Ngunnawal

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ngunnawal reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Ngunnawal is around 11,188, reflecting an increase of 231 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 2.1% change from the previous population count of 10,957. The increase was inferred by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and validation of an additional 53 new addresses since the Census date. With this population level, Ngunnawal has a density ratio of 2,689 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The primary driver for population growth in the suburb was natural growth, contributing approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections are used, also with a base year of 2022. Looking ahead, population projections indicate a decline in overall population for Ngunnawal over time. According to these methodologies, the suburb's population is expected to reduce by 767 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are anticipated to grow, with the 65 to 74 age group projected to increase by 113 people during this period.

The level of residential development activity in Ngunnawal is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Ngunnawal averaging around 9 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years to June 2021. This totals an estimated 46 homes. So far in FY-26 (July 2021 - June 2022), 1 approval has been recorded.

Ngunnawal's population decline has resulted in adequate housing supply relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice. New dwellings are developed at an average construction cost value of $285,000. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Ngunnawal has significantly less development activity, 92.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Recently, construction activity has intensified, focusing entirely on medium and high-density housing. This shift from the area's existing housing (67.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. Ngunnawal shows a developed market with around 491 people per dwelling approval.

With population expected to remain stable or decline, reduced pressure on housing is anticipated, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Ngunnawal has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 23 projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones include Gold Creek Homestead Precinct, North Gungahlin Health Centre, Casey Emergency Services Station, and Casey Indoor Sports Facility, as detailed below for their potential relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Ngunnawal remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Ngunnawal has a well-educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.5% as of December 2020, with an estimated employment growth of 0.9% over the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation. As of December 2025, 6,257 residents are employed, while the unemployment rate is 0.7% higher than the Australian Capital Territory's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in Ngunnawal is 73.5%, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's 70.5%. Only 11.1% of residents work from home, based on Census responses. Dominant employment sectors include public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average.

However, public administration & safety is under-represented, with only 26.7% of Ngunnawal's workforce compared to 30.4% in the Australian Capital Territory. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by the resident population versus working population count. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 0.9%, while labour force grew by 1.0%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, the Australian Capital Territory saw employment growth of 0.9% and labour force growth of 1.2%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to Ngunnawal's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Ngunnawal has a median taxpayer income of $62,934 and an average income of $72,878 based on the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This is higher than the national average, with the Australian Capital Territory's median income being $72,206 and average income $85,981. By March 2026, based on a 10.44% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, estimated incomes would be approximately $69,504 (median) and $80,486 (average). Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Ngunnawal rank highly nationally, between the 79th and 87th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 39.5% of locals (4,419 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly income bracket, similar to the metropolitan region where 34.3% are in this category. The suburb exhibits significant affluence with 30.9% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 15.9% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 78th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Ngunnawal displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Ngunnawal, as per the latest Census evaluation, 67.4% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 32.6% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to the Australian Capital Territory's figures of 63.3% houses and 36.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ngunnawal stood at 21.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 51.2% and rented ones at 27.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, lower than the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,080. Median weekly rent in Ngunnawal was $450, matching the Australian Capital Territory figure but higher than the national average of $375. Nationally, Ngunnawal's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863.

Ngunnawal has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 72.3% of all households, including 35.9% couples with children, 23.2% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 27.7%, with lone person households at 24.4% and group households making up 3.1%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Ngunnawal shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Ngunnawal trail regional benchmarks; 37.1% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees compared to 46.8% in the SA4 region. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 22.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.7%) and graduate diplomas (4.0%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 30.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.3%) and certificates (19.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education; this includes 10.6% in primary education, 6.6% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ngunnawal has 65 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 141 different routes that together facilitate 6,575 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 171 meters from the nearest stop. Most Ngunnawal residents commute outwards daily. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation for 89% of these outward-bound journeys, while buses are used by 5%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling in the area.

According to the 2021 Census, only 11.1% of residents work from home, a figure that may have been influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages at 939 trips per day, translating to approximately 101 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ngunnawal is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Ngunnawal faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across all age groups, but more so among older cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 56% (~6,263 people), compared to the Australian Capital Territory's (ACT) 62.4%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions, affecting 9.8% and 9.3% of residents respectively. A total of 69.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to the ACT's 70.2%. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 12.4% of residents aged 65 and over (1,387 people), lower than the ACT's 14.3%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, ranking lower nationally compared to the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ngunnawal was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ngunnawal's population showed higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 28.7% born overseas and 28.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Ngunnawal, accounting for 41.3%. The category 'Other' had a higher representation in Ngunnawal at 2.5%, compared to 1.4% across Australian Capital Territory.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups were Australian (23.9%), English (22.4%), and Other (13.8%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Croatian was overrepresented at 1.3% in Ngunnawal compared to 0.9% regionally, Hungarian at 0.4% vs 0.3%, and Serbian at 0.5% vs 0.4%.

Ngunnawal hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Ngunnawal's median age is 34 years, comparable to the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 years but significantly lower than the national average of 38 years. Relative to the Australian Capital Territory, Ngunnawal has a higher concentration of residents aged 35-44 (17.8%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (10.6%). Post-2021 Census data shows that the age group of 55 to 64 has grown from 8.6% to 9.7%, while the age group of 75 to 84 increased from 3.7% to 4.8%. Conversely, the age group of 15 to 24 has declined from 11.5% to 10.6%. Demographic modeling suggests that Ngunnawal's age profile will evolve significantly by the year 2041. The age group of 65 to 74 shows the strongest projected growth at 15%, adding 104 residents to reach a total of 798. Demographic aging continues as residents aged 65 and older represent 72% of anticipated population growth. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the age groups of 75 to 84 and 15 to 24.