Ashburton (Vic.)

Ashburton is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Ashburton's population, as of May 2026, is approximately 8,515 people. This figure represents an increase of 563 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,952. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 8,471 in June 2025 and an additional 145 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,998 persons per square kilometer, placing Ashburton in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Ashburton's growth rate of 7.1% since the 2021 census exceeded that of the SA3 area (6.6%), indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 68.4% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving this growth.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilizes VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, lower quartile growth is anticipated nationally, with Ashburton expected to grow by 280 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 2.8% in total over the 16 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Ashburton when compared nationally

Ashburton has recorded approximately 94 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 471 homes were approved, with an additional 57 approved so far in FY26. On average, around 0.2 people moved to the area each year for each dwelling built during these years, indicating that supply has been meeting or exceeding demand.

The average construction cost value of new properties is $384,000. In terms of commercial approvals, $16.3 million have been registered in FY26, reflecting steady investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ashburton shows 108.0% higher development activity per person. This increased activity offers buyers greater choice, although it has moderated in recent periods. Nationally, Ashburton's development activity is well above average, indicating strong developer confidence in the area. In terms of dwelling types, new development consists of 45.0% detached dwellings and 55.0% medium to high-density housing. This shift towards denser development provides accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers.

It also reflects decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles that require more diverse and affordable housing options. With around 161 people per approval, Ashburton is considered a developing area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Ashburton is expected to grow by 236 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Ashburton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects likely to influence the area. Notable projects include Ashburton Place, formerly known as Ashburton Shopping Centre site; Ashburton Baptist Church Redevelopment; Ashburton Village Precinct Structure Plan, also referred to as Ashburton Activity Centre; and Alamein Line Duplication, specifically the Ashburton to Alamein section. The following list details those projects most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Ashburton has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Ashburton has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 4.7% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.5%.

As of December 2025, 4667 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation at 69.9%, in line with Greater Melbourne's figures. According to Census responses, 50.5% of residents worked from home. Dominant employment sectors include professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Ashburton has a notable concentration in professional & technical services, with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average.

However, construction is under-represented, with only 5.3% of Ashburton's workforce compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.7%. Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 2.5%, while labour force also grew by 2.5%, keeping unemployment broadly flat. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ashburton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.5% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The Ashburton SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $63,688 and an average income of $94,781 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is notably high compared to Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $69,815 (median) and $103,899 (average). In 2021 Census figures, household incomes in Ashburton ranked at the 94th percentile with $2,743 weekly. Income analysis showed that 34.8% of individuals earned over $4,000 per week, differing from regional patterns where the $1,500 - 2,999 band dominated with 32.8%. The high proportion of residents earning above $3,000 weekly indicates strong economic capacity in the suburb. After housing costs, residents retained 86.8% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 9th decile.

Ashburton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census evaluated Ashburton's dwelling structure as 76.3% houses and 23.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ashburton was 38.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.5% and rented dwellings at 25.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,000, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Ashburton was $455, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Ashburton's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $3,000 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Ashburton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.7% of all households, including 45.5% couples with children, 21.8% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 22.3%, with lone person households at 19.8% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Ashburton demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Ashburton's educational attainment exceeds national averages: 53.6% of residents aged 15+ hold university qualifications compared to Australia's 30.4%. Locally, this is higher than Victoria's 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 33.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.2%) and graduate diplomas (6.0%). Vocational pathways account for 18.1% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 9.5% and certificates at 8.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 32.5% currently enrolled in formal education: 10.6% in primary, 9.3% in secondary, and 7.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ashburton has 30 active public transport stops serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are covered by eight different routes, offering a total of 3,357 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 221 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 79%, while 10% use trains and 5% walk to their destinations. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling in Ashburton.

According to the 2021 Census, 50.5% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 479 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 111 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ashburton's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Ashburton's health metrics closely align with national benchmarks, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are seen at a standard level across both young and old age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 69% of the total population (5,849 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and 55.7% nationally.

The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 7.6% and 7.0% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 72.6%, report being completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents exhibit low chronic condition prevalence. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 17.7% (1,508 people), compared to 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ashburton was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ashburton had a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 28.8% of its population born overseas and 23.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Ashburton, accounting for 44.3% of its population. Judaism, however, was notably overrepresented, comprising 0.6% compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestry groups were English (22.8%), Australian (21.4%), and Chinese (10.0%). There were also notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Hungarian was overrepresented at 0.6% (vs 0.3% regionally), Sri Lankan was equally represented at 0.8%, and Greek was similarly represented at 2.7%.

Ashburton's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Ashburton's median age is 41 years, which is notably higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ashburton has a significantly higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (15.8%) and a lower proportion aged 25-34 (9.1%). According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group increased from 12.8% to 15.8%, while the 5-14 cohort decreased from 14.7% to 12.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Ashburton's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 40%, adding 196 residents to reach 684. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 67% of the population growth, while the 0-4 and 55-64 cohorts are projected to decline in population.