Runaway Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Runaway Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Runaway Bay's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 9,661. This figure reflects a growth of 353 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 9,308. The increase is inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,657 in June 2024 and an additional 27 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 1,759 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Runaway Bay's growth rate of 3.8% since the census places it within 2.7 percentage points of the SA3 area (6.5%), indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 86.0% of overall population gains in recent periods, driving primary growth in the area.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections from 2023, based on 2021 data, are adopted. However, these state projections lack age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023, using 2022 data for each age cohort. Looking ahead, the area is projected to experience above median population growth for Australia's regional areas, with an expected expansion of 1,388 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 14.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Runaway Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Runaway Bay has recorded approximately 23 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling 118 homes. As of FY-26, 13 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.9 new residents arrive per year for each new home approved between FY-21 and FY-25, suggesting a balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. The average construction value of new properties is $630,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment.

In FY-26, $8.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Runaway Bay has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 53rd percentile nationally, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. New developments consist of 35% standalone homes and 65% attached dwellings, favouring compact living which attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. With around 321 people per dwelling approval, Runaway Bay is considered a low-density area. By 2041, the population is expected to grow by 1,384 residents.

At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Runaway Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

AreaSearch has identified a total of 26 projects that could impact the area's performance. Key projects include Harbour Town Premium Outlets Expansion, Twenty Hollywell Townhouses, Runaway Bay - Lae Drive & Bayview Street Road Works, and 31 Madang Crescent Townhouses. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Runaway Bay demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Runaway Bay has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 3.6% as of September 2025, which is 0.5% lower than the Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.2%.

There were 4,507 residents in work as of September 2025, with workforce participation at 54.5%, significantly lagging behind Rest of Qld's 65.7%. According to Census responses, 20.0% of residents worked from home. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Runaway Bay has a particular specialization in rental, hiring & real estate services, with an employment share 2.5 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 0.6% of local workers, below Rest of Qld's 4.5%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. In the 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 2.2%, while labour force grew by 2.3%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. This contrasts with Rest of Qld, where employment rose by 1.7%, labour force grew by 2.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Runaway Bay's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Runaway Bay SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $52,401 and an average income of $72,789 in the financial year 2023, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This compares to figures for Rest of Qld's of $53,146 and $66,593 respectively. By September 2025, based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91%, the median income is estimated at approximately $57,594 and the average income at $80,002. The 2021 Census data shows that household, family and personal incomes in Runaway Bay rank modestly, between the 27th and 33rd percentiles. Income analysis reveals that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 26.4% of residents (2,550 people). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 25th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Runaway Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Runaway Bay, as per the latest Census, 45.3% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 54.7% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Non-Metro Qld's figures of 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Runaway Bay stood at 45.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.2% and rented ones at 25.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, higher than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,655. The median weekly rent in Runaway Bay was $435, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $345. Nationally, Runaway Bay's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Runaway Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.7% of all households, including 19.9% couples with children, 37.5% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 32.3%, composed of 28.7% lone person households and 3.5% group households. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Runaway Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Runaway Bay trail regional benchmarks, with 22.4% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.3% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 13.6% and certificates at 25.7%. A significant portion, 21.1%, is actively pursuing formal education.

This includes 7.1% in primary education, 6.3% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Runaway Bay has 34 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by four different routes that collectively provide 1788 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 199 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Runaway Bay being primarily residential. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 92%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling in the area, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 20% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 255 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 52 weekly trips per individual stop.

Runaway Bay's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Runaway Bay, based on AreaSearch's assessment as of May 2021. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were found to be low, particularly in younger cohorts.

Private health cover was very high at approximately 55% of the total population (~5,352 people), compared to 52.5% across Rest of Qld. The most common medical conditions were arthritis (11.4%) and mental health issues (6.7%). 63.5% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 67.6% across Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. As of May 2021, 32.8% of residents were aged 65 and over (3,164 people), higher than the 20.0% in Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among seniors are above average but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Runaway Bay was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Runaway Bay, surveyed in August 2016, had a higher linguistic diversity than most local markets, with 11.7% of its residents speaking a language other than English at home. Born overseas, 31.7% of Runaway Bay's population was recorded in June 2018. Christianity was the predominant religion in Runaway Bay as of June 2016, comprising 58.7% of the population, compared to 52.2% across the Rest of Qld.

In terms of ancestry, as of June 2016, English was the top group at 33.7%, followed by Australian at 21.7% and Irish at 8.6%. Noteworthy differences were observed in the representation of New Zealanders (1.3% vs regional 0.9%), Russians (0.5% vs 0.2%) and South Africans (0.6% vs 0.5%).

Runaway Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Runaway Bay's median age is 53 years, which is significantly higher than the Rest of Qld average of 41 and considerably older than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Rest of Qld average, the 75-84 cohort is notably over-represented at 12.9% locally, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 7.9%. This concentration of the 75-84 cohort is well above the national average of 6.0%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 8.7% to 10.7%, while the 85+ cohort increased from 4.5% to 5.7%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 16.6% to 14.2%. By 2041, Runaway Bay is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 85+ group will grow by 109%, reaching 1,153 people from 550. Those aged 65 and above will comprise 55% of the projected growth. Conversely, both the 15 to 24 and 5 to 14 age groups are expected to decrease in number.