Elsternwick

Population growth drivers in Elsternwick are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

The suburb of Elsternwick's population is estimated at around 11,736 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 849 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,887 people. The change was inferred from the resident population of 11,657 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 181 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 4,513 persons per square kilometer, which lies in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Elsternwick's 7.8% growth since census positions it within 0.9 percentage points of the SA4 region (8.7%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 77.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above median population growth of statistical areas across the nation is projected, with the suburb expected to grow by 1,969 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 16.1% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Elsternwick according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Elsternwick recorded around 40 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, approximately 203 homes were approved, with a further 163 approved in FY26 so far. On average, 1.2 new residents arrived per new home over these five years, indicating balanced supply and demand conditions. However, this ratio has increased to 13.4 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing popularity and potential supply constraints.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $1,371,000, targeting the premium market with high-end developments. In FY26, there have been $26.9 million in commercial approvals, indicating steady commercial investment activity in the area. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Elsternwick records approximately 56% of the building activity per person and ranks among the 33rd percentile nationally, suggesting limited buyer options while demand for established homes strengthens. This lower activity reflects market maturity and potential development constraints. New development consists of 15.0% standalone homes and 85.0% attached dwellings, focusing on higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix, which is currently 38.0% houses.

The location has approximately 513 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area. Population forecasts estimate Elsternwick will gain 1,890 residents by 2041 if current development rates continue. However, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Elsternwick has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified fifteen projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones are: 25 Sandham Street Townhouses, 10-16 Selwyn Street Mixed-Use Development, 552 Glen Huntly Road Mixed-Use Development, and Seymour & Blanche Townhouses. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Elsternwick exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Elsternwick has a highly educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation, and an unemployment rate of 3.3% as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, there are 6,954 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 1.4% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%.

Census responses indicate that 50.6% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment among residents is concentrated in professional & technical (1.7 times the regional average), health care & social assistance, and education & training sectors. Manufacturing employs only 3.7% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 7.2%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census working population to local population count.

Between December 2024 and December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.3%, alongside a 0.6% employment decline, causing unemployment to rise by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 estimate that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Elsternwick's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.3% over five years and 14.6% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Elsternwick has a median taxpayer income of $67,618 and an average income of $108,067 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is notably higher than Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% from financial year 2023 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $73,196 (median) and $116,983 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Elsternwick rank highly nationally, between the 78th and 91st percentiles. Income analysis shows that 29.2% of locals (3,426 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly income category, similar to the regional average of 32.8%. Higher earners make up a significant portion with 36.9% exceeding $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 15.2% of income, yet strong earnings place disposable income at the 79th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Elsternwick features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Elsternwick's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 38.3% houses and 61.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Elsternwick stood at 31.5%, aligning with the Melbourne metro figure, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.1% and rented dwellings at 39.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Elsternwick was $2,400, exceeding the Melbourne metro average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Elsternwick was recorded at $441, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Elsternwick's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Elsternwick features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 61.4% of all households, including 27.1% couples with children, 26.0% couples without children, and 7.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for 38.6%, with lone person households making up 33.5% and group households comprising 5.1%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Elsternwick shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Elsternwick's educational attainment exceeds national averages: 55.0% of residents aged 15+ have university qualifications (Australian average: 30.4%, Victorian average: 33.4%). Bachelor degrees are most common at 35.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.9%) and graduate diplomas (5.8%). Vocational pathways account for 19.9% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.1% and certificates at 9.8%. Educational participation is high, with 28.8% currently enrolled in formal education: primary (8.5%), secondary (8.0%), tertiary (6.9%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.5% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 6.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Elsternwick has 61 operational public transport stops offering a mix of light rail and bus services. These stops are served by 9 different routes that facilitate 4,895 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is rated highly, with residents typically residing just 153 meters from the nearest stop. Primarily residential, most Elsternwick residents commute outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 72%, followed by trains at 13% and walking at 6%. On average, there are 0.9 vehicles per dwelling, below the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, a significant 50.6% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 699 trips daily, equating to roughly 80 weekly trips per individual stop.

Elsternwick's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Elsternwick's health outcomes show excellent results based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups. The area has a high private health cover rate of approximately 69% (8,136 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common conditions, affecting 7.7% and 6.9% of residents respectively. A total of 74.0% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age residents have a notably low chronic condition prevalence. Elsternwick has 19.6% of residents aged 65 and over (2,300 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong and align with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Elsternwick was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Elsternwick's population showed higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 20.5% speaking a language other than English at home and 30.5% born overseas. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 32.0% of Elsternwick's population. Notably, Judaism was substantially overrepresented at 19.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (21.9%), Australian (19.9%), and Other (14.1%). Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: Polish residents made up 3.7% (compared to the regional 0.8%), Russian 1.6% (vs 0.4%), and Hungarian 1.1% (vs 0.3%) in Elsternwick.

Elsternwick's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Elsternwick was 39 years in 2021, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to Australia's national average of 38 years. Comparing with Greater Melbourne, the 75-84 age group was notably over-represented at 7.4% locally, while the 35-44 age group was under-represented at 12.3%. Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, Elsternwick's 75 to 84 age group grew from 4.8% to 7.4%, and the 15 to 24 age group increased from 11.0% to 12.9%. Conversely, the 35 to 44 age group declined from 14.1% to 12.3%, and the 5 to 14 age group dropped from 11.8% to 10.4%. Population forecasts for Elsternwick in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 49%, adding 429 people, reaching a total of 1,298 from the previous 868. Residents aged 65 and older will represent 56% of this growth. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 age cohort is not projected to change in size by 2041.