Elsternwick
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Elsternwick are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Elsternwick's population was around 12,792 as of August 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 888 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,904. The change is inferred from ABS estimates showing an estimated resident population of 12,765 in June 2024 and an additional 168 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 4,472 persons per square kilometer, placing Elsternwick in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 7.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region's 7.0%, marking it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 77.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilised VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting them employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicate an above median growth for statistical areas across the nation, with Elsternwick expected to expand by 2,168 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, resulting in a total increase of 16.7% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Elsternwick according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Elsternwick has approved approximately 49 residential properties annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 248 homes were granted approval, with an additional 174 approved in FY26 so far. This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and potential for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction cost of these dwellings is $1,371,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment. In terms of commercial development, Elsternwick has recorded approximately $36.8 million in approvals this financial year, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Elsternwick's new dwelling approval rate per person is around two-thirds lower, placing it among the 31st percentile nationally. This results in relatively constrained buyer choice and supports interest in existing dwellings. The current building activity shows a significant shift towards compact living, with 86% medium and high-density housing compared to just 14% detached houses.

This change reflects decreasing availability of developable sites and evolving lifestyles, offering more diverse and affordable housing options for downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. Elsternwick's population growth is projected to add around 2,141 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases. The area reflects a highly mature market, with approximately 669 people per dwelling approval.

Elsternwick has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified fifteen projects expected to influence the region. Notable initiatives include Seymour & Blanche Townhouses, 25 Sandham Street Townhouses, 590-596 Glen Huntly Road Mixed-Use, and 10-16 Selwyn Street Mixed-Use Development. The following list details projects most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis indicates Elsternwick maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Elsternwick has a highly educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. Its unemployment rate was 3.5% as of June 2021.

Over the past year, employment stability was relatively high. As of June 2025, 7661 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.4%, which is 1.1% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Elsternwick was 69.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The leading employment industries among residents are professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

Professional & technical services show particularly strong specialization, with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level, while manufacturing has lower representation at 3.8% compared to the regional average of 7.2%. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment in Elsternwick increased by 0%, while labour force increased by 1.3%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 1.3 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5% and unemployment rose by 0.5 percentage points during the same period. According to Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025, national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Elsternwick's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.3% over five years and 14.6% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch released postcode-level ATO data for financial year 2022. Elsternwick's median income among taxpayers was $66,890, with an average of $106,903. Nationally, these figures are exceptionally high. Greater Melbourne's median was $54,892 and average was $73,761. Since financial year 2022, Wage Price Index growth has been 12.16%. As of September 2025, current estimates for Elsternwick are approximately $75,024 (median) and $119,902 (average). Census 2021 income data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Elsternwick rank highly nationally, between the 76th and 91st percentiles. Income analysis reveals that 28.7% of residents earn $1,500 - 2,999 weekly, mirroring the metropolitan region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. A substantial proportion, 36.6%, earn above $3,000 weekly, indicating strong economic capacity. High housing costs consume 15.3% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 77th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Elsternwick features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

As of the latest Census, Elsternwick's dwelling structures were 38.1% houses and 61.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 47.8% houses and 52.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Elsternwick was 31.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.6% and rented ones at 40.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,447, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,396. Median weekly rent in Elsternwick was $426, compared to Melbourne metro's $435. Nationally, Elsternwick's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,447 vs Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375 at $426.

Elsternwick features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 60.5% of all households, including 27.0% couples with children, 25.3% couples without children, and 7.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 39.5%, with lone person households at 34.5% and group households comprising 5.0%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

Elsternwick shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Elsternwick is notably high, with 54.9% of residents aged 15 years and above holding university qualifications. This figure surpasses both the national average of 30.4% and the Victorian average of 33.4%. The majority of these qualifications are bachelor degrees at 35.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 14.0% and graduate diplomas at 5.8%. Vocational pathways account for 20.1% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 10.1% and certificates at 10.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.6% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 6.9% pursuing tertiary education. There are seven schools operating within Elsternwick, educating approximately 1,430 students. The area demonstrates significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement, with an ICSEA score of 1100. The educational mix includes three primary schools and four K-12 schools. School places per 100 residents (11.2) fall below the regional average (14.2), indicating that some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Elsternwick has 70 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops offer a mix of train, light rail, and bus services. There are 12 individual routes serving these stops, which collectively provide 11,053 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport in Elsternwick is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 147 meters from the nearest transport stop. On average, there are 1,579 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 157 weekly trips per individual stop.

Elsternwick's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis shows Elsternwick performed well across various health metrics. Prevalence of common conditions was low across all age groups. Private health cover was high at approximately 75% (9,555 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 65.2%.

Nationally, the average is 55.3%. Mental health issues and asthma were most common, affecting 7.9 and 6.8%, respectively. 73.8% reported no medical ailments, close to Greater Melbourne's 74.0%. Elsternwick has 18.5% seniors (2,361 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 16.8%. Senior health outcomes align with the general population.

Elsternwick was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Elsternwick's cultural diversity surpassed most local markets, with 20.4% speaking a language other than English at home and 30.5% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Elsternwick, comprising 32.7%. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented at 18.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 17.5%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (22.1%), Australian (19.9%), and Other (13.9%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Polish (3.6% vs regional 3.1%), Hungarian (1.0% vs 0.8%), and Russian (1.5% vs 2.2%).

Elsternwick's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Elsternwick as of 2021 was 38 years, close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and equivalent to Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Elsternwick had a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (6.8%) but fewer individuals aged 35-44 (12.8%). Between the 2016 Census and the 2021 Census, the percentage of people aged 75 to 84 increased from 4.7% to 6.8%, while those aged 15 to 24 rose from 10.8% to 12.5%. Conversely, the proportion of individuals aged 35 to 44 decreased from 14.4% to 12.8%, and the percentage of people aged 5 to 14 dropped from 11.8% to 10.4%. By 2041, Elsternwick's age composition is projected to change significantly. The number of individuals aged 75 to 84 is expected to grow by 64%, reaching 1,414 from 864. This growth will be led by the demographic shift in the 75 to 84 age group, with those aged 65 and above comprising 60% of projected population growth. Meanwhile, the number of individuals aged 0 to 4 is expected to decrease.