Runaway Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Runaway Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Runaway Bay's population is 9,774 as of May 2026. This figure reflects a growth of 466 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,308. The increase is inferred from ABS' June 2025 estimate of 9,755 and validated new addresses since the Census date. Runaway Bay's population density is 1,780 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Its 5% growth since census is competitive with its SA3 area's 7%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 80.4% of recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, released in 2023 based on 2021 data. These state projections lack age category splits; AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings from ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort. Future trends project an above median population growth for the area, with an expected increase of 1,378 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 13.9% over 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Runaway Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Runaway Bay has recorded approximately 23 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 118 homes were approved, with an additional 13 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 1.9 new residents have arrived per new home each year over this period, suggesting balanced supply and demand conditions.

The average construction value for new homes is $630,000, indicating a focus on the premium market segment. This financial year has seen $8.7 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Runaway Bay shows around 63% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 53rd percentile nationally. Recent construction comprises 35.0% standalone homes and 65.0% medium and high-density housing. The location has approximately 321 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market.

Population forecasts estimate Runaway Bay will gain 1,359 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Runaway Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects that could affect the region. Notable ones include Harbour Town Premium Outlets Expansion, Twenty Hollywell Townhouses, Runaway Bay - Lae Drive & Bayview Street Road Works, and 31 Madang Crescent Townhouses. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Runaway Bay has been broadly consistent with national averages

Runaway Bay has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 3.6%. Over the past year, estimated employment growth was 2.5%. As of December 2025, there are 4,551 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 0.4% below Regional Qld's rate of 4.0%.

Workforce participation in Runaway Bay is 54.1%, significantly lower than Regional Qld's 64.5%. According to Census responses, 20.0% of residents work from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a particular specialization in rental, hiring & real estate services, with an employment share 2.5 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 0.6% of local workers, below Regional Qld's 4.5%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by the count of working population versus resident population. In the 12-month period ending in May-25, employment increased by 2.5% alongside labour force growth of 2.5%, keeping unemployment broadly flat. This contrasts with Regional Qld, where employment rose by 0.7%, labour force grew by 1.0%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Runaway Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, although this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Runaway Bay SA2 had a median income of $52,401 and an average income of $72,789 in the financial year 2023, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. These figures were higher than those for Regional Qld, which stood at $53,146 (median) and $66,593 (average). Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 11.36% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $58,354 (median) and $81,058 (average). The 2021 Census showed household, family, and personal incomes in Runaway Bay ranked modestly between the 27th and 33rd percentiles. Income analysis revealed that the majority of residents, 26.4% or 2,580 people, fell into the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, similar to the regional trend where this cohort also represented 31.7%. Housing affordability pressures were severe in Runaway Bay, with only 82.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 25th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Runaway Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Runaway Bay, as per the latest Census, consisted of 45.3% houses and 54.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional Qld's 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Runaway Bay stood at 45.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.2% and rented ones at 25.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, higher than Regional Qld's average of $1,655. Median weekly rent in Runaway Bay was recorded at $435, compared to Regional Qld's $345. Nationally, Runaway Bay's mortgage repayments were above the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher than the national figure of $375.

Runaway Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.7% of all households, including 19.9% couples with children, 37.5% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 32.3%, with lone person households at 28.7% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional Queensland average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Runaway Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Runaway Bay lag behind regional benchmarks, with 22.4% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to the Australian average of 30.4%. This gap indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are most common at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 39.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (13.6%) and certificates (25.7%).

A significant portion, 21.1%, of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 7.1% in primary education, 6.3% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Runaway Bay has 34 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by four routes that collectively facilitate 1,788 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed excellent, with residents typically situated 199 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily due to its residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 92%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.3, lower than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 20% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 255 trips daily across all routes, which translates to approximately 52 weekly trips per individual stop.

Runaway Bay's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis shows strong health performance across Runaway Bay. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low, particularly among younger cohorts.

Private health cover was high at approximately 55%, compared to 52.5% in Regional Qld (~5,414 people). Common conditions included arthritis (11.4%) and mental health issues (6.7%). 63.5% reported no medical ailments, compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld. Health outcomes among working-age residents were typical. The area had 33.2% of residents aged 65 and over (3,244 people), higher than the 20.4% in Regional Qld. Senior health outcomes ranked above average but lower nationally compared to the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Runaway Bay was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Runaway Bay, as per the 2016 Census, had a higher proportion of residents speaking languages other than English at home, with 11.7%, compared to most local markets. Overseas-born population in Runaway Bay was 31.7%. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 58.7%, slightly higher than Regional Qld's 52.2%.

For ancestry, English was the highest at 33.7%, followed by Australian at 21.7% and Irish at 8.6%. Notably, New Zealand-born residents were overrepresented at 1.3%, compared to the regional average of 0.9%. Similarly, Russian-born residents stood at 0.5%, higher than the regional 0.2%, and South Australian-born residents were at 0.6%, slightly above the regional 0.5%.

Runaway Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Runaway Bay's median age stands at 53 years, significantly higher than the Regional Queensland average of 41 and the Australian median of 38. Comparing with the Regional Queensland average, the 75-84 cohort is notably over-represented in Runaway Bay (13.2% locally), while the 25-34 age group is under-represented (7.5%). This concentration of the 75-84 cohort exceeds the national figure of 6.1%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 8.7% to 10.6%, while the 85+ cohort increased from 4.5% to 6.2%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort declined from 16.6% to 13.8%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 14.2% to 13.0%. By 2041, Runaway Bay is projected to experience notable shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the 85+ group will grow by 96%, reaching 1,180 people from 603. The aging population trend is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 58% of the projected growth. Conversely, both the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 age groups are expected to decrease in number.