Muswellbrook Surrounds
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Muswellbrook Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Muswellbrook Surrounds' population, as of November 2025, is approximately 4,276. This figure represents an increase of 193 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,083. The growth was inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 4,206 in June 2024 and an additional 37 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a population density of 1.4 persons per square kilometer. Muswellbrook Surrounds' growth rate of 4.7% since the 2021 Census exceeded that of its SA3 area at 3.3%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 49.5% to overall population gains, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Nationally, non-metropolitan areas are projected to have above median population growth, with Muswellbrook Surrounds expected to grow by 565 persons to 2041, resulting in a total gain of 11.6% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Muswellbrook Surrounds according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Muswellbrook Surrounds has seen approximately 19 new homes approved annually. Between FY21 and FY25, 99 homes were approved, with a further 6 approved in FY26 to date. The average population increase per dwelling built over these five years was 1.4 people.

New properties are constructed at an average value of $282,000. In FY26, $988,000 in commercial approvals have been registered. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Muswellbrook Surrounds has 70% more building activity per person. Currently, new building activity consists of 73% detached houses and 27% medium-high density housing. The existing housing stock is 92% houses.

There are estimated to be 420 people in the area per dwelling approval. Population forecasts indicate a gain of 495 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, potentially facilitating population growth beyond projections.

Muswellbrook Surrounds has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 46 such projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include West Denman Urban Release Area, Denman Renewable Energy Park, Denman Park Estate, Denman to Sandy Hollow Pipeline, and Denman Water Treatment Plant upgrade. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment environment in Muswellbrook Surrounds shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Muswellbrook Surrounds has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, strongly represented in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.4%.

As of June 2025, there are 2,238 residents employed, with an unemployment rate at 1.2% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation is high at 63.7%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Employment is concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing, mining, and education & training sectors. Mining stands out with an employment share 8.2 times the regional level.

Health care & social assistance employs just 6.4% locally, below Rest of NSW's 16.9%. Many residents may commute elsewhere for work based on Census data comparison. Between June 2024 and June 2025, labour force decreased by 4.3% and employment declined by 4.4%, while unemployment remained unchanged. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment decline of 0.1% and labour force growth of 0.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Muswellbrook Surrounds' employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 4.5% over five years and 10.6% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

Muswellbrook Surrounds' median income among taxpayers was $52,317 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $67,562 during the same period. This compares to figures for Rest of NSW's median income of $49,459 and average income of $62,998 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $58,914 (median) and $76,082 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Muswellbrook Surrounds rank modestly, between the 49th and 50th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that 28.2% of residents (1,205 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket. After housing costs, residents retain 87.5% of their income.

Muswellbrook Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Muswellbrook Surrounds, as per the latest Census, 91.9% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 8.1% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Non-Metro NSW's figures of 89.7% houses and 10.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Muswellbrook Surrounds stood at 38.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.6% and rented ones at 24.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,538. The median weekly rent in Muswellbrook Surrounds was $280, slightly lower than Non-Metro NSW's figure of $290. Nationally, mortgage repayments were lower at $1,733 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially lower at $280 versus the national figure of $375.

Muswellbrook Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 72.7% of all households, including 30.9% couples with children, 31.3% couples without children, and 9.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 27.3%, with lone person households at 25.0% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Muswellbrook Surrounds faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 11.1%, substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 8.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 1.6% and graduate diplomas at 1.0%. Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 46.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 9.9% and certificates at 36.1%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.6% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 1.8% pursuing tertiary education. Muswellbrook Surrounds' 4 schools have a combined enrollment reaching 226 students as of the last reported data. The area demonstrates varied educational conditions across Muswellbrook Surrounds. The 4 schools focus exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas from 2015 onwards. Limited local school capacity (5.3 places per 100 residents vs 15.9 regionally) means many families travel to nearby areas for schooling since 2016.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 214 active transport stops in Muswellbrook Surrounds, consisting of buses. These stops are served by 23 individual routes, offering a total of 232 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 148 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 33 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately one weekly trip per stop.

Health performance in Muswellbrook Surrounds is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Muswellbrook Surrounds faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is approximately 53% (~2,283 people), compared to 57.5% across Rest of NSW.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (9.7%) and asthma (8.5%). A total of 65.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 65.4% figure for Rest of NSW. As of a certain date, 18.7% of residents are aged 65 and over (~797 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The latest Census data sees Muswellbrook Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Muswellbrook Surrounds had a low cultural diversity, with 90.0% of its population being Australian citizens, 92.2% born in Australia, and 98.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 69.1% of people, compared to 63.9% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (36.4%), English (32.6%), and Irish (8.7%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 4.7%, Maltese at 0.6%, and South African at 0.4%.

Muswellbrook Surrounds hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Muswellbrook Surrounds' median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's average of 38 years. The age profile shows a prominent group aged 55-64 (14.9%) and a relatively smaller group aged 65-74 (9.7%) compared to Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and the present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 5.7% to 6.9%, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 11.4% to 12.4%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has declined from 13.6% to 12.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Muswellbrook Surrounds. The 35-44 age group is projected to grow by 30%, adding 156 residents to reach a total of 678. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 5-14 and 15-24 age groups.