Ashburton

Ashburton is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Ashburton is around 8,521, an increase of 569 people (7.2%) since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 7,952. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 8,404 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 137 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,918 persons per square kilometer, placing Ashburton in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Ashburton has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.5%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation for areas not covered by ABS data.

Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends anticipate lower quartile growth, with Ashburton expected to grow by 319 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 2.4% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Ashburton when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis shows Ashburton averaged approximately 94 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 471 homes. As of FY26, 26 approvals have been recorded. Between FY21 and FY25, an average of 0.2 new residents arrived per new home constructed. This suggests new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

The average construction value of new properties is $871,000, indicating developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY26, there have been $16.3 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ashburton has 108.0% more construction activity per person, offering buyers greater choice while showing robust developer interest in the area. New building activity comprises 44.0% detached houses and 56.0% attached dwellings, suggesting a shift towards compact living that attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix of 76.0% houses. The location has approximately 161 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Looking ahead, Ashburton is projected to grow by 201 residents by 2041, with new housing supply expected to comfortably meet demand at current development rates, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Looking ahead, Ashburton is expected to grow by 201 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Ashburton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 14 projects that could affect the region. Notable projects include Ashburton Place (former Ashburton Shopping Centre site), Ashburton Baptist Church Redevelopment, Glen Iris Community Health Hub, and Ashburton Village Precinct Structure Plan (Ashburton Activity Centre). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Ashburton remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Ashburton has an educated workforce with strong professional services representation. Unemployment rate is 4.4%, with estimated employment growth of 3.6% in the past year (AreaSearch data). As of September 2025, 4,661 residents are employed, with unemployment at 4.7%-0.2% below Greater Melbourne's rate.

Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. Census shows 50.5% work from home, considering Covid-19 impacts. Leading industries include professional & technical (1.6 times regional average), health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction has limited presence at 5.3%, compared to 9.7% regionally.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities. Over a year, employment increased by 3.6%, labour force by 2.9%, reducing unemployment by 0.7 percentage points (AreaSearch data). In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0%, labour force grow by 3.3%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years (May-25 projections). Applying these to Ashburton's mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.5% over ten years, though this is an illustrative extrapolation not accounting for local population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates Ashburton's median income among taxpayers is $61,918. The average income for the suburb is $93,828. Nationally, these figures are exceptionally high compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Ashburton would be approximately $67,026 (median) and $101,569 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household incomes in Ashburton rank at the 94th percentile with a weekly income of $2,743. Income distribution data reveals that 34.8% of the population (2,965 individuals) fall within the $4000+ income range, differing from the broader area where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 32.8%. Economic strength is evident with 46.5% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 86.8% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Ashburton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Ashburton, as recorded in the latest Census, 76.3% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 23.6% consisting of semi-detached properties, apartments, and other types. This compares to Melbourne metro's figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ashburton stood at 38.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.5% and rented dwellings at 25.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,000, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Ashburton was $455, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Ashburton's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Ashburton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.7% of all households, including 45.5% couples with children, 21.8% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 22.3%, with lone person households at 19.8% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Ashburton demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Ashburton's educational attainment is notably high, with 53.6% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications, exceeding Australia's 30.4% and Victoria's 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 33.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.2%) and graduate diplomas (6.0%). Vocational pathways account for 18.1%, with advanced diplomas at 9.5% and certificates at 8.6%. Educational participation is high, with 32.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.6% in primary, 9.3% in secondary, and 7.6% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 7.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ashburton has 30 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by eight different routes that collectively facilitate 3,357 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents typically residing 221 meters from the nearest stop. Primarily residential, most Ashburton residents commute outward. Cars remain the dominant mode of transportation at 79%, while 10% use trains and 5% walk. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 50.5% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 479 trips daily across all routes, equating to around 111 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ashburton's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Ashburton. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were found to be low, particularly in younger cohorts. Private health cover was exceptionally high at approximately 64% of the total population (5,434 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions were asthma and mental health issues, impacting 7.6 and 7.0% of residents respectively. A total of 72.6% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 18.6% of residents aged 65 and over (1,584 people), higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors were above average but ranked lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ashburton was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ashburton, as per the census conducted on the 9th of August, 2016, exhibited a higher degree of cultural diversity compared to most local areas, with 28.8% of its population being born overseas and 23.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was identified as the predominant religion in Ashburton, accounting for 44.3% of the population. However, Judaism showed an overrepresentation in Ashburton, comprising 0.6% of the population compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups were English (22.8%), Australian (21.4%), and Chinese (10.0%). There were notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Hungarian was overrepresented at 0.6%, Sri Lankan remained relatively balanced at 0.8%, and Greek also showed no significant difference at 2.7%.

Ashburton's median age exceeds the national pattern

Ashburton's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and somewhat older than Australia's median of 38. The 15-24 age group is notably over-represented in Ashburton at 16.4%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 8.1%. According to the Census conducted on 27 August 2021, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 12.8% to 16.4%, and the 65 to 74 cohort has grown from 8.7% to 9.8%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group has declined from 14.7% to 12.2%. Demographic modeling suggests that Ashburton's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 cohort is projected to grow by 40%, adding 212 residents to reach 741. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 70% of the population growth, while declines are anticipated for the 0 to 4 and 55 to 64 age groups.