Ashburton (Vic.)

Ashburton is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Ashburton's population was approximately 8,481 as of November 2025, marking a rise of 529 individuals (6.7%) since the 2021 Census which recorded 7,952 people. This increase is inferred from the estimated resident population of 8,403 in June 2024 and an additional 133 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio was around 2,986 persons per square kilometer, placing Ashburton in the upper quartile compared to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, from 2015 to 2025, Ashburton exhibited a resilient growth pattern with a compound annual growth rate of 0.5%, outperforming its SA3 area. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth during this period. AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilized VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made via a weighted aggregation method from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on population projections, lower quartile growth is anticipated nationally, with Ashburton expected to grow by 319 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 2.8% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Ashburton when compared nationally

Ashburton has recorded approximately 94 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 471 homes were approved, with an additional 25 approved so far in FY26. The average number of people moving to the area per dwelling built over these years is approximately 0.2.

This indicates that supply meets or exceeds demand, providing greater buyer choice and supporting potential population growth above projections. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $384,000. In FY26, $16.3 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ashburton shows 108.0% higher development activity per person, offering buyers greater choice. However, development activity has moderated in recent periods. This activity is well above the national average, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. New development consists of 45.0% detached dwellings and 55.0% medium to high-density housing.

This trend towards denser development provides accessible entry options, appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 76.0% houses. This change indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. Ashburton has around 161 people per approval, reflecting its developing status. Looking ahead, Ashburton is expected to grow by approximately 241 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Ashburton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 13 such projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable among these are Ashburton Place (formerly known as Ashburton Shopping Centre site), Ashburton Baptist Church Redevelopment, Ashburton Village Precinct Structure Plan (Ashburton Activity Centre), and Alamein Line Duplication (Ashburton to Alamein section). The following list provides details of those projects most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Ashburton has been broadly consistent with national averages

Ashburton has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 4.4% as of September 2025, below Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.6%. As of September 2025, 4,661 residents were employed with a workforce participation rate similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Dominant employment sectors include professional & technical (at 1.6 times the regional average), health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction is under-represented, at 5.3% compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.7%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 3.6%, labour force by 2.9%, reducing unemployment by 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.0% and a 0.3 percentage point increase in unemployment. State-level data (VIC) to 25-Nov shows employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but local projections suggest Ashburton's employment should increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.5% over ten years based on its current employment mix.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The Ashburton SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $61,918 and an average income of $93,828 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is notably higher than Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $69,447 (median) and $105,237 (average). In 2021 Census figures, household incomes ranked at the 94th percentile with $2,743 weekly. Income analysis showed that 34.8% of individuals earned over $4,000 weekly. This differed from regional patterns where earnings between $1,500 and $2,999 dominated with 32.8%. A substantial proportion, 46.5%, earned above $3,000 weekly, indicating strong economic capacity in the suburb. After housing costs, residents retained 86.8% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 9th decile.

Ashburton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Ashburton, as per the latest Census, 76.3% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 23.6% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. This contrasts with Melbourne metro's figures of 55.5% houses and 44.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ashburton stood at 38.9%, similar to Melbourne metro, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 35.5% and rented dwellings making up 25.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,000, aligning with Melbourne metro's average, while median weekly rent was $455 compared to Melbourne metro's $451. Nationally, Ashburton's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, reported on 27th March 2021, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375, as per data from June 2020.

Ashburton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.7% of all households, including 45.5% couples with children, 21.8% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.3%, with lone person households at 19.8% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

Ashburton demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Ashburton's educational attainment significantly exceeds broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15+, 53.6% hold university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and Victoria's 33.4%. This educational advantage positions the area well for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are most common at 33.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.2%) and graduate diplomas (6.0%).

Vocational pathways account for 18.1% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas comprising 9.5% and certificates 8.6%. Educational participation is notably high, with 32.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (10.6%), secondary education (9.3%), and tertiary education (7.6%).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Ashburton shows that there are currently 30 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops offer a mix of train and bus services. There are 8 individual routes servicing these stops, which collectively provide 3,397 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as good, with residents typically located 219 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, across all routes, there are 485 trips per day, equating to approximately 113 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Ashburton is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Ashburton shows a lower prevalence of common health conditions among its general population compared to the national average, with rates closer to the national average for older and at-risk cohorts. Approximately 68% of Ashburton's total population (5784 people) has private health cover, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 77.7%, but lower than the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions in Ashburton are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 7.6% and 7.0% of residents respectively.

A total of 72.6% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 73.8% across Greater Melbourne. As of a recent study (date not specified), 18.2% of Ashburton's residents are aged 65 and over (1542 people), which is lower than the 19.4% in Greater Melbourne. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Ashburton require more attention compared to the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ashburton was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ashburton's population was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 28.8% born overseas and 23.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Ashburton as of 2016 census data, comprising 44.3%. However, Judaism was notably overrepresented, making up 0.6% of Ashburton's population compared to 0.9% across Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestry groups were English (22.8%), Australian (21.4%), and Chinese (10.0%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Hungarian was overrepresented at 0.6% in Ashburton versus 0.3% regionally, Sri Lankan was at 0.8% versus 0.7%, and Greek was at 2.7% versus 3.4%.

Ashburton's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Ashburton's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne's average, Ashburton has a notably over-represented cohort of 15-24 year-olds at 16.0%, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 8.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 15 to 24 has grown from 12.8% to 16.0%, and those aged 65 to 74 have increased from 8.7% to 9.8%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 5 to 14 has declined from 14.7% to 12.8%. Demographic modeling indicates that Ashburton's age profile will significantly change by 2041. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 50%, adding 247 residents to reach 741. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 78% of the population growth, while declines are anticipated for the 55-64 and 0-4 age cohorts.