Aberdare

An assessment of population growth drivers in Aberdare reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Aberdare is around 2,580. This reflects an increase of 38 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,542. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 2,500 based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 9 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 781 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Aberdare has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.0%, outpacing the Rest of NSW. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 60.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

For future projections, AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 623 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 25.2% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Aberdare according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Aberdare shows around 9 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 49 homes were approved, with another 3 so far in FY-26. On average, 1.6 people moved to the area annually for each dwelling built during these years.

This suggests a balanced supply and demand, maintaining stable market conditions. The average construction cost value of new homes is $343,000. In FY-26, $2.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting Aberdare's primarily residential nature. Compared to the rest of NSW, Aberdare has significantly less development activity, 64.0% below the regional average per person.

This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties, although recent periods have seen an increase in development activity. New building activity comprises 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving Aberdare's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers with its emphasis on detached housing. With around 216 people per dwelling approval, Aberdare exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects Aberdare to gain 650 residents by 2041. If current development rates persist, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Aberdare has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified six projects likely to influence this region. Notable ones include Cessnock Hospital Redevelopment, North Ridge Estate, Wollombi Road Upgrade Project, and Mount View Grange Estate. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Aberdare face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Aberdare's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominent. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate was 9.3%. In Aberdare, 1,031 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate 5.5% higher than Rest of NSW's 3.8%.

Workforce participation was lower at 56.8%, compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. A low 11.7% of residents worked from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment concentrations were in health care & social assistance, accommodation & food services, and retail trade. Notably, mining employed 3.0 times the regional average, while agriculture, forestry & fishing was at 0.5%.

The area may offer limited local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and August 2025, labour force decreased by 2.9% and employment by 2.6%, leading to a slight unemployment rate drop of 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.5%, labour force fall by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Aberdare's industry mix suggests local employment could increase by 5.9% in five years and 12.8% in ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released in financial year 2023, Aberdare had a median taxpayer income of $49,292 and an average income of $61,825. These figures are below the national averages of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively for Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated median and average incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $53,659 and $67,303 respectively. The 2021 Census shows household, family, and personal incomes in Aberdare at the 17th percentile nationally. Income distribution data indicates that 29.0% of Aberdare's population falls within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to regional levels at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Aberdare, with only 82.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 16th percentile nationally.

Aberdare is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Aberdare, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 80.1% houses and 19.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Aberdare was at 30.2%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (34.5%) or rented (35.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Aberdare was $1,421, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure for Aberdare was recorded at $303, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Aberdare's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Aberdare features high concentrations of lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.2% of all households, including 25.3% couples with children, 22.2% couples without children, and 18.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.8%, with lone person households at 30.3% and group households comprising 2.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Aberdare faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 6.6%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 4.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.0%) and graduate diplomas (0.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (7.6%) and certificates (36.0%). Educational participation is high at 27.5%, comprising primary education (10.1%), secondary education (7.6%), and tertiary education (2.8%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 2.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Aberdare has 39 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 32 different routes that together facilitate 158 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 130 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Aberdare being primarily residential. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 96%, with an average vehicle ownership of 1.4 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, only 11.7% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 22 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 4 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Aberdare is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

AreaSearch's assessment highlights significant health challenges across Aberdare.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are critical issues affecting both younger and older age cohorts, with a range of health conditions having marked impacts. Private health cover is relatively low, with approximately 51% of the total population (~1,326 people) having it. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 12.6 and 11.2% of residents respectively. Conversely, 56.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Rest of NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Aberdare has 15.2% of residents aged 65 and over (392 people), which is lower than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The latest Census data sees Aberdare placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Aberdare had a cultural diversity score below average, with 94.0% of its population born in Australia and 94.0% being citizens. The majority spoke English only at home, at 97.2%. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 51.0% of Aberdare's population, compared to 55.9% across Rest of NSW.

In terms of ancestry, Australian parents comprised 34.0%, English 31.7%, and Scottish 9.4%. Notably, Australian Aboriginal people were overrepresented at 7.7% in Aberdare (vs regional 4.6%), as were Russians at 0.4% (vs 0.2%) and Lebanese at 0.3% (vs 0.2%).

Aberdare's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Aberdare is 36 years, which is significantly below Rest of NSW's average of 43 years and somewhat younger than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 25-34 age group constitutes 15.3% of Aberdare's population compared to the Rest of NSW figure. Meanwhile, the 65-74 cohort makes up 9.5%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 11.2% to 12.7%, while the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 12.5% to 11.6%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Aberdare. Notably, the 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 38%, adding 151 people to reach a total of 546 from the current figure of 394.