East Branxton

Population growth drivers in East Branxton are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch's validation of new addresses, the East Branxton statistical area (Lv2) had an estimated population of around 2,035 as of Nov 2025. This reflects a growth of 154 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,881. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of resident population at 1,877 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of five new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,867 persons per square kilometer, higher than the national average according to AreaSearch's assessments. East Branxton's population growth rate of 8.2% since the 2021 Census exceeded both the non-metro area (5.7%) and state averages, indicating it as a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 73.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with other factors like natural growth and overseas migration also being positive contributors.

AreaSearch's projections for each SA2 area are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year, while NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a 2021 base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, the East Branxton (SA2) is projected to experience exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of Australian non-metropolitan areas, with an expected increase of 1,403 persons by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 79.6% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees East Branxton among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates East Branxton has seen around 10 new homes approved each year. Approximately 50 homes have been approved over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, with an additional six approved so far in FY-26. On average, this results in about 10.7 new residents per year for every home built during these years.

This supply is significantly lagging demand, which generally implies heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost value of $462,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, commercial approvals valued at $1.2 million have been registered, indicating a predominantly residential focus in East Branxton. Compared to the rest of NSW, East Branxton has significantly less development activity, being 51.0% below the regional average per person.

This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. New development consists of 83.0% detached dwellings and 17.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. East Branxton reflects a developing area with around 174 people per approval. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, East Branxton is expected to grow by approximately 1,620 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

East Branxton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No infrastructure changes or major projects are known to affect this area currently. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could potentially impact it. Notable initiatives include AVID Waterford Community Extension - Chisholm, Huntlee New Town, Huntlee Local Water Centre 2, and Anvil Creek Urban Release Area.

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The labour market in East Branxton demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

East Branxton has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, notably in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate is 3.4%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, there are 1,128 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.4% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is high at 71.5%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. The dominant employment sectors include mining, health care & social assistance, and construction. Mining has a particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 8.1 times the regional average.

Health care & social assistance has limited presence at 12.1% compared to the regional average of 16.9%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. Between August 2024 and September 2025, labour force decreased by 2.3%, employment declined by 2.5%, leading to a rise in unemployment of 0.2 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.5%, labour force contracted by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data as of 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to East Branxton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.4% over five years and 12.1% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of East Branxton had a median taxpayer income of $58,815 and an average income of $72,390 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This was above the national average, contrasting with the Rest of NSW's median income of $52,390 and average income of $65,215 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since the financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $64,026 (median) and $78,804 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census data, household, family and personal incomes in East Branxton clustered around the 67th percentile nationally. The distribution showed that 35.4% of locals (720 people) fell into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, mirroring the surrounding region where 29.9% occupied this bracket. High housing costs consumed 15.5% of income, but strong earnings still placed disposable income at the 67th percentile.

East Branxton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in East Branxton, as per the latest Census, consisted of 83.6% houses and 16.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 90.9% houses and 9.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in East Branxton stood at 19.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 51.6% and rented dwellings at 28.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, aligning with Non-Metro NSW's average, while the median weekly rent was $380, compared to Non-Metro NSW's averages of $1,733 and $340 respectively. Nationally, East Branxton's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents exceeding the national figure of $375.

East Branxton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.4% of all households, including 35.7% couples with children, 24.1% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 22.6%, with lone person households at 21.7% and group households comprising 1.2%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

East Branxton shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 11.2%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.7%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 50.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (40.5%). Educational participation is high at 34.9%, with 13.5% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 34.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.5% in primary education, 8.9% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

East Branxton has 18 active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 39 different routes combined, offering a total of 254 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is considered excellent, with residents typically residing just 160 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 36 trips per day across all routes, which amounts to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

East Branxton's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

East Branxton residents have a relatively positive health status with common conditions similar across age groups.

Private health cover is high at approximately 56% (about 1,130 people). The most prevalent medical issues are mental health problems and asthma, affecting 9.6% and 8.5% of residents respectively. Around 70.2% report no medical ailments, higher than the Rest of NSW's 62.6%. As of 207 people or 10.2%, East Branxton has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over compared to the Rest of NSW at 16.9%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in East Branxton are above average, outperforming the general population on health metrics.

The latest Census data sees East Branxton placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

East Branxton's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 92.3% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (92.7%), and speaking English only at home (96.1%). Christianity is the dominant religion in East Branxton, comprising 56.3% of people, compared to 55.7% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (32.5%), English (32.0%), and Scottish (8.1%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginals are overrepresented at 5.7%, Welsh at 0.6%, and Maltese at 0.5%, compared to regional averages of 6.3%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively.

East Branxton's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

The median age in East Branxton is 32 years, which is notably lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 and substantially under Australia's median of 38. Relative to Rest of NSW, East Branxton has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (17.3%) but fewer individuals aged 65-74 (6.4%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 35-44 has grown from 15.9% to 17.0%. Conversely, the proportion of those aged 45-54 has declined from 11.7% to 10.3%, and the percentage of individuals aged 65-74 has dropped from 7.7% to 6.4%. By 2041, East Branxton is expected to experience notable shifts in its age composition, with the 25-34 group projected to grow by 89%, reaching 666 people from the current 352.