Muswellbrook Surrounds

An assessment of population growth drivers in Muswellbrook Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Muswellbrook Surrounds's population is around 4,293 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 210 people (5.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,083 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 4,206 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 39 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1.4 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Muswellbrook Surrounds's 5.1% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (3.0%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 49.5% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including overseas migration and natural growth, were positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilizes the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, an above-median population growth for non-metropolitan areas nationally is projected, with the area expected to grow by 565 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 11.1% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Muswellbrook Surrounds according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Muswellbrook Surrounds has seen around 19 new homes approved each year, with 99 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 8 so far in FY-26. With an average of 1.4 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $282,000, consistent with regional patterns. Additionally, $988,000 in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting a predominantly residential focus.

When measured against the Rest of NSW, Muswellbrook Surrounds has 70.0% more building activity (per person), offering buyers greater choice, though building activity has slowed in recent years. New building activity consists of 73.0% detached houses and 27.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 92.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. The estimated count of 420 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low-activity development environment.

Population forecasts indicate Muswellbrook Surrounds will gain 478 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Muswellbrook Surrounds has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 46 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the West Denman Urban Release Area, Denman Renewable Energy Park, Denman Park Estate, the Denman to Sandy Hollow Pipeline, and the Denman Water Treatment Plant upgrade, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Muswellbrook Surrounds shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Muswellbrook Surrounds has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented, an unemployment rate of just 2.4%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 2,248 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.5% below Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (65.4% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 15.5% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing, mining, and education & training. The area shows particularly strong specialization in mining, with an employment share of 8.2 times the regional level. In contrast, health care & social assistance employs just 6.4% of local workers, below Regional NSW's 16.9%. While local employment opportunities exist in the area, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population to local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.8% while employment declined by 0.4%, resulting in the unemployment rate falling by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Muswellbrook Surrounds. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Muswellbrook Surrounds's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 4.5% over five years and 10.6% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

The Muswellbrook Surrounds SA2's income level is higher than the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Muswellbrook Surrounds SA2's median income among taxpayers is $56,508 and the average income stands at $70,496, compared to figures for Regional NSW of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $61,515 (median) and $76,742 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Muswellbrook Surrounds, between the 49th and 49th percentiles. Income brackets indicate the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 28.2% of residents (1,210 people), mirroring the surrounding region where 29.9% occupy this bracket. After housing costs, residents retain 87.5% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power.

Muswellbrook Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Muswellbrook Surrounds, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 91.9% houses and 8.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Muswellbrook Surrounds was in line with that of Regional NSW, at 38.4%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (37.6%) or rented (24.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was in line with the Regional NSW average at $1,733, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $280, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, Muswellbrook Surrounds's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Muswellbrook Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 72.7% of all households, comprising 30.9% couples with children, 31.3% couples without children, and 9.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 27.3%, with lone person households at 25.0% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size of 2.5 people is larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Muswellbrook Surrounds faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (11.1%) substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 8.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.0%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 46.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (36.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.6% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 1.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 218 active transport stops operating within Muswellbrook Surrounds, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 25 individual routes, collectively providing 534 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 140 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 91%, with 6% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 15.5% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 76 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 2 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Muswellbrook Surrounds is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Muswellbrook Surrounds, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is fairly high at approximately 54% of the total population (~2,322 people), compared to 51.9% across Regional NSW.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 9.7% and 8.5% of residents, respectively, while 65.9% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 18.9% of residents aged 65 and over (809 people), which is lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The latest Census data sees Muswellbrook Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Muswellbrook Surrounds was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 90.0% of its population being citizens, 92.2% born in Australia, and 98.1% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Muswellbrook Surrounds is Christianity, which makes up 69.1% of people in Muswellbrook Surrounds. This compares to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Muswellbrook Surrounds are Australian, comprising 36.4% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 30.0%, English, comprising 32.6% of the population, and Irish, comprising 8.7% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal is notably overrepresented at 4.7% of Muswellbrook Surrounds (vs 4.6% regionally), Maltese at 0.6% (vs 0.4%) and South Australian at 0.4% (vs 0.2%).

Muswellbrook Surrounds's median age exceeds the national pattern

At 42 years, Muswellbrook Surrounds's median age is similar to the Regional NSW average of 43 while considerably older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows 55 - 64 year-olds are particularly prominent (15.2%), while the 65 - 74 group is comparatively smaller (9.9%) than in Regional NSW. Since 2021, the 55 to 64 age group has grown from 14.0% to 15.2% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 5.7% to 6.8%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 13.6% to 11.9% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 14.3% to 12.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Muswellbrook Surrounds. The 35 to 44 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 25%, adding 134 residents to reach 678. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 cohorts.