Ashburton

Ashburton is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of the Ashburton statistical area (Lv2) is around 8,501 people. This figure reflects an increase of 549 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,952 people in the area. The latest estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of the ABS's ERP data release from June 2024, indicating a resident population of 8,404. This level of population results in a density ratio of 2,911 persons per square kilometer, placing Ashburton in the upper quartile relative to other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, ending in 2021, Ashburton has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.5%, outperforming its SA3 area. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth during this period.

AreaSearch's projections for the Ashburton (SA2) are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024, using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a weighted aggregation method to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, lower quartile growth is anticipated for Australian statistical areas, with Ashburton expected to grow by 319 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total gain of 2.6% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Ashburton when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Ashburton has averaged around 94 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 471 homes. So far in FY-26, 26 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.2 new residents per year arrive per new home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25. This indicates that new construction is matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options while enabling population growth.

The average value of new properties constructed is $871,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, there have been $16.3 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Comparatively, Ashburton has 108.0% more construction activity per person than Greater Melbourne, indicating robust developer interest in the area and offering buyers greater choice. However, development activity has moderated in recent periods. New building activity shows 44.0% detached houses and 56.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a shift towards compact living that offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix of 76.0% houses. The location has approximately 161 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Ashburton is expected to grow by 221 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Ashburton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 14 projects that could affect the region. Notable initiatives include Ashburton Place, formerly known as Ashburton Shopping Centre; Ashburton Baptist Church Redevelopment; Glen Iris Community Health Hub; and Ashburton Village Precinct Structure Plan within the Ashburton Activity Centre. The following list details those most likely to have a significant influence.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Ashburton remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Ashburton has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 4.4% as of an unspecified past year.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.6%. As of September 2025, there were 4,661 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, 0.2% below Greater Melbourne's rate. Workforce participation was broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries among residents included professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

Professional & technical employment levels were at 1.6 times the regional average, while construction had limited presence with 5.3% employment compared to 9.7% regionally. Employment opportunities appeared limited locally based on Census working population vs resident population count. In a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 3.6%, labour force grew by 2.9%, and unemployment rate fell by 0.7 percentage points. This contrasted with Greater Melbourne where employment rose by 3.0%, labour force grew by 3.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 showed VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ashburton's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.5% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Ashburton suburb had a median income among taxpayers of $61,918 and an average of $93,828. Nationally, these figures are extremely high. In Greater Melbourne, the median was $57,688 with an average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ended June 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $67,026 (median) and $101,569 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, Ashburton's household incomes rank at the 94th percentile with a weekly income of $2,743. Income distribution shows 34.8% of residents (2,958 individuals) earning over $4,000 annually, differing from broader areas where the $1,500 - $2,999 category is predominant at 32.8%. Economic strength is evident with 46.5% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting increased consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 86.8% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Ashburton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Ashburton, as per the latest Census, 76.3% of dwellings were houses while 23.6% comprised semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. In Melbourne metropolitan area, this stood at 55.5% houses and 44.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ashburton was 38.9%, similar to Melbourne metro's figure, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.5% and rented ones at 25.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,000, aligning with Melbourne metro's average. The median weekly rent stood at $455 compared to Melbourne metro's $3,000 and $451 respectively. Nationally, Ashburton's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Ashburton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.7% of all households, including 45.5% couples with children, 21.8% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 22.3%, with lone person households at 19.8% and group households making up 2.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

Ashburton demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Ashburton's educational attainment is notably higher than national averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 53.6% have university qualifications, surpassing Australia's 30.4% and Victoria's 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 33.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.2%) and graduate diplomas (6.0%). Vocational pathways account for 18.1% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 9.5% and certificates at 8.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 32.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 7.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows that Ashburton has 29 currently operating public transport stops. These include both train and bus services. There are 8 different routes serving these stops, which together facilitate 3,357 weekly passenger trips.

The report rates the area's transport accessibility as good, with residents on average located just 221 meters from their nearest stop. Across all routes, service frequency averages at 479 trips per day. This equates to around 115 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Ashburton is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Ashburton demonstrates a low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population, with rates closer to the national average for older and at-risk cohorts. Approximately 64% of Ashburton's total population (5,421 people) has private health cover, compared to 75.8% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 7.6% and 7.0% of residents respectively.

72.6% of Ashburton's residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 73.8% in Greater Melbourne. The area has 18.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,547 people), lower than the 19.4% in Greater Melbourne. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those in the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ashburton was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ashburton's population showed higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 28.8% born overseas and 23.5% using a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Ashburton, accounting for 44.3%. Judaism's representation was notably higher here compared to Greater Melbourne, standing at 0.6%.

The top three ancestral groups were English (22.8%), Australian (21.4%), and Chinese (10.0%). Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: Hungarian (0.6% vs regional 0.3%), Sri Lankan (0.8% vs 0.7%), and Greek (2.7% vs 3.4%) were notably more prevalent in Ashburton than the broader area.

Ashburton's median age exceeds the national pattern

Ashburton's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ashburton has a notably higher proportion of 15-24 year-olds (16.0% vs 14.9%) and a lower proportion of 25-34 year-olds (8.2% vs 10.7%). According to the 2021 Census, Ashburton's population aged 15 to 24 grew from 12.8% in 2016 to 16.0%, while those aged 65 to 74 increased from 8.7% to 9.8%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 5 to 14 decreased from 14.7% to 12.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Ashburton's age profile. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 50%, adding 247 residents to reach 741. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 78% of the population growth, while declines are anticipated for those aged 55-64 and 0-4 years.