Ultimo
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ultimo reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ultimo's population was around 9,990 as of Aug 2025. This increase from the 2021 Census figure of 7,410 reflects a growth of 2,580 people (34.8%). The change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population of 10,044 in June 2024 and additional 7 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 17,839 persons per square kilometer, placing Ultimo among the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth exceeded both state (6.4%) and metropolitan area figures, marking it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 96.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicate a significant increase in the top quartile of national areas, with Ultimo expected to grow by 3,534 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 35.9% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ultimo according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ultimo has received approximately 9 dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reports 49 dwellings approved in Ultimo over the past five financial years, from FY20 to FY25, with one recorded so far in FY26. On average, about 377.3 new residents have arrived per year for each dwelling constructed during this period. This indicates substantial demand outpacing supply, likely leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures.

Commercial approvals totaled $6.6 million in the current financial year, suggesting limited commercial development focus. Compared to Greater Sydney, Ultimo has notably lower building activity, which typically reinforces demand for existing dwellings despite recent increases in development activity. This activity is also lower than national levels, possibly indicating market maturity and development constraints. All new construction in Ultimo comprises detached houses, preserving its suburban character and appealing to space-seeking buyers. This contrasts with the current housing pattern of 0% detached houses at Census, suggesting robust demand for family homes.

Ultimo's population is expected to grow by 3,588 residents by 2041, potentially outpacing housing supply if current development rates persist, which could heighten buyer competition and support price increases.

Ultimo has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 18 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Powerhouse Ultimo Revitalisation, apt.Broadway, DigiCo SYD1 Data Centre Expansion (88MW D&O Project), and Bay St, Ultimo. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Ultimo exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Ultimo's workforce is highly educated, with the technology sector notably represented. The unemployment rate in Ultimo was 3.1% as of June 2024.

In the past year, employment grew by an estimated 1.0%. As of June 2025, 5,982 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.1%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Ultimo is 63.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries for employment among residents include professional & technical services, accommodation & food, and education & training.

Ultimo specializes in the accommodation & food industry, with an employment share of 2.6 times the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance employs only 8.3% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 14.1%. There are 2.0 workers for every resident in Ultimo, indicating it functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.0% while the labour force grew by 0.6%, resulting in a decrease of unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%. State-level data from Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41%, losing 19,270 jobs, with a state unemployment rate of 4.3%, compared to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ultimo's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.8%% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch released its latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022. Ultimo's median income among taxpayers was $41,108, with an average of $61,333. Both figures were below the national average. Greater Sydney's median income was $56,994 and its average was $80,856 in the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, Ultimo's estimated median income as of March 2025 is approximately $45,465, and the average is around $67,834. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Ultimo rank modestly, between the 43rd and 53rd percentiles. The predominant income cohort spans 32.7% of locals (3,266 people), falling within the $1,500 - $2,999 category. This pattern is similar to that seen in the region where 30.9% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 75.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 43rd percentile. Ultimo's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Ultimo features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ultimo's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 0.2% houses and 99.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Sydney metro had 2.3% houses and 97.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ultimo was at 13.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 13.4% and rented ones at 73.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Ultimo was $2,500, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,705. The median weekly rent figure for Ultimo was $500, compared to Sydney metro's $550. Nationally, Ultimo's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Ultimo features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 45.4% of all households, including 10.5% couples with children, 27.1% couples without children, and 5.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 54.6%, with lone person households at 36.6% and group households comprising 18.1%. The median household size is 2.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 1.9.

Ultimo demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Ultimo is notably high, with 57.2% of residents aged 15 years and above holding university qualifications. This compares to 30.4% at the national level and 32.2% in New South Wales (NSW). The majority of these qualifications are bachelor degrees (36.1%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (18.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational pathways account for 19.6%, with advanced diplomas at 12.0% and certificates at 7.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 45.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 24.0% in tertiary education, 2.7% in primary education, and 1.6% pursuing secondary education. Ultimo's three schools combined have an enrollment of 1,790 students. The International Comparative Statistics on Education Attainment (ICSEA) score for Ultimo is 1138, indicating significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement. The area has one primary school, one secondary school, and one K-12 school, functioning as an education hub with 17.9 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 7.7. This attracts students from surrounding communities to Ultimo's schools.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 13 operational transit hubs within Ultimo, offering a blend of bus services. These stops cater to 34 distinct routes, facilitating 9,446 weekly passenger journeys collectively. Transit accessibility is rated high, with residents averaging a distance of 136 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 1,349 trips daily across all routes, translating to roughly 726 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ultimo's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data for Ultimo shows very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Private health cover rate is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~5,054 people), compared to 69.7% across Greater Sydney.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 5.8 and 4.8% of residents respectively. 85.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 77.4% across Greater Sydney. Ultimo has 4.9% of residents aged 65 and over (490 people), which is lower than the 9.7% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Ultimo is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ultimo's population is predominantly diverse linguistically, with 62.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Born overseas, 71.2% of Ultimo residents are foreign-born. Christianity is the predominant religion in Ultimo at 22.2%.

Buddhism, however, is significantly more prevalent here compared to Greater Sydney, standing at 13.9% versus 7.1%. In terms of ancestry, Chinese comprise 27.7%, Other 24.2%, and English 11.9%. These figures are notably higher than regional averages except for English, which is lower at 11.9% compared to 19.8%. Spanish (1.1%), Korean (1.7%), and Russian (0.6%) also show notable divergences in representation from regional averages.

Ultimo hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Ultimo has a median age of 28, which is lower than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and considerably younger than Australia's median age of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are particularly prominent at 36.6%, while the 5-14 age group is smaller at 3.0% compared to Greater Sydney. This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is well above the national figure of 14.5%. Post-2021 Census data indicates a rejuvenation, with the median age falling from 30 to 28 years. Key changes include the 15-24 age group growing from 20.6% to 29.9%, while the 35-44 cohort declined from 17.3% to 13.7% and the 45-54 group dropped from 8.1% to 5.8%. Population forecasts for Ultimo in 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes, with the 45-54 age group projected to grow by 214%, adding 1,236 residents to reach 1,815. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is forecasted to decrease by 702 residents.