Runaway Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Runaway Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Runaway Bay statistical area (Lv2) was estimated at 9,661 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 353 people from the 2021 Census total of 9,308. The latest resident population estimate by AreaSearch, based on ERP data released by the ABS in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date, is 9,657. This results in a population density ratio of 1,759 persons per square kilometer, which exceeds the national average assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 3.8% since the Census places it within 2.7 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 6.5%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 86.0% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections from 2023 based on 2021 data are used. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 and based on 2022 data for each age cohort. Based on projected demographic shifts, the Runaway Bay (SA2) is expected to experience above median population growth for national non-metropolitan areas. By 2041, the area's population is projected to increase by 1,388 persons, reflecting a total increase of 14.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Runaway Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Runaway Bay averaged approximately 23 new dwelling approvals annually. Between financial years FY-21 to FY-25, around 118 homes were approved, with an additional 13 approved in FY-26 so far. This averages out to about 1.9 people moving to the area per year for each dwelling built over these five years, suggesting a balanced supply and demand creating stable market conditions.

The average construction value of new properties is around $704,000, indicating developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, $8.7 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Comparatively, Runaway Bay shows approximately 63% of construction activity per person when measured against the Rest of Qld. Nationally, it places among the 54th percentile of areas assessed. However, recent periods have seen an increase in development activity, though it remains lower than national averages, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints.

New development in Runaway Bay consists of 36.0% detached houses and 64.0% attached dwellings, focusing on higher-density living which creates more affordable entry points suitable for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. The area reflects a low density with around 291 people per approval. Population forecasts indicate Runaway Bay will gain approximately 1,384 residents by 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Runaway Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Harbour Town Premium Outlets Expansion, Twenty Hollywell Townhouses, Runaway Bay - Lae Drive & Bayview Street Road Works, and 31 Madang Crescent Townhouses. The following list details those most pertinent.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Runaway Bay demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Runaway Bay's workforce is skilled and diverse. The unemployment rate was 3.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.2%.

As of September 2025, 4,507 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.5% below Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%. Workforce participation was 50.3%, significantly lower than Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area had a high specialization in rental, hiring & real estate, with an employment share 2.5 times the regional level.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing employed only 0.6% of local workers, below Rest of Qld's 4.5%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited, as indicated by the Census working population count versus resident population. In the past year, employment increased by 2.2%, alongside a labour force increase of 2.3%, keeping unemployment broadly flat. This contrasted with Rest of Qld, where employment rose by 1.7%, the labour force grew by 2.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 showed Queensland's employment contracted by 0.01% (losing 1,210 jobs), with a state unemployment rate of 4.2%, closely aligned with the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offered further insight into potential future demand within Runaway Bay. These projections suggested national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differed significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Runaway Bay's employment mix indicated local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Runaway Bay had a high national income level according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year ended June 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Runaway Bay was $49,814 and the average income stood at $76,105. These figures compared to those for the Rest of Qld which were $53,146 and $66,593 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since June 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $54,751 (median) and $83,647 (average). Census data from 2021 showed household, family, and personal incomes in Runaway Bay ranked modestly, between the 27th and 34th percentiles. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 dominated with 26.4% of residents (2,550 people), similar to the regional figure of 31.7%. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 82.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 25th percentile. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Runaway Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Runaway Bay, as per the latest Census evaluation, 45.3% of dwellings were houses while 54.7% were other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Non-Metro Qld's figures of 41.7% houses and 58.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Runaway Bay stood at 45.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.2% and rented ones at 25.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,000, higher than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure was recorded as $435, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $410. Nationally, Runaway Bay's mortgage repayments were above the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially higher than the national figure of $375.

Runaway Bay has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 67.7% of all households, including 19.9% that are couples with children, 37.5% that are couples without children, and 9.2% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.3%, with lone person households at 28.7% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which matches the average for the Rest of Qld.

The educational profile of Runaway Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Runaway Bay trail regional benchmarks, with 22.4% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to the national average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 39.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 13.6% and certificates at 25.7%. A substantial 21.1% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 7.1% in primary education, 6.3% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

A substantial 21.1% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 7.1% in primary education, 6.3% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Runaway Bay shows that there are currently 35 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 4 individual routes providing service. The combined weekly passenger trips across these routes amount to 1,788.

Residents have excellent access to public transport, with an average distance of 199 meters to the nearest stop. The service frequency is high, with an average of 255 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 51 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Runaway Bay is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Runaway Bay faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across age groups. Private health cover is high at approximately 57% (~5,541 people), compared to 52.6% in the rest of Queensland.

The most frequent medical issues are arthritis (11.4%) and mental health problems (6.7%). About 63.5% report being free from medical ailments, slightly lower than the 64.5% in the rest of Queensland. Runaway Bay has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 32.8% (3,168 people), compared to 25.8% in the rest of Queensland. Health outcomes for seniors are above average, outperforming general population health metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Runaway Bay was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Runaway Bay had a higher level of cultural diversity compared to most local areas, with 11.7% of its residents speaking a language other than English at home and 31.7% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Runaway Bay, making up 58.7% of the population. Notably, Judaism was slightly overrepresented in Runaway Bay compared to the rest of Queensland, with 0.3% of its population identifying as such.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (33.7%), Australian (21.7%), and Irish (8.6%). There were also notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: New Zealanders made up 1.3%, Russians 0.5%, and French 0.6% of Runaway Bay's population, compared to regional percentages of 1.4%, 0.4%, and 0.7% respectively.

Runaway Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Runaway Bay's median age is 53 years, significantly higher than the Rest of Qld average of 41 and the Australian median of 38. The 75-84 cohort is notably over-represented at 12.9% locally compared to the Rest of Qld average, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 7.9%. This 75-84 concentration is well above the national figure of 6.0%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 15 to 24 age group grew from 8.7% to 10.7%, while the 85+ cohort increased from 4.5% to 5.7%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort declined from 16.6% to 14.2%. By 2041, Runaway Bay's age composition is expected to shift notably. Leading this demographic shift, the 85+ group will grow by 109%, reaching 1,153 people from 550. The aging population dynamic is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 55% of projected growth. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group is expected to contract by 74 residents.