Elsternwick

Population growth drivers in Elsternwick are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

According to assessments conducted by AreaSearch, the resident population of Elsternwick stands at approximately 12,829 as of May 2026. This represents an expansion of 925 residents (7.8%) relative to the 11,904 individuals recorded during the 2021 Census. The estimated growth is calculated using the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population figure of 12,827 alongside 195 validated new addresses registered after the Census. This population level translates to a density of 4,485 persons per square kilometer, placing the suburb within the highest 10% of all Australian locations analyzed and highlighting the intense demand for local land. The 7.8% rate of growth since the census is just 0.2 percentage points below the broader SA4 region (8.0%), illustrating solid local growth dynamics. Overseas migration was the primary engine of this growth, accounting for roughly 79.7% of the total population increase over recent times.

Projections from the ABS and Geoscience Australia, published in 2024 with a 2022 baseline, are utilized for each SA2 region. For locations lacking this specific data, estimates are derived from the 2023 Victorian State Government Regional/LGA projections, adjusted via weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. The age cohort growth rates from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for the period spanning 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, population growth is expected to exceed the national median, with the suburb projected to add 2,030 residents by 2041 based on the most recent annual ERP data, representing a cumulative increase of 15.8% over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Elsternwick according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Elsternwick records approximately 49 residential development approvals per year, summing to 248 residential units over the preceding 5 financial years. In the current FY-26 period, 218 approvals have been registered. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an average of 1.3 individuals relocated to the area for every completed dwelling, suggesting balanced supply and demand conditions, although this ratio has risen sharply to 7.7 people per approved dwelling over the past 2 financial years, pointing to rising local demand and a potential supply deficit. Newly built properties have an average construction value of $620,000, indicating that developers are focusing on the upscale market sector. Additionally, commercial development shows solid momentum with $36.8 million in approvals registered in the current financial year.

In comparison to Greater Melbourne, construction activity per capita in Elsternwick runs at approximately 64%, placing it in the 31st percentile of all areas evaluated nationwide, which limits options for buyers and sustains interest in established homes. Recent residential approvals consist of 14.0% detached houses and 86.0% medium to high-density projects. This concentration of higher-density housing provides more accessible entry options and draws interest from downsizers, property investors, and first-time buyers. This represents a significant shift from the existing residential landscape, where houses comprise 38.0% of dwellings, reflecting a scarcity of development sites and adapting to changing preferences and affordability pressures. The ratio of 676 residents per dwelling approval highlights a mature residential market.

Long-term forecasts indicate that Elsternwick will add 2,028 residents by 2041, based on the latest quarterly calculations from AreaSearch. Given current building trends, residential supply may struggle to keep pace with population expansion, which could intensify competition among buyers and put upward pressure on prices.

Elsternwick has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Local infrastructure projects, major developments, and urban planning decisions represent significant drivers of local real estate performance. A total of 16 projects have been identified by AreaSearch as having potential local impacts. Key projects include the Metro Tunnel Network Upgrades - Sandringham, Werribee and Williamstown Cross-City Service, the townhouses at 25 Sandham Street, the mixed-use development at 10-16 Selwyn Street, and the mixed-use development at 552 Glen Huntly Road, with the following list detailing the most significant undertakings.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Elsternwick has been broadly consistent with national averages

The local labor force is characterized by high levels of education, a strong concentration of professionals, and a low unemployment rate of 3.7%. As of March 2026, 7,626 local citizens are employed, with the unemployment rate tracking 1.1% below the Greater Melbourne level of 4.8%. The workforce participation rate is 73.0%, compared to 70.2% across Greater Melbourne. Census data indicates that 50.1% of working residents worked from home, though this figure should be interpreted in light of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.

The primary employment fields for residents are professional & technical services, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The suburb exhibits a clear concentration in professional & technical services, with its employment share tracking at 1.7 times the metropolitan average. Conversely, manufacturing plays a minor role, employing 3.8% of the workforce compared to 7.2% across the wider region. Comparisons between the census working population and the local resident population suggest that a significant portion of residents travel outside the suburb for employment.

Analysis of SALM and ABS data by AreaSearch indicates that the labour force fell by 0.3% during the 12-month period while employment dropped by 0.5%, which led to an increase of 0.2 percentage points in the unemployment rate. Greater Melbourne, however, showed a different trend with employment growing by 2.1% and the labour force expanding by 2.3%, alongside a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. Forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia regarding national employment starting in May-25 provide additional context for anticipating future demand in Elsternwick. These projections span five and ten year intervals and have been overlaid with local employment data to estimate potential growth trajectories. National employment is expected to grow by 6.6% over five years and by 13.7% over ten years, although these figures vary considerably across different industry sectors. When these sector-specific growth rates are applied to Elsternwick's current employment composition, local employment is projected to rise by 7.3% over five years and by 14.6% over ten years. It is important to note that this calculation uses a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not incorporate localized population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to the latest postcode-level ATO statistics compiled by AreaSearch for the 2023 financial year, local incomes in the Elsternwick SA2 rank in the highest percentile nationally, with a median of $70,145 and an average of $107,405. This is notably higher than the Greater Melbourne median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since the 2023 financial year, estimated figures as of March 2026 would be approximately $76,893 for the median and $117,737 for the average. In the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes all placed in the 76th to 90th national percentiles. Regarding income distribution, the weekly earnings bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 accounts for 28.7% of the population (3,681 residents), compared to 32.8% across the metropolitan area. Substantial wealth is evident, with 36.6% of residents earning weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, which supports high-end retail and local services. Residential costs account for 15.3% of income, yet strong earnings keep disposable income in the 76th percentile, and the local SEIFA income index ranks in the 9th decile.

Elsternwick features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

According to the last Census, the local housing stock consisted of 38.1% detached houses and 61.9% other property types like townhouses and apartments, compared to Greater Melbourne where houses make up 67.9% and other dwellings comprise 32.1%. The home ownership rate was 31.2%, matching the metropolitan average, while 28.6% of properties were mortgaged and 40.2% were rented. The median monthly mortgage payment of $2,447 was higher than the metropolitan average of $2,000, and the median weekly rent was $426 compared to $390 across Greater Melbourne. Nationally, local mortgage costs exceed the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are higher than the national median of $375.

Elsternwick features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Families make up 60.5% of local households, consisting of couples with children (27.0%), couples without children (25.3%), and single-parent households (7.2%). Non-family households account for the remaining 39.5%, with lone person households making up 34.5% and group households comprising 5.0%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is below the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Elsternwick shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in the area is substantially higher than regional and national averages, with 54.9% of residents aged 15 and over holding a university degree, compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% across Victoria. This concentration of advanced qualifications positions the population well for employment in knowledge-based industries. Among those aged 15+, bachelor degrees are the most common at 35.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 14.0% and graduate diplomas at 5.8%. Vocational education accounts for 20.1% of qualifications, comprising advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificate level studies (10.0%).

Participation in study is high, with 28.8% of the local population enrolled in education. This group includes 8.6% in primary schools, 7.8% in secondary institutions, and 6.9% in higher education programs.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport services in the area include 70 active stops, providing a mix of light rail and bus options. These stops are served by 11 separate routes, facilitating 5,815 passenger journeys each week. Accessibility is high, with residents living an average of 148 meters from their nearest transit stop. Given the residential nature of the suburb, most workers commute out of the area. Private vehicles remain the primary transit mode at 72%, followed by trains at 14% and walking at 6%. Average vehicle ownership stands at 0.9 cars per household, which is below the metropolitan average. A high proportion of residents, 50.1%, worked from home according to the 2021 Census, which may reflect pandemic-related conditions.

Transit services run at an average frequency of 830 trips per day across all routes, which equals roughly 83 weekly trips per individual stop.

Elsternwick's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health indicators show very favorable outcomes across the suburb, based on analysis of mortality rates and chronic illness indicators. The prevalence of common health issues is very low across all age brackets, and private health insurance coverage is high at approximately 74% of the population (9,493 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent health issues reported among residents were mental health conditions and asthma, affecting 7.9% and 6.8% of the population respectively. Meanwhile, 73.8% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents demonstrate good health profiles with low rates of chronic illness. Residents aged 65 and over make up 18.5% of the community (2,368 people), compared to 15.0% across Greater Melbourne, with senior health indicators matching national trends seen in the wider population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Elsternwick was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

The suburb displays higher cultural diversity than most compared markets, with 20.4% of residents speaking a language other than English at home and 30.5% born outside Australia. Christianity is the largest reported religion, accounting for 32.7% of the population. The most distinct religious concentration is Judaism, which represents 18.1% of local residents, compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 1.0%.

The primary ancestral backgrounds reported are English (22.1%), Australian (19.9%), and Other (13.9%). Additionally, several European ancestries show higher concentrations relative to the broader region, with Polish heritage representing 3.6% of residents (compared to 0.8% across Melbourne), Russian heritage at 1.5% (compared to 0.4%), and Hungarian heritage at 1.0% (compared to 0.3%).

Elsternwick's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age of residents is 38 years, which is close to the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and matches the national average of 38. The suburb has a higher proportion of residents aged 75 - 84 (6.8%) and a lower proportion of people aged 35 - 44 (13.3%) than Greater Melbourne. Since the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 75 to 84 has risen from 4.7% to 6.8%, and the 15 to 24 age bracket has grown from 10.8% to 12.6%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort declined from 11.8% to 10.3%, and the 35 to 44 cohort decreased from 14.4% to 13.3%. Projections to 2041 indicate further demographic shifts, led by a 52% increase in the 75 to 84 age group, which is expected to rise by 450 people to reach 1,324 from 873. Residents aged 65 and over are projected to account for 55% of total growth, while the number of residents aged 15 to 24 is expected to decrease by 4.