Runaway Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Runaway Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Runaway Bay is around 9,661, reflecting an increase of 353 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 9,308. This increase represents a growth rate of 3.8%. AreaSearch estimated this resident population of 9,657 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 27 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is calculated at 1,759 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Runaway Bay's growth rate of 3.8% positions it within 2.7 percentage points of the SA3 area (6.5%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 86.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary population growth in the suburb.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits; thus, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data for each age cohort. Future population trends project an above median growth of regional areas nationally, with the suburb expected to increase by 1,388 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 14.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Runaway Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Runaway Bay had approximately 23 new homes approved annually. Between FY-21 to FY-25, around 118 homes were approved, with another 13 approved in FY-26 so far. This indicates an average of about 1.9 people moving to the area for each dwelling built over these years.

The supply and demand dynamics appear stable. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $704,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, $8.7 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to Rest of Qld, Runaway Bay has approximately 63% of construction activity per person, placing it among the 54th percentile nationally. However, recent periods show increased activity, though still below national averages, suggesting established nature and potential planning limitations.

Recent construction comprises 36.0% detached houses and 64.0% attached dwellings, indicating a trend towards denser development appealing to various buyer segments. The area has approximately 291 people per dwelling approval, indicating low density market. Population forecasts estimate Runaway Bay will gain 1,384 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Runaway Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects that may affect this region. Notable projects include Harbour Town Premium Outlets Expansion, Twenty Hollywell Townhouses, Runaway Bay - Lae Drive & Bayview Street Road Works, and 31 Madang Crescent Townhouses. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Runaway Bay demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Runaway Bay has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 3.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.2%. As of September 2025, 4,507 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.5% below Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%.

Workforce participation was 54.3%, compared to Rest of Qld's 65.7%. According to Census responses, 20.0% of residents worked from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Runaway Bay shows strong specialization in rental, hiring & real estate, with an employment share 2.5 times the regional level.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.6% of the workforce compared to Rest of Qld's 4.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 2.2%, while labour force grew by 2.3%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 3.6%. By comparison, Rest of Qld recorded employment growth of 1.7%, labour force growth of 2.1%, and an unemployment rate rise of 0.3 percentage points to 4.1%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Runaway Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Runaway Bay had a median income among taxpayers of $49,814. The average income stood at $76,105. This is above national averages of $53,146 and $66,593 for Rest of Qld respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since financial year 2023, estimated median and average incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $54,751 and $83,647 respectively. Census 2021 income data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Runaway Bay rank modestly, between the 27th and 34th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that 26.4% of residents earn $1,500 - $2,999 weekly, aligning with regional trends where this cohort represents 31.7%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.3% of income remaining post-housing costs, ranking at the 25th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Runaway Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Runaway Bay, as evaluated at the latest Census conducted in 2016, consisted of 45.3% houses and 54.7% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Qld had a structure of 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings during the same period. Home ownership in Runaway Bay was at 45.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.2% and rented ones at 25.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area, as of June 2021, was $2,000, higher than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,655. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent figure for Runaway Bay was recorded at $435, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $345 and the national average of $375. Nationally, Runaway Bay's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863 as of June 2021.

Runaway Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.7% of all households, including 19.9% couples with children, 37.5% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.3%, with lone person households at 28.7% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Runaway Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Runaway Bay show that 22.4% of residents aged 15 and over hold university degrees, compared to the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are held by 39.3% of residents aged 15 and over, with advanced diplomas at 13.6% and certificates at 25.7%. Currently, 21.1% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 7.1% in primary, 6.3% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education.

A substantial 21.1% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 7.1% in primary education, 6.3% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 34 active transport stops operating within Runaway Bay. These stops serve a mix of bus routes totalling four. They facilitate 1,788 weekly passenger trips combined. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 199 meters from the nearest stop. As primarily residential, most commute outward, with car being dominant at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling, below regional average.

Twenty percent of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions). Service frequency averages 255 trips daily across all routes, equating to about 52 weekly trips per individual stop.

Runaway Bay's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates positive outcomes for Runaway Bay residents. Mortality rates and health conditions are largely in line with national benchmarks.

Prevalence of common health conditions is low across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is high at approximately 57% of the total population (around 5,541 people), compared to 52.5% across Rest of Qld. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.4 and 6.7% of residents respectively. About 63.5% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 67.6% across Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among the working-age population are typical. The area has 32.6% of residents aged 65 and over (3,149 people), higher than the 20.4% in Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Runaway Bay was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Runaway Bay had a higher level of cultural diversity compared to most local markets, with 11.7% of its residents speaking a language other than English at home and 31.7% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Runaway Bay, accounting for 58.7% of the population. Judaism was notably overrepresented in Runaway Bay, comprising 0.3% of the population compared to 0.1% across the rest of Queensland.

The top three ancestral groups based on country of birth of parents were English at 33.7%, Australian at 21.7%, and Irish at 8.6%. There were also significant differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups, with New Zealand overrepresented at 1.3% compared to 0.9% regionally, Russian at 0.5% versus 0.2%, and French at 0.6% versus 0.5%.

Runaway Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Runaway Bay's median age at 53 years is significantly higher than the Rest of Qld average of 41 and considerably older than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Rest of Qld average, those aged 75-84 are notably over-represented in Runaway Bay (12.7% locally), while those aged 5-14 are under-represented (7.8%). This concentration of the 75-84 cohort is well above the national figure of 6.1%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 15 to 24 age group grew from 8.7% to 11.1%, while those aged 85+ increased from 4.5% to 6.1%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort declined from 16.6% to 13.8%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 14.2% to 12.9%. By 2041, Runaway Bay is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the 85+ group will grow by 96%, reaching 1,153 people from 589. The aging population dynamic is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 57% of projected growth. Conversely, both the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 age groups will see reduced numbers.