Cessnock

Population growth drivers in Cessnock are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Cessnock's population is around 25,113 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,618 people (6.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 23,495 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 24,311 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 1,275 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 364 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Cessnock's 6.9% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the non-metro area (5.1%) and the state, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 60.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a significant population increase in the top quartile of non-metropolitan areas nationally is forecast, with the area expected to increase by 5,947 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 20.3% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Cessnock among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Cessnock has experienced approximately 268 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 1341 homes. As of FY26142 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.6 new residents per year have arrived with each new home built between FY21 and FY25. This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction value of these homes is $269,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options. In FY26, $49.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. Cessnock's construction rates per person are similar to Rest of NSW, preserving market equilibrium with surrounding areas, and significantly above the national average, reflecting robust developer interest. New building activity comprises 70% detached houses and 30% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character while showing a notable shift from the existing housing stock (currently 86% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles. The location has approximately 81 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Cessnock is forecasted to gain 5101 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Cessnock has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly impact local performance. AreaSearch identified 12 projects potentially affecting the area. Key projects include Cessnock Hospital Redevelopment, Wollombi Road Upgrade Project, Cessnock Bypass, and Apex Park Precinct Transformation. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Cessnock face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Cessnock's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with prominent manufacturing and industrial sectors. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 8.0%.

In September 2025, 8,873 residents are employed, but the unemployment rate at 4.2% exceeds Rest of NSW's rate by 0.4 percentage points. Workforce participation in Cessnock stands at 48.4%, significantly lower than Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, accommodation & food services, and retail trade. The area specializes in mining, with an employment share 3.4 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 1% of local workers compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

Between September 2024 and September 2025, Cessnock's labour force decreased by 2.6%, with employment declining by 2.5%. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw a 0.1% labour force decline and a 0.4 percentage point unemployment rate rise. Statewide, NSW employment contracted by 0.03% between November 2024 and November 2025, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 indicate growth rates differ significantly across sectors. Applying these projections to Cessnock's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.7% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Cessnock SA2's median income among taxpayers was $47,059 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $59,024 during the same period. These figures are below those of Rest of NSW, which had median and average incomes of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest that Cessnock's median income will be approximately $52,993 and the average will be around $66,467, based on a Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Cessnock fall between the 13th and 17th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 is dominant, with 29.2% of residents (7,332 people) falling within this range, mirroring the surrounding region where 29.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Cessnock, with only 82.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 16th percentile nationally.

Cessnock is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Cessnock, as per the latest Census evaluation, 85.8% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 14.2% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is compared to Non-Metro NSW's figures of 90.9% houses and 9.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cessnock stood at 32.6%, similar to Non-Metro NSW's rate. The rest of the dwellings were either mortgaged (32.3%) or rented (35.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Cessnock was $1,517, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure in Cessnock was recorded at $320, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $340. Nationally, Cessnock's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Cessnock has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.8% of all households, including 24.6% couples with children, 24.4% couples without children, and 18.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for 31.2%, with lone person households at 28.5% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Cessnock faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 9.8%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 46.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.7%) and certificates (37.5%). Educational participation is high at 32.3%, with 12.1% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 3.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.1% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 3.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cessnock has 262 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 83 different routes that together facilitate 791 weekly passenger trips. The city's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents on average living just 154 meters from the nearest transport stop.

On average, there are 113 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately three weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Cessnock is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Cessnock faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 49% (~12,330 people) have private health cover, lower than the Rest of NSW's 51.9% and the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions, impacting 12.3% and 11.5% of residents respectively.

However, 56.3% report having no medical ailments, compared to 62.6% in Rest of NSW. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 18.8% (4,716 people), compared to the Rest of NSW's 16.9%. Senior health outcomes present challenges broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The latest Census data sees Cessnock placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cessnock, as per the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2016 data, showed a lower level of cultural diversity compared to the national average. Specifically, 86.1% of Cessnock's population were citizens, with 92.2% born in Australia and 97.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was identified as the predominant religion in Cessnock, comprising 53.8% of its population, compared to 55.7% across the Rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups based on country of birth of parents were Australian (33.4%), English (31.3%), and Scottish (9.3%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented in Cessnock at 7.3%, compared to the regional average of 6.3%. Welsh and French ancestry also had similar representation in Cessnock as in the region overall, with Welsh at 0.5% and French at 0.4%.

Cessnock's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Cessnock is 39 years, which is significantly lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 but aligns with Australia's median age of 38. Compared to Rest of NSW, Cessnock has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (14.4%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (10.4%). According to the 2021 Census, the 35-44 age group increased from 12.4% to 13.6%, while the 55-64 cohort decreased from 11.8% to 11.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Cessnock's age structure: the 25-34 group is expected to grow by 35% (an increase of 1,250 people), reaching a total of 4,857 from the current figure of 3,606. Meanwhile, the 65-74 cohort is projected to grow by a modest 6%, an increase of 167 people.