Muswellbrook Surrounds

An assessment of population growth drivers in Muswellbrook Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Muswellbrook Surrounds' population was 4,276 as of May 2026, according to AreaSearch's analysis. This figure represents an increase of 193 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 4,083. The growth is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 4,264 in June 2025 and 42 validated new addresses added since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1.4 persons per square kilometer. Muswellbrook Surrounds' 4.7% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's 2.4%, indicating it was a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 50.4% of overall population gains, although all drivers including interstate migration and natural growth were positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where applicable, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from these aggregations for years 2032 to 2041. Nationally, non-metropolitan areas are projected to have above median population growth. Muswellbrook Surrounds is expected to grow by 549 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 12.6% in total over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Muswellbrook Surrounds according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Muswellbrook Surrounds has seen approximately 19 new homes approved annually. From FY21 to FY25, around 99 homes were approved, with a further 12 approved in FY26 so far. On average, about 1.4 people have moved to the area for each dwelling built over these five years.

This balance between supply and demand has maintained stable market conditions. The average construction value of new properties is around $282,000, aligning with regional patterns. In FY26, commercial approvals totalled $988,000, indicating a primarily residential focus. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Muswellbrook Surrounds has 69% more building activity per person, providing buyers with greater choice. However, building activity has slowed in recent years.

The area's new building activity consists of 73% detached houses and 27% medium and high-density housing, preserving its traditional low-density character while showing a shift from the existing housing stock, which is currently 92% houses. This reflects decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles seeking more diverse, affordable housing options. The estimated population per dwelling approval is around 420 people, indicating a quiet development environment. Population forecasts suggest Muswellbrook Surrounds will gain approximately 537 residents by 2041. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Muswellbrook Surrounds has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 46 projects that are anticipated to impact the area. Notable projects include West Denman Urban Release Area, Denman Renewable Energy Park, Denman Park Estate, Denman to Sandy Hollow Pipeline, and Denman Water Treatment Plant upgrade. The following list details those projects expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Muswellbrook Surrounds shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Muswellbrook Surrounds has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. Manufacturing and industrial sectors are strongly represented. The unemployment rate is 2.4%.

Employment stability has been maintained over the past year. As of December 2025, 2,248 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.5% lower than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation stands at 64.6%, slightly higher than Regional NSW's 60.5%. According to Census responses, 15.5% of residents work from home.

Employment is concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing, mining, and education & training. Mining employs 8.2 times more residents compared to the regional level. Health care & social assistance employs 6.4% of local workers, lower than Regional NSW's 16.9%. Some residents commute elsewhere for work. Between December 2024 and December 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.8% while employment declined by 0.4%, leading to a 0.4 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced an employment decline of 1.2%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Muswellbrook Surrounds' employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 4.5% over five years and 10.6% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

Muswellbrook Surrounds SA2 had a higher income level than the national average in financial year 2023, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. The median income among taxpayers was $56,508 and the average income stood at $70,496. These figures compared to Regional NSW's median of $52,390 and average of $65,215 respectively. By March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $62,340 (median) and $77,771 (average), based on a 10.32% growth in wages since financial year 2023. In the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes ranked modestly in Muswellbrook Surrounds, between the 49th and 49th percentiles. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 dominated with 28.2% of residents (1,205 people), similar to the surrounding region where 29.9% occupied this bracket. After housing costs, residents retained 87.5% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power.

Muswellbrook Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Muswellbrook Surrounds, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.9% houses and 8.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Muswellbrook Surrounds was 38.4%, with the rest being mortgaged (37.6%) or rented (24.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, aligning with Regional NSW's average. Median weekly rent was $280, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Muswellbrook Surrounds' mortgage repayments were lower at $1,733 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially lower at $280 compared to the national figure of $375.

Muswellbrook Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 72.7% of all households, including 30.9% couples with children, 31.3% couples without children, and 9.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 27.3%, with lone person households at 25.0% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Muswellbrook Surrounds faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.0%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 46.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (36.1%).

Educational participation is high, with 29.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.6% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 1.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Muswellbrook Surrounds indicates that there are 218 active transport stops currently operating. These stops offer a mix of bus services, with a total of 25 individual routes providing passenger trips. Each week, these routes facilitate 534 passenger trips collectively. The accessibility to transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located approximately 140 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential area, most residents commute outward. The car remains the primary mode of transportation for commuting at 91%, while walking accounts for 6%.

On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling in the area, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, some 15.5% of residents work from home, which may be partially attributed to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 76 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately two weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanies this analysis and shows the locations of the 100 nearest transport stops to the area's centerpoint.

Health performance in Muswellbrook Surrounds is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Muswellbrook Surrounds faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment conducted on July 17th, 2021. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts in the area.

The rate of private health cover stands at approximately 54% of the total population (around 2,313 people), compared to 51.9% across Regional NSW as of December 31st, 2020. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 9.7% and 8.5% of residents respectively, while 65.9% of residents claim to be completely free from medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW as of June 30th, 2021. Working-age residents exhibit a higher-than-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 19.2% of residents aged 65 and over (822 people), which is lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW as of June 30th, 2021. Health outcomes among seniors present notable challenges, with national rankings higher than those of the general population.

The latest Census data sees Muswellbrook Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Muswellbrook Surrounds had a cultural diversity score below average, with 90.0% of its population being citizens, 92.2% born in Australia, and 98.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Muswellbrook Surrounds, comprising 69.1%, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (36.4%), English (32.6%), and Irish (8.7%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher at 4.7% in Muswellbrook Surrounds than the regional average of 4.6%. Maltese and South Australian representations were also higher, at 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, compared to regional averages of 0.4% and 0.2%.

Muswellbrook Surrounds's median age exceeds the national pattern

Muswellbrook Surrounds' median age is 42 years, comparable to Regional NSW's average of 43 but higher than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows that 15.0% are aged 55-64, while 10.0% are aged 65-74, both figures being different from those in Regional NSW. Between 2021 and the present, the percentage of people aged 75 to 84 has increased from 5.7% to 6.9%, and the 15 to 24 age group has risen from 11.4% to 12.5%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group has decreased from 13.6% to 11.7%, and the 45 to 54 age group has dropped from 14.3% to 12.8%. Population forecasts for the year 2041 suggest significant demographic changes in Muswellbrook Surrounds, with the strongest projected growth in the 35 to 44 age cohort, expected to grow by 26%, adding 135 residents to reach a total of 652. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 age groups.