Armadale

An assessment of population growth drivers in Armadale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Armadale's population was approximately 10,089 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 753 people, amounting to an 8.1% rise since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 9,336. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,997 in June 2024 and an additional 137 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 4,628 persons per square kilometer, placing Armadale within the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 8.1% growth since the census is within 0.8 percentage points of the national average (8.9%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 92.3% of Armadale's population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilized the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using a weighted aggregation method from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Armadale is expected to increase by 229 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 1.4% over the 17-year period, according to the latest annual ERP population numbers.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Armadale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Armadale averaged approximately 57 new dwelling approvals annually over recent years. Between financial years FY21 and FY25, a total of 285 homes were approved, with an additional 2 approved so far in FY26. The population has declined recently, suggesting that the new supply has kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice.

The average construction value of new homes is $874,000, indicating developers' focus on the premium market with high-end developments. This year, Armadale recorded $44.3 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Armadale shows roughly half the construction activity per person and ranks among the 65th percentile nationally. Recent construction comprises 6.0% detached houses and 94.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns (currently 26.0% houses). This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

With around 297 people per dwelling approval, Armadale exhibits a developing market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Armadale is projected to grow by 137 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Armadale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence regional performance. AreaSearch identified 17 projects potentially impacting the area. Key projects are Amara Armadale, Heirloom Armadale, Mercer Armadale, and 872-874 High Street Armadale. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Armadale demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Armadale has an educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate is 3.0%, lower than the national average of 4.7%.

In the past year, employment grew by 4.4%. As of September 2025, 6,332 residents are employed and the unemployment rate is 1.7% below Greater Melbourne's rate. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's at 68.6%. Dominant sectors include professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Armadale specializes in professional & technical jobs with an employment share of 1.8 times the regional level, but construction shows lower representation at 5.3% compared to the regional average of 9.7%. The ratio of workers per resident is higher than usual, indicating ample local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 4.4%, labour force grew by 4.7%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%. As of 25-November-25 in Victoria, employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, slightly higher than the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Armadale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.4% over five years and 14.9% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that Armadale SA2 has exceptionally high income levels nationally. The median income is $74,816 and the average income is $137,272. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates as of September 2025 would be approximately $83,914 for median income and $153,964 for average income. According to the 2021 Census, individual earnings in Armadale SA2 stand out at the 96th percentile nationally, with weekly earnings of $1,361. Income brackets indicate that 28.8% of locals (2,905 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category. A significant 37.7% earn above $3,000 weekly. Housing accounts for 14.8% of income, and strong earnings rank residents within the 79th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Armadale features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Armadale's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 25.5% houses and 74.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Melbourne metro's 16.9% houses and 83.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Armadale stood at 30.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 23.7% and rented ones at 45.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,479, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,287. The median weekly rent in Armadale was $421, slightly above Melbourne metro's $425. Nationally, Armadale's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,479 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher at $421 versus the national figure of $375.

Armadale features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 54.4% of all households, including 18.7% couples with children, 27.5% couples without children, and 7.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 45.6%, with lone person households at 39.6% and group households comprising 5.9%. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 1.9.

Educational achievement in Armadale places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Armadale's residents aged 15+ have a higher educational attainment than broader benchmarks. 61.1% hold university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and Victoria's 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 39.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (16.9%) and graduate diplomas (5.1%). Vocational pathways account for 17.1% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 10.0% and certificates at 7.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 25.7% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.1% in tertiary education, 6.2% in primary education, and 5.4% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Armadale has 66 active public transport stops. These include train, lightrail, and bus services. There are 8 routes operating in total, which provide 6,561 weekly passenger trips.

The average distance from residents to the nearest transport stop is 136 meters. All routes combined offer an average of 937 trips per day, equating to approximately 99 weekly trips per individual stop.

Armadale's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis shows Armadale's health metrics are strong, with low prevalence of common conditions across all ages. Private health cover rate is high at approximately 83%, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

Mental health issues and asthma are most common, affecting 7.7% and 7.3% respectively. 73.3% report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's figure. Armadale has 20.7% residents aged 65 and over (2,092 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 16.3%. Seniors' health outcomes are strong, outperforming the general population in metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Armadale was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Armadale, surveyed in 2016, had a higher proportion of residents speaking languages other than English at home, with 19.7%, compared to the majority of local markets. Overseas-born individuals constituted 30.0% of Armadale's population. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 41.4%.

Notably, Judaism was overrepresented in Armadale, comprising 7.2% of residents, higher than Greater Melbourne's 5.1%. In terms of ancestry, English (25.0%), Australian (19.2%), and Other (10.3%) were the top groups. Some ethnicities showed notable differences: Polish at 2.4%, Russian at 0.9%, and Hungarian at 0.5%, all matching regional percentages.

Armadale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Armadale is 38 years, close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Armadale has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (20.7%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (7.4%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the percentage of Armadale's population aged 75-84 has grown from 7.2% to 8.8%, while the percentage of residents aged 15-24 increased from 10.6% to 11.9%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 45-54 has declined from 12.6% to 11.4%. By 2041, Armadale's age composition is expected to shift significantly. The number of residents aged 85 and above is projected to double (from 307 to 614), with those aged 65 and above comprising 87% of the population growth. However, population declines are projected for the 55-64 age group and the 0-4 age cohort.