Carnegie

Population growth drivers in Carnegie are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, Carnegie's estimated population is around 20,315. This reflects an increase of 2,406 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,909. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 20,220 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 344 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 5,505 persons per square kilometer, placing Carnegie in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Carnegie's growth of 13.4% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA4 region at 8.5% and the national average, marking it as a growth leader. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 92.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking forward, significant population increase is forecast, with the Carnegie statistical area (Lv2) expected to grow by 6,035 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 29.1% in total over these 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Carnegie among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Carnegie had approximately 97 dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 489 homes were approved, with an additional 64 in FY-26 so far. Each new home constructed attracted an average of 2.4 people over the past five financial years, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

Developers focused on premium market segments, with new homes valued at approximately $667,000 on average. In FY-26, there have been $23.0 million in commercial approvals, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carnegie has 19.0% less new development per person but ranks among the 57th percentile nationally for new developments. New development consists of 12.0% standalone homes and 88.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a trend towards denser development that caters to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This shift contrasts with the current housing mix (32.0% houses), indicating reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

With around 275 people per dwelling approval, Carnegie indicates a growing market. By 2041, AreaSearch estimates Carnegie's population will grow by approximately 5,914 residents. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Carnegie has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 31 projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives include Housing Choices Carnegie - Egan Street, Eighty East, Lord Reserve Pavilion Redevelopment, and Carnegie Station & Level Crossing Removal, with the following list detailing those of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Carnegie remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Carnegie has an educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate was 4.4% in the past year, showing a growth of 0.5%.

As of September 2025, 12,589 residents were employed at an unemployment rate of 0.2% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%, with workforce participation at 69.0%. Dominant sectors include professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training, with professional & technical being particularly strong at 1.5 times the regional level. However, construction is under-represented at 6.0% compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.7%. Employment opportunities seem limited locally based on Census data.

Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 0.5% while labour force grew by 1.0%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.0%. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from May-25 project employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carnegie's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.3% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Carnegie has a median taxpayer income of $58,809 and an average income of $78,028 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is notably higher than Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $63,661 (median) and $84,465 (average). According to the 2021 Census, personal income ranks at the 79th percentile ($1,005 weekly), while household income sits at the 57th percentile. The earnings profile shows that 31.8% of locals (6,460 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to the metropolitan region where 32.8% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 16.6% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 58th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Carnegie displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Carnegie's housing structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 32.0% houses and 68.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 47.8% houses and 52.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carnegie was at 26.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.7% and rented ones at 43.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,040, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,396. The median weekly rent figure in Carnegie was $395, compared to Melbourne metro's $435. Nationally, Carnegie's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,040 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $395 compared to the national figure of $375.

Carnegie features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 58.7% of all households, including 24.5% couples with children, 25.9% couples without children, and 6.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 41.3%, with lone person households at 34.9% and group households comprising 6.4%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

Carnegie demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Carnegie's educational attainment notably exceeds broader benchmarks, with 55.3% of residents aged 15 years and above holding university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and Victoria's 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 33.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (17.5%) and graduate diplomas (4.3%). Vocational pathways comprise 20.6% of qualifications among those aged 15 years and above, with advanced diplomas accounting for 10.2% and certificates for 10.4%. Educational participation is notably high in Carnegie, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.9% in tertiary education, 7.1% in primary education, and 5.3% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carnegie has 67 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These include train, light rail, and bus stops. There are 15 individual routes servicing these stops, collectively providing 7,350 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 169 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 1,050 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 109 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carnegie's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance across Carnegie, with younger cohorts experiencing particularly low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is high at approximately 58% of the total population (11,705 people), compared to 65.8% across Greater Melbourne.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 7.9 and 6.8% of residents respectively. A total of 74.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 74.0% figure across Greater Melbourne. As of 14th June 2021, Carnegie has 14.5% of its population aged 65 and over (2,945 people), which is lower than the 16.8% in Greater Melbourne. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those of the broader population.

Carnegie is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carnegie's cultural diversity is notable, with 39.8% speaking a language other than English at home and 44.7% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carnegie at 34.2%. Judaism, however, is underrepresented at 6.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 17.5%.

The top three ancestral groups are English (17.7%), Australian (15.7%), and Other (14.5%). Some ethnic groups show notable variations: Russian is overrepresented at 1.7% in Carnegie versus the regional average of 2.2%, Polish at 1.5% compared to 3.1%, and Hungarian at 0.6% versus 0.8%.

Carnegie's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Carnegie's median age in 2021 was 35 years, slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38. The 25-34 age group made up 23.9%, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage but lower than the national 14.5%. The 5-14 cohort was less prevalent at 7.8%. Between 2021 and the present, the 25-34 age group grew from 21.8% to 23.9%, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 11.6% to 13.3%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort declined from 9.1% to 7.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Carnegie. The 25-34 age group is projected to increase by 1,244 people (26%) from 4,855 to 6,100. Meanwhile, the 15-24 cohort grows by a modest 5% (146 people).