Elsternwick

Population growth drivers in Elsternwick are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Elsternwick's population is 12,829 as of May 2026. This shows an increase of 925 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 11,904. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates: 12,827 in June 2025 and 195 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 4,485 persons per square kilometer, placing Elsternwick in the top 10% nationally by AreaSearch's assessment. The area's 7.8% growth since census is close to its SA4 region's 8.0%, indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 79.7% of recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Elsternwick is projected to grow by 2,030 persons, reflecting a 15.8% increase over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Elsternwick according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Elsternwick has received approximately 49 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 248 homes. As of FY-26209 approvals have been recorded. On average, one new resident arrives per year for each new home built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction cost value of new homes is $620,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment.

In FY-26, commercial approvals amounting to $36.8 million have been registered, demonstrating high local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Elsternwick records around 64% of building activity per person and ranks in the 31st percentile nationally. This results in relatively constrained buyer choice, driving interest in existing homes. New building activity comprises 14.0% detached dwellings and 86.0% medium and high-density housing, attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers due to affordable entry pathways. The current housing mix is 38.0% houses, reflecting reduced development site availability and shifting lifestyle demands.

Elsternwick has approximately 669 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the location will gain 2,028 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Elsternwick has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly impact local performance. AreaSearch identified 16 projects likely affecting the area. Notable projects include Metro Tunnel Network Upgrades - Sandringham, Werribee and Williamstown Cross-City Service, 25 Sandham Street Townhouses, 10-16 Selwyn Street Mixed-Use Development, and 552 Glen Huntly Road Mixed-Use Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Elsternwick exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Elsternwick has a highly educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. Its unemployment rate is 3.5%. As of December 2025, 7,607 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.3% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation stands at 72.6%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. Census responses indicate that 50.1% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Dominant employment sectors include professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area specializes in professional & technical jobs, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level.

Manufacturing's presence is limited at 3.8%, compared to the regional average of 7.2%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data comparing working population to local population. In the year ending June 2025, Elsternwick's labour force decreased by 0.3% and employment declined by 0.6%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. Conversely, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Elsternwick's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.3% over five years and 14.6% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ended June 2023 shows that Elsternwick SA2 has one of the highest incomes nationally, with a median assessed income of $70,145 and an average income of $107,405. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164 in the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% from financial year ended June 2023 to March 2026, estimated median income would be approximately $76,893 and average income around $117,737 as of March 2026. According to Census 2021 data, Elsternwick's household, family, and personal incomes rank between the 76th and 90th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 28.7% (3,681 individuals) earn between $1,500 - $2,999 per week, aligning with regional levels where this cohort represents 32.8%. The area demonstrates considerable affluence with 36.6% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 15.3% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 76th percentile nationally. Elsternwick's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Elsternwick features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Elsternwick's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 38.1% houses and 61.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Elsternwick was at 31.2%, similar to Melbourne metro's level. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (28.6%) or rented (40.2%). In the area, the median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,447, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $426, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Elsternwick's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Elsternwick features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 60.5% of all households, including 27.0% couples with children, 25.3% couples without children, and 7.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 39.5%, with lone person households at 34.5% and group households comprising 5.0%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Elsternwick shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Elsternwick is notably higher than national and state averages. As of the latest data, 54.9% of residents aged 15 and above hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% in Victoria. The majority of these are bachelor degrees (35.1%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.0%) and graduate diplomas (5.8%). Vocational pathways account for 20.1% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 10.1% and certificates at 10.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.6% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 6.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Elsternwick has 70 active public transport stops operating, consisting of a mix of light rail and bus services. These stops are served by 11 different routes, collectively facilitating 5,815 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 148 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 72%, followed by train at 14% and walking at 6%. Vehicle ownership averages 0.9 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 50.1% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 830 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 83 weekly trips per individual stop.

Elsternwick's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Elsternwick's health outcomes data shows exceptional results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence, with very low prevalence across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is approximately 74% of the total population (9,493 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. Nationally, it averages at 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common conditions, affecting 7.9 and 6.8% respectively, while 73.8% report being completely free of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 18.5% of residents aged 65 and over (2,368 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, ranking in line with the general population nationally.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Elsternwick was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Elsternwick had a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 20.4% speaking a language other than English at home and 30.5% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 32.7%. Judaism was significantly overrepresented at 18.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (22.1%), Australian (19.9%), and Other (13.9%). Polish (3.6% vs regional 0.8%), Russian (1.5% vs 0.4%), and Hungarian (1.0% vs 0.3%) were notably overrepresented ethnic groups.

Elsternwick's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Elsternwick in 2021 was 38 years, close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and equivalent to Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Elsternwick had a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (6.8%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (13.3%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the percentage of the population aged 75 to 84 grew from 4.7% to 6.8%, while those aged 15 to 24 increased from 10.8% to 12.6%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 5 to 14 declined from 11.8% to 10.3%, and those aged 35 to 44 decreased from 14.4% to 13.3%. By 2041, Elsternwick's age composition is expected to change significantly. The number of residents aged 75 to 84 is projected to grow by 52%, reaching 1,324 from 873. Those aged 65 and above are expected to comprise 55% of the population growth. Meanwhile, the number of residents aged 15 to 24 is expected to decrease by 4%.