Black Rock (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Black Rock reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, the suburb of Black Rock (Vic.) had an estimated population of around 6,866 as of February 2026. This reflects a growth of 477 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,389. The increase was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 6,606 in June 2024, following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 30 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,152 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade ending in 2021, Black Rock demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.8%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, making adjustments employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate an expected increase just below the median of national statistical areas, with the suburb projected to increase by 628 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of approximately 5.9% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Black Rock when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Black Rock averaged approximately 42 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 213 homes were approved, with an additional 3 approved so far in FY-26. This suggests supply meets or exceeds demand, potentially facilitating population growth above projections.

The average expected construction cost value for new dwellings is $651,000, indicating a focus on the premium market. In FY-26, $16.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Black Rock shows around 67% of construction activity per person and ranks among the 88th percentile nationally. New development consists of 16.0% standalone homes and 84.0% attached dwellings, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands towards higher-density living. With approximately 89 people per dwelling approval, Black Rock exhibits characteristics of a growth area.

Future projections estimate an addition of 408 residents by 2041, with current development patterns suggesting new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Black Rock has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects likely to impact this region. Notable ones are Sanctuary Sandringham, Miramar, Beach Point Sandringham, and The Coterie. Details about these projects can be found below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Black Rock demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Black Rock has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 2.3% as of September 2025, below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation lagged at 65.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%.

A significant proportion, 48.0%, of residents worked from home according to Census responses, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment were professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Black Rock had a particular specialization in professional & technical jobs, with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level. Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing employed only 2.6% of local workers, lower than Greater Melbourne's 5.2%.

The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the Census working population count compared to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 0.1%, labour force by 0.7%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0% and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 projected overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Black Rock's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though this was a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and did not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Black Rock has an exceptionally high income level nationally according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year ended June 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Black Rock is $66,079 and the average income stands at $116,371. This compares with figures for Greater Melbourne of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $71,531 (median) and $125,972 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family and personal incomes in Black Rock rank highly nationally, between the 84th and 88th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that the largest segment comprises 31.2% earning $4000+ weekly (2,142 residents), differing from patterns across the surrounding region where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 32.8%. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 42.7% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. After housing costs, residents retain 87.3% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Black Rock displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Black Rock's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 56.1% houses and 44.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Black Rock stood at 50.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.5% and rented ones at 17.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,897, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent was $541, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Black Rock's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Black Rock has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 74.5% of all households, including 33.7% couples with children, 32.3% couples without children, and 7.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.5%, with lone person households at 24.3% and group households comprising 1.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Black Rock demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Black Rock is notably higher than national and state averages. As of 2021, 46.1% of residents aged 15 and above hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% in Australia and 33.4% in Victoria. The area's high educational attainment positions it well for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 30.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.8%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%).

Vocational pathways account for 24.2% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 12.3% and certificates at 11.9%. Educational participation is high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest data. This includes 9.5% in secondary education, 8.4% in primary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Black Rock has 26 active public transport stops serving a mix of bus routes. These are covered by five different routes offering 733 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically living 211 meters from the nearest stop. Primarily residential, most commuters travel outward. Cars dominate at 86%, followed by trains at 6% and walking at 4%. Average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.5, above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 48% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 104 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 28 weekly trips per individual stop.

Black Rock's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Black Rock, as per AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is very low across all age groups. Approximately 73% of Black Rock's total population (4,981 people) has private health cover, compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

Arthritis and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 8.1% and 6.6% of residents respectively, while 71.1% report being completely free of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. Black Rock has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 28.2% (1,936 people), compared to 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are strong and align with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Black Rock was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Black Rock's cultural diversity was found to be above average, with 11.6% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 25.5% born overseas. The predominant religion in Black Rock was Christianity, accounting for 48.1%. Judaism, however, was notably overrepresented at 0.8%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (29.1%), Australian (23.1%), and Irish (9.8%). Certain ethnicities showed significant differences: Polish was overrepresented at 1.1% in Black Rock versus 0.8% regionally, Scottish at 9.5% compared to 5.6%, and French at 0.8% against the regional average of 0.5%.

Black Rock hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Black Rock has a median age of 49, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and also above the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 make up 14.6% of the population, while those aged 25-34 constitute only 5.0%. This concentration of 65-74 year-olds is significantly higher than the national figure of 9.5%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 8.0% to 10.4%, while those aged 15 to 24 have increased from 11.8% to 13.6%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 15.5% to 14.0%, and the 5 to 14 age group has dropped from 11.8% to 10.4%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Black Rock's age structure. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 35%, reaching 964 people from the current figure of 714. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 88% of total population growth, reflecting Black Rock's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0 to 4 and 55 to 64 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.