Elsternwick

Population growth drivers in Elsternwick are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Elsternwick's population is around 12,806 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 902 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,904 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,765 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 170 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 4,477 persons per square kilometer, which lies in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Elsternwick's growth rate of 7.6% since census positions it within 0.9 percentage points of the SA4 region (8.5%). Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 77.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above median population growth is projected, with the area expected to expand by 2,168 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 16.6% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Elsternwick according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Elsternwick has recorded approximately 49 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 248 homes were approved, with an additional 179 approved so far in FY26. The average number of people moving to the area per dwelling built over these years is approximately one person.

This indicates that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new homes being built is around $620,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY26 alone, Elsternwick has recorded approximately $36.8 million in commercial development approvals, indicating strong commercial development momentum compared to previous years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Elsternwick has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and places among the 31st percentile of areas assessed nationally. This results in relatively constrained buyer choice, supporting interest in existing dwellings.

New building activity shows that approximately 14.0% are detached houses, with the remaining 86.0% being medium to high-density housing. This shift towards compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This is a notable change from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently around 38.0% houses. Elsternwick reflects a highly mature market, with approximately 669 people per dwelling approval. Population forecasts indicate that Elsternwick will gain around 2,127 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Elsternwick has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects that may affect this region. Notable ones include 25 Sandham Street Townhouses, 10-16 Selwyn Street Mixed-Use Development, 552 Glen Huntly Road Mixed-Use Development, and Seymour & Blanche Townhouses. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment positions Elsternwick ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Elsternwick has a highly educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate in September 2025 was 3.5%. Over the past year, employment has remained relatively stable.

As of that month, 7636 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.1% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation was fairly standard at 73.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, a high 50.1% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training sectors.

Elsternwick has particular employment specialization in professional & technical services with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level. Conversely, manufacturing shows lower representation at 3.8% compared to the regional average of 7.2%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels increased by 0.6%, but employment declined by 0.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Elsternwick's employment should increase by 7.3% over five years and 14.6% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections against the local employment mix.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch released postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023. Elsternwick SA2's median income among taxpayers was $70,145 with an average of $107,405. Nationally, these figures are exceptionally high compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. As of September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% would be approximately $75,932 for the median and $116,266 for the average. Census 2021 income data shows Elsternwick's household, family, and personal incomes rank highly nationally, between the 76th and 90th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that 28.7% of residents earn between $1,500 - 2,999 weekly, mirroring the metropolitan region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. A substantial proportion, 36.6%, earn above $3,000 weekly, indicating strong economic capacity in the suburb. High housing costs consume 15.3% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 76th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Elsternwick features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Elsternwick, as per the latest Census, 38.1% of dwellings were houses while 61.9% were other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In contrast, Melbourne metropolitan area had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Elsternwick stood at 31.2%, similar to Melbourne metro's rate, with mortgaged properties at 28.6% and rented ones at 40.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,447, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Elsternwick was $426, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Elsternwick's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,447 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Elsternwick features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 60.5% of all households, including 27.0% couples with children, 25.3% couples without children, and 7.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 39.5%, with lone person households at 34.5% and group households comprising 5.0%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Elsternwick shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Elsternwick's residents aged 15+ have a higher university qualification rate of 54.9%, surpassing Australia's 30.4% and Victoria's 33.4%. This advantage offers opportunities for knowledge-based pursuits. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 35.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.0%) and graduate diplomas (5.8%). Vocational pathways account for 20.1%, with advanced diplomas at 10.1% and certificates at 10.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.6% in primary, 7.8% in secondary, and 6.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Elsternwick has 70 active public transport stops offering a mix of light rail and bus services. These are served by 11 individual routes, providing a total of 5815 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 148 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward, primarily using cars (72%), followed by trains (14%) and walking (6%). The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 0.9, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 50.1% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 830 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 83 weekly trips per individual stop.

Elsternwick's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Elsternwick's health outcomes show exceptional results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Approximately 74% of Elsternwick's total population (9,476 people) have private health cover, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 7.9% and 6.8% of residents respectively. A total of 73.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. Elsternwick has 18.5% of residents aged 65 and over (2,363 people), which is higher than Greater Melbourne's 14.9%. Health outcomes among seniors in the area are particularly strong and align with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Elsternwick was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Elsternwick had a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 20.4% speaking a language other than English at home and 30.5% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 32.7%. However, Judaism was significantly overrepresented at 18.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (22.1%), Australian (19.9%), and Other (13.9%). Notably, Polish (3.6% vs regional 0.8%), Russian (1.5% vs 0.4%), and Hungarian (1.0% vs 0.3%) groups were overrepresented.

Elsternwick's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Elsternwick as of 2021 was 38 years, similar to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Elsternwick had a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (6.8% vs. 5.9%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (12.8% vs. 15.0%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, Elsternwick's age composition changed: the 75-84 group increased from 4.7% to 6.8%, the 15-24 group rose from 10.8% to 12.5%, while the 35-44 group decreased from 14.4% to 12.8% and the 5-14 group fell from 11.8% to 10.4%. By 2041, Elsternwick's age composition is projected to change significantly. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 63%, reaching 1,414 people from 865. Those aged 65 and above are projected to comprise 60% of the population growth in Elsternwick between 2021 and 2041. Conversely, the number of children aged 0-4 is expected to decrease by 1%.