Black Rock (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Black Rock reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As per ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Black Rock (Vic.) had an estimated population of around 6,667 as of May 2026. This figure indicates a rise of 278 individuals, representing a 4.4% increase from the 2021 Census total of 6,389 people. The estimation is based on AreaSearch's resident population count of 6,655 following their examination of the ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2025 and an additional 28 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,090 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Black Rock's 4.4% growth since the census places it within 1.6 percentage points of the SA3 area (6.0%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in recent periods for the suburb.

AreaSearch is employing ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted using weighted aggregation methods for areas not covered by these data. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to increase its population by just below the median of national areas, reaching an estimated total of 7,263 persons by 2041, reflecting an 8.8% overall increase over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Black Rock recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Black Rock averaged approximately 39 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY21-FY25, around 197 homes were approved, with 7 more approved in FY26 as of the current date. The average construction value per property is $651,000.

In FY26, commercial development approvals totalled $16.2 million. Black Rock shows 62% of Greater Melbourne's construction activity per person and ranks at the 87th percentile nationally. New developments consist of 17.0% detached houses and 83.0% medium to high-density housing. By 2041, Black Rock is forecasted to gain approximately 584 residents. With current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, favouring buyers and potentially exceeding population growth forecasts.

Population forecasts indicate Black Rock will gain 584 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Black Rock has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. Eight projects, identified by AreaSearch, are expected to impact this region. Notable ones include Sanctuary Sandringham, Miramar, Beach Point Sandringham, and The Coterie. Relevant details about these projects are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Black Rock demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Black Rock has a highly educated workforce. Its unemployment rate was 2.5% as of December 2025, with relative employment stability over the past year based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of that date, 3,622 residents were in work while the unemployment rate was 2.3% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation lagged significantly at 64.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. A high 48.0% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Leading employment industries among residents comprised professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area had particular employment specialization in professional & technical, with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level.

Transport, postal & warehousing was under-represented at 2.6% compared to Greater Melbourne's 5.2%. The predominantly residential area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels increased by 0.1% while employment declined by 0.4%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offered further insight into potential future demand within Black Rock. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, were mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. National employment was forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Black Rock's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though this was a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and did not take into account localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023, Black Rock had a median income among taxpayers of $66,079. The average income level stood at $116,371. Nationally, this places Black Rock in the top percentile. In Greater Melbourne, median and average incomes were $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Black Rock would be approximately $72,436 (median) and $127,566 (average) as of March 2026. Census 2021 income data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Black Rock rank highly nationally, between the 84th and 88th percentiles. Income distribution differs from surrounding regions; 31.2% of Black Rock's population earns over $40,000 compared to 32.8% earning between $1,500 - $2,999 in the surrounding area. Economic strength is evident with 42.7% of households earning over $3,000 weekly. After housing costs, residents retain 87.3% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The SEIFA income ranking places Black Rock in the 10th decile.

Black Rock displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Black Rock's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 56.1% houses and 44.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Black Rock stood at 50.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.5% and rented ones at 17.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,897, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. The median weekly rent in Black Rock was $541, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Black Rock's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Black Rock has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.5% of all households, including 33.7% couples with children, 32.3% couples without children, and 7.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.5%, with lone person households at 24.3% and group households comprising 1.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Black Rock demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Black Rock is notably high, with 46.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications as of the latest available data. This compares to national figures of 30.4% for Australia and 33.4% for Victoria. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 30.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 10.8% and graduate diplomas at 4.4%. Vocational pathways account for 24.2% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas making up 12.3% and certificates 11.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the reported period. This includes 9.5% in secondary education, 8.4% in primary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Black Rock has 26 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops serve a mix of bus routes totaling five different lines that collectively facilitate 733 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is considered good, with residents typically residing an average of 211 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. The car remains the primary mode of transportation for 86% of residents, followed by train at 6%, and walking at 4%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling in Black Rock, exceeding the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a significant 48.0% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 104 trips per day, translating to approximately 28 weekly trips per individual stop.

Black Rock's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

AreaSearch's assessment of Black Rock shows excellent health outcomes. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were very low across all age groups. Private health cover was exceptionally high at approximately 73% of the total population (4,837 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions were arthritis and asthma, affecting 8.1 and 6.6% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 71.1%, reported being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. The area had a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 27.9% (1,860 people), compared to 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors were strong, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Black Rock was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Black Rock's cultural diversity was above average, with 11.6% speaking a language other than English at home and 25.5% born overseas. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 48.1%. Judaism was overrepresented at 0.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

In ancestry, English (29.1%) and Australian (23.1%) were the top groups, higher than regional averages of 20.1% and 16.5% respectively. Irish ancestry comprised 9.8%. Notable divergences included Polish at 1.1%, Scottish at 9.5%, and French at 0.8%, all higher than regional percentages.

Black Rock hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Black Rock has a median age of 49, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and the national average of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 years are particularly prominent, making up 14.7% of the population, compared to 9.4% nationally. This group is more prevalent in Black Rock than in Greater Melbourne. Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 8.0% to 10.1%, while the 15 to 24 cohort has risen from 11.8% to 13.8%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 15.5% to 14.3%, and the 5 to 14 group has dropped from 11.8% to 10.7%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Black Rock's age structure. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 37%, reaching 922 people from the current figure of 673. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 81% of total population growth, reflecting Black Rock's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0 to 4 and 55 to 64 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.