Cessnock

Cessnock lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of Cessnock is around 16,954. This reflects a 4% increase since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,300. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 16,432 following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and an additional 499 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 472 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Cessnock has shown resilient growth with a compound annual growth rate of 1.1%, outperforming non-metro areas. Interstate migration contributed approximately 60% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area as released in 2024, using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a 2021 base year are used. Considering projected demographic shifts, Cessnock is forecast to experience significant population growth, increasing by 4,196 persons by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 24.2% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Cessnock among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Cessnock experienced around 119 dwelling approvals per year, with 599 approved between FY-21 and FY-25, and 48 so far in FY-26. Approximately one new resident arrived per new home over the past five financial years. New construction is meeting or exceeding demand, offering more housing options and enabling population growth.

The average construction value was $343,000, lower than regional levels. In FY-26, $17.9 million in commercial approvals were registered. Compared to Rest of NSW, Cessnock shows 69% of the construction activity per person, placing it among the 82nd percentile nationally.

New building activity consists of 72.0% standalone homes and 28.0% townhouses or apartments. Cessnock reflects a low density area with around 125 people per approval. By 2041, Cessnock is projected to grow by 4,103 residents. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, but buyers may face increased competition as the population grows.

Cessnock has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Eleven projects, as identified by AreaSearch, are expected to impact the area significantly. These include Cessnock Hospital Redevelopment, Wollombi Road Upgrade Project, Cessnock Bypass, and Apex Park Precinct Transformation. The following list provides details on those projects deemed most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Cessnock face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Cessnock has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Manufacturing and industrial sectors are prominent.

The unemployment rate is 8.6%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of June 2025, 5764 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 4.9% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Cessnock lags behind at 43.7%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, accommodation & food services, and retail trade.

Mining employs a notably high proportion of workers, at 3.1 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 1.1% of local workers, lower than Rest of NSW's 5.3%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population figures. Between June 2024 and June 2025, labour force decreased by 4.2% while employment declined by 5.4%, leading to a 1.2 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.1% and labour force growth of 0.3%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment rate over the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 provide insights into potential future demand within Cessnock. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% and 13.7% respectively. Applying these industry-specific projections to Cessnock's employment mix indicates local employment could increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.7% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Cessnock had a median taxpayer income of $45,287 and an average income of $56,802. These figures are below the national averages of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively for Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated median income in Cessnock as of September 2025 is approximately $50,998, with average income estimated at $63,965. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Cessnock fall between the 10th and 12th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. In Cessnock, 28.3% of locals (4,797 people) have incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999, similar to regional levels at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Cessnock, with only 81.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally.

Cessnock is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Cessnock, as per the latest Census evaluation, 84.3% of dwellings were houses while 15.7% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Non-Metro NSW's figures of 90.9% houses and 9.0% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Cessnock was 32.0%, similar to Non-Metro NSW's figure. Mortgaged dwellings constituted 28.8%, while rented dwellings made up 39.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,499, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733 and significantly below the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure in Cessnock was recorded at $320, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $340 and substantially below the national figure of $375.

Cessnock features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.8% of all households, including 21.9% couples with children, 24.5% couples without children, and 19.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.2%, with lone person households at 30.5% and group households comprising 2.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Cessnock faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate stands at 10.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This discrepancy presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 7.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 46.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (8.8%) and certificates (37.6%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 34.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 12.9% in primary, 9.7% in secondary, and 3.1% in tertiary education. Cessnock's four schools have a combined enrollment of 1,838 students. The area's educational conditions vary (ICSEA: 907). Education provision is balanced with three primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cessnock has 141 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 73 different routes that together facilitate 711 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from a resident's location to the nearest transport stop is 160 meters, indicating excellent accessibility.

On average, there are 101 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately five weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Cessnock is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Cessnock faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 49% (~8,382 people) have private health cover, lower than Rest of NSW's 51.9% and the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and arthritis are most common, affecting 12.7% and 11.9% respectively, while 54.3% report no medical ailments, compared to 62.6% in Rest of NSW.

The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 20.4% (3,458 people), compared to Rest of NSW's 16.9%. Seniors' health outcomes present challenges broadly aligned with the general population's profile.

The latest Census data sees Cessnock placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cessnock's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 82.5% of its population being Australian citizens, 91.4% born in Australia, and 96.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Cessnock, comprising 54.2% of people, compared to 55.7% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (32.8%), English (31.5%), and Scottish (9.3%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher at 7.3% in Cessnock versus 6.3% regionally, while Welsh and Samoan representations remained similar at 0.5% and 0.1%, respectively.

Cessnock's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Cessnock is 40 years, which is slightly below the Rest of NSW average of 43 but above the Australian median of 38. In comparison with the Rest of NSW average, the 25-34 age cohort is notably over-represented at 14.6% in Cessnock, while the 55-64 age group is under-represented at 10.7%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 12.7% to 13.8% of Cessnock's population, while the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 11.4% to 10.7%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Cessnock. The 25-34 age group is projected to expand by 944 people (38%) from 2,475 to 3,420 residents, while the 65-74 age group is expected to grow more modestly at 9%, adding only 171 residents.