Runaway Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Runaway Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Runaway Bay's population is around 9,661 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 353 people (3.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,308 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,657 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 27 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,759 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Runaway Bay's 3.8% growth since the census positions it within 2.7 percentage points of the SA3 area (6.5%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 86.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence, where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above-median population growth for Australia's regional areas is projected, with the area expected to expand by 1,388 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 14.3% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Runaway Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Runaway Bay has recorded around 23 residential properties granted approval per year, totalling 118 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 12 approvals have been recorded. At an average of 1.9 new residents arriving per new home per year over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $630,000, revealing that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Additionally, $8.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature.

Compared to the rest of Qld, Runaway Bay has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks in the 53rd percentile of areas assessed nationally, though development activity has picked up in recent periods. This is likewise lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. New development consists of 35.0% standalone homes and 65.0% attached dwellings. This skew toward compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. With around 321 people per dwelling approval, Runaway Bay shows characteristics of a low density area.

Looking ahead, Runaway Bay is expected to grow by 1,384 residents through to 2041 (based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Runaway Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 26 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Harbour Town Premium Outlets Expansion, Twenty Hollywell Townhouses, Runaway Bay - Lae Drive & Bayview Street Road Works, and 31 Madang Crescent Townhouses, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Runaway Bay demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Runaway Bay features a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation, an unemployment rate of only 3.6%, and 2.5% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 4,551 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 0.4% below Regional Qld's rate of 4.0%, and workforce participation lags significantly (54.8% compared to Regional Qld's 65.4%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 20.0% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a particular employment specialization in rental, hiring & real estate, with an employment share 2.5 times the regional level. In contrast, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 0.6% of local workers, which is below Regional Qld's 4.5%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 2.5% alongside the labour force increasing by 2.5%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. This contrasts with Regional Qld, where employment rose by 0.7%, the labour force grew by 1.0%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Runaway Bay. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Runaway Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Runaway Bay SA2's income level is higher than the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Runaway Bay SA2's median income among taxpayers is $52,401 and the average income stands at $72,789, compared to figures for Regional Qld's of $53,146 and $66,593 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $57,594 (median) and $80,002 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Runaway Bay, between the 27th and 33rd percentiles. Income analysis reveals the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 26.4% of residents (2,550 people), aligning with the region where this cohort likewise represents 31.7%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 25th percentile, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Runaway Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Runaway Bay, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 45.3% houses and 54.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Qld's 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Runaway Bay was well beyond that of Regional Qld, at 45.4%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (29.2%) or rented (25.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Regional Qld average at $2,000, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $435, compared to Regional Qld's $1,655 and $345. Nationally, Runaway Bay's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Runaway Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 67.7% of all households, comprising 19.9% couples with children, 37.5% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.3%, with lone person households at 28.7% and group households comprising 3.5% of the total. The median household size of 2.2 people is smaller than the Regional Qld average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Runaway Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Runaway Bay trail regional benchmarks, with 22.4% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 30.4% in Australia. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 39.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (13.6%) and certificates (25.7%).

A substantial 21.1% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 7.1% in primary education, 6.3% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 34 active transport stops operating within Runaway Bay, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 4 individual routes, collectively providing 1,788 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 199 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward, and the car remains the dominant mode at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. Some 20.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 255 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 52 weekly trips per individual stop.

Runaway Bay's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Runaway Bay, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Younger cohorts in particular see very low prevalence of common health conditions, and the rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 55% of the total population (~5,352 people), compared to 52.5% across Regional Qld.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 11.4% and 6.7% of residents, respectively, while 63.5% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 32.6% of residents aged 65 and over (3,150 people), which is higher than the 20.4% in Regional Qld. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Runaway Bay was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Runaway Bay is more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 11.7% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 31.7% born overseas. The main religion in Runaway Bay is Christianity, which makes up 58.7% of the population, compared to 52.2% across Regional Qld.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Runaway Bay are English, comprising 33.7% of the population, Australian, comprising 21.7% of the population, and Irish, comprising 8.6% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: New Zealand is notably overrepresented at 1.3% of Runaway Bay (vs 0.9% regionally), Russian at 0.5% (vs 0.2%) and South Australian at 0.6% (vs 0.5%).

Runaway Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

At 53 years, Runaway Bay's median age is significantly above the Regional Qld average of 41 as well as considerably older than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Regional Qld average, the 75 - 84 cohort is notably over-represented (12.7% locally), while 5 - 14 year-olds are under-represented (7.8%). This 75 - 84 concentration is well above the national 6.1%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 8.7% to 11.1% of the population, while the 85+ cohort increased from 4.5% to 6.1%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 16.6% to 13.8% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 14.2% to 12.9%. By 2041, Runaway Bay is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading the demographic shift, the 85+ group will grow by 96% (565 people), reaching 1,153 from 587. The aging population dynamic is clear, with those 65+ comprising 56% of projected growth. Conversely, both 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 age groups will see reduced numbers.