Ashburton (Vic.)

Ashburton is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Ashburton's population is around 8,521 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 569 people (7.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,952 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 8,404 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 137 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 3,000 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Ashburton has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a 0.5% compound annual growth rate, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilizing the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, lower quartile growth of national areas is anticipated, with the area expected to grow by 319 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 2.4% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Ashburton when compared nationally

Ashburton has recorded around 94 residential properties granted approval annually, with 471 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 26 so far in FY-26. With an average of only 0.2 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is meeting or surpassing demand, providing greater buyer choice and supporting potential for population growth above projections, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $384,000. Additionally, $16.3 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating steady commercial investment activity.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Ashburton shows 108.0% higher development activity (per person), offering buyers greater choice, though development activity has moderated in recent periods. This activity is well above average nationally, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. New development consists of 45.0% detached dwellings and 55.0% detached dwellings and 55.0% medium and high-density housing. This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 76.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. At around 161 people per approval, Ashburton reflects a developing area.

Looking ahead, Ashburton is expected to grow by 201 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Ashburton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 13 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Ashburton Place (former Ashburton Shopping Centre site), Ashburton Baptist Church Redevelopment, Ashburton Village Precinct Structure Plan (Ashburton Activity Centre), and Alamein Line Duplication (Ashburton to Alamein section), with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Ashburton has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Ashburton features a highly educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of 4.7%, and 2.5% estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 4,667 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is in line with Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Based on Census responses, a high 50.5% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include professional and technical, health care and social assistance, and education and training. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in professional and technical services, with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average. Conversely, construction is under-represented, with only 5.3% of Ashburton's workforce compared to 9.7% in Greater Melbourne. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 2.5% while the labour force increased by 2.5%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, and unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Ashburton. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Ashburton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.5% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The Ashburton SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $63,688 and an average of $94,781 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is extremely high nationally, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $68,942 (median) and $102,600 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household incomes rank exceptionally at the 94th percentile ($2,743 weekly). Income analysis reveals the $4000+ earnings band captures 34.8% of the community (2,965 individuals), differing from patterns across regional levels where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 32.8%. The substantial proportion of high earners (46.5% above $3,000/week) indicates strong economic capacity throughout this suburb. After housing costs, residents retain 86.8% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Ashburton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Ashburton, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 76.3% houses and 23.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Ashburton was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 38.9%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (35.5%) or rented (25.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Melbourne metro average at $3,000, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $455, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Ashburton's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Ashburton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 77.7% of all households, comprising 45.5% couples with children, 21.8% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.3%, with lone person households at 19.8% and group households comprising 2.4% of the total. The median household size of 2.8 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Ashburton demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Ashburton significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 53.6% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 30.4% in Australia and 33.4% in VIC. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 33.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.2%) and graduate diplomas (6.0%). Vocational pathways account for 18.1% of qualifications among those aged 15+ – advanced diplomas (9.5%) and certificates (8.6%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 7.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 30 active transport stops operating within Ashburton, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 8 individual routes, collectively providing 3,357 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 221 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 79%, with 10% by train and 5% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. A high 50.5% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 479 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 111 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ashburton's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Ashburton's health metrics sit close to national benchmarks, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A fairly standard level of common health conditions is seen across both young and old age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 69% of the total population (5,853 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 7.6% and 7.0% of residents, respectively, while 72.6% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 18.6% of residents aged 65 and over (1,586 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ashburton was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ashburton was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 28.8% of its population born overseas and 23.5% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Ashburton is Christianity, which makes up 44.3% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.6% of the population, compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Ashburton are English, comprising 22.8% of the population, Australian, comprising 21.4% of the population, and Chinese, comprising 10.0% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Hungarian is notably overrepresented at 0.6% of Ashburton (vs 0.3% regionally), Sri Lankan at 0.8% (vs 0.8%) and Greek at 2.7% (vs 2.7%).

Ashburton's population is slightly older than the national pattern

At 41 years, Ashburton's median age is significantly above the Greater Melbourne average of 37 as well as somewhat older than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 15 - 24 cohort is notably over-represented (16.4% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (8.1%). Following the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 12.8% to 16.4% of the population, while the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 8.7% to 9.8%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 14.7% to 12.2%. Demographic modeling suggests Ashburton's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 39%, adding 209 residents to reach 741. Demographic aging continues as residents 65 and older represent 71% of anticipated growth. On the other hand, population declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 55 to 64 cohorts.