Elizabeth Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Elizabeth Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area around the suburb of Elizabeth Bay, its population is estimated at around 5,302 as of February 2026. This reflects an increase of 424 people, representing an 8.7% growth since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 4,878 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 5,301 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 21,208 persons per square kilometer, placing Elizabeth Bay in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch, indicating high demand for land in the area. The suburb's 8.7% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the state average of 7.8%, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where applicable, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, a significant population increase is forecast for Elizabeth Bay, with an expected expansion of 2,237 persons, reflecting a gain of 41.3% in total over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Elizabeth Bay is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Elizabeth Bay has seen approximately five new homes approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 28 homes were approved, with another three approved so far in FY26. Despite a decline in population during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, indicating a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average expected construction cost of new dwellings is $1,870,000, suggesting developers are focusing on the premium market and high-end developments. This financial year has seen $8.1 million in commercial approvals, reflecting Elizabeth Bay's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Elizabeth Bay shows significantly reduced construction activity, with 80.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new homes typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Looking at national levels, Elizabeth Bay reflects market maturity and possible development constraints, as its construction level is also lower than the national average. Recent development in Elizabeth Bay has been entirely comprised of medium and high-density housing, providing accessible entry options that appeal to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers.

With around 5164 people per approval, it indicates a mature, established area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Elizabeth Bay is expected to grow by 2,192 residents through to 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth in the future.

Elizabeth Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects likely to affect this region. Notable projects include The Potts Point Hotel Redevelopment (Queensgate), Minerva Theatre Restoration, 45-53 Macleay Street Mixed-Use Development (The Chimes), and Opal Next Generation Ticketing System. Below is a list of those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Elizabeth Bay has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Elizabeth Bay has a highly educated workforce with significant representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate is 5.7%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, 3435 residents are employed while the unemployment rate stands at 1.5% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Elizabeth Bay is similar to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. A high proportion, 64.0%, of residents work from home, though this could be influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment in the area is concentrated in professional & technical services (2.0 times the regional level), finance & insurance, and health care & social assistance. Construction employs just 3.0% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 8.6%.

Many residents appear to commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, Elizabeth Bay's labour force decreased by 1.4%, with employment declining by 2.1%, leading to an unemployment rate increase of 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.1% and the labour force grow by 2.4%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors over five and ten-year periods. Applying these projections to Elizabeth Bay's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 7.5% over five years and 14.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Elizabeth Bay is exceptionally high nationally. The median income is $80,877 and the average income stands at $149,951. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $88,043 (median) and $163,237 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, individual earnings rank at the 99th percentile nationally ($1,676 weekly), though household income ranks lower at the 73rd percentile. The predominant earnings cohort spans 29.6% of locals (1,569 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting patterns seen in the metropolitan region where 30.9% similarly occupy this range. Notably, 35.9% earn above $3,000 weekly, indicating pockets of prosperity that drive robust local economic activity. High housing costs consume 19.1% of income, yet strong earnings place disposable income at the 68th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Elizabeth Bay features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Elizabeth Bay, as per the latest Census, consisted of 0.3% houses and 99.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Elizabeth Bay stood at 22.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 17.0% and rented ones at 60.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,582, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Elizabeth Bay was recorded at $500, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Elizabeth Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Elizabeth Bay features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 33.6% of all households, including 4.9% that are couples with children, 25.9% that are couples without children, and 2.4% that are single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 66.4%, with lone person households making up 61.9% and group households comprising 4.6%. The median household size is 1.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Elizabeth Bay demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Elizabeth Bay has higher educational attainment than national averages. Among residents aged 15+, 64.7% have university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.2% in NSW. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 40.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (20.2%) and graduate diplomas (4.1%). Vocational pathways account for 19.2% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 11.0% and certificates at 8.2%.

School attendance in the area includes 17.2% of residents, with 8.2% in tertiary education, 2.2% in primary education, and 1.3% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Elizabeth Bay has ten operational public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by one route collectively offering 656 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 99 meters to the nearest stop. Being primarily residential, most commuting is outward-bound. Cars remain the primary mode at 35%, followed by walking at 28% and train at 21%. Vehicle ownership averages 0.2 per dwelling, below the regional average.

Notably, 64.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census; potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions). The service frequency averages 93 trips per day across all routes, equating to around 65 weekly trips per individual stop.

Elizabeth Bay's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Elizabeth Bay's health outcomes show significant positive results according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were found to be very low across all age groups. Approximately 86% of Elizabeth Bay's total population (4,553 people) has private health cover, which is notably higher than Greater Sydney's 59.9% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions in the area were mental health issues affecting 9.5% of residents and asthma impacting 6.8%. Notably, 69.8% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Working-age residents displayed low chronic condition prevalence. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 22.4% (1,187 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Health outcomes among seniors in Elizabeth Bay are particularly strong, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Elizabeth Bay was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Elizabeth Bay's population showed higher cultural diversity compared to most local markets, with 16.2% speaking a language other than English at home and 36.7% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Elizabeth Bay, comprising 34.3% of its population. However, Judaism was significantly overrepresented at 2.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's average of 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (27.0%), Australian (15.5%), and Other (12.0%). Notably, French (1.8%) Hungarian (0.7%), and Polish (1.5%) ethnicities were also overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0.6% respectively.

Elizabeth Bay hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Elizabeth Bay is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and the national average of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are particularly prominent at 23.4%, while those aged 5-14 are smaller at 1.9%. This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is higher than the national average of 14.4%. Between 2021 and present, the population aged 15-24 has grown from 4.4% to 6.1%, while those aged 75-84 have increased from 6.1% to 7.5%. Conversely, the population aged 45-54 has declined from 14.0% to 12.5%, and those aged 25-34 have dropped from 24.7% to 23.4%. By 2041, demographic projections show that the age cohort of 85+ is expected to grow significantly, increasing by 371 people (159%) from 233 to 605.