Elsternwick
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Elsternwick are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Elsternwick's population is approximately 12,792 as of August 2025. This figure represents an increase of 888 people, a 7.5% rise from the 2021 Census which reported a population of 11,904. This change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,765 in June 2024 and an additional 168 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is 4,472 persons per square kilometer, placing Elsternwick in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Elsternwick's growth rate exceeded that of its SA4 region (7.0%), making it a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 77.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest population numbers, Elsternwick is projected to expand by 2,168 persons to 2041, a 16.7% increase over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Elsternwick according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Elsternwick has recorded approximately 93 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, with 466 homes approved over the past five financial years from FY20 to FY25, and 173 so far in FY26. On average, 1.0 person per year moves to the area for each dwelling built during these years, indicating that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new homes being built is $1,371,000, suggesting developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments.

Additionally, $36.8 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, reflecting high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Elsternwick has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 31st percentile of areas assessed nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice that supports interest in existing dwellings. New building activity shows 14.0% detached houses and 86.0% medium to high-density housing, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition of 38.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options. With around 669 people per dwelling approval, Elsternwick reflects a highly mature market.

Population forecasts indicate Elsternwick will gain 2,141 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Elsternwick has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 15 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Seymour & Blanche Townhouses, 25 Sandham Street Townhouses, 590-596 Glen Huntly Road Mixed-Use Development, and 10-16 Selwyn Street Mixed-Use Development. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis indicates Elsternwick maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Elsternwick has a highly educated workforce with professional services being prominently represented. The unemployment rate in June 2025 was 3.5%.

Over the past year, there has been relative employment stability. As of June 2025, 7,661 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.1% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Elsternwick was higher at 69.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The leading employment industries among residents included professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

Professional & technical services showed particularly strong specialization with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level. Conversely, manufacturing had lower representation at 3.8%, compared to the regional average of 7.2%. While local employment opportunities exist, many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment in Elsternwick increased by 0.0% while labour force grew by 1.3%, leading to an unemployment rise of 1.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5%, labour force growth of 4.0%, and an unemployment increase of 0.5 percentage points. Providing broader context, state-level data for Victoria as of Sep-25 showed employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. This was compared to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%, and the state's employment growth outpaced the national average of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 projected that national employment would expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Elsternwick's employment mix suggested local growth of approximately 7.3% over five years and 14.6% over ten years, though this was a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and did not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Elsternwick's median income among taxpayers is $66,890, with an average of $106,903. Nationally, these figures are exceptionally high compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, estimates for March 2025 would be approximately $73,653 (median) and $117,711 (average). Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Elsternwick rank highly nationally, between the 76th and 91st percentiles. Income analysis reveals that the largest segment comprises 28.7% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (3,671 residents), similar to the metropolitan region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. A substantial proportion of high earners, 36.6%, have incomes above $3,000 per week, indicating strong economic capacity in the suburb. High housing costs consume 15.3% of income, but with strong earnings disposable income still ranks at the 77th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Elsternwick features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Elsternwick's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 38.1% houses and 61.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's figures of 47.8% houses and 52.1% other dwellings. Home ownership levels in Elsternwick were similar to those in Melbourne metro at 31.2%. Mortgaged dwellings accounted for 28.6%, while rented dwellings made up 40.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,447, exceeding Melbourne metro's average of $2,396. Median weekly rent figures stood at $426 in Elsternwick compared to Melbourne metro's $435. Nationally, Elsternwick's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Elsternwick features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 60.5% of all households, including 27.0% couples with children, 25.3% couples without children, and 7.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 39.5%, with lone person households at 34.5% and group households comprising 5.0%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

Elsternwick shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Elsternwick's educational attainment is notably high, with 54.9% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% in Victoria. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 35.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.0%) and graduate diplomas (5.8%). Vocational pathways account for 20.1% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.1% and certificates at 10.0%. Educational participation is high, with 28.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 8.6% in primary, 7.8% in secondary, and 6.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Elsternwick has a robust network of 7 schools educating approximately 1,430 students, comprising 3 primary and 4 K-12 schools. School places per 100 residents (11.2) are below the regional average (14.2), indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. The area demonstrates significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement, with an ICSEA score of 1100.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Elsternwick has 70 active public transport stops. These include train, light rail, and bus services. There are 12 individual routes operating in total.

They facilitate 11,053 weekly passenger trips combined. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents located an average of 147 meters from the nearest stop. Daily service frequency averages 1,579 trips across all routes, equating to about 157 weekly trips per individual stop.

Elsternwick's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Elsternwick. Prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups is very low. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 75% of the total population (9,555 people), compared to 65.2% across Greater Melbourne and the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 7.9 and 6.8% of residents respectively. Seventy-three point eight percent of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.0% across Greater Melbourne. Eighteen point five percent of residents are aged 65 and over (2,361 people), which is higher than the 16.8% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Elsternwick was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Elsternwick had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 20.4% speaking a language other than English at home and 30.5% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Elsternwick, comprising 32.7%. However, Judaism was significantly overrepresented at 18.1%, compared to 17.5% regionally.

The top three ancestral groups were English (22.1%), Australian (19.9%), and Other (13.9%). Notable differences existed for Polish (3.6% vs regional 3.1%), Hungarian (1.0% vs 0.8%), and Russian (1.5% vs 2.2%) groups.

Elsternwick's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Elsternwick in 2021 was 38 years, which is close to Greater Melbourne's average age of 37 and equivalent to Australia's median age of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Elsternwick had a higher percentage of residents aged 75-84 (6.8%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (12.8%). Between the 2016 Census and the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 75 to 84 increased from 4.7% to 6.8%, while those aged 15 to 24 increased from 10.8% to 12.5%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 35 to 44 decreased from 14.4% to 12.8%, and those aged 5 to 14 fell from 11.8% to 10.4%. By 2041, Elsternwick's age composition is expected to change significantly. The number of residents aged 75 to 84 is projected to grow by 64%, reaching 1,414 from 864. This growth will be led by the demographic shift towards an aging population, with those aged 65 and above comprising 60% of the projected growth. Conversely, the number of residents aged 0 to 4 is expected to fall by approximately 0.