Aberdare

An assessment of population growth drivers in Aberdare reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, Aberdare's estimated population is around 2,573. This reflects an increase of 31 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,542. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 2,500 residents following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of nine new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 779 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Aberdare has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.0%, outpacing non-metro areas. Interstate migration contributed approximately 60.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year are utilised. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Aberdare is expected to grow by 614 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 25.1% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Aberdare according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Aberdare has recorded approximately 9 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past 5 financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 49 homes were approved, with a further 3 approved so far in FY-26. On average, about 1.6 people have moved to the area for each dwelling built over these years.

This suggests a balanced supply and demand creating stable market conditions, with new homes being constructed at an average expected cost of $343,000. In FY-26, $2.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating Aberdare's primarily residential nature. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Aberdare has significantly less development activity, 64.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new construction often reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties, although there has been an increase in development activity recently.

Of the new building activity, approximately 75.0% are detached houses and 25.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining Aberdare's low density character with a focus on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 216 people per dwelling approval, Aberdare exhibits characteristics of a low density area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Aberdare is forecasted to gain 647 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Aberdare has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified six projects that may impact the area. Key projects are Cessnock Hospital Redevelopment, North Ridge Estate, Wollombi Road Upgrade Project, and Mount View Grange Estate. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Aberdare face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Aberdare has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, particularly in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 9.3% as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, 1,025 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 5.5% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation was similar to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Employment was concentrated in health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade. Notably, mining employment was at 3.0 times the regional average while agriculture, forestry & fishing employed only 0.5% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census working population vs resident population data. In a 12-month period ending in September 2025, labour force decreased by 2.8% and employment decreased by 2.5%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.3 percentage points. This contrasted with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.5%, labour force fell by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data as of 25-Nov-25 showed NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia projected national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 12.8% over ten years. Applying these projections to Aberdare's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Aberdare had a median taxpayer income of $49,292 and an average of $61,825. This is below the national averages of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively in Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 are approximately $53,659 (median) and $67,303 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Aberdare's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 17th and 17th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 29.0% of residents earning between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to regional levels at 29.9%. Housing affordability is severe with only 82.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 16th percentile nationally.

Aberdare is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Aberdare, as per the latest Census, 80.1% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 19.9% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Non-Metro NSW's 90.9% houses and 9.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Aberdare stood at 30.2%, with mortgaged properties at 34.5% and rented ones at 35.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,421, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Aberdare was $303, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $340. Nationally, Aberdare's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,421 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Aberdare features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 67.2% of all households, including 25.3% couples with children, 22.2% couples without children, and 18.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.8%, with lone person households at 30.3% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6 people.

Aberdare faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 6.6%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common among those with university qualifications, at 4.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1%) and graduate diplomas (0.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.6% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications; advanced diplomas account for 7.6% while certificates make up 36%. Educational participation is high, with 27.5% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.1% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 2.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 39 active public transport stops in Aberdare. These are served by a mix of buses operating along 32 routes, offering 158 weekly passenger trips combined. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 130 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 22 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately four weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Aberdare is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Aberdare faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 51% (~1,322 people) have private health cover, lower than the 53.7% across Rest of NSW.

Mental health issues impact 12.6% of residents, while arthritis affects 11.2%. About 56.7% report no medical ailments, compared to 62.6% in Rest of NSW. The area has 15.3% (393 people) aged 65 and over, lower than the 16.9% in Rest of NSW. Senior health outcomes present challenges broadly similar to those of the general population.

The latest Census data sees Aberdare placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Aberdare's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 94.0% of its population born in Australia and 94.0% being citizens. Furthermore, 97.2% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion in Aberdare, comprising 51.0% of people, compared to 55.7% across Rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (34.0%), English (31.7%), and Scottish (9.4%). Notably, Australian Aboriginals were overrepresented at 7.7%, compared to the regional average of 6.3%. Additionally, Russian and Lebanese ethnicities showed higher representation in Aberdare than regionally: Russians at 0.4% versus 0.1%, and Lebanese at 0.3% versus 0.1%.

Aberdare's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Aberdare is 36 years, which is significantly below Rest of NSW's average of 43 years and somewhat younger than Australia's average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group makes up 14.9% of Aberdare's population, compared to the Rest of NSW. The 65-74 cohort is less prevalent in Aberdare at 9.5%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 11.2% to 12.5% of the population, while the 85+ cohort has declined from 1.2% to 0.5%. Population forecasts for Aberdare indicate substantial demographic changes by 2041. The 25 to 34 age group is expected to grow by 41%, increasing from 383 people in 2021 to 541 people by 2041, leading the demographic shift.