Cessnock

Population growth drivers in Cessnock are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis of ABS population updates and new addresses validated since the 2021 Census, the Cessnock statistical area (Lv2) had an estimated resident population of 16,709 as of June 2024. This reflected an increase of 499 people from the 2021 Census figure of 16,300, inferred from the latest ERP data release by the ABS. By November 2025, the population was estimated at around 17,063, indicating a further increase of 763 people (4.7%) since the 2021 Census. This level of population resulted in a density ratio of 475 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, ending in June 2024, Cessnock demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.1%, outpacing the non-metro area. Interstate migration contributed approximately 60.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a 2021 base year are used. Considering these projections, a significant population increase is forecast for Cessnock (SA2), with an expected growth of 4,189 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 23.4% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Cessnock among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Cessnock has experienced around 122 dwellings receiving development approval per year. An estimated 611 homes were approved over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, with 73 so far in FY-26. On average, 0.9 new residents arrive per new home constructed over these five years.

New construction is matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options while enabling population growth that could exceed current expectations. The average value of new properties being constructed is $343,000. In FY-26, $28.4 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating high levels of local commercial activity.

Compared to Rest of NSW, Cessnock shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person and places among the 81st percentile of areas assessed nationally. New building activity comprises 71.0% detached houses and 29.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 131 people per dwelling approval, Cessnock shows characteristics of a low density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Cessnock is forecasted to gain 3,987 residents through to 2041. Development is keeping reasonable pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Cessnock has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Cessnock Hospital Redevelopment, Wollombi Road Upgrade Project, Apex Park Precinct Transformation, and North Ridge Estate. The following details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Cessnock face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Cessnock's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs. Manufacturing and industrial sectors are prominent.

As of September 2025, the unemployment rate was 8.3%, based on AreaSearch data aggregation. There were 5,818 employed residents, with an unemployment rate 4.5% higher than Rest of NSW's 3.8%. Workforce participation lagged at 43.7%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade.

Mining had notable concentration with employment levels at 3.1 times the regional average, while agriculture, forestry & fishing showed lower representation at 1.1% versus the regional average of 5.3%. Local employment opportunities appeared limited based on Census working population vs resident population comparison. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 2.6%, and employment declined by 2.6%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. This contrasted with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.5%, labour force fell by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 showed NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National unemployment was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cessnock's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though this was a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and did not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Cessnock's income level is lower than average nationally according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Cessnock is $45,287 and the average income stands at $56,802. These figures compare to Rest of NSW's median income of $52,390 and average income of $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Cessnock would be approximately $49,299 (median) and $61,835 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Cessnock fall between the 10th and 12th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income distribution shows that 28.3% of locals (4,828 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, mirroring the broader area where 29.9% fall into this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Cessnock, with only 81.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally.

Cessnock is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Cessnock, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 84.3% houses and 15.7% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Non-Metro NSW's 90.9% houses and 9.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cessnock stood at 32.0%, similar to Non-Metro NSW, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.8% and rented dwellings at 39.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,499, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $320, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $340. Nationally, Cessnock's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Cessnock features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.8% of all households, including 21.9% couples with children, 24.5% couples without children, and 19.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.2%, with lone person households at 30.5% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 2.4 people, smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Cessnock faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates of 10.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This indicates a need for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 7.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 46.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.8%) and certificates (37.6%).

Educational participation is high, with 34.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.9% in primary education, 9.7% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The public transport analysis indicates that there are 165 active transport stops operating within Cessnock. These stops service a mix of buses, with a total of 78 individual routes providing 703 weekly passenger trips collectively. The accessibility to these services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located approximately 155 meters from the nearest transport stop.

On average, there are 100 trips per day across all routes, equating to roughly four weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Cessnock is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Cessnock faces significant health challenges, affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 49% (~8,435 people) have private health cover, lower than Rest of NSW's 53.7%. Nationally, this figure is 55.7%.

Mental health issues impact 12.7%, while arthritis affects 11.9% of Cessnock residents. Conversely, 54.3% report no medical ailments, compared to 62.6% in Rest of NSW. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 20.4% (3,480 people), compared to Rest of NSW's 16.9%. Health outcomes among seniors align with the general population's profile.

The latest Census data sees Cessnock placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cessnock's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 82.5% of its population being Australian citizens, 91.4% born in Australia, and 96.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Cessnock, comprising 54.2% of its population, compared to 55.7% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (32.8%), English (31.5%), and Scottish (9.3%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 7.3%, Welsh remained the same at 0.5%, and Samoan was also consistent at 0.1%.

Cessnock's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Cessnock is 40, which is slightly below Rest of NSW's average of 43 but above Australia's median of 38. In comparison to Rest of NSW, the 25-34 cohort is notably higher at 14.6% locally while the 55-64 age group is lower at 10.7%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the 35-44 age group has increased from 12.7% to 13.8%, while the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 11.4% to 10.7%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Cessnock. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 928 people (37%) from 2,491 to 3,420, while the 65-74 group is expected to grow more modestly at 9%, adding only 159 residents.