes and 85.0% attached dwellings, promoting higher-density living and affordability for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This marks a shift from the current housing mix, which is 38.0% houses, likely due to reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands.

The location has approximately 549 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. Population forecasts indicate Elsternwick will gain 1,966 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Elsternwick has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of fifteen projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable among these are the 25 Sandham Street Townhouses, 10-16 Selwyn Street Mixed-Use Development, 552 Glen Huntly Road Mixed-Use Development, and Seymour & Blanche Townhouses. The following list details those projects considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Elsternwick exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Elsternwick has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 3.4% as of September 2025, which is below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

The area experienced employment stability over the past year, with 6,979 residents employed and an unemployment rate 1.2% lower than Greater Melbourne's. Workforce participation in Elsternwick was higher at 69.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in professional & technical services, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Notably, employment levels in professional & technical services are 1.7 times the regional average.

However, manufacturing employs only 3.7% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 7.2%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census working population data. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels increased by 0.6%, but employment declined by 0.2%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.8 percentage points in Elsternwick. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%. State-level data from 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Elsternwick's employment should increase by 7.3% over five years and 14.6% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to its current employment mix.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Elsternwick had a median taxpayer income of $67,618 and an average income of $108,067 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. Nationally, these figures are exceptionally high, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since the financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $73,196 (median) and $116,983 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family and personal incomes in Elsternwick rank highly nationally, between the 78th and 91st percentiles. Income analysis reveals that 29.2% of locals (3,414 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly income category, mirroring the region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 36.9% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. High housing costs consume 15.2% of income, however, strong earnings still place disposable income at the 79th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Elsternwick features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Elsternwick's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 38.3% houses and 61.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 47.8% houses and 52.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Elsternwick was at 31.5%, similar to Melbourne metro, with the rest being mortgaged (29.1%) or rented (39.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Elsternwick was $2,400, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,396. Median weekly rent in Elsternwick was $441, compared to Melbourne metro's $435. Nationally, Elsternwick's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,400 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher at $441 compared to the national figure of $375.

Elsternwick features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 61.4% of all households, including 27.1% couples with children, 26.0% couples without children, and 7.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 38.6%, with lone person households at 33.5% and group households comprising 5.1%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

Elsternwick shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Elsternwick is notably high, with 55.0% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications. This figure surpasses both the Australian average of 30.4% and the Victorian average of 33.4%. The area's educational advantage is evident in its distribution of qualifications: Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 35.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.9%) and graduate diplomas (5.8%). Vocational pathways account for 19.9% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas making up 10.1% and certificates 9.8%.

Educational participation is also high in Elsternwick, with 28.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.5% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 6.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Elsternwick has 61 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These include train, light rail, and bus services. There are 9 individual routes serving these stops, collectively providing 4895 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 153 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 699 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 80 weekly trips per stop.

Elsternwick's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Elsternwick with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 69% of the total population (8,106 people), compared to 65.8% across Greater Melbourne and 55.7% nationally. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 7.7 and 6.9% of residents respectively, while 74.0% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 74.0% across Greater Melbourne.

Elsternwick has 18.5% of residents aged 65 and over (2,163 people), which is higher than the 16.8% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Elsternwick was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Elsternwick's population showed higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 20.5% speaking a language other than English at home and 30.5% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Elsternwick, comprising 32.0% of its population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented, making up 19.1% compared to 17.5% across Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestral groups were English (21.9%), Australian (19.9%), and Other (14.1%). Significant differences existed in the representation of certain ethnicities: Polish at 3.7% vs regional 3.1%, Russian at 1.6% vs 2.2%, and Hungarian at 1.1% vs 0.8%.

Elsternwick's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Elsternwick as of 38 years is near Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and equivalent to Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Elsternwick has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (6.8%) but fewer individuals aged 35-44 (12.5%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the age group of 75 to 84 increased from 4.8% to 6.8%, while those aged 15 to 24 rose from 11.0% to 12.6%. Conversely, the 35 to 44 cohort decreased from 14.1% to 12.5%, and the 5 to 14 group fell from 11.8% to 10.5%. By the year 2041, Elsternwick's age composition is projected to change significantly. The demographic shift will be led by the 75 to 84 age group, which is expected to grow by 62%, reaching 1,292 from 795. This aging population trend indicates that those aged 65 and above will constitute 60% of projected growth. Meanwhile, numbers in the 0 to 4 age range are anticipated to decrease.