Muswellbrook Surrounds

An assessment of population growth drivers in Muswellbrook Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Muswellbrook Surrounds' population is approximately 4,276 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 193 people from the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,083. The estimated resident population in June 2024 was 4,206, with an additional 37 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this growth. This results in a population density ratio of 1.4 persons per square kilometer. Muswellbrook Surrounds' population grew by 4.7% between the 2021 Census and November 2025, outpacing the SA3 area's growth rate of 3.3%. Interstate migration accounted for approximately 49.5% of overall population gains during recent periods, with other factors such as overseas migration and natural growth also contributing positively to the area's demographic trends.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Nationally, non-metropolitan areas are projected to experience above median population growth. Muswellbrook Surrounds is expected to grow by 565 persons to the year 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 11.6% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Muswellbrook Surrounds according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Muswellbrook Surrounds has seen approximately 19 new homes approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 99 dwellings were approved, with another 7 approved so far in FY-26. On average, about 1.4 people have moved to the area each year for every dwelling built over these five financial years.

This suggests a balanced supply and demand, maintaining stable market conditions. The average construction cost value of new properties is around $282,000, aligning with regional patterns. In FY-26, commercial approvals totaled $988,000, indicating a predominantly residential focus in the area. Compared to Rest of NSW, Muswellbrook Surrounds has seen 70.0% more building activity per person. This offers buyers greater choice but shows a recent slowdown in building activity.

The new building activity breakdown is 73.0% detached houses and 27.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's traditional low density character while introducing some diversity. The existing housing stock comprises 92.0% houses, reflecting decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles. The current estimated population per dwelling approval is around 420 people. By 2041, Muswellbrook Surrounds is forecasted to gain approximately 495 residents. Given the current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond projections.

Muswellbrook Surrounds has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 46 projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include West Denman Urban Release Area, Denman Renewable Energy Park, Denman Park Estate, Denman to Sandy Hollow Pipeline, and Denman Water Treatment Plant upgrade. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Muswellbrook Surrounds shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Muswellbrook Surrounds has a balanced workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs. The manufacturing and industrial sectors are prominent, and the unemployment rate is 2.3%.

As of September 2025, 2,238 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.5% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Muswellbrook Surrounds is 63.7%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Employment is concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing, mining, and education & training. The area has a strong specialization in mining, with an employment share 8.2 times the regional level.

Health care & social assistance employs 6.4% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 16.9%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data analysis. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force decreased by 2.8%, and employment declined by 2.5%, leading to a 0.3 percentage point fall in unemployment rate. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.5% and a labour force decline of 0.1%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Muswellbrook Surrounds' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 4.5% over five years and 10.6% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

The median income among taxpayers in Muswellbrook Surrounds SA2 was $52,317 in the financial year 2022, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. The average income stood at $67,562 during this period. These figures compare with Rest of NSW's median and average incomes of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. Based on a 12.61% growth in wages since the financial year 2022, estimated median and average incomes for Muswellbrook Surrounds SA2 as of September 2025 would be approximately $58,914 and $76,082 respectively. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Muswellbrook Surrounds ranked modestly, between the 49th and 49th percentiles. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 dominated with 28.2% of residents (1,205 people), similar to the surrounding region where 29.9% occupied this bracket. After housing costs, residents retained 87.5% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power.

Muswellbrook Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Muswellbrook Surrounds, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.9% houses and 8.1% other dwellings (including semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 89.7% houses and 10.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Muswellbrook Surrounds stood at 38.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.6% and rented dwellings at 24.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,538. The median weekly rent in Muswellbrook Surrounds was $280, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $290. Nationally, Muswellbrook Surrounds' mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Muswellbrook Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.7% of all households, including 30.9% couples with children, 31.3% couples without children, and 9.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 27.3%, consisting of 25.0% lone person households and 2.3% group households. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Muswellbrook Surrounds faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 46.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 9.9% and certificates at 36.1%. Educational participation is high, with 29.5% currently enrolled in formal education: 11.6% in primary, 8.9% in secondary, and 1.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.6% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 1.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 214 active transport stops operating within Muswellbrook Surrounds. These are a mix of bus stops serviced by 23 individual routes. Collectively, they provide 232 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 148 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 33 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately one weekly trip per stop.

Health performance in Muswellbrook Surrounds is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Muswellbrook Surrounds faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent among both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 53% (~2,283 people) of its total population has private health cover, compared to 57.5% across Rest of NSW.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (9.7%) and asthma (8.5%). About 65.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 65.4% in Rest of NSW. As of a recent report (20XX-XX-X), 18.7% (~797 people) of residents are aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

The latest Census data sees Muswellbrook Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Muswellbrook Surrounds, as per the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Data from June 2016, had a cultural diversity index below the national average. The population was predominantly Australian-born citizens, with 90.0% being citizens and 92.2% having been born in Australia. English was spoken at home by 98.1% of residents.

Christianity was the dominant religion, practiced by 69.1%, compared to 63.9% across Rest of NSW. Ancestry-wise, Australian (36.4%), English (32.6%), and Irish (8.7%) were the top three groups. Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher at 4.7% compared to 6.6% regionally; Maltese stood at 0.6%, versus 0.2%; South African residents comprised 0.4%, against a regional average of 0.2%.

Muswellbrook Surrounds's median age exceeds the national pattern

Muswellbrook Surrounds has a median age of 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's median age of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 55-64 are prominent at 14.9%, while the 65-74 group is smaller at 9.7% compared to Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 5.7% to 6.9%, and the 15-24 cohort increased from 11.4% to 12.4%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has declined from 13.6% to 12.1%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Muswellbrook Surrounds. The 35-44 age group is projected to grow by 30%, adding 156 residents to reach 678. Meanwhile, declines are projected for the 5-14 and 15-24 cohorts.