Runaway Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Runaway Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Runaway Bay's population was 9,308 as of the 2021 Census. As of Nov 2025, it is around 9,653, reflecting an increase of 345 people (3.7%). This change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 9,657 in June 2024 and 27 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 1,758 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Runaway Bay's growth rate of 3.7% since the census is within 2.8 percentage points of the SA3 area (6.5%). Overseas migration contributed approximately 86.0% of overall population gains recently.

For projections, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a 2022 base year for covered areas and Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data for non-covered areas post-2032. Age category splits are applied proportionally using ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023, based on 2022 data. Future population growth projects an above median increase for Australia's regional areas, with Runaway Bay expected to expand by 1,388 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 14.4% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Runaway Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Runaway Bay has recorded approximately 23 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling 118 homes. As of FY-26, 13 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.9 new residents arrive per year for each new home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. New properties are constructed at an average value of $630,000, targeting the premium market segment.

In FY-26, $8.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Rest of Qld, Runaway Bay has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 53rd percentile nationally, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 35.0% standalone homes and 65.0% attached dwellings, favouring compact living to attract downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. With around 321 people per dwelling approval, Runaway Bay exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. By 2041, the population is expected to grow by 1,392 residents, potentially leading to increased buyer competition and price support if housing supply struggles to match population growth at current development rates.

Looking ahead, Runaway Bay is expected to grow by 1,392 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Runaway Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include Harbour Town Premium Outlets Expansion, Twenty Hollywell Townhouses, Runaway Bay - Lae Drive & Bayview Street Road Works, and 31 Madang Crescent Townhouses. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Runaway Bay demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Runaway Bay has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 3.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.2%.

As of September 2025, there were 4,507 residents employed, and the unemployment rate was 0.5% lower than Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 50.3%, compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area had a particular specialization in rental, hiring & real estate, with an employment share 2.5 times the regional level.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing employed only 0.6% of local workers, below Rest of Qld's 4.5%. Employment opportunities appeared limited locally, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. In the 12 months prior, employment increased by 2.2%, while labour force grew by 2.3%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. This contrasted with Rest of Qld where employment rose by 1.7%, labour force grew by 2.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov showed Queensland's employment contracted by 0.01% (losing 1,210 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.2%, broadly in line with the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offered further insight into potential future demand within Runaway Bay. These projections estimated national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates varied significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Runaway Bay's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this was a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and did not account for localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Runaway Bay SA2 had a high national income level according to AreaSearch data from the Australian Taxation Office for financial year 2022. The median income among taxpayers was $49,814 and the average income stood at $76,105. This compares to figures for Rest of Qld's of $50,780 and $64,844 respectively. Based on a 13.99% growth in wages since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $56,783 (median) and $86,752 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes ranked modestly in Runaway Bay, between the 27th and 33rd percentiles. Income analysis showed that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominated with 26.4% of residents (2,548 people), similar to the regional trend where this cohort represented 31.7%. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 82.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 25th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Runaway Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Runaway Bay, as assessed at the 2016 Census, consisted of 45.3% houses and 54.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro Qld's 41.7% houses and 58.3% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Runaway Bay was 45.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.2% and rented dwellings at 25.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,000, higher than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure for Runaway Bay was $435, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $410. Nationally, Runaway Bay's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,000 than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Runaway Bay has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 67.7 percent of all households, including 19.9 percent that are couples with children, 37.5 percent that are couples without children, and 9.2 percent that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.3 percent, with lone person households at 28.7 percent and group households comprising 3.5 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which matches the average for the Rest of Qld.

The educational profile of Runaway Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Runaway Bay trail regional benchmarks; 22.4% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees compared to Australia's 30.4%. This gap indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are most common at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 39.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials; advanced diplomas account for 13.6% and certificates for 25.7%.

A substantial 21.1% of the population actively pursues formal education, including 7.1% in primary education, 6.3% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Runaway Bay has 35 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by four different routes that together facilitate 1,788 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent access to these stops, with an average distance of 199 meters to the nearest one.

The service frequency is 255 trips per day across all routes, which amounts to approximately 51 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Runaway Bay is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Runaway Bay faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Approximately 58% (~5,579 people) have private health cover, higher than Rest of Qld's 53.9%.

The most frequent medical issues are arthritis (11.4%) and mental health problems (6.7%), with 63.5% reporting no medical ailments, compared to 64.5% in Rest of Qld. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 32.8% (3,162 people), exceeding Rest of Qld's 25.8%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Runaway Bay was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Runaway Bay, surveyed in 2016, had a higher proportion of residents speaking a language other than English at home, with 11.7%, compared to the regional average. Overseas-born population was also higher at 31.7%. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 58.7% of the population, slightly higher than the Rest of Qld's 51.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (33.7%), Australian (21.7%), and Irish (8.6%). Notably, New Zealand-born residents were overrepresented at 1.3%, compared to the regional average of 1.4%. Russian and South African-born residents also showed higher representation at 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, compared to their regional averages of 0.4% and 0.5%.

Runaway Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Runaway Bay's median age is 53 years, which is significantly higher than the Rest of Qld average of 41 and considerably older than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Rest of Qld average, the 75-84 cohort is notably over-represented at 12.9% locally, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 7.9%. This 75-84 concentration is well above the national figure of 6.0%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 15 to 24 age group grew from 8.7% to 10.7%, while the 85+ cohort increased from 4.5% to 5.7%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort declined from 16.6% to 14.2%. By 2041, Runaway Bay is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 85+ group will grow by 110%, reaching 1,153 people from 550. Those aged 65 and above will comprise 55% of the projected growth. Conversely, the 5-14 group is expected to contract by 69 residents.