Ultimo
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ultimo reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ultimo's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 9,990, indicating a growth of 2,580 people since the 2021 Census which recorded a population of 7,410. This increase reflects an estimated resident population of 10,044 in June 2024 and seven validated new addresses post-Census date. The population density ratio is 17,839 persons per square kilometer, placing Ultimo in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Ultimo's growth rate of 34.8% since the 2021 Census exceeds the state average of 6.4%, demonstrating its status as a regional growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 96.7% to Ultimo's population gains recently. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are utilized, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Ultimo's population is projected to increase by 3,534 persons, reflecting an overall increase of 35.9% over the seventeen-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ultimo according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ultimo saw virtually no dwelling approvals in recent years, with 3 homes approved over the past five financial years from FY21 to FY25, and 1 so far in FY26. This averages out to approximately 377.3 new residents per year for every home built during this period, indicating substantial supply lagging behind demand. Consequently, heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures are expected.

Additionally, $6.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting Ultimo's residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Ultimo records significantly lower building activity, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. However, recent periods have seen an increase in development activity, though it remains lower than the national average, possibly due to market maturity or development constraints. Recent development has been entirely comprised of detached dwellings, maintaining Ultimo's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. Interestingly, developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (0% at Census), indicating continued strong demand for family homes.

Ultimo has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 18 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Powerhouse Ultimo Revitalisation, apt.Broadway, DigiCo SYD1 Data Centre Expansion (88MW D&O Project), and Bay St, Ultimo. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The employment environment in Ultimo shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Ultimo has an educated workforce with high representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate was 3.1% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.0% over the past year.

In June 2025, 5,982 residents were employed at a rate of 1.1% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation was 63.3%. Leading industries include professional & technical services, accommodation & food, and education & training. Accommodation & food had particularly high employment levels at 2.6 times the regional average. Health care & social assistance, however, had limited presence with 8.3% employment compared to 14.1% regionally.

As of Census data, there were 2.0 workers per resident, indicating Ultimo functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. In the 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 1.0%, labour force by 0.6%, and unemployment fell by 0.3 percentage points. Comparatively, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6%, labour force growth of 2.9%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. As of Sep-25, NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. National unemployment was 4.5%, with national employment growth lagging at 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's forecasts from May 2025 project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to Ultimo's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.8%% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Ultimo's median income among taxpayers was $41,108 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $61,333 during the same period. These figures are below Greater Sydney's median and average incomes of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. By March 2025, estimates suggest Ultimo's median income would be approximately $45,465 and the average income around $67,834, based on a 10.6% growth in wages since financial year 2022. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Ultimo rank modestly, between the 43rd and 53rd percentiles. Income distribution shows that 32.7% of Ultimo's population (3,266 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, similar to the metropolitan region where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Ultimo, with only 75.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 43rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Ultimo features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ultimo's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 0.2% houses and 99.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metropolitan area had 2.3% houses and 97.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ultimo was at 13.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 13.4% and rented ones at 73.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Ultimo was $2,500, lower than Sydney metro's $2,705. The median weekly rent in Ultimo was $500, compared to Sydney metro's $550. Nationally, Ultimo's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,500 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Ultimo features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 45.4% of all households, including 10.5% that are couples with children, 27.1% that are couples without children, and 5.1% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 54.6%, with lone person households at 36.6% and group households comprising 18.1%. The median household size is 2.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 1.9.

Ultimo demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Ultimo is notably higher than broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15+, 57.2% hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% in Australia and 32.2% in NSW. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 36.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (18.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational pathways account for 19.6% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 12.0% and certificates at 7.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 45.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 24.0% in tertiary education, 2.7% in primary education, and 1.6% pursuing secondary education. Ultimo's three schools have a combined enrollment reaching 1,790 students as of the latest data. The area demonstrates significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement, with an ICSEA score of 1138. The educational mix includes one primary school, one secondary school, and one K-12 school. As of 2021, the area functions as an education hub with 17.9 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 7.7, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Ultimo shows 13 active transport stops operating. These stops serve a mix of buses. There are 34 individual routes servicing these stops, providing a total of 9,446 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 136 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 1,349 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 726 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ultimo's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Ultimo exhibits excellent health outcomes across all age groups, with a very low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 51% (~5,054 people) have private health cover, compared to 69.7% in Greater Sydney.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 5.8% and 4.8% of residents respectively. Around 85.5% report being completely free from medical ailments, higher than the 77.4% across Greater Sydney. Ultimo has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 4.9% (490 people), compared to 9.7% in Greater Sydney. The health profile of seniors is strong and largely aligns with that of the general population.

Ultimo is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ultimo has one of the highest percentages of language diversity in Australia, with 62.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Born overseas, 71.2% of Ultimo's population contributes to its cultural richness. Christianity is the primary religion, practiced by 22.2%.

Buddhism, however, is particularly prominent at 13.9%, exceeding Greater Sydney's average of 7.1%. In terms of ancestry, Chinese heritage is notably high at 27.7% compared to the regional average of 13.0%. The 'Other' category comprises 24.2%, higher than the regional average of 16.1%. English ancestry, however, is lower at 11.9% against the regional average of 19.8%. Other groups with notable representation include Spanish (1.1%), Korean (1.7%), and Russian (0.6%).

Ultimo hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Ultimo's median age is 28, which is lower than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's median of 38. The age profile shows that individuals aged 25-34 make up 36.6% of the population, while those aged 5-14 constitute only 3.0%. This concentration of young adults is significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. Post-2021 Census data indicates a rejuvenation in Ultimo's population, with the median age falling from 30 to 28 years. The 15-24 age group has grown from 20.6% to 29.9%, while the 35-44 cohort has declined from 17.3% to 13.7%. Additionally, the 45-54 age group has dropped from 8.1% to 5.8%. Population forecasts for Ultimo in 2041 suggest substantial demographic changes. The 45-54 age cohort is projected to grow by 214%, adding 1,236 residents to reach a total of 1,815. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is expected to decrease by 702 residents.