Ashburton

Ashburton is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the population of Ashburton is estimated at around 8,515 people. This reflects a growth of 563 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 7,952. The current resident population estimate by AreaSearch is 8,471, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 144 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,916 persons per square kilometer for Ashburton, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate of 7.1% since the 2021 census exceeded that of the SA3 area at 6.6%, indicating its status as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends suggest lower quartile growth for Australian statistical areas, with Ashburton expected to grow by 281 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total gain of 2.8% over the 16-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Ashburton when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Ashburton has averaged around 94 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 471 homes. So far in FY-26, 57 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.2 new residents per year arrive for every new home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that new construction is matching or outpacing demand. The average expected construction cost value of new properties is $871,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

In FY-26, there have been $16.3 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ashburton has 108.0% more construction activity per person, offering buyers greater choice. However, development activity has moderated in recent periods. This activity is significantly above the national average, indicating robust developer interest in the area. New building activity shows 44.0% detached houses and 56.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a shift towards compact living to offer affordable entry pathways and attract downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix of 76.0% houses. The location has approximately 161 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Looking ahead, Ashburton is expected to grow by 237 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Ashburton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Fourteen projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area, with key ones including Ashburton Place, Ashburton Baptist Church Redevelopment, Glen Iris Community Health Hub, and Ashburton Village Precinct Structure Plan (Ashburton Activity Centre).

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Ashburton remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Ashburton has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 4.7% as of December 2025. Employment grew by an estimated 2.5% over the past year based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of December 2025, 4667 residents were employed with an unemployment rate in line with Greater Melbourne's 4.8%. Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 50.5% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Leading employment industries among residents include professional & technical services, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

Ashburton has a notably high concentration in professional & technical services with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average. Conversely, construction has limited presence with 5.3% employment compared to the regional average of 9.7%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over a 12-month period ending December 2025, employment increased by 2.5% alongside labour force growth of 2.5%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable at around 4.7%. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 2.4%, labour force grow by 2.8%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% expansion in national employment over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ashburton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.5% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 reports Ashburton's median taxpayer income at $61,918 and average at $93,828. Nationally, these figures are exceptionally high compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Since financial year 2023, Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% suggests current estimates would be approximately $67,875 (median) and $102,854 (average) as of March 2026. Census 2021 data shows Ashburton's household incomes rank at the 94th percentile with weekly earnings of $2,743. Income distribution indicates 34.8% of residents earn over $4000 annually, contrasting with the broader area where the $1500 - $2999 range is predominant at 32.8%. Economic strength is evident with 46.5% of households earning over $3000 weekly, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 86.8% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Ashburton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Ashburton, as per the latest Census, 76.3% of dwellings were houses while 23.6% comprised semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ashburton stood at 38.9%, with mortgaged properties at 35.5% and rented ones at 25.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,000, surpassing Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Ashburton was $455, higher than Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Ashburton's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Ashburton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.7% of all households, including 45.5% couples with children, 21.8% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 22.3%, with lone person households at 19.8% and group households making up 2.4%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Ashburton demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Ashburton's educational attainment is notably higher than national averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 53.6% hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% in Victoria. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 33.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.2%) and graduate diplomas (6.0%). Vocational pathways account for 18.1% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 9.5% and certificates at 8.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 32.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary, 9.3% in secondary, and 7.6% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ashburton has 30 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 8 different routes that together facilitate 3,357 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as good, with residents typically located 221 meters from the nearest stop. In this predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation for 79% of residents, while 10% use trains and 5% walk. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, 50.5%, work from home, which may be partly due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 479 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 111 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ashburton's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Ashburton. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were found to be low, particularly among younger cohorts. Private health cover was exceptionally high at approximately 64% of the total population (5,430 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in Ashburton were asthma and mental health issues, impacting 7.6 and 7.0% of residents respectively. 72.6% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 17.9% of residents aged 65 and over (1,524 people), higher than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors were above average but ranked lower nationally compared to the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ashburton was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ashburton's population was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 28.8% of its residents born overseas and 23.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Ashburton, comprising 44.3% of the population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented, making up 0.6% of Ashburton's population compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestry groups are English (22.8%), Australian (21.4%), and Chinese (10.0%). There are also notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Hungarian is overrepresented at 0.6% in Ashburton compared to 0.3% regionally, Sri Lankan remains consistent at 0.8%, and Greek is similarly represented at 2.7%.

Ashburton's median age exceeds the national pattern

Ashburton's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and somewhat older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ashburton has a notably over-represented cohort of individuals aged 15-24 (15.8%) and an under-represented cohort of those aged 25-34 (9.2%). According to the 2021 Census, the percentage of the population in the 15-24 age group has grown from 12.8% to 15.8%, while the percentage of individuals aged 5-14 has declined from 14.7% to 12.4%. Demographic modeling indicates that Ashburton's age profile will change significantly by the year 2041, with the strongest projected growth in the 75-84 cohort (40%), adding 195 residents to reach a total of 689. The demographic aging trend continues as individuals aged 65 and older represent 66% of anticipated population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for those aged 0-4 and 55-64 years.