Ngunnawal

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ngunnawal reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Ngunnawal statistical area (Lv2) is estimated to be around 11,182 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 10,957 people, representing a growth of 225 individuals or approximately 2.1%. The current population is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 11,060 residents following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 47 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,688 persons per square kilometer, placing the Ngunnawal (SA2) in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Natural growth contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

Population projections for the area indicate a decline in overall population by 771 persons by 2041, with the age group of 65 to 74 expected to increase by 124 people over this period.

The level of residential development activity in Ngunnawal is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Ngunnawal shows an average of around 9 new dwelling approvals per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling approximately 46 homes. In FY-26 so far, 1 approval has been recorded. Despite population decline in the area, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a well-balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $285,000. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Ngunnawal has significantly less development activity, at 92.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, although construction activity has intensified recently. The level of development activity is also lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent building activity consists entirely of medium and high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift represents a notable change from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 67.0% houses. Ngunnawal shows a developed market with around 491 people per dwelling approval.

With population expected to remain stable or decline, pressure on housing in Ngunnawal should reduce, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Ngunnawal has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 23 projects likely to affect the region. Notable ones include Gold Creek Homestead Precinct, North Gungahlin Community Health Centre, Casey Emergency Services Station, and Casey Indoor Sports Facility. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Ngunnawal demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Ngunnawal has a well-educated workforce with high representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.3% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.2% over the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation.

As of that date, 6,265 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 0.7% higher than the Australian Capital Territory's rate of 3.6%. Workforce participation was 72.8%, slightly higher than the ACT's 69.6%. Dominant employment sectors included public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Notably, construction had employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average.

However, public administration & safety was under-represented with only 26.7% of Ngunnawal's workforce compared to the ACT's 30.4%. The area appeared to have limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparison. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 1.2%, labour force by 0.9%, leading to a 0.3 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. In contrast, the ACT had employment growth of 1.4% and labour force growth of 1.2%, with a 0.2 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. State-level data up to 25-Nov showed ACT employment grew by 1.19% year-on-year, adding 710 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.5%. National employment forecasts from May-25 projected national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ngunnawal's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this was a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and did not consider localized population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Ngunnawal had a median taxpayer income of $62,934 and an average income of $72,878 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This was higher than the national averages of $51,995 (median) and $70,466 (average). By September 2025, based on a Wage Price Index growth of 9.26%, estimated incomes would be approximately $68,762 (median) and $79,627 (average). Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Ngunnawal rank between the 79th and 87th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile indicates that 39.5% of locals (4,416 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly income bracket, similar to the metropolitan region where 34.3% are in this category. Notably, 30.9% of Ngunnawal residents earn over $3,000 per week, reflecting the area's affluence and supporting premium retail and service offerings. Despite high housing costs consuming 15.9% of income, disposable income ranks at the 78th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Ngunnawal displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Ngunnawal, as per the latest Census evaluation, 67.4% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 32.6% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types of accommodation. This is comparable to the Australian Capital Territory's figures of 66.3% houses and 33.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ngunnawal stood at 21.7%, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 51.2% and rented ones comprising 27.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,950, lower than the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,123. The median weekly rent figure in Ngunnawal was $450, slightly higher than the Australian Capital Territory's $462. Nationally, Ngunnawal's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,950 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially higher at $450 versus the national figure of $375.

Ngunnawal has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.3 percent of all households, including 35.9 percent couples with children, 23.2 percent couples without children, and 12.2 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 27.7 percent, with lone person households at 24.4 percent and group households comprising 3.1 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.9.

Ngunnawal shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications among Ngunnawal residents aged 15+ show that 37.1% hold university degrees, compared to the SA4 region's 46.8%. This indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 22.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.7%) and graduate diplomas (4.0%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 30.8% of residents holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 11.3% and certificates for 19.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.4% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 6.6% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Ngunnawal shows that there are currently 65 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 141 individual routes providing service to the region. This results in approximately 6,575 weekly passenger trips across all routes combined.

The accessibility of public transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located around 171 meters from their nearest transport stop on average. On a daily basis, there are an average of 939 trips made across all routes, which equates to approximately 101 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ngunnawal's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Ngunnawal's health metrics are close to national benchmarks. Common health conditions among its general population are somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 56% of the total population (~6,259 people), compared to 59.5% across Australian Capital Territory. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 9.8% and 9.3% of residents respectively. 69.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 76.4% across Australian Capital Territory. The area has 11.9% of residents aged 65 and over (1,330 people), which is higher than the 8.3% in Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges requiring more attention than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ngunnawal was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ngunnawal's population showed high cultural diversity, with 28.7% born overseas and 28.3% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 41.3%. The 'Other' religious category stood out at 2.5%, slightly higher than the ACT average of 2.7%.

Ancestry-wise, Australians made up 23.9%, English 22.4%, and 'Other' 13.8%. Some ethnic groups were notably different: Croatian (1.3% vs regional 1.3%), Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.2%), and Serbian (0.5% vs 0.4%).

Ngunnawal hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Ngunnawal's median age at 34 years is comparable to the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 years, and significantly lower than the national average of 38 years. Relative to the Australian Capital Territory, Ngunnawal has a higher concentration of residents aged 35-44 years (17.7%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 years (10.6%). Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group grew from 3.7% to 4.6% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort declined from 11.5% to 10.6%. Demographic modeling suggests Ngunnawal's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 65 to 74 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 15%, adding 103 residents to reach 786. This demographic aging continues as residents aged 65 and older represent 68% of anticipated population growth. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 75 to 84 age group and the 15 to 24 cohort.