Runaway Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Runaway Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the population of Runaway Bay is estimated at around 9,774 people. This reflects an increase of 466 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,308 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 9,755 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 31 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,780 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Runaway Bay's growth rate of 5.0% since the census positions it within 2.0 percentage points of the SA3 area (7.0%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 86.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary population growth for the suburb.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Considering projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth of national non-metropolitan areas is projected for Runaway Bay, with the area expected to expand by 1,376 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 13.9% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Runaway Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Runaway Bay averaged approximately 23 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 118 homes were approved, with another 13 approved in FY-26 to date. This averages about 1.9 people moving to the area per dwelling built over these years, suggesting balanced supply and demand, stable market conditions, and an average construction value of $704,000, indicating a focus on premium developments.

Commercial development approvals totalled $8.7 million in FY-26, reflecting Runaway Bay's primarily residential nature. Compared to the Rest of Qld, Runaway Bay shows around 63% of construction activity per person and ranks at approximately the 54th percentile nationally, though recent periods have seen increased development activity. New developments consist of 36.0% detached houses and 64.0% attached dwellings, promoting higher-density living and affordability for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. With around 291 people per approval, Runaway Bay is considered a low-density area. Population forecasts estimate Runaway Bay will gain approximately 1,357 residents by 2041.

At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Runaway Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects that may affect the region. Notable initiatives include Harbour Town Premium Outlets Expansion, Twenty Hollywell Townhouses, Runaway Bay - Lae Drive & Bayview Street Road Works, and 31 Madang Crescent Townhouses. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Runaway Bay demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Runaway Bay has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 3.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.5%. As of December 2025, 4,551 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 0.4% lower than Regional Qld's rate of 4.0%.

Workforce participation lagged at 54.1%, compared to Regional Qld's 64.5%. According to Census responses, 20.0% of residents worked from home. Key industries included health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Runaway Bay had a particular employment specialization in rental, hiring & real estate, with an employment share 2.5 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employed just 0.6% of local workers, below Regional Qld's 4.5%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities. Over a 12-month period, employment increased by 2.5%, matching the labour force growth, keeping unemployment broadly flat. In contrast, Regional Qld saw employment rise by 0.7% and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 estimated future demand within Runaway Bay. These projections suggested national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Runaway Bay's employment mix indicated local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this was a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and did not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Runaway Bay's median income among taxpayers was $49,814 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $76,105 during the same period. These figures compare to regional Queensland's median income of $53,146 and average income of $66,593. By March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $55,473 (median) and $84,751 (average), based on an 11.36% growth rate since financial year 2023. Census 2021 income data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Runaway Bay rank between the 27th and 34th percentiles. The $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket dominated with 26.4% of residents (2,580 people). Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 82.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 25th percentile. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Runaway Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Runaway Bay, as per the latest Census, consisted of 45.3% houses and 54.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional Qld's figures of 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Runaway Bay stood at 45.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.2% and rented ones at 25.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, higher than Regional Qld's average of $1,655. The median weekly rent figure in Runaway Bay was $435, compared to Regional Qld's $375 and the national average of $345. Nationally, Runaway Bay's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,000 against the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Runaway Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.7% of all households, including 19.9% couples with children, 37.5% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.3%, with lone person households at 28.7% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional Queensland average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Runaway Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Runaway Bay trail regional benchmarks; 22.4% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees compared to Australia's 30.4%. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 39.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (13.6%) and certificates (25.7%).

A substantial 21.1% of the population actively pursues formal education, including 7.1% in primary education, 6.3% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 34 active transport stops operating within Runaway Bay. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totalling four individual routes that provide 1,788 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 199 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, some 20.0% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 255 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 52 weekly trips per individual stop.

Runaway Bay's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Health data shows positive outcomes for Runaway Bay residents. Mortality rates and health conditions align with national benchmarks.

Common health conditions are seen across both young and old age cohorts. Private health cover is high at 57% of the total population (~5,606 people), compared to 52.5% in Regional Qld. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (11.4%) and mental health issues (6.7%). 63.5% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld. Health outcomes among the working-age population are typical. Runaway Bay has 33.3% of residents aged 65 and over (3,254 people), higher than Regional Qld's 20.4%. Senior health outcomes are above average and align with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Runaway Bay was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Runaway Bay's population showed higher linguistic diversity, with 11.7% speaking a language other than English at home, compared to the majority of local markets. Additionally, 31.7% of Runaway Bay residents were born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Runaway Bay, accounting for 58.7% of its population.

Notably, Judaism was more prevalent in Runaway Bay than in Regional Queensland, with 0.3% compared to 0.1%. The top three ancestral groups based on parents' country of birth were English (33.7%), Australian (21.7%), and Irish (8.6%). There were also notable differences in the representation of New Zealanders (1.3%, vs regional 0.9%), Russians (0.5%, vs 0.2%), and French individuals (0.6%, vs 0.5%) in Runaway Bay compared to Regional Queensland.

Runaway Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Runaway Bay's median age at 53 years is significantly higher than the Regional Queensland average of 41 and considerably older than Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Regional Queensland average, the 75-84 cohort is notably over-represented in Runaway Bay (13.2% locally), while the 25-34 age group is under-represented (7.5%). This concentration of the 75-84 cohort is well above Australia's national average of 6.1%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 8.7% to 10.6%, while the 85+ cohort increased from 4.5% to 6.2%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort declined from 16.6% to 13.9%, and the 45 to 54 age group dropped from 14.2% to 13.1%. By 2041, Runaway Bay is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the 85+ group will grow by 96%, reaching 1,187 people from 605. The aging population trend is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 58% of projected growth. Conversely, both the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 age groups will see reduced numbers.