Runaway Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Runaway Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Runaway Bay's population stands at 9,661 as of February 2026, indicating a rise of 353 individuals (3.8%) since the 2021 Census which reported 9,308 inhabitants. This increase is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 9,657 in June 2024 and an additional 27 validated new addresses post-census. The population density is 1,759 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the national average according to AreaSearch's assessments. Runaway Bay's growth rate since census (3.8%) is within 2.7 percentage points of its SA3 area's growth (6.5%), reflecting strong fundamental growth indicators. Overseas migration drove this growth, contributing approximately 86.0% of total population gains recently. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, released in 2023 using 2021 data. However, these state projections lack age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings aligned with ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). By 2041, an above-median population growth is projected for Australia's regional areas, with Runaway Bay expected to expand by 1,388 persons, reflecting a total gain of 14.3% over the seventeen-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Runaway Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Runaway Bay has recorded approximately 23 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling 118 homes. In FY-26 so far, 13 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.9 new residents arrive per year for each new home built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. The average construction value of new properties is $630,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment.

This financial year has seen $8.7 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to the Rest of Qld, Runaway Bay has about two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 53rd percentile nationally, with development activity increasing recently. This lower rate indicates market maturity and potential development constraints. New development consists of 35% standalone homes and 65% attached dwellings, favouring compact living which attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. With around 321 people per dwelling approval, Runaway Bay is considered a low-density area.

By 2041, the population is expected to grow by 1,384 residents (AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Runaway Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include Harbour Town Premium Outlets Expansion, Twenty Hollywell Townhouses, Runaway Bay - Lae Drive & Bayview Street Road Works, and 31 Madang Crescent Townhouses. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Runaway Bay demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Runaway Bay has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 3.6% as of September 2025. This is 0.5% lower than the Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.2%.

There are 4,507 residents in work and workforce participation stands at 54.3%, significantly lagging behind Rest of Qld's 65.7%. According to Census responses, 20.0% of residents work from home. Key industries of employment include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a particular specialization in rental, hiring & real estate services, with an employment share 2.5 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 0.6% of local workers, below Rest of Qld's 4.5%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 2.2%, while labour force grew by 2.3%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. In contrast, Rest of Qld saw employment rise by 1.7% and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Runaway Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Runaway Bay SA2 had a higher income level than the national average according to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest ATO data for the financial year ended 30 June 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $52,401 and the average income stood at $72,789. These figures compared to those for Rest of Qld which were $53,146 and $66,593 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% from financial year 2023 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $57,594 (median) and $80,002 (average). The 2021 Census data showed household, family, and personal incomes ranked modestly in Runaway Bay, between the 27th and 33rd percentiles. Income analysis revealed that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominated with 26.4% of residents (2,550 people). Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 82.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 25th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Runaway Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Runaway Bay, as evaluated at the latest Census conducted on 29 August 2016, comprised 45.3% houses and 54.7% other dwellings such as semi-detached, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Non-Metro Qld's 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. The level of home ownership within Runaway Bay was at 45.4%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (29.2%) or rented (25.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was recorded at $2,000 as of June 2018, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $435 during the same period, compared to Non-Metro Qld's average mortgage repayment of $1,655 and weekly rent of $345. Nationally, Runaway Bay's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863 as of June 2018, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375 during the same period.

Runaway Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.7% of all households, including 19.9% couples with children, 37.5% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 32.3%, with lone person households at 28.7% and group households making up 3.5%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Runaway Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Runaway Bay's residents aged 15 and above have a university degree attainment rate of 22.4%, compared to Australia's 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (13.6%) and certificates (25.7%), are held by 39.3% of residents in this age group. A significant portion, 21.1%, is currently engaged in formal education: 7.1% in primary, 6.3% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education.

A substantial 21.1% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 7.1% in primary education, 6.3% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Runaway Bay indicates that there are currently 34 operational bus stops serving the area. These stops are facilitated by four distinct routes, collectively enabling 1,788 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is deemed excellent, with residents typically residing just 199 meters away from their nearest stop. As a predominantly residential region, most inhabitants commute outward, with cars remaining the primary mode of transportation at 92%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, approximately 20% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages out to 255 trips per day across all routes, translating to roughly 52 weekly trips per individual stop.

Runaway Bay's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Runaway Bay. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were assessed by AreaSearch, with younger cohorts showing very low prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover was found to be very high at approximately 55% of the total population (~5,352 people), compared to 52.5% across Rest of Qld. The most common medical conditions in the area were arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 11.4 and 6.7% of residents respectively. 63.5% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 67.6% across Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 32.6% of residents aged 65 and over (3,150 people), which is higher than the 20.4% in Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Runaway Bay was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Runaway Bay, compared to most local markets, exhibited high cultural diversity with 11.7% of residents speaking a language other than English at home and 31.7% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Runaway Bay, accounting for 58.7%, slightly higher than the regional average of 52.2%. In terms of ancestry, the three most represented groups were English (33.7%), Australian (21.7%), and Irish (8.6%).

Notably, New Zealanders were overrepresented at 1.3% compared to the regional average of 0.9%, as were Russians at 0.5% versus 0.2%, and South Africans at 0.6% against a regional average of 0.5%.

Runaway Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Runaway Bay's median age at 53 years is significantly higher than the Rest of Qld average of 41 and considerably older than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Rest of Qld average, the 75-84 cohort is notably over-represented in Runaway Bay at 12.7%, while the 5-14 year-olds are under-represented at 7.8%. This concentration of the 75-84 age group is well above the national average of 6.1%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 15 to 24 age group grew from 8.7% to 11.1%, and the 85+ cohort increased from 4.5% to 6.1%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort declined from 16.6% to 13.8%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 14.2% to 12.9%. By 2041, Runaway Bay's age composition is expected to shift notably. Leading this demographic shift, the 85+ group will grow by 96% (565 people), reaching 1,153 from 587. The aging population trend is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 56% of projected growth. Conversely, both the 5-14 and 15-24 age groups will see reduced numbers.