Runaway Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Runaway Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Runaway Bay is around 9,653, reflecting an increase of 345 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 3.7% change from the previous population count of 9,308. The latest ABS ERP data release (June 2024) and AreaSearch's validation of new addresses indicate an estimated resident population of 9,657 for Runaway Bay. This results in a population density ratio of 1,758 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate since the Census positions it within 2.8 percentage points of the SA3 area (6.5%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 86.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, released in 2023 based on 2021 data. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort are applied when utilized. Considering projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth of national non-metropolitan areas is projected for Runaway Bay, expected to expand by 1,388 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 14.4% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Runaway Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Runaway Bay has averaged around 23 new dwelling approvals each year. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 118 homes were approved, with a further 10 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 1.9 people have moved to the area for each dwelling built over these five years, indicating balanced supply and demand and stable market conditions.

New properties are constructed at an average value of $704,000, moderately above regional levels, suggesting quality construction emphasis. This financial year, $8.7 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Comparatively, Runaway Bay shows approximately 63% of the construction activity per person when measured against Rest of Qld, and it places among the 54th percentile of areas assessed nationally. However, development activity has picked up in recent periods, indicating possible development constraints despite market maturity. New development consists of 36.0% detached houses and 64.0% attached dwellings, focusing on higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

Runaway Bay reflects a low density area with around 291 people per approval. Population forecasts indicate Runaway Bay will gain 1,392 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Runaway Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects that could affect the region. Notable projects include Harbour Town Premium Outlets Expansion, Twenty Hollywell Townhouses, Runaway Bay - Lae Drive & Bayview Street Road Works, and 31 Madang Crescent Townhouses. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Runaway Bay remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Runaway Bay has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 3.4%. Over the past year, ending June 2025, employment grew by 2.1% while the unemployment rate was 0.5% lower than Rest of Qld's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Runaway Bay is at 50.3%, compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Key industries for residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a significant specialization in rental, hiring & real estate services with an employment share 2.5 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 0.6% of local workers, below Rest of Qld's 4.5%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as shown by the difference between Census working population and resident population counts.

In the wider area over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 2.1% alongside labour force growth of 2.1%, keeping unemployment broadly flat. This contrasts with Rest of Qld where employment rose by 1.8%, labour force grew by 2.0%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in Sep-22, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Runaway Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Runaway Bay had a median taxpayer income of $49,814 and an average income of $76,105 in the financial year 2022. This compares to figures for Rest of Qld's of $50,780 and $64,844 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest median income would be approximately $56,783 and average income around $86,752, based on a Wage Price Index growth of 13.99%. Census 2021 data shows Runaway Bay's household incomes rank between the 27th and 34th percentiles, with 26.4% of residents earning $1,500 - 2,999 annually (2,548 people). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 25th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Runaway Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Runaway Bay, as per the latest Census, consisted of 45.3% houses and 54.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Non-Metro Qld's 41.7% houses and 58.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Runaway Bay stood at 45.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.2% and rented ones at 25.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, higher than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Runaway Bay was $435, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $410. Nationally, Runaway Bay's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,000 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially higher at $435 than the national figure of $375.

Runaway Bay has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 67.7 percent of all households, including 19.9 percent couples with children, 37.5 percent couples without children, and 9.2 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.3 percent, with lone person households at 28.7 percent and group households comprising 3.5 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which matches the average for the Rest of Qld.

The educational profile of Runaway Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Runaway Bay show that 22.4% of residents aged 15+ have university degrees, compared to the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are held by 39.3% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 13.6% and certificates at 25.7%. In Runaway Bay, 21.1% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 7.1% in primary, 6.3% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education.

St Francis Xavier School serves the local community with an enrollment of 663 students as of a recent report. The school's ICSEA score is 1070, indicating above-average socio-educational conditions. It offers primary education only; secondary options are available nearby. There are 6.9 school places per 100 residents in Runaway Bay, lower than the regional average of 8.8, suggesting some students may attend schools outside the area.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 35 active transport stops operating within Runaway Bay, consisting of a mix of buses. These stops are served by 4 individual routes, collectively providing 1,788 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 199 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 255 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 51 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Runaway Bay is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant challenges for Runaway Bay, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Approximately 57% (~5,536 people) have private health cover, higher than Rest of Qld's 53.9%.

The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (11.4%) and mental health issues (6.7%). About 63.5% report no medical ailments, compared to 64.5% in Rest of Qld. Runaway Bay has 32.8% (3,166 people) aged 65 and over, higher than Rest of Qld's 25.8%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

Runaway Bay was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Runaway Bay's population was found to have a higher proportion speaking a language other than English at home, with 11.7%, compared to most local markets. Additionally, 31.7% of its residents were born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Runaway Bay, accounting for 58.7% of the population.

Judaism showed an overrepresentation in Runaway Bay at 0.3%, compared to 0.2% across the rest of Queensland. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (33.7%), Australian (21.7%), and Irish (8.6%). Notably, New Zealanders were overrepresented at 1.3% in Runaway Bay, compared to 1.4% regionally, Russians at 0.5% versus 0.4%, and French at 0.6% against 0.7%.

Runaway Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Runaway Bay's median age is 53 years, significantly higher than the Rest of Qld average of 41 and the Australian median of 38. The 75-84 cohort is notably over-represented at 12.9%, compared to the Rest of Qld average, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 7.9%. This concentration in the 75-84 age group is well above the national average of 6.0%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 15 to 24 age group grew from 8.7% to 10.7%, and the 85+ cohort increased from 4.5% to 5.7%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort declined from 16.6% to 14.2%. By 2041, Runaway Bay's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 85+ group will grow by 110%, reaching 1,153 people from 550. Those aged 65 and above are projected to comprise 55% of the growth. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group is expected to contract by 74 residents.