Ashburton (Vic.)

Ashburton is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Ashburton's population was around 8,521 as of February 2026, according to AreaSearch's analysis. This figure reflects an increase of 569 people, representing a 7.2% rise since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,952. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 8,404 as of June 2024 and an additional 137 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level results in a density ratio of approximately 3,000 persons per square kilometer, placing Ashburton in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, ending in 2026, Ashburton has shown resilient growth patterns with an average annual growth rate of 0.5%, outperforming its SA3 area. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth during this period.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, lower quartile growth is anticipated nationally, with Ashburton expected to grow by 319 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of approximately 2.4% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Ashburton when compared nationally

Ashburton has recorded approximately 94 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 471 homes were approved, with an additional 26 approved so far in FY26. The average number of people moving to the area per dwelling built over these years is 0.2.

This indicates that supply meets or exceeds demand, offering greater buyer choice and supporting potential population growth above projections. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $384,000. In FY26, $16.3 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating steady commercial investment activity. When compared to Greater Melbourne, Ashburton shows 108.0% higher development activity per person. This offers buyers greater choice, though development activity has moderated in recent periods. This activity is well above the national average, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. New development consists of 45.0% detached dwellings and 55.0% medium and high-density housing.

This trend towards denser development provides accessible entry options, appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, currently at 76.0% houses. Ashburton reflects a developing area, with approximately 161 people per approval. Looking ahead, Ashburton is expected to grow by 201 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Ashburton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

AreaSearch has identified 13 projects that could impact the area significantly. Key projects include Ashburton Place, formerly known as Ashburton Shopping Centre site; Ashburton Baptist Church Redevelopment; Ashburton Village Precinct Structure Plan, also referred to as Ashburton Activity Centre; and Alamein Line Duplication, specifically the section from Ashburton to Alamein. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Ashburton has been broadly consistent with national averages

Ashburton's workforce is highly educated with strong professional services representation. Its unemployment rate was 4.4% in September 2025, below Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.6%.

As of September 2025, 4,661 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, similar to Greater Melbourne's workforce participation rate of 71.0%. Census responses showed that 50.5% of residents worked from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Dominant employment sectors include professional & technical (1.6 times the regional average), health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction is under-represented at 5.3% compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.7%.

Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census data on working population vs resident population. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 3.6%, labour force by 2.9%, reducing unemployment by 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.0%, labour force growth of 3.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ashburton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.5% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income in Ashburton SA2 is $63,688, with an average of $94,781, based on the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is notably higher than Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Considering a Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $68,942 (median) and $102,600 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household incomes rank at the 94th percentile with $2,743 weekly. Income analysis shows that 34.8% of Ashburton residents earn above $4,000 per week, contrasting with regional levels where earnings between $1,500 and $2,999 dominate at 32.8%. This indicates a substantial proportion of high earners (46.5% above $3,000/week), suggesting strong economic capacity in the suburb. After accounting for housing costs, residents retain 86.8% of their income, reflecting robust purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Ashburton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Ashburton, as per the latest Census, 76.3% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 23.6% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ashburton stood at 38.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.5% and rented ones at 25.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,000, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. The median weekly rent in Ashburton was $455, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Ashburton's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Ashburton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.7% of all households, including 45.5% couples with children, 21.8% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 22.3%, with lone person households at 19.8% and group households making up 2.4%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Ashburton demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Ashburton's educational attainment significantly exceeds broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15+, 53.6% hold university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and Victoria's 33.4%. This is reflected in the area's strong position for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are most common at 33.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.2%) and graduate diplomas (6.0%).

Vocational pathways account for 18.1% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 9.5% and certificates at 8.6%. Educational participation is notably high, with 32.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (10.6%), secondary education (9.3%), and tertiary education (7.6%).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ashburton has 30 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by eight different routes that collectively facilitate 3,357 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as good, with residents typically living within 221 meters of the nearest stop. In this predominantly residential area, most commuting is outward-bound. The car remains the primary mode of transportation, used by 79% of residents. Train use stands at 10%, and walking accounts for 5%.

On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, 50.5%, work from home, which may be reflective of COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 479 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 111 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ashburton's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Ashburton's health metrics closely match national benchmarks, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are seen at a standard level across both young and old age cohorts. Private health cover is exceptionally high, with approximately 69% of the total population (5,853 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 7.6% and 7.0% of residents respectively. 72.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 18.6% of residents aged 65 and over (1,586 people), higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ashburton was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ashburton's population showed greater cultural diversity than most local markets, with 28.8% born overseas and 23.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Ashburton, comprising 44.3%. Judaism was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, at 0.6% versus 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (22.8%), Australian (21.4%), and Chinese (10.0%). Hungarian, Sri Lankan, and Greek ethnicities showed notable representation in Ashburton, at 0.6%, 0.8%, and 2.7% respectively, matching or slightly exceeding regional percentages.

Ashburton's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Ashburton's median age is 41 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ashburton has a notably over-represented 15-24 cohort (16.4%) and under-represented 25-34 cohort (8.1%). According to the 2021 Census, Ashburton's 15-to-24 age group grew from 12.8% to 16.4%, while the 65-to-74 cohort increased from 8.7% to 9.8%. Conversely, the 5-to-14 cohort declined from 14.7% to 12.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Ashburton's age profile will change significantly. The 75-to-84 cohort is projected to grow by 39%, adding 209 residents to reach 741. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 71% of the population growth, with anticipated declines in the 0-to-4 and 55-to-64 cohorts.