Muswellbrook Surrounds
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Muswellbrook Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Muswellbrook Surrounds' population is approximately 4,261 as of August 2025. This figure represents an increase of 178 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 4,083. The estimated resident population in June 2024 was 4,206, with an additional 31 validated new addresses contributing to the growth. This results in a population density ratio of 1.4 persons per square kilometer. Muswellbrook Surrounds' population grew by 4.4% from the 2021 Census, outperforming the SA3 area's growth rate of 3%. Interstate migration accounted for approximately 49.5% of overall population gains in recent periods, with other factors such as overseas migration and natural growth also contributing positively.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are utilized, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Nationally, non-metropolitan areas are projected to experience above median population growth. Based on the latest population numbers, Muswellbrook Surrounds is expected to grow by 565 persons by 2041, representing a total gain of 12.0% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Muswellbrook Surrounds according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Muswellbrook Surrounds has seen approximately 19 new homes approved annually. Between financial years FY21 and FY25, around 99 homes were approved, with a further 4 approved in FY26 to date. On average, 1.4 people have moved to the area per dwelling built over these five years.

This indicates balanced supply and demand, maintaining stable market conditions. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $410,000, aligning with regional patterns. In FY26, commercial approvals totalled $988,000, suggesting a primarily residential focus. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Muswellbrook Surrounds has 70% more building activity per capita. Building activity has slowed in recent years, offering buyers greater choice.

New building activity consists of 73% detached houses and 27% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character appealing to families seeking space. This shift from the current 92% houses reflects decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles demanding diverse, affordable housing options. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 420 people, reflecting its quiet development environment. Population forecasts indicate Muswellbrook Surrounds will gain 510 residents by 2041. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Muswellbrook Surrounds has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 46 projects likely to influence this region. Notable ones include West Denman Urban Release Area, Denman Renewable Energy Park, Denman Park Estate, Denman to Sandy Hollow Pipeline and Denman Water Treatment Plant upgrade. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The employment environment in Muswellbrook Surrounds shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Muswellbrook Surrounds had a balanced workforce in June 2025 with an unemployment rate of 2.4%. It had 2,238 residents employed while the unemployment rate was 1.2% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation was high at 63.7%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Employment was concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing, mining, and education & training. Mining had a particularly strong representation with an employment share 8.2 times the regional level. Health care & social assistance employed only 6.4% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 16.9%.

Labour force decreased by 4.3% while employment declined by 4.4%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged in Muswellbrook Surrounds during the year to June 2025. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced employment decline of 0.1% and labour force growth of 0.3%. State-level data to Sep-25 showed NSW employment contracted by 0.41%, with a state unemployment rate of 4.3%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but localised projections were not provided.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

Muswellbrook Surrounds had a median income among taxpayers of $52,317 and an average income of $67,562 in the financial year 2022, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This compares with figures for Rest of NSW at $49,459 (median) and $62,998 (average). Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since the financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $57,863 (median) and $74,724 (average) as of March 2025. The 2021 Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Muswellbrook Surrounds ranked modestly, between the 49th and 50th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that 28.2% of residents (1,201 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, mirroring the surrounding region where 29.9% occupy this bracket. After housing costs, residents retain 87.5% of their income.

Muswellbrook Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Muswellbrook Surrounds had 91.9% houses and 8.1% other dwellings in the latest Census. Non-Metro NSW had 89.7% houses and 10.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Muswellbrook Surrounds was 38.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.6% and rented ones at 24.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $1,538. The median weekly rent in Muswellbrook Surrounds was $280, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $290. Nationally, mortgage repayments were lower at $1,863 and rents were substantially lower at $375.

Muswellbrook Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.7% of all households, including 30.9% couples with children, 31.3% couples without children, and 9.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 27.3%, with lone person households at 25.0% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Muswellbrook Surrounds faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has lower university qualification rates at 11.1%, significantly below the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both challenges and opportunities for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 46.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (36.1%).

Educational participation is high at 29.5%, including primary education (11.6%), secondary education (8.9%), and tertiary education (1.8%). Muswellbrook Surrounds has 4 schools with a combined enrollment of 226 students, focusing exclusively on primary education while secondary options are available in surrounding areas. Local school capacity is limited at 5.3 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.9, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows that within Muswellbrook Surrounds there are 214 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by 23 different routes, together providing a total of 232 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 148 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 33 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately one weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Muswellbrook Surrounds is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Muswellbrook Surrounds faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is approximately 53% of the total population (~2,275 people), compared to 57.5% across Rest of NSW.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (9.7%) and asthma (8.5%). A total of 65.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 65.4% figure for Rest of NSW. As of 2016, 18.7% of residents are aged 65 and over (795 people). Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The latest Census data sees Muswellbrook Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Muswellbrook Surrounds' cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 90.0% of its population being Australian citizens, 92.2% born in Australia, and 98.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, comprising 69.1%, compared to 63.9% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (36.4%), English (32.6%), and Irish (8.7%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation is higher at 4.7% than the regional average of 6.6%. Maltese and South African populations are also relatively higher, at 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, compared to regional averages of 0.2%.

Muswellbrook Surrounds hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Muswellbrook Surrounds' median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows prominence of those aged 55-64 (14.9%) and a smaller group aged 65-74 (9.7%). From 2021 onwards, the 75 to 84 age group grew from 5.7% to 6.9%, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 11.4% to 12.4%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort declined from 13.6% to 12.1%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes with the 35-44 cohort projected to grow by 30%, adding 158 residents to reach 678. Meanwhile, declines are projected for the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 cohorts.