Ngunnawal

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ngunnawal reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As per ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Ngunnawal's population is estimated at around 11,192 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 235 people (2.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,957 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 11,060 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 51 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,690 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections, with 2022 as a base, are adopted. According to these projections, over this period there is an anticipated decline in overall population, with the suburb's population expected to reduce by 771 persons by 2041. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 65 to 74 age group, which is projected to increase by 124 people.

The level of residential development activity in Ngunnawal is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Ngunnawal averaged approximately 9 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 46 homes. As of FY-26, one approval has been recorded. Despite population decline in the area, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average expected construction cost value for new dwellings is $285,000. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Ngunnawal has significantly less development activity, approximately 92.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new homes typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. However, construction activity has intensified recently. Nationally, Ngunnawal's level of building activity is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent building activity consists entirely of medium and high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift represents a notable change from the area's existing housing composition, currently 67.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options.

With around 491 people per dwelling approval, Ngunnawal shows a developed market. Given the expected stable or declining population, Ngunnawal should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers in the future.

Ngunnawal has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 23 projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives include Gold Creek Homestead Precinct, North Gungahlin Community Health Centre, Casey Emergency Services Station, and Casey Indoor Sports Facility. The following details projects expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Ngunnawal demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Ngunnawal has a well-educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.3% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.2% over the past year. There are 6,265 residents currently employed, and the unemployment rate is 0.7% higher than the Australian Capital Territory's rate of 3.6%.

Workforce participation in Ngunnawal is 74.8%, slightly higher than the Australian Capital Territory's 72.5%. According to Census responses, only 11.1% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Dominant employment sectors include public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Notably, construction employment levels are at 1.3 times the regional average.

However, public administration & safety is under-represented, with only 26.7% of Ngunnawal's workforce compared to 30.4% in Australian Capital Territory. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 1.2%, while the labour force grew by 0.9%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Australian Capital Territory experienced employment growth of 1.4% and labour force growth of 1.2%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ngunnawal's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not consider localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income in Ngunnawal is $62,934, with an average of $72,878, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This is higher than national averages of $72,206 median and $85,981 average in the Australian Capital Territory. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $68,762 median and $79,627 average, based on a 9.26% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Ngunnawal rank between the 79th and 87th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 39.5% of locals (4,420 people) fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 weekly income category, similar to the metropolitan region at 34.3%. Notably, 30.9% of Ngunnawal residents earn over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 15.9% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 78th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Ngunnawal displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Ngunnawal, according to the latest Census, 67.4% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 32.6% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is compared to the Australian Capital Territory's (ACT) figures of 63.3% houses and 36.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ngunnawal stood at 21.7%, with mortgaged properties accounting for 51.2% and rented dwellings making up 27.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, lower than the ACT average of $2,080. Weekly rent in Ngunnawal was recorded at $450, equal to the ACT's figure but higher than the national average of $375. Nationally, Ngunnawal's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863.

Ngunnawal has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 72.3% of all households, including 35.9% couples with children, 23.2% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 27.7%, with lone person households at 24.4% and group households making up 3.1%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Ngunnawal shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications among Ngunnawal residents aged 15 and above show a difference compared to the SA4 region. Specifically, 37.1% of Ngunnawal residents hold university degrees, while in the SA4 region this figure is 46.8%. This indicates potential for educational development and skill enhancement in Ngunnawal. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 22.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 10.7% and graduate diplomas at 4.0%.

Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 30.8% of residents holding such qualifications. This includes advanced diplomas held by 11.3% of residents and certificates held by 19.5%. Educational participation is high in Ngunnawal, with 31.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (10.6%), secondary education (6.6%), and tertiary education (6.0%).

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ngunnawal has 65 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 141 different routes, offering a total of 6,575 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 171 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards due to its residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 89%, while buses account for 5%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, only 11.1% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 939 trips per day across all routes, equating to about 101 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ngunnawal is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Ngunnawal faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across all age groups but slightly more so among older cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 56% of the total population (around 6,265 people), compared to 62.4% across the Australian Capital Territory. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 9.8% and 9.3% of residents respectively. Approximately 69.0% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.2% across the Australian Capital Territory. Working-age residents show a higher than average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 12.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,365 people), which is lower than the 14.3% in the Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ngunnawal was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ngunnawal's population showed high cultural diversity, with 28.7% born overseas and 28.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Ngunnawal, accounting for 41.3%. However, the 'Other' category stood out at 2.5%, higher than the Australian Capital Territory's 1.4%.

In ancestry, the top groups were Australian (23.9%), English (22.4%), and Other (13.8%). Notably, Croatian (1.3% vs regional 0.9%), Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.3%), and Serbian (0.5% vs 0.4%) ethnicities were overrepresented in Ngunnawal.

Ngunnawal hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Ngunnawal's median age is 34 years, comparable to the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 but lower than the national average of 38. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Ngunnawal has a higher percentage of residents aged 35-44 (17.7%) and fewer residents aged 15-24 (10.6%). Post-2021 Census data shows that the age group 55-64 grew from 8.6% to 9.9%, while the age group 75-84 increased from 3.7% to 4.8%. Conversely, the age group 25-34 declined from 17.9% to 16.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Ngunnawal's age profile. The strongest projected growth is in the 65-74 cohort, with a 13% increase adding 92 residents to reach 786. Residents aged 65 and older represent 82% of anticipated population growth, while declines are projected for the 75-84 and 15-24 age cohorts.