Elsternwick
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Elsternwick are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Elsternwick's population is approximately 12,797 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 893 people, a 7.5% rise from the 2021 Census total of 11,904. The increase is inferred from ABS estimates: 12,765 in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since then. This results in a population density of 4,474 persons per square kilometer, placing Elsternwick among the top 10% nationally. Between 2021 and 2025, Elsternwick's growth rate exceeded its SA4 region's by 0.4%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 77.4% of overall population gains during this period.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 for areas not covered by the former data. Population growth rates are applied across all areas until 2041. By 2041, Elsternwick is projected to have an above-median population growth with an increase of 2,168 persons, representing a 16.7% rise over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Elsternwick according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Elsternwick has recorded approximately 49 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 248 homes have been approved, with a further 177 approved in FY26 so far. On average, about one person per year moves to the area for each dwelling built during this period, indicating that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand and providing ample buyer choice while allowing for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction cost value of new homes being built is $620,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY26, commercial development approvals have totaled $36.8 million, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum in Elsternwick. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Elsternwick has about two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 31st percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. The current new building activity shows that 14.0% are detached houses, while 86.0% are medium to high-density housing. This shift towards compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers, marking a notable change from the area's existing housing composition of 38.0% houses.

This trend reflects decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles that require more diverse and affordable housing options. Elsternwick has around 669 people per dwelling approval, indicating a highly mature market. Population forecasts suggest Elsternwick will gain approximately 2,136 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Elsternwick has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly impact local performance. AreaSearch identified 15 projects likely affecting the area. Notable ones include Seymour & Blanche Townhouses, 25 Sandham Street Townhouses, 590-596 Glen Huntly Road Mixed-Use, and 10-16 Selwyn Street Mixed-Use Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates Elsternwick maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Elsternwick has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate is 3.5%.

Over the past year, it maintained relative employment stability. As of June 2025, 7661 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate at 1.1% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Elsternwick is higher than Greater Melbourne's, at 69.6% compared to 64.1%. Leading employment industries include professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

Professional & technical services show particularly strong specialization, with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level. Conversely, manufacturing has lower representation than average, at 3.8% compared to the regional average of 7.2%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data analysis. Over the year to June 2025, Elsternwick's employment remained unchanged while labour force grew by 1.3%, resulting in a rise in unemployment by 1.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5% and unemployment rose by 0.5 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May 2025) project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Elsternwick's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.3% over five years and 14.6% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Elsternwick's median income among taxpayers is $66,890. The average income in the suburb is $106,903. Nationally, these figures are exceptionally high compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $75,024 (median) and $119,902 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data indicates that household, family and personal incomes in Elsternwick rank highly nationally, between the 76th and 91st percentiles. Income analysis reveals that the largest segment comprises 28.7% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (3,672 residents), which is similar to the metropolitan region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. A substantial proportion of high earners, at 36.6%, indicates strong economic capacity throughout the suburb. High housing costs consume 15.3% of income, but strong earnings still place disposable income at the 77th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Elsternwick features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Elsternwick, as per the latest Census data, 38.1% of dwellings were houses while 61.9% comprised semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Melbourne metro's figures of 47.8% houses and 52.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Elsternwick stood at 31.2%, similar to Melbourne metro, with mortgaged properties accounting for 28.6% and rented dwellings making up 40.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,447, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,396. Median weekly rent in Elsternwick was recorded at $426, slightly lower than Melbourne metro's figure of $435. Nationally, Elsternwick's median monthly mortgage repayment is significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while its median weekly rent is substantially above the national figure of $375.

Elsternwick features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 60.5% of all households, including 27.0% couples with children, 25.3% couples without children, and 7.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 39.5%, with lone person households at 34.5% and group households making up 5.0%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

Elsternwick shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Elsternwick's educational attainment is notably higher than national and state averages. 54.9% of residents aged 15+ have university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and Victoria's 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 35.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.0%) and graduate diplomas (5.8%). Vocational pathways account for 20.1% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.1% and certificates at 10.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 8.6% in primary, 7.8% in secondary, and 6.9% in tertiary education. Elsternwick has a robust network of 7 schools educating approximately 1,430 students, demonstrating significant socio-educational advantages with an ICSEA score of 1100. The educational mix includes 3 primary and 4 K-12 schools. School places per 100 residents (11.2) are below the regional average (14.2), indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Elsternwick shows that there are currently 70 operational transport stops. These stops offer a variety of services including trains, light rail, and buses. There are 12 distinct routes serving these stops, which together facilitate 11,053 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is considered excellent, with residents on average being located just 147 meters from the nearest transport stop. On a daily basis, there are an average of 1,579 trips across all routes, which translates to approximately 157 weekly trips per individual stop.

Elsternwick's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Elsternwick. The prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups is very low. Approximately 75% of the total population (9,559 people) has private health cover, compared to 65.2% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.3%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 7.9% and 6.8% of residents respectively. A total of 73.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.0% across Greater Melbourne. Elsternwick has 18.5% of residents aged 65 and over (2,362 people), which is higher than the 16.8% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Elsternwick was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Elsternwick's cultural diversity was pronounced, with 20.4% speaking a language other than English at home and 30.5% born overseas. Christianity dominated religiously, comprising 32.7%. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented at 18.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 17.5%.

Ancestral makeup saw English (22.1%), Australian (19.9%), and Other (13.9%) as the top groups. Polish (3.6% vs regional 3.1%), Hungarian (1.0% vs 0.8%), and Russian (1.5% vs 2.2%) showed notable divergences in representation.

Elsternwick's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Elsternwick is 38 years, closely matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Elsternwick has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (6.8% vs 5.2%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (12.8% vs 14.9%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, Elsternwick's population aged 75 to 84 increased from 4.7% to 6.8%, while those aged 15 to 24 rose from 10.8% to 12.5%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 35 to 44 decreased from 14.4% to 12.8%, and those aged 5 to 14 dropped from 11.8% to 10.4%. By 2041, Elsternwick's age composition is projected to change significantly. The number of residents aged 75 to 84 is expected to grow by 63%, reaching 1,414 from 865. Those aged 65 and above are projected to comprise 60% of the population growth. Meanwhile, the number of children aged 0 to 4 is expected to decrease by 27%.