East Branxton

Population growth drivers in East Branxton are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, East Branxton's population is estimated at around 1,919, reflecting an increase of 38 people since the 2021 Census. The resident population estimate by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) was 1,788, with an additional 5 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this figure. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,760 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, East Branxton has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 4.3%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 73.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. All drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, exceptional growth is predicted over the period, placing East Branxton in the top 10 percent of Australian non-metropolitan areas. The area is expected to expand by 1,444 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 92.6% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees East Branxton recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

East Branxton saw approximately 8 new home approvals annually, with a total of 42 approved between financial years FY-21 to FY-25 and 1 in FY-26. This translates to an average of 12.7 new residents per year for each home built over the past five financial years.

The supply of new homes is significantly lagging demand, indicating heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures, with new homes being constructed at an average cost of $462,000. Compared to the rest of NSW, East Branxton has a substantially lower construction rate, 58.0% below the regional average per person. The scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. New development consists of 70.0% detached dwellings and 30.0% townhouses or apartments, providing options across different price points from family homes to more affordable compact living.

East Branxton has a population density of around 622 people per approval, indicating a mature, established area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, East Branxton is projected to grow by 1,777 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

East Branxton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No changes can significantly affect an area's performance like modifications to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. A total of zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Notable projects include AVID Waterford Community Extension - Chisholm, Huntlee New Town, Huntlee Local Water Centre 2, and Hunter Transmission Project. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

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The employment landscape in East Branxton presents a mixed picture: unemployment remains low at 3.6%, yet recent job losses have affected its comparative national standing

East Branxton has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, prominent manufacturing and industrial sectors, and an unemployment rate of 3.6% as per AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of June 2025, 1,068 residents are employed, mirroring the Rest of NSW's 3.7% unemployment rate.

The workforce participation rate is high at 71.5%. Key employment sectors include mining, healthcare & social assistance, and construction. Mining is particularly strong with an employment share 8.1 times higher than the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance employs only 12.1% of local workers, lower than Rest of NSW's 16.9%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census working population vs resident population comparison. Between June 2024 and June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 4.7%, alongside a 5.5% employment decline, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.7 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.1%, labour force expanded by 0.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to East Branxton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.4% over five years and 12.1% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 shows median income in East Branxton was $58,815 and average income was $72,390. This compares to Rest of NSW's median income of $49,459 and average income of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth rate of 12.61% from financial year ending June 2022 to September 2025, estimated median income in East Branxton would be approximately $66,232 and average income would be around $81,518 as of September 2025. According to the Census conducted in August 2021, incomes in East Branxton cluster around the 67th percentile nationally, with 35.4% (679 individuals) earning between $1,500 and $2,999 per week, similar to metropolitan regions where 29.9% fall into this earnings band. Housing costs consume 15.5% of income in East Branxton, resulting in disposable income at the 67th percentile nationally.

East Branxton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

East Branxton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 83.6% houses and 16.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Non-Metro NSW's 90.9% houses and 9.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in East Branxton was 19.9%, with the rest being mortgaged at 51.6% or rented at 28.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, aligning with Non-Metro NSW's average. The median weekly rent figure was $380, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $340. Nationally, East Branxton's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

East Branxton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.4% of all households, including 35.7% couples with children, 24.1% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 22.6%, with lone person households at 21.7% and group households comprising 1.2%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

East Branxton shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area has university qualification rates of 11.2%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.7%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 50.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (40.5%). Educational participation is high at 34.9%, comprising primary education (13.5%), secondary education (8.9%), and tertiary education (2.9%).

Schools appear to be located outside the immediate catchment area, requiring residents to access educational facilities in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of public transport in East Branxton shows 16 active transport stops currently operating. These are a mix of bus stops. They are served by 39 individual routes combined providing 270 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 160 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 38 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

East Branxton's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

East Branxton residents show positive health outcomes, with common conditions similar across age groups. Private health cover is high at 56% (around 1,065 people), compared to 51.9% in Rest of NSW.

Mental health issues and asthma are most prevalent, affecting 9.6% and 8.5% respectively. 70.2% report no medical ailments, higher than the 62.6% across Rest of NSW. 10.2% are aged 65 and over (195 people), lower than the 16.9% in Rest of NSW. Senior health outcomes are above average, better than the general population metrics.

The latest Census data sees East Branxton placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

East Branxton's population showed low cultural diversity, with 92.3% being Australian citizens, 92.7% born in Australia, and 96.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, making up 56.3%, slightly higher than the Rest of NSW's 55.7%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (32.5%), English (32.0%), and Scottish (8.1%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal people were overrepresented at 5.7% compared to the regional average of 6.3%, while Welsh (0.6%) and Maltese (0.5%) populations also exceeded their respective regional averages of 0.5% and 0.3%.

East Branxton's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

The median age in East Branxton is 32 years, notably under Rest of NSW's average of 43 and substantially under Australia's median of 38. Relative to Rest of NSW, East Branxton has a higher concentration of residents aged 25-34 (17.4%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (6.4%). Between the 2016 Census on 9 August 2016 and the 2021 Census on 10 August 2021, the population aged 35 to 44 grew from 15.9% to 17.0%. Conversely, the population aged 45 to 54 declined from 11.7% to 10.2%, and the population aged 65 to 74 dropped from 7.7% to 6.4%. By 2041, East Branxton's age composition is expected to see notable shifts. Leading this demographic shift, the population aged 25 to 34 is projected to grow by 103%, reaching 678 people from 333.