Runaway Bay
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Runaway Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Runaway Bay's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 9,653. This figure represents an increase of 345 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 9,308. The growth is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 9,657 in June 2024 and an additional 27 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 1,758 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Runaway Bay's growth rate of 3.7% since the census is within 2.8 percentage points of the SA3 area's 6.5%, indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 86.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, based on 2021 data but lacking age category splits. Proportional growth weightings from ABS Greater Capital Region projections are applied when using state projections. Future population projections show an above median growth for Australia's regional areas, with Runaway Bay expected to expand by 1,388 persons to 2041, recording a total gain of 14.4% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Runaway Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Runaway Bay has recorded approximately 23 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling 118 homes. As of FY-26, 10 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.9 new residents arrive per year per new home between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating a balanced supply and demand creating stable market conditions. The average construction value of new properties is $630,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

In FY-26, $8.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to the Rest of Qld, Runaway Bay has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 54th percentile nationally, though development activity has increased recently. This lower rate may indicate market maturity or possible development constraints. New development consists of 35% standalone homes and 65% attached dwellings, favouring compact living which offers affordable entry pathways for downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. With around 321 people per dwelling approval, Runaway Bay exhibits characteristics of a low-density area.

By 2041, the population is expected to grow by 1,392 residents. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Runaway Bay has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 34thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects that could impact the region. Notable projects include Aqualis Runaway Bay, Harbour Town Premium Outlets Expansion, Ocean Suites on Jennifer, and Marella Residences. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Runaway Bay demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Runaway Bay has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 3.4% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.1%.

As of June 2025, there are 4,515 residents in work, and the unemployment rate is 0.5% lower than Rest of Qld's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in Runaway Bay is significantly lower at 50.3%, compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. The key industries employing local residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Notably, rental, hiring & real estate employs a share that is 2.5 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 0.6% of local workers, below Rest of Qld's 4.5%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the Census working population count compared to resident population. In the 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 2.1%, with labour force also increasing by 2.1%, leaving unemployment broadly flat at around 3.4%. This contrasts with Rest of Qld, where employment rose by 1.8%, labour force grew by 2.0%, and unemployment rose slightly to 4.1%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Runaway Bay's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.6%% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Runaway Bay's median income among taxpayers was $49,814 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $76,105 during the same period. This compares to figures for Rest of Qld which were $50,780 and $64,844 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $56,783 (median) and $86,752 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household income in Runaway Bay ranks between the 27th and 34th percentiles. Income analysis shows that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 26.4% of residents (2,548 people). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 25th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Runaway Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Runaway Bay, as per the latest Census, consisted of 45.3% houses and 54.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Qld's 41.7% houses and 58.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Runaway Bay stood at 45.4%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (29.2%) or rented (25.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,000, higher than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $435, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $410. Nationally, Runaway Bay's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Runaway Bay has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 67.7% of all households. They include 19.9% couples with children, 37.5% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.3%, with lone person households at 28.7% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Qld.

The educational profile of Runaway Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Runaway Bay differ from regional benchmarks, with 22.4% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 39.3% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (13.6%) and certificates (25.7%). A significant portion of the population is actively pursuing education, with 21.1% enrolled in formal courses.

This includes 7.1% in primary education, 6.3% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education. St Francis Xavier School serves Runaway Bay, enrolling 663 students as of a specific date. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available nearby. School places per 100 residents (6.9) are below the regional average (8.8), indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The public transport analysis indicates that there are 35 active transport stops operating within Runaway Bay. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 4 individual routes in operation. Collectively, these routes provide 1,788 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of the transport services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located an average of 199 meters from the nearest transport stop. The service frequency averages 255 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 51 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Runaway Bay is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows significant challenges in Runaway Bay, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Approximately 58% of the total population (5,579 people) have private health cover, compared to 53.9% across the rest of Queensland.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.4% and 6.7% of residents respectively. However, 63.5% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 64.5% in the rest of Queensland. Runaway Bay has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, with 32.8% (3,162 people) compared to 25.8% in the rest of Queensland. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are above average, even better than those of the general population.

Runaway Bay was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Runaway Bay has a higher level of cultural diversity compared to most local markets, with 11.7% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 31.7% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Runaway Bay, accounting for 58.7% of its population, which is slightly higher than the 51.1% figure across the rest of Queensland. The top three ancestry groups in Runaway Bay are English (33.7%), Australian (21.7%), and Irish (8.6%).

Notably, there are some variations in the representation of certain ethnic groups: New Zealanders make up 1.3% of Runaway Bay's population compared to 1.4% regionally, Russians comprise 0.5% versus 0.4%, and South Africans account for 0.6% versus 0.5%.

Runaway Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Runaway Bay's median age is 53 years, significantly higher than the Rest of Qld average of 41 and Australia's median of 38. The 75-84 cohort is notably over-represented at 12.9% compared to the Rest of Qld's average, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 7.9%. This concentration in the 75-84 age group is well above the national average of 6.0%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 8.7% to 10.7%, while the 85+ cohort increased from 4.5% to 5.7%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 age group has declined from 16.6% to 14.2%. By 2041, Runaway Bay is expected to see significant shifts in its age composition. The 85+ group will grow by 110%, reaching 1,153 people from 550. Those aged 65 and above will comprise 55% of the projected growth, while the 5-14 age group is expected to contract by 69 residents.