Elsternwick

Population growth drivers in Elsternwick are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Elsternwick's population is around 12,859 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 955 people (8.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,904 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,765 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 193 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 4,496 persons per square kilometer, which lies in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch, making land in the area a highly sought resource. Elsternwick's 8.0% growth since the census positions it within 0.7 percentage points of the SA4 region (8.7%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 77.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above-median population growth of national areas is projected, with the area expected to expand by 2,168 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 16.1% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Elsternwick according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Elsternwick has experienced around 49 dwellings receiving development approval each year, totalling 248 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26180 approvals have been recorded. At an average of just 1 new resident per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts, while new homes are being built at an average value of $620,000, revealing that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Additionally, $36.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity.

Relative to Greater Melbourne, Elsternwick records about 62% of the building activity per person while it places among the 31st percentile of areas assessed nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing homes. New building activity shows 14.0% detached dwellings and 86.0% medium and high-density housing. This skew toward compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 38.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The location has approximately 669 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market.

Population forecasts indicate Elsternwick will gain 2,074 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers could encounter growing competition as population increases.

Elsternwick has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 15 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include 25 Sandham Street Townhouses, 10-16 Selwyn Street Mixed-Use Development, 552 Glen Huntly Road Mixed-Use Development, and Seymour & Blanche Townhouses, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Elsternwick exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Elsternwick has a highly educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation and an unemployment rate of only 3.5%. As of December 2025, 7,607 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 1.3% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Based on Census responses, a high 50.1% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include professional and technical, health care and social assistance, and education and training. The area shows particularly strong specialization in professional and technical services, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level. Meanwhile, manufacturing has a limited presence with 3.8% employment compared to 7.2% regionally. While local employment opportunities exist in the area, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of the Census working population relative to the local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw the labour force decrease by 0.3% while employment declined by 0.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Elsternwick. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Elsternwick's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.3% over five years and 14.6% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Elsternwick SA2 is among the top percentile nationally, with the median assessed at $70,145 while the average income stands at $107,405. This contrasts to Greater Melbourne's figures of a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $75,932 (median) and $116,266 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Elsternwick, between the 76th and 90th percentiles nationally. Looking at income distribution, the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 28.7% of the community (3,690 individuals), aligning with regional levels where this cohort likewise represents 32.8%. The locality demonstrates considerable affluence with 36.6% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 15.3% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 76th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Elsternwick features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Elsternwick, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 38.1% houses and 61.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Elsternwick was in line with that of Melbourne metro, at 31.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (28.6%) or rented (40.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Melbourne metro average at $2,447, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $426, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Elsternwick's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Elsternwick features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 60.5% of all households, comprising 27.0% couples with children, 25.3% couples without children, and 7.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 39.5%, with lone person households at 34.5% and group households comprising 5.0% of the total. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Elsternwick shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Elsternwick significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 54.9% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 30.4% in Australia and 33.4% in VIC. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 35.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.0%) and graduate diplomas (5.8%). Vocational pathways account for 20.1% of qualifications among those aged 15+ – advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (10.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.6% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 6.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 70 active transport stops operating within Elsternwick, comprising a mix of light rail and buses. These stops are serviced by 11 individual routes, collectively providing 5,815 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 148 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 72%, with 14% by train and 6% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 0.9 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. A high 50.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 830 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 83 weekly trips per individual stop.

Elsternwick's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across Elsternwick, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 74% of the total population (9,515 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 7.9% and 6.8% of residents, respectively, while 73.8% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 19.3% of residents aged 65 and over (2,485 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Elsternwick was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Elsternwick is more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 20.4% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 30.5% born overseas. The main religion in Elsternwick is Christianity, which makes up 32.7% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Judaism, which comprises 18.1% of the population, substantially higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Elsternwick are English, comprising 22.1% of the population, Australian, comprising 19.9% of the population, and Other, comprising 13.9% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Polish is notably overrepresented at 3.6% of Elsternwick (vs 0.8% regionally), Russian at 1.5% (vs 0.4%) and Hungarian at 1.0% (vs 0.3%).

Elsternwick's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The 39-year median age in Elsternwick is somewhat higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and similarly very close to the 38-year national average. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 75 - 84 cohort is notably over-represented (7.3% locally), while 35 - 44 year-olds are under-represented (12.6%). Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 4.7% to 7.3% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 10.8% to 12.7%. Conversely, the 35 to 44 cohort has declined from 14.4% to 12.6% and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 11.8% to 10.2%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Elsternwick. Leading the demographic shift, the 75 to 84 group will grow by 51% (480 people), reaching 1,414 from 933. Demographic aging continues as residents 65 and older represent 56% of anticipated growth. On the other hand, the 15 to 24 cohort is projected to decline by 3 people.