Black Rock (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Black Rock reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the suburb of Black Rock (Vic.) is estimated to be around 6,866 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 477 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,389 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 6,606 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 30 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,152 persons per square kilometer. Black Rock's 7.5% growth since census positions it within 1.2 percentage points of the SA4 region (8.7%). Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate an increase just below the median of national statistical areas, with the area expected to increase by 634 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 5.5% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Black Rock when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Black Rock has averaged around 39 new dwelling approvals each year. Over the past 5 financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 197 homes were approved, with a further 3 approved so far in FY-26. This supply is meeting or surpassing demand, as indicated by an average of only 0.3 people moving to the area per dwelling built over the same period.

The average value of new dwellings developed is $651,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, $16.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Black Rock shows approximately 62% of the construction activity per person and places among the 87th percentile nationally, though building activity has accelerated in recent years. New development consists of 17.0% standalone homes and 83.0% attached dwellings, promoting higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

With around 97 people per dwelling approval, Black Rock shows characteristics of a growth area. Future projections, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, show Black Rock adding 374 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Black Rock has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects likely to affect this region. Notable projects are Sanctuary Sandringham, Miramar, Beach Point Sandringham, and The Coterie. Below is a list of projects expected to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Black Rock demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Black Rock has a highly educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate is 2.4%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data as of December 2025. There are 3,604 residents in work while the unemployment rate is below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation lags at 64.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Census responses show that 48.0% of residents work from home. The dominant employment sectors are professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Black Rock has a particularly strong specialization in professional & technical services with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level.

However, transport, postal & warehousing has limited presence at 2.6% compared to the regional level of 5.2%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.2% alongside a 0.6% employment decline, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.4 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, and an unemployment increase of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Black Rock's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Black Rock had a median taxpayer income of $66,079 and an average income of $116,371. These figures place Black Rock in the top percentile nationally, compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $71,531 (median) and $125,972 (average). Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Black Rock rank between the 84th and 88th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 31.2% of residents (2,142 people) earn over $4,000 per week, differing from Melbourne's metropolitan region where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket is predominant at 32.8%. A substantial proportion of high earners (42.7% above $3,000/week) suggests strong economic capacity in Black Rock. After housing costs, residents retain 87.3% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Black Rock displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Black Rock's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 56.1% houses and 44.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Black Rock was 50.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.5% and rented ones at 17.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,897, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Black Rock was $541, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Black Rock's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Black Rock has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.5% of all households, consisting of 33.7% couples with children, 32.3% couples without children, and 7.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 25.5%, with lone person households at 24.3% and group households making up 1.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Black Rock demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

In Black Rock, the proportion of residents aged 15 and above with university qualifications is notably higher than national and state averages. Specifically, 46.1% of Black Rock's population holds such qualifications, compared to 30.4% in Australia and 33.4% in Victoria. This educational advantage is predominantly composed of bachelor degrees (30.9%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.8%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Vocational pathways are also prevalent, with 24.2% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (12.3%) and certificates (11.9%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in secondary education, 8.4% in primary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Black Rock has 26 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These are covered by five routes that together facilitate 733 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents usually located 211 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Car remains the primary mode of transport at 86%, followed by train at 6% and walking at 4%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 48% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 104 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 28 weekly trips per individual stop.

Black Rock's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Black Rock's health outcomes show excellent results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Approximately 73% of Black Rock's total population of 4,981 people have private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

Arthritis and asthma are the most common medical conditions in Black Rock, affecting 8.1 and 6.6% of residents respectively. However, 71.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 28.6% of residents aged 65 and over (1,963 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors in Black Rock are strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Black Rock was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Black Rock's population showed above-average cultural diversity, with 11.6% speaking a language other than English at home and 25.5% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 48.1%. Judaism was slightly overrepresented, comprising 0.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (29.1%), Australian (23.1%), and Irish (9.8%). Notably, Polish (1.1%) and Scottish (9.5%) populations were higher than regional averages of 0.8% and 5.6%, respectively. French ancestry was also slightly overrepresented at 0.8%.

Black Rock hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Black Rock has a median age of 49, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and the national average of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 make up 14.7% of the population, compared to 9.5% nationally. This group is particularly prominent in Black Rock. Conversely, the 25-34 age group comprises only 5.1%, which is smaller than in Greater Melbourne. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 75-84 age group has grown from 8.0% to 10.6%, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 11.8% to 13.8%. However, the 45-54 age group has declined from 15.5% to 14.2%, and the 5-14 group has dropped from 11.8% to 10.6%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Black Rock's age structure. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 33%, reaching 966 people from 727 currently. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 88% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0-4 and 55-64 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.