Dover Heights
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Dover Heights reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Dover Heights' population is approximately 11,503 as of Aug 2025. This figure represents an increase of 381 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 11,122. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 11,433 in June 2024 and 88 new addresses validated since the Census date. This results in a population density of 6,151 persons per square kilometer, placing Dover Heights among the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Dover Heights has exhibited steady growth with a compound annual growth rate of 0.1%, outperforming its SA3 region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 69.5% to recent population gains in the area.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024, based on 2022 data, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate an increase just below the national median statistical area average, with Dover Heights expected to grow by 623 persons to 2041, representing a total increase of 4.8% over 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Dover Heights according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Over the past 5 financial years from July 2016 to June 2021, Dover Heights has seen approximately 46 dwellings receiving development approval each year, totalling 232 homes. As of FY-26 (July 2021 to June 2022), 7 approvals have been recorded. The population in Dover Heights has declined recently, but new supply has likely kept pace with demand, offering good choice to buyers. Developments are averaging an expected construction cost value of $1,664,000 per dwelling, indicating that developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This financial year, there have been $585,000 in commercial approvals, demonstrating Dover Heights' residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Dover Heights shows moderately higher construction activity, being 40.0% above the regional average per person over the 5-year period from July 2016 to June 2021. This has preserved reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. However, building activity has slowed in recent years.

Recent construction comprises approximately 21.0% detached houses and 79.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a trend towards denser development that provides accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. Dover Heights shows a developed market with around 391 people per dwelling approval. Population forecasts indicate Dover Heights will gain approximately 553 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Dover Heights has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 29 projects that could affect this region. Notable ones are Refresh Vaucluse Diamond Bay - Wastewater Infrastructure, OSHR at Vaucluse - Seniors Living Development, Kew Hillcrest Rose Bay, and Kincoppal-Rose Bay School Campus Masterplan. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Dover Heights shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Dover Heights has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 3.0% and it saw an estimated employment growth of 2.5% over the past year.

As of June 2025, 6833 residents are employed with an unemployment rate of 1.2% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Dover Heights is 65.4%, higher than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading employment industries include professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and finance & insurance. The area shows a strong specialization in professional & technical services with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level, while transport, postal & warehousing employs only 2.2% of local workers compared to Greater Sydney's 5.3%.

Analysis of SALM and ABS data for the 12-month period ending June 2025 shows employment increasing by 2.5% alongside labour force growth of 2.4%, causing a fall in unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6%, labour force growth of 2.9%, and an increase in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Dover Heights' employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.6% over five years and 15.0% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Dover Heights' median taxpayer income was $78,447, with an average of $210,821 in financial year 2022. This is among the top percentile nationally, compared to Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. As of September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $88,339 (median) and $237,406 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes all rank highly in Dover Heights, between the 95th and 96th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that the largest segment comprises 36.6% earning $4000+ weekly (4,210 residents), differing from the broader area where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 30.9%. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 48.1% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. High housing costs consume 18.4% of income, yet strong earnings still place disposable income at the 94th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Dover Heights features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dover Heights' dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 34.4% houses and 65.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). In comparison, Sydney metropolitan area had 18.3% houses and 81.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Dover Heights was higher at 31.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.3% and rented ones at 35.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,788, above Sydney metro's average of $3,600. Median weekly rent in Dover Heights was $650, compared to Sydney metro's $670. Nationally, Dover Heights' mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents substantially exceeded the national figure of $375.

Dover Heights has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 71.5 percent of all households, including 36.1 percent couples with children, 25.1 percent couples without children, and 9.4 percent single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 28.5 percent, with lone person households at 25.2 percent and group households making up 3.4 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.3.

Dover Heights shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Dover Heights is notably higher than broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15 and above, 54.0% possess university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.2% in NSW. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 37.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.6%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational pathways account for 21.1% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 11.3% and certificates at 9.8%.

Educational participation is high, with 32.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 6.9% pursuing tertiary education. The area has educational provision including Kesser Torah College and Rose Bay Secondary College, serving a total of 1,679 students. It demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions, with an ICSEA score of 1092. The educational mix consists of one secondary school and one K-12 school.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Dover Heights has 48 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 34 different routes that together facilitate 1,528 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located 129 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 218 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 31 weekly trips per individual stop.

Dover Heights's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results in Dover Heights, with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 94% of the total population (10,801 people), compared to 89.7% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 5.2% and 5.1% of residents respectively.

A total of 79.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 77.6% across Greater Sydney. Dover Heights has 16.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,930 people). Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Dover Heights is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Dover Heights has a notable cultural diversity, with 23.5% of its population speaking a language other than English at home as of the latest data. This figure is higher compared to the regional average. Additionally, 44.6% of Dover Heights' residents were born overseas, which is also higher than the Greater Sydney average.

The predominant religion in Dover Heights is Judaism, with 44.1% of people identifying with this faith, significantly higher than the 16.0% regional average. In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups are Other (21.7%), English (17.8%), and Australian (14.9%). The 'Other' category is substantially higher in Dover Heights compared to the regional average of 14.4%. Meanwhile, the representation of English ancestry is notably lower than the regional average of 23.9%. There are also notable divergences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: South African (8.1% vs regional 2.4%), Russian (3.2% vs regional 1.6%), and Polish (2.9% vs regional 1.9%).

Dover Heights's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Dover Heights is 39 years, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and close to Australia's national average of 38 years. Comparing with Greater Sydney, the cohort aged 45-54 is notably over-represented at 14.7% locally while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 11.8%. Post-Census data from 2021 shows that the population of those aged 15-24 has grown from 11.3% to 14.1%, and the cohort aged 75-84 has increased from 4.9% to 6.0%. Conversely, the age group 5-14 has declined from 13.8% to 12.4%. By 2041, demographic forecasts indicate substantial changes for Dover Heights. Notably, the population aged 85 and above is projected to grow by 113%, reaching 541 people from 254. This growth is led by demographic aging as residents aged 65 and older represent 66% of anticipated growth. Meanwhile, the cohorts aged 25-34 and 0-4 are expected to experience population declines.