Dover Heights

An assessment of population growth drivers in Dover Heights reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Dover Heights' population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, is approximately 11,513 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 391 individuals, a rise of 3.5%, since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 11,122. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,433 in June 2024 and an additional 92 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 6,156 persons per square kilometer, placing Dover Heights within the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch, indicating high demand for land in the area. Over the past decade, Dover Heights has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.1%, outperforming its SA3 region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 69.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to population projections, Dover Heights is expected to experience a population increase just below the national median statistical area average by 2041, with an anticipated expansion of 623 persons, reflecting a total gain of 4.7% over the 17-year period based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Dover Heights according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Dover Heights has averaged approximately 46 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 232 homes were approved, with an additional 9 approved so far in FY-26. Despite a decrease in population during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average expected construction cost value for new dwellings is $1,664,000, indicating that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, there have been $585,000 in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Dover Heights has had slightly more development activity, with 40.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period, while maintaining good buyer choice and supporting existing property values. However, development activity has moderated in recent periods.

The new building activity shows a skew towards compact living, with 21.0% detached houses and 79.0% townhouses or apartments. This trend offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. With around 391 people per dwelling approval, Dover Heights exhibits a developed market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Dover Heights is expected to grow by 543 residents through to 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Dover Heights has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 29 projects that could affect the region. Notable initiatives include OSHR at Vaucluse - Seniors Living Development, Refresh Vaucluse Diamond Bay - Wastewater Infrastructure, Kincoppal-Rose Bay School Campus Masterplan, and Wilberforce Avenue Car Park Redevelopment. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Dover Heights shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Dover Heights has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 3.0% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.5%. In June 2025, 6,833 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.2% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Dover Heights was 65.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment is concentrated in professional & technical (1.6 times the regional level), health care & social assistance, and finance & insurance sectors.

Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing shows lower representation at 2.2% versus the regional average of 5.3%. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 2.5%, while labour force increased by 2.4%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.1 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6%, labour force growth of 2.9%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. In NSW as of Nov-25, employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Dover Heights's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.6% over five years and 15.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The Dover Heights SA2 had a high national income level according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. Its median income among taxpayers was $78,447 and the average income was $210,821. This compared to Greater Sydney's figures of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $88,339 (median) and $237,406 (average) as of September 2025. Census data revealed that household, family, and personal incomes all ranked highly in Dover Heights, between the 95th and 95th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicated that the largest segment comprised 36.6% earning $4000+ weekly (4,213 residents), differing from patterns across regional levels where $1,500 - 2,999 dominated with 30.9%. The district demonstrated considerable affluence with 48.1% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consumed 18.4% of income, though strong earnings still placed disposable income at the 93rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 10th decile.

Dover Heights features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dover Heights' dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 34.4% houses and 65.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). In comparison, Sydney metro had 18.3% houses and 81.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Dover Heights was at 31.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.3% and rented ones at 35.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,788, higher than Sydney metro's $3,600. The median weekly rent was $650, compared to Sydney metro's $670. Nationally, Dover Heights' mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national average of $375.

Dover Heights has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 71.5% of all households, including 36.1% couples with children, 25.1% couples without children, and 9.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 28.5%, consisting of 25.2% lone person households and 3.4% group households. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.3.

Dover Heights shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Dover Heights' educational attainment is notably higher than national averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 54.0% have university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and NSW's 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent (37.2%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.6%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational pathways account for 21.1%, with advanced diplomas at 11.3% and certificates at 9.8%.

Educational participation is high, with 32.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 6.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Dover Heights has 48 active public transport stops. These are served by buses on 34 different routes, offering a total of 1,528 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 129 meters, indicating excellent accessibility.

On average, there are 218 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 31 weekly trips per individual stop.

Dover Heights's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Dover Heights shows excellent health outcomes with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 94% of the total population (10,810 people), compared to 89.7% in Greater Sydney and 55.3% nationally. Asthma and arthritis are the most common medical conditions, affecting 5.2% and 5.1% of residents respectively.

A total of 79.1% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 77.6% in Greater Sydney. The area has 16.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,931 people). Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

Dover Heights was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Dover Heights has high cultural diversity, with 23.5% speaking a language other than English at home and 44.6% born overseas. The predominant religion is Judaism, comprising 44.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's 16.0%. Top ancestry groups include Other (21.7%), English (17.8%), and Australian (14.9%).

Notably, South African ancestry is overrepresented at 8.1% (regional average: 2.4%), Russian at 3.2% (regional average: 1.6%), and Polish at 2.9% (regional average: 1.9%).

Dover Heights's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Dover Heights is 39 years, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. The 45-54 age cohort is notably over-represented in Dover Heights at 14.7%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 11.8%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15-24 age group has grown from 11.3% to 14.1% of the population, and the 75-84 cohort has increased from 4.9% to 6.0%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has declined from 13.8% to 12.4%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Dover Heights, with the 85+ age group expected to grow by 113% (from 254 to 541 people). Residents aged 65 and older are anticipated to represent 67% of this growth. Conversely, the 25-34 and 0-4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.