Ultimo

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ultimo reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ultimo's population, as of February 2026, is approximately 10,044 people. This figure represents an increase of 2,634 individuals, a rise of 35.5% since the 2021 Census which recorded a population of 7,410. The change is inferred from ABS estimates and address validation between the Census date and June 2024. This results in a population density ratio of 17,935 persons per square kilometer, placing Ultimo within the top 10% of locations assessed by AreaSearch, indicating high demand for land in the area. Ultimo's growth rate exceeded both the state average (7.8%) and Greater Sydney during this period. Overseas migration contributed approximately 96.7% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicate a significant increase in Ultimo, with an expected growth of 3,534 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 35.2% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ultimo according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ultimo has seen minimal dwelling approvals in recent years. Between FY21 and FY25, only 3 homes were approved, with another 1 approved so far in FY26. This results in an average of 377.3 new residents per year for every home built during this period, indicating significant supply shortage compared to demand.

Consequently, buyer competition is heightened, leading to pricing pressures. The average construction cost value of new properties is $491,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY26, $6.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting Ultimo's residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Ultimo has markedly lower building activity. This scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. However, building activity has accelerated in recent years, though it remains below the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New construction in Ultimo has been exclusively comprised of detached houses, sustaining its suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. This focus on detached housing is more pronounced than current patterns suggest (0.0% at Census), indicating robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures.

Ultimo has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include Powerhouse Ultimo Renewal, apt.Broadway, DigiCo SYD1 Data Centre Expansion (an 88MW design and construct project), and The Post House. Relevant projects are detailed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Ultimo demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Ultimo has a highly educated workforce with notable representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate is 2.8%. Over the past year, it has maintained relative employment stability.

As of September 2025, there are 6,117 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.4% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Ultimo is at 66.3%, slightly lower than Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 47.8% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key employment sectors include professional & technical services, accommodation & food, and education & training.

Ultimo has a significant employment specialization in accommodation & food, with a share 2.6 times the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance employs only 8.3% of local workers, lower than Greater Sydney's 14.1%. There are approximately 2.0 workers for every resident, indicating Ultimo functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels in Ultimo increased by 0.3%, while the labour force decreased by 0.3%, resulting in a 0.6 percentage point decrease in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, issued in May-25, project national employment to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ultimo's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The latest postcode level ATO data from AreaSearch for financial year 2023 indicates Ultimo SA2's median income among taxpayers is $41,716, with an average of $59,906. This is below the national average and compares to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $45,412 (median) and $65,214 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Ultimo, between the 43rd and 53rd percentiles. Looking at income distribution, the predominant cohort spans 32.7% of locals (3,284 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting patterns seen regionally where 30.9% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 75.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 43rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Ultimo features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ultimo's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 0.2% houses and 99.8% other dwellings like semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This contrasts with Sydney metropolitan area's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ultimo stood at 13.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 13.4% and rented ones at 73.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Ultimo was $2,500, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure for Ultimo was $500, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Ultimo's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national average of $375.

Ultimo features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 45.4% of all households, including 10.5% couples with children, 27.1% couples without children, and 5.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up 54.6%, composed of 36.6% lone person households and 18.1% group households. The median household size is 2.1 people, smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Ultimo demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Ultimo's residents aged 15 and above exhibit higher educational attainment than national and state averages. Specifically, 57.2% of Ultimo's residents possess university qualifications compared to Australia's 30.4% and NSW's 32.2%. This indicates a significant educational advantage for the area. Bachelor degrees are the most common qualification at 36.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (18.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%).

Vocational pathways account for 19.6% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas making up 12.0% and certificates 7.6%. Educational participation is notably high in Ultimo, with 45.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 24.0% in tertiary education, 2.7% in primary education, and 1.6% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 14 active stops operating in Ultimo, serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are served by 34 individual routes, collectively providing 10,627 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 136 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Walking is notably common at 26%, with 22% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 0.2 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 47.8% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 1,518 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 759 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ultimo's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Ultimo's health outcomes show remarkable results based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were very low across all age groups. Approximately 49% of Ultimo's total population (~4,911 people) had private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues affected 5.8% of residents, while asthma impacted 4.8%. A significant majority, 85.5%, declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments. This is higher than Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Ultimo has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 5.2% (519 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Health outcomes among seniors in Ultimo are strong, broadly in line with the general population nationally.

Ultimo is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ultimo has a high level of cultural diversity, with 62.7% speaking a language other than English at home and 71.2% born overseas. Christianity is the dominant religion in Ultimo, comprising 22.2%. Buddhism is more prevalent here compared to Greater Sydney, making up 13.9% versus the regional average of 4.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (27.7%), Other (24.2%), and English (11.9%). These figures differ significantly from regional averages: Chinese is higher than the regional average of 8.4%, Other is higher than 16.0%, and English is lower than 19.0%. Notably, Spanish (1.1% vs 0.6%), Korean (1.7% vs 1.1%), and Russian (0.6% vs 0.4%) are overrepresented in Ultimo compared to regional averages.

Ultimo hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Ultimo's median age is 28, which is lower than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's median of 38. The age profile shows that individuals aged 25-34 are particularly prominent, making up 36.5% of the population, while those aged 5-14 constitute only 3.0%. This is in contrast to Greater Sydney and the national average of 14.4% for the 25-34 age group. Post-2021 Census data reveals a rejuvenation trend as the median age fell from 30 to 28 years. The 15-24 age group has grown significantly, from 20.6% to 29.1%, while the 35-44 cohort declined from 17.3% to 14.0% and the 45-54 group dropped from 8.1% to 5.9%. Population forecasts for Ultimo in 2041 indicate substantial demographic shifts, with the 45-54 age group projected to grow by 205%, adding 1,219 residents to reach 1,815. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is expected to decrease by 709 residents.