Ashburton

Ashburton is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Ashburton is around 8,482 people. This reflects an increase of 530 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,952. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 8,404 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 133 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of approximately 2,904 persons per square kilometer, placing Ashburton in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Ashburton has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with an average annual growth rate of 0.5%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends anticipate lower quartile growth, with the suburb expected to grow by approximately 319 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of around 2.8% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Ashburton when compared nationally

Ashburton has averaged approximately 94 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 471 homes. As of FY26, 20 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.2 new residents per year have arrived per new home between FY21 and FY25, indicating that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction value of new properties is $871,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment.

This financial year has seen $16.3 million in commercial approvals, reflecting moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ashburton has 108.0% more construction activity per person, offering buyers greater choice while showing robust developer interest. New building activity comprises 44.0% detached houses and 56.0% attached dwellings, attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This shift reflects reduced development site availability and changing lifestyle demands. The location has approximately 161 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. By 2041, Ashburton is projected to grow by 240 residents, with current development rates comfortably meeting demand and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Looking ahead, Ashburton is expected to grow by 240 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Ashburton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 14 projects that may affect this region. Notable ones include Ashburton Place (former Ashburton Shopping Centre site), Ashburton Baptist Church Redevelopment, Glen Iris Community Health Hub, and the Ashburton Village Precinct Structure Plan (Ashburton Activity Centre). The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

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The labour market in Ashburton demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Ashburton has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented. The unemployment rate was 4.5% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 3.9%.

As of June 2025, 4646 residents were employed, with a 0.2% lower unemployment rate than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%. Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading industries included professional & technical (1.6 times the regional average), health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction had limited presence at 5.3%, compared to the regional average of 9.7%.

Employment opportunities seemed limited locally based on Census data. In the year ending Sep-22, employment increased by 3.9% while labour force grew by 3.1%, reducing unemployment by 0.8 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% growth over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ashburton's mix suggests local employment could increase by 7.1% in five years and 14.5% in ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2022 shows Ashburton's median income among taxpayers was $61,918. The average income was $93,828. Nationally, these figures are extremely high compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% from financial year ended June 2022 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $69,447 (median) and $105,237 (average). Census data from 2021 shows Ashburton's household incomes rank at the 94th percentile with a weekly income of $2,743. Income distribution data indicates that 34.8% of the population, equating to 2,951 individuals, fall within the $4000+ income range, unlike the broader area where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 32.8%. Economic strength is evident with 46.5% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After accounting for housing costs, residents retain 86.8% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Ashburton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Ashburton's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 76.3% houses and 23.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Melbourne metro's 55.5% houses and 44.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ashburton was 38.9%, similar to Melbourne metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.5% and rented ones at 25.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,000, aligning with Melbourne metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $455, compared to Melbourne metro's $3,000 and $451 respectively. Nationally, Ashburton's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Ashburton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 77.7% of all households, including 45.5% couples with children, 21.8% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.3%, with lone person households at 19.8% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

Ashburton demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Ashburton's educational attainment is notably higher than broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15+, 53.6% hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% in Victoria. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 33.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.2%) and graduate diplomas (6.0%). Vocational pathways account for 18.1% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 9.5% and certificates at 8.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 32.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 7.6% pursuing tertiary education. Ashburton's three schools have a combined enrollment of 1,047 students as of the latest data available. The area demonstrates exceptional educational performance with an ICSEA score of 1154, placing local schools among the most advantaged nationally. All three schools focus exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. School places per 100 residents stand at 12.3, below the regional average of 19.2, suggesting some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Ashburton shows that there are currently 30 active transport stops operating. These include a mix of train and bus services. The area is served by 8 individual routes which collectively provide 3,397 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good with residents typically located approximately 219 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 485 trips per day across all routes, equating to around 113 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Ashburton is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Ashburton shows a lower prevalence of common health conditions among its general population compared to national averages, with rates closer to the nation's average for older and at-risk cohorts. Approximately 64% (5,409 people) of Ashburton's total population has private health cover, higher than Greater Melbourne's 77.7%, but lower than the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions in Ashburton are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 7.6% and 7.0% of residents respectively.

A majority, 72.6%, report being completely free from medical ailments, slightly lower than Greater Melbourne's 73.8%. Ashburton has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 18.2% (1,543 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 19.4%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Ashburton require more attention than the broader population.

Ashburton was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ashburton's population, as per the 2016 Census, showed high cultural diversity with 28.8% born overseas and 23.5% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 44.3%. Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.9%.

Top ancestry groups were English (22.8%), Australian (21.4%), and Chinese (10.0%). Notable divergences included Hungarian (0.6% vs regional 0.3%), Sri Lankan (0.8% vs 0.7%), and Greek (2.7% vs 3.4%).

Ashburton hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Ashburton's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ashburton has a notably higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (16.0%) and a lower proportion aged 25-34 (8.2%). According to the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 increased from 12.8% to 16.0%, while those aged 65-74 rose from 8.7% to 9.8%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 5-14 decreased from 14.7% to 12.7%. Demographic modeling indicates significant changes in Ashburton's age profile by 2041. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 51%, adding 249 residents to reach 741. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 77% of the population growth, while declines are anticipated for those aged 55-64 and 0-4 years.