Aberdare

An assessment of population growth drivers in Aberdare reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Aberdare's estimated population is around 2,474, reflecting a decrease of 68 people from the 2021 Census figure of 2,542. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 2,398 as of June 2024, which was derived from examining the latest ERP data release by the ABS and validating an additional 9 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 749 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Aberdare has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.0%, outperforming non-metro areas. Interstate migration contributed approximately 60.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. For population projections until 2041, AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for covered SA2 areas, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for uncovered areas.

Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate a significant increase, with Aberdare expected to grow by 617 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 30.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Aberdare, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Aberdare recorded approximately 8 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 42 homes were approved, with an additional 2 approved so far in FY-26. This results in an average of 1.8 people moving to the area per dwelling built over these years. However, this figure has intensified to 5.1 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing popularity and potential undersupply.

New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $343,000, which is below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing choices for buyers. Commercial approvals registered this financial year totalled $927,000, reflecting minimal commercial development activity in the area compared to the rest of NSW (69.0% below regional average per person). Aberdare's constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties, which is also lower than nationally, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 64.0% detached dwellings and 36.0% medium and high-density housing, offering choices across price ranges from spacious family homes to more compact options. This represents a shift from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 80.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. The estimated population per dwelling approval in Aberdare is 648 people, reflecting its quiet development environment.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Aberdare is expected to grow by 749 residents through to 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth in the area.

Aberdare has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified six projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include the Cessnock Hospital Redevelopment, North Ridge Estate, Wollombi Road Upgrade Project, and Cessnock Bypass. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Aberdare face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Aberdare has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, particularly in manufacturing and industrial sectors. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 9.8%.

This is 6.1% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation is similar to Rest of NSW at 56.4%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade. Aberdare specializes in mining with an employment share three times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 0.5% compared to 5.3% regionally.

Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data comparison of working population vs resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, Aberdare's labour force decreased by 4.7%, while employment declined by 6.3%, resulting in a 1.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.1%, labour force expanded by 0.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Aberdare's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not consider localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Aberdare's median income among taxpayers was $49,292 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $61,825 during the same period. These figures are lower than those for Rest of NSW, which were $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated median income as of September 2025 is approximately $55,508, while the average is projected to be around $69,621. Census data indicates that household, family and personal incomes in Aberdare all fall between the 17th and 17th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 dominates Aberdare with 29.0% of residents (717 people), which is similar to the surrounding region where 29.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Aberdare, with only 82.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 16th percentile nationally.

Aberdare is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Aberdare, as per the latest Census evaluation, houses accounted for 80.1% of dwellings, with the remaining 19.9% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. In contrast, Non-Metro NSW had 90.9% houses and 9.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Aberdare stood at 30.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.5% and rented ones at 35.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,421, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Aberdare was $303, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $340. Nationally, Aberdare's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,421 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Aberdare features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households are the majority, accounting for 67.2% of all households in the area. They consist of three main types: couples with children at 25.3%, couples without children at 22.2%, and single parent families at 18.0%. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.8%. Lone person households are the largest portion of non-family households, comprising 30.3% of total households. Group households constitute the remaining 2.6%. The median household size in this area is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6 people.

Aberdare faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 6.6%, substantially below NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 4.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.0%) and graduate diplomas (0.7%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 43.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 7.6% and certificates at 36.0%. Educational participation is high at 27.5%, including 10.1% in primary, 7.6% in secondary, and 2.8% in tertiary education.

Cessnock High School and Cessnock Public School serve a total of 912 students. The area's ICSEA score is 885, indicating varied educational conditions. There is one primary and one secondary institution providing education. The area functions as an education hub with 36.9 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 13.0, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of public transport in Aberdare shows that there are 38 active transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 32 individual routes providing service. Together, these routes facilitate 161 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 130 meters from the nearest transport stop. On average, there are 23 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately four weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Aberdare is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Aberdare faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents.

Private health cover stands at approximately 51%, slightly below the average for SA2 areas (~1,271 people). Mental health issues are the most prevalent condition, impacting 12.6% of residents, followed by arthritis at 11.2%. Conversely, 56.7% report no medical ailments, compared to 62.6% in Rest of NSW. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 15.2% (376 people), compared to 16.9% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

The latest Census data sees Aberdare placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Aberdare's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 94.0% of its population born in Australia and 94.0% being citizens. The majority spoke English only at home, at 97.2%. Christianity was the main religion, making up 51.0% of Aberdare's population, compared to 55.7% across Rest of NSW.

In terms of ancestry, Australian was the top group at 34.0%, followed by English at 31.7% and Scottish at 9.4%. Notably, Australian Aboriginal were overrepresented in Aberdare at 7.7%, compared to 6.3% regionally. Russian and Lebanese groups also had higher representations than average: Russian at 0.4% (vs regional 0.1%) and Lebanese at 0.3% (vs regional 0.1%).

Aberdare's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Aberdare is 36 years, which is significantly below Rest of NSW's average of 43 years and somewhat younger than Australia's average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group comprises 14.9% of Aberdare's population, compared to the Rest of NSW figure. Meanwhile, the 65-74 cohort makes up 9.4%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 35-44 age group has increased from 11.2% to 12.5% of Aberdare's population. Conversely, the 85+ cohort has declined from 1.2% to 0.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Aberdare, with the 25-34 age group projected to grow by 48%, reaching 544 people from its current figure of 368.