Black Rock (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Black Rock reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Black Rock's population, as of Nov 2025, is estimated at around 6,832, reflecting an increase of 443 people since the 2021 Census. The 2021 Census reported a population of 6,389 in the Black Rock (Vic.) statistical area (Lv2). This growth was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 6,606 residents following examination of ABS data up to June 2024 and validation of 31 new addresses since the Census date. The population density is 2,141 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade (2015-2025), Black Rock has shown resilient growth with a compound annual growth rate of 0.8%, outpacing its SA3 area. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during this period.

AreaSearch's projections for Black Rock are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024, using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises Victorian Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation to SA2 levels. Considering projected demographic shifts, Black Rock is expected to increase its population by just below the median of national areas, reaching approximately 7,482 persons by 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 650 persons and 9.5% over the 17-year period from 2024 to 2041.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Black Rock when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Black Rock averaged approximately 42 new dwelling approvals annually. Between financial years FY-21 and FY-25, around 213 homes were approved, with an additional 3 approved in FY-26 to date. Over the past five financial years, on average, 0.2 people moved to Black Rock for each dwelling built.

This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of new properties is $651,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, Black Rock has recorded $16.2 million in commercial development approvals, indicating balanced commercial development activity compared to Greater Melbourne. Despite having around 68% of construction activity per person, Black Rock ranks among the 88th percentile nationally for construction activity, with recent intensification. New developments consist of 16.0% detached houses and 84.0% medium to high-density housing, reflecting a shift from the current housing mix of 56.0% houses.

This trend addresses reduced development site availability and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Black Rock's population growth is projected to add 451 residents by 2041, with current construction levels expected to meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth beyond current forecasts.

Black Rock has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives are Sanctuary Sandringham, Beach Point Sandringham, The Coterie, and Miramar. Relevant projects are detailed subsequently.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Black Rock demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Black Rock has an educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate was 2.4% as of September 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Workforce participation was 61.1%, below Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training sectors. The area specializes in professional & technical jobs, with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level. Transport, postal & warehousing has limited presence at 2.6%, compared to 5.2% regionally.

Over the year to September 2025, employment remained stable while labour force increased by 0.8%, raising unemployment rate by 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%. State-level data from 25-Nov shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts suggest a 6.6% growth over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Black Rock's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.1% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income in Black Rock is $66,079, with an average of $116,371, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023. This places it among the top percentile nationally, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income will be approximately $71,531, and the average will be around $125,972, based on an 8.25% growth rate since financial year 2023. In Black Rock, household incomes rank between the 84th and 88th percentiles nationally, according to Census 2021 income data. Distribution shows that 31.2% of residents (2,131 individuals) fall within the $4000+ income range, differing from regional patterns where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 32.8%. The substantial proportion of high earners (42.7% above $3,000/week) indicates strong economic capacity throughout the district. After housing costs, residents retain 87.3% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Black Rock displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Black Rock, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 56.1% houses and 44.0% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 62.6% houses and 37.4% other dwellings. Home ownership level in Black Rock was 50.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.5% and rented ones at 17.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,897, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $3,000. Median weekly rent in Black Rock was $541, compared to Melbourne metro's $520. Nationally, Black Rock's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,897 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Black Rock has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 74.5% of all households, including 33.7% couples with children, 32.3% couples without children, and 7.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.5%, with lone person households at 24.3% and group households comprising 1.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Black Rock demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Black Rock is notably higher than broader Australian benchmarks. As of the latest data, 46.1% of residents aged 15 years and above hold university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and Victoria's 33.4%. This educational advantage is reflected in various qualification types: Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 30.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.8%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Vocational pathways account for 24.2% of qualifications among those aged 15 years and above, with advanced diplomas comprising 12.3% and certificates 11.9%.

Educational participation is high in Black Rock, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in secondary education, 8.4% in primary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Black Rock has 26 active public transport stops. These are served by buses on five different routes. Each week, these routes provide a total of 733 passenger trips.

Residents have good accessibility to transport, with an average distance of 211 meters to the nearest stop. On average, there are 104 bus trips per day across all routes, which equates to about 28 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Black Rock is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Black Rock shows superior health outcomes for both young and elderly cohorts, with low prevalence of common conditions. Approximately 73% (4,957 people) have private health cover, higher than Greater Melbourne's 78.0%, but below the national average of 55.7%. Arthritis and asthma are most prevalent, affecting 8.1 and 6.6% respectively.

71.1% report no medical ailments, slightly lower than Greater Melbourne's 72.0%. As of 30 June 20XX, 27.3% (1,865 people) are aged 65 and over, higher than Greater Melbourne's 22.9%. Senior health outcomes exceed general population metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Black Rock was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Black Rock's cultural diversity was found to be above average, with 11.6% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 25.5% born overseas. Christianity was the main religion in Black Rock, comprising 48.1% of the population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented in Black Rock at 0.8%, compared to 3.1% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (29.1%), Australian (23.1%), and Irish (9.8%). Some ethnic groups showed notable divergences: Polish was overrepresented at 1.1% in Black Rock versus 1.4% regionally, Scottish at 9.5% versus 8.3%, and French at 0.8% versus 0.7%.

Black Rock hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Black Rock has a median age of 49, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and also above the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 make up 14.4% of the population, a notably higher percentage than in Greater Melbourne or nationally (9.4%). Conversely, the 25-34 age group comprises only 5.2%, which is smaller compared to Greater Melbourne. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 75-84 age group has grown from 8.0% to 9.7%, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 11.8% to 13.4%. However, the 5-14 age group has declined from 11.8% to 10.7%, and the 45-54 group dropped from 15.5% to 14.4%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Black Rock's age structure. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 47%, reaching 977 people from the current 662. Notably, those aged 65 and above will account for 94% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic trend. In contrast, the 35-44 and 25-34 age groups are projected to experience population declines.