Muswellbrook Surrounds

An assessment of population growth drivers in Muswellbrook Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Muswellbrook Surrounds' population is approximately 4,293 as of February 2026. This figure represents a growth of 210 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,083. The increase was inferred from the estimated resident population of 4,206 in June 2024 and an additional 39 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1.4 persons per square kilometer. Muswellbrook Surrounds' growth rate of 5.1% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 3.0%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 49.5% to this population gain, with other factors such as overseas migration and natural growth also being positive contributors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by these projections, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Nationally, non-metropolitan areas are projected to have above median population growth, with Muswellbrook Surrounds expected to grow by 565 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 11.1% over the 17-year period based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Muswellbrook Surrounds according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Muswellbrook Surrounds has approved around 19 new homes annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, 99 homes were approved, with an additional 7 approved so far in FY26. On average, 1.4 people moved to the area per dwelling built over these five years.

This balance between supply and demand has created stable market conditions. The average construction cost of new properties is $282,000, aligning with regional patterns. In FY26, $988,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Muswellbrook Surrounds has 70.0% more building activity per person. The area's new building activity consists of 73.0% detached houses and 27.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining its traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

This shift from the existing 92.0% houses indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 420 people, reflecting its quiet development environment. Population forecasts indicate Muswellbrook Surrounds will gain 478 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth.

Muswellbrook Surrounds has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

The performance of a region is significantly impacted by changes in local infrastructure. AreaSearch has identified 46 projects that could potentially affect this area. Notable projects include West Denman Urban Release Area, Denman Renewable Energy Park, Denman Park Estate, and the pipeline from Denman to Sandy Hollow along with the upgrade of Denman Water Treatment Plant. The following list details those projects likely to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Muswellbrook Surrounds shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Muswellbrook Surrounds has a balanced workforce with representation from both white and blue collar jobs. Manufacturing and industrial sectors are strongly represented in the area, which has an unemployment rate of 2.3%. As of September 2025, there are 2,238 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.5% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation is at 65.1%, compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. According to Census responses, 15.5% of residents work from home. Employment in the area is concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing, mining, and education & training sectors. The area has a particularly strong specialization in mining, with an employment share 8.2 times the regional level.

In contrast, health care & social assistance employs only 6.4% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's rate of 16.9%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on the count of Census working population to local population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force decreased by 2.8%, while employment declined by 2.5%, resulting in a fall in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.5% and a labour force decline of 0.1%, with a rise in unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Muswellbrook Surrounds' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 4.5% over five years and 10.6% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

Muswellbrook Surrounds SA2's median income among taxpayers was $56,508 and average income stood at $70,496 in financial year 2023 according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This compares to Rest of NSW's figures of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. By September 2025, current estimates based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% would be approximately $61,515 for median income and $76,742 for average income. From the 2021 Census, household incomes ranked at the 49th percentile in Muswellbrook Surrounds. Family incomes also ranked at the 49th percentile. Personal incomes ranked modestly between the 49th and 50th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that 28.2% of residents (1,210 people) fell within the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, mirroring the surrounding region where 29.9% occupied this bracket. After housing costs, residents retained 87.5% of their income.

Muswellbrook Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Muswellbrook Surrounds' dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.9% houses and 8.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Non-Metro NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Muswellbrook Surrounds was 38.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.6% and rented ones at 24.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, matching Non-Metro NSW's average. The median weekly rent was $280 compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Muswellbrook Surrounds' mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Muswellbrook Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.7% of all households, including 30.9% couples with children, 31.3% couples without children, and 9.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 27.3%, with lone person households at 25.0% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Muswellbrook Surrounds faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates of 11.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 46.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (36.1%). Educational participation is high, with 29.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 11.6% in primary, 8.9% in secondary, and 1.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.6% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 1.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Muswellbrook Surrounds found that there are 218 active transport stops operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 25 individual routes providing 534 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 140 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to the area's residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 91%, while walking accounts for 6%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.8, which is above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 15.5% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 76 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately two weekly trips per stop. A map accompanies this data, showing the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Muswellbrook Surrounds is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Muswellbrook Surrounds faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts.

Approximately 54% (~2,322 people) have private health cover, compared to 51.9% in the rest of NSW. The most common conditions are arthritis (9.7%) and asthma (8.5%). About 65.9% report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in the rest of NSW. Working-age residents have a higher-than-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. Around 18.9% (~809 people) are aged 65 and over, lower than the 23.4% in the rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges, with national rankings worse than those for the general population.

The latest Census data sees Muswellbrook Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Muswellbrook Surrounds had a cultural diversity index below average, with 90.0% of its residents being citizens, 92.2% born in Australia, and 98.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 69.1% of people, compared to 55.9% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (36.4%), English (32.6%), and Irish (8.7%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher at 4.7%, Maltese at 0.6%, and South African at 0.4%.

Muswellbrook Surrounds's median age exceeds the national pattern

Muswellbrook Surrounds' median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's median age of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 55-64 are prominent at 15.2%, while the 65-74 group is smaller at 9.9% compared to Rest of NSW. Since 2021, the 55-64 age group has grown from 14.0% to 15.2%, and the 75-84 cohort has increased from 5.7% to 6.8%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has declined from 13.6% to 11.9%, and the 45-54 group has dropped from 14.3% to 12.8%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Muswellbrook Surrounds. The 35-44 cohort is projected to grow by 25%, adding 134 residents to reach 678. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 5-14 and 15-24 cohorts.