Elsternwick

Population growth drivers in Elsternwick are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on assessments of ABS population statistics for the surrounding region, alongside new address verifications by AreaSearch since the Census, the population of the suburb of Elsternwick is projected to be approximately 11,723 as of May 2026. This represents a growth of 836 people (7.7%) compared to the 2021 Census, when the population stood at 10,887 people. This shift is calculated from a resident population of 11,721, which AreaSearch estimated using the latest ABS ERP release (June 2025) plus 184 validated new addresses added since the Census date. Such a population size translates to a density of 4,508 persons per square kilometer, placing the locality in the top 10% of all areas analyzed by AreaSearch and indicating that local land is highly prized. The 7.7% post-census growth rate of the suburb of Elsternwick trail the broader SA4 region (8.0%) by only 0.3 percentage points, confirming robust local growth. Most of this growth was fueled by net overseas migration, which accounted for roughly 77.0% of the overall population expansion in recent times.

AreaSearch utilizes ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 district, published in 2024 with 2022 serving as the baseline. For SA2 areas lacking this data, projections are sourced from the 2023 VIC State Government Regional/LGA projections, adjusted by aggregating growth weights from LGA down to SA2 boundaries. Age cohort growth rates derived from these aggregations are projected forward for the years 2032 to 2041. Future demographic trends indicate that the suburb of Elsternwick will see population growth exceeding the national median, with aggregated SA2 projections pointing to an increase of 1,847 persons by 2041, representing a total growth of 15.7% over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Elsternwick according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Analysis by AreaSearch of ABS building approvals allocated to this statistical area indicates that Elsternwick averages approximately 41 new home approvals annually. This sums to an estimated 205 residential approvals over the last 5 financial years (from FY-21 to FY-25) and 202 approvals recorded so far in FY-26. Over the last 5 financial years (from FY-21 to FY-25), the market showed balanced conditions with an average of 1.4 new residents per year arriving for each approved home, though this has risen to 7.1 people per dwelling over the last 2 financial years, pointing to rising demand and a potential supply deficit. The average expected construction cost for new properties is $1,371,000, indicating a developer focus on high-end, premium projects. Additionally, commercial approvals reached $26.9 million this financial year, reflecting a moderate pace of commercial development.

Elsternwick register a new dwelling approval rate per person that is about two-thirds of Greater Melbourne's rate, placing it in the 33rd percentile nationwide and limiting housing choice for buyers, which supports demand for existing properties. Approved developments consist of 15.0% detached houses and 85.0% medium to high-density dwellings. This focus on denser projects offers accessible options for entry-level buyers, downsizers, and investors, representing a significant shift from the current housing stock (where houses make up 38.0% of properties) and reflecting a scarcity of development sites alongside changing lifestyle preferences. With approximately 498 people per approved dwelling, the local market is highly mature.

Projections indicate that Elsternwick will add 1,845 residents by 2041 relative to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current building rates do not accelerate, residential supply may not keep pace with population growth, which could increase buyer competition and support property values.

Elsternwick has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Local infrastructure projects, planning choices, and development activity are key drivers of real estate performance. A total of 16 projects have been identified by AreaSearch as having an influence on the local area. Notable projects include the Metro Tunnel Network Upgrades - Sandringham, Werribee and Williamstown Cross-City Service, 25 Sandham Street Townhouses, 10-16 Selwyn Street Mixed-Use Development, and the 552 Glen Huntly Road Mixed-Use Development, with details of the most significant projects listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment positions Elsternwick ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Data aggregated by AreaSearch reveals that Elsternwick features a highly qualified labor force with a strong proportion of professionals and a low unemployment rate of 3.5%. As of March 2026, there are 6,959 employed residents. The unemployment rate sits 1.2% below the Greater Melbourne rate of 4.8%, while the participation rate of 72.5% is comparable to the Greater Melbourne average of 70.2%. Census data showed that a substantial 50.6% of working residents operated from home, though this was likely affected by pandemic lockdowns.

The primary employment fields for residents are professional & technical services, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Local employment is highly concentrated in professional & technical services, with a share 1.7 times that of the broader region. Conversely, manufacturing accounts for only 3.7% of local jobs, compared to 7.2% across Greater Melbourne. Given the ratio of the Census working population to local residents, it is likely that many locals travel outside the area for their employment.

Based on SALM and ABS data aggregated from the surrounding statistical areas, the 12 months leading up to March 2026 saw a 0.4% contraction in the labor force and a 0.6% decline in total employment, causing the unemployment rate to tick up by 0.2 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne, where employment grew by 2.1%, the labor force expanded by 2.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. Projections from Jobs and Skills Australia released in May-25 offer additional guidance on long-term employment trends. These five and ten-year forecasts have been applied to the local workforce mix to estimate future job trends. While national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, trends vary widely by sector. Applying these trends to the local industry mix suggests employment among residents could rise by 7.3% over five years and 14.6% over ten years, assuming a basic weighted extrapolation.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to aggregated ATO postcode statistics for the 2023 financial year, taxpayers in Elsternwick recorded a median income of $67,618 and an average income of $108,067. This is highly elevated on a national scale and compares to $57,688 (median) and $75,164 (average) across Greater Melbourne. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since the 2023 financial year, current estimates as of March 2026 rise to approximately $74,123 for the median and $118,463 for the average. Census data from 2021 ranks local household, family, and personal incomes between the 78th and 91st percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 29.2% of the population (3,423 individuals) earn between $1,500 - 2,999 weekly, which is similar to the metropolitan average of 32.8%. Furthermore, 36.9% of households enjoy high weekly incomes above $3,000, supporting strong consumer activity. High housing costs account for 15.2% of income, yet strong earnings keep disposable income in the 79th percentile, and the local SEIFA index ranks in the 9th decile.

Elsternwick features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

At the latest Census, the housing mix in Elsternwick consisted of 38.3% separate houses and 61.7% other dwellings, such as apartments and semi-detached properties, contrasting with the Greater Melbourne breakdown of 67.9% separate houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Homeownership rates were equivalent to the metropolitan average at 31.5%, with mortgaged properties making up 29.1% and rental properties accounting for 39.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment of $2,400 was notably higher than the Greater Melbourne median of $2,000, while the median weekly rent was $441, compared to the metropolitan median of $390. On a national level, mortgage repayments in Elsternwick exceed the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are higher than the national median of $375.

Elsternwick features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Families make up 61.4% of households, consisting of 27.1% couples with children, 26.0% couples without children, and 7.3% single parent households. The remaining 38.6% of households are non-family arrangements, with single-person households representing 33.5% and group households comprising 5.1%. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Elsternwick shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment levels in Elsternwick are exceptionally high, with 55.0% of residents aged 15+ holding a university degree, compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% across Victoria. This concentration of higher education positions the local workforce well for knowledge-based sectors. Bachelor degrees represent the most common qualification at 35.3%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 13.9% and graduate diplomas at 5.8%. Vocational education accounts for 19.9% of qualifications among residents aged 15+, consisting of advanced diplomas at 10.1% and certificates at 9.8%.

A significant proportion of the population is engaged in studies, with 28.8% of residents enrolled in an educational program. This student cohort includes 8.5% in primary schools, 8.0% in secondary schools, and 6.9% attending tertiary institutions.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport infrastructure consists of 61 active light rail and bus stops within Elsternwick, serviced by 9 distinct routes that accommodate 4,895 weekly passenger trips. Access to transit is highly convenient, with residents living an average of 153 meters from the nearest stop. Given the suburban nature of the area, most workers commute out of the suburb, with private cars remaining the primary transit mode at 72%, followed by trains at 13% and walking at 6%. Household car ownership averages 0.9 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the metropolitan average. A high 50.6% of residents worked from home, based on 2021 Census data collected during pandemic conditions.

Transit services average 699 daily trips across all active routes, which averages out to approximately 80 weekly services per transit stop.

Elsternwick's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health indicators show excellent outcomes for Elsternwick residents, with very low rates of chronic illness and low mortality rates across all age brackets. Private health insurance coverage is exceptionally high, with approximately 69% of the population (8,127 people) covered, compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions reported by residents are mental health conditions and asthma, affecting 7.7% and 6.9% of the population, respectively. Meanwhile, 74.0% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The working-age cohort is particularly healthy. Residents aged 65 and over make up 18.9% of the population (2,215 people), which is higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 15.0%, and health profiles for this senior group are strong, aligning well with national benchmarks.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Elsternwick was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Elsternwick displays higher levels of cultural diversity than most suburban markets, with 30.5% of the population born overseas and 20.5% speaking a non-English language at home. Christianity is the largest religious affiliation, representing 32.0% of residents. The most notable religious demographic is Judaism, which accounts for 19.1% of the population, compared to a Greater Melbourne average of 1.0%.

The primary ancestries reported by residents are English at 21.9%, Australian at 19.9%, and Other at 14.1%. Several European background groups show notable concentration, with Polish ancestry representing 3.7% of the population (compared to 0.8% regionally), Russian ancestry at 1.6% (compared to 0.4%), and Hungarian ancestry at 1.1% (compared to 0.3%).

Elsternwick's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Elsternwick is 38 years, which is close to the Greater Melbourne median of 37 years and matches the national median of 38 years. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Elsternwick has a larger share of residents aged 75 - 84 (7.0%) and a smaller share aged 35 - 44 (13.0%). Since the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 75 to 84 grew from 4.8% to 7.0%, and the 15 to 24 age bracket rose from 11.0% to 12.9%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort declined from 11.8% to 10.5%, and the 35 to 44 cohort decreased from 14.1% to 13.0%. By 2041, demographic shifts are expected to continue, with the 75 to 84 group projected to grow by 49% (402 people), increasing from 820 to 1,223. Seniors aged 65 and over will account for 55% of this projected population growth, while the cohort aged 15 to 24 is expected to decrease by 8.