Runaway Bay
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Runaway Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Runaway Bay's population is around 9655 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 347 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9308 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 9657 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 28 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1758 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Runaway Bay's growth rate of 3.7% since census positions it within 2.8 percentage points of the SA3 area (6.5%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 86.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, released in 2023 based on 2021 data. These state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort, released in 2023 based on 2022 data. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above median population growth of Australia's regional areas is projected, with the area expected to expand by 1388 persons to 2041 based on latest population numbers, recording a gain of 14.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Runaway Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Runaway Bay has recorded approximately 23 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data from the ABS is on a financial year basis, totalling 118 approvals over the past five years (FY-21 to FY-25), with 3 approvals so far in FY-26. Over these five years, an average of 1.9 people have moved to the area for each dwelling built. This indicates a balanced supply and demand market, supporting stable conditions.

New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $704,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting focus on quality developments. In FY-26, $8.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Rest of Qld, Runaway Bay has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 54th percentile nationally for development activity, though recent periods show an increase. This lower rate may reflect market maturity and possible development constraints. New developments consist of 35% standalone homes and 65% attached dwellings, favouring compact living options which offer affordable entry pathways attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers.

Runaway Bay has around 321 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density area. By 2041, the population is expected to grow by approximately 1,390 residents. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Runaway Bay has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 34thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects that may impact this region. Notable projects include Aqualis Runaway Bay, Harbour Town Premium Outlets Expansion, Ocean Suites on Jennifer, and Marella Residences. The following list details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market in Runaway Bay demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Runaway Bay has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 3.4% as of June 2025. In the past year, there was an estimated employment growth of 2.1%.

There are 4,515 residents in work while the unemployment rate is 0.5% below Rest of Qld's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation lags significantly at 50.3%, compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a significant employment specialization in rental, hiring & real estate, with an employment share of 2.5 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 0.6% of local workers, below Rest of Qld's 4.5%. Limited employment opportunities locally are indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 2.1%, with labour force increasing by 2.1%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. This contrasts with Rest of Qld where employment rose by 1.8%, labour force grew by 2.0%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows Queensland's employment contracted by 0.23% (losing 8,070 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.2%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%, but lags behind national employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest that while national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Runaway Bay's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.6%% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Runaway Bay's median income among taxpayers was $49,814 according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. The average income stood at $76,105 in the same period. These figures compare to Rest of Qld's median and average incomes of $50,780 and $64,844 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 11.71% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Runaway Bay would be approximately $55,647 (median) and $85,017 (average) as of March 2025. The 2021 Census data places household, family, and personal incomes in Runaway Bay between the 27th and 34th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 26.4% of residents (2,548 people). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 25th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Runaway Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Runaway Bay, as per the latest Census evaluation, 45.3% of dwellings were houses while 54.7% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is in contrast to Non-Metro Qld's figures which stood at 41.7% houses and 58.3% other dwellings respectively. Home ownership in Runaway Bay was recorded at 45.4%, with mortgaged properties accounting for 29.2% and rented dwellings making up 25.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,000, exceeding Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Runaway Bay was $435 compared to Non-Metro Qld's figure of $410. Nationally, Runaway Bay's median monthly mortgage repayments were higher at $2,000 against the Australian average of $1,863, while median weekly rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Runaway Bay has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 67.7% of all households, consisting of 19.9% couples with children, 37.5% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 32.3%, with lone person households at 28.7% and group households making up 3.5%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which aligns with the Rest of Qld average.

The educational profile of Runaway Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Runaway Bay trail Australian benchmarks. 22.4% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees, compared to the national average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prominent with 39.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.6%) and certificates (25.7%).

21.1% of the population actively pursue formal education, including primary (7.1%), secondary (6.3%), and tertiary education (3.6%). St Francis Xavier School serves Runaway Bay with an enrollment of 663 students. The school's ICSEA score is 1070, indicating above-average socio-educational conditions. It focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. There are 6.9 school places per 100 residents in Runaway Bay, below the regional average of 8.8.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 35 active stops operating within Runaway Bay, offering mixed bus services. These stops are served by 4 routes, facilitating a total of 1788 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed excellent, with residents situated an average of 199 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 255 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 51 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Runaway Bay is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Runaway Bay faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across all age groups. Private health cover is notably high at approximately 58%, compared to 53.9% in the rest of Queensland.

The most frequent medical issues are arthritis (11.4%) and mental health concerns (6.7%), while 63.5% report no medical ailments, slightly lower than the 64.5% in the rest of Queensland. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 32.8%, exceeding the 25.8% state average. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are above average, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

Runaway Bay was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Runaway Bay had a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 11.7% of its residents speaking a language other than English at home and 31.7% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Runaway Bay, accounting for 58.7% of the population, compared to 51.1% across the rest of Queensland. The top three ancestry groups in Runaway Bay were English (33.7%), Australian (21.7%), and Irish (8.6%).

Notably, New Zealand was overrepresented at 1.3%, compared to 1.4% regionally; Russian was at 0.5% versus 0.4%; and South African was at 0.6% against 0.5%.

Runaway Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Runaway Bay's median age is 53 years, which is significantly higher than Queensland's average of 41 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Queensland's average, Runaway Bay has a notably high proportion of people aged 75-84 (12.9%) and a low proportion of those aged 25-34 (7.9%). This concentration of the 75-84 age group is well above the national average of 6%. According to post-2021 Census data, Runaway Bay's population has seen changes in its age distribution: the 15 to 24 age group grew from 8.7% to 10.7%, while the 85+ cohort increased from 4.5% to 5.7%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 age group decreased from 16.6% to 14.2%. By 2041, Runaway Bay's population is expected to experience significant shifts in its age composition: the 85+ group will grow by 110%, reaching 1,153 people from 550, and those aged 65 and above will comprise 55% of projected growth. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 age group is expected to decrease by 69 residents.