Ultimo
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ultimo reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ultimo's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 9,990. This figure represents a growth of 2,580 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 7,410. The increase is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 10,044 in June 2024 and seven validated new addresses added post-Census. Ultimo's population density stands at 17,839 persons per square kilometer, placing it within the top 10% of locations assessed by AreaSearch, indicating high demand for land in the area. The suburb's growth rate of 34.8% since the 2021 Census exceeds both state (6.4%) and metropolitan averages, positioning Ultimo as a regional growth leader. Overseas migration accounts for approximately 96.7% of Ultimo's population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for SA2 areas covered by this data, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for uncovered areas. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Ultimo is projected to have a population of approximately 13,524, reflecting an increase of 35.9% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ultimo according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ultimo has seen minimal dwelling approvals in recent years. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis. From FY-21 to FY-25, there were 3 homes approved each year, with 1 recorded so far in FY-26. This averages out to approximately 377.3 new residents arriving per dwelling constructed annually over the past five years.

The supply lagging demand indicates heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. In contrast, commercial approvals have reached $6.6 million this financial year, suggesting limited focus on commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Ultimo has notably lower building activity, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. However, recent periods have seen some pickup in development activity. Nationally, Ultimo's development activity is also lower, possibly due to market maturity or development constraints. Recent development has consisted solely of detached dwellings, preserving the area's suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. Notably, developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests at Census, indicating strong demand for family homes.

Ultimo has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure can significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects that are likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include Powerhouse Ultimo Revitalisation, apt.Broadway, DigiCo SYD1 Data Centre Expansion (an 88MW design and construct project), and Bay St, Ultimo. The following list details those projects deemed most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The employment environment in Ultimo shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Ultimo has a highly educated workforce with significant representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate was 3.1% as of an unspecified date.

Over the past year, estimated employment growth was 1.0%. As of June 2025, there were 5,982 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.1%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation was 63.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading employment industries among residents included professional & technical, accommodation & food, and education & training.

The area had a particularly notable concentration in accommodation & food, with employment levels at 2.6 times the regional average. Health care & social assistance had limited presence, with 8.3% employment compared to 14.1% regionally. There were 2.0 workers for every resident as of the Census, indicating that Ultimo functions as an employment hub hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. Over a 12-month period ending in June 2025, employment increased by 1.0%, labour force increased by 0.6%, resulting in unemployment falling by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6%, labour force growth of 2.9%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%, lagging the national employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest Ultimo's employment could grow by approximately 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Ultimo's median income among taxpayers was $41,108 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $61,333 during the same period. These figures compare to Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, Ultimo's median income is estimated to be approximately $45,465 as of March 2025, with the average income around $67,834 during this period. Census data indicates that household, family and personal incomes in Ultimo rank modestly, between the 43rd and 53rd percentiles. Income distribution shows that 32.7% of Ultimo's population (3,266 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the metropolitan region where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Ultimo, with only 75.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 43rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Ultimo features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ultimo's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 0.2% houses and 99.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 2.3% houses and 97.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ultimo stood at 13.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 13.4% and rented ones at 73.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,500, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,705. The median weekly rent in Ultimo was $500, compared to Sydney metro's $550. Nationally, Ultimo's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,500 against the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Ultimo features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 45.4% of all households, including 10.5% couples with children, 27.1% couples without children, and 5.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 54.6%, with lone person households at 36.6% and group households making up 18.1%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 1.9.

Ultimo demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Ultimo is notably high with 57.2% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications, exceeding national (30.4%) and state (32.2%) averages. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 36.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (18.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational pathways account for 19.6% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 12.0% and certificates at 7.6%. Educational participation is high, with 45.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 24.0% in tertiary, 2.7% in primary, and 1.6% pursuing secondary education.

Ultimo's three schools have a combined enrollment of 1,790 students. The area has significant socio-educational advantages with an ICSEA score of 1138. Educational institutions include one primary, one secondary, and one K-12 school. Ultimo functions as an education hub with 17.9 school places per 100 residents, significantly higher than the regional average of 7.7. This attracts students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 13 active stops operating within Ultimo. These are mixed bus stops serviced by 34 routes, providing a total of 9,446 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 136 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 1,349 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 726 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ultimo's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Ultimo has excellent health outcomes, with a low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Approximately 51% (~5,054 people) have private health cover, compared to 69.7% in Greater Sydney.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions, affecting 5.8 and 4.8% of residents respectively. About 85.5% of residents report being free from medical ailments, compared to 77.4% across Greater Sydney. Ultimo has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 4.9% (490 people), than the 9.7% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, aligning with the overall population's health profile.

Ultimo is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ultimo has one of the most culturally diverse populations in Australia, with 62.7% speaking a language other than English at home and 71.2% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Ultimo, accounting for 22.2% of its population. However, Buddhism is significantly overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney's average, comprising 13.9% of Ultimo's population.

The top three ancestry groups in Ultimo are Chinese at 27.7%, Other at 24.2%, and English at 11.9%. These figures differ notably from regional averages: Chinese (13.0%), Other (16.1%), and English (19.8%). There are also significant divergences in the representation of Spanish, Korean, and Russian ethnic groups: Spanish is 1.1% (regional average: 1.0%), Korean is 1.7% (regional average: 1.1%), and Russian is 0.6% (regional average: 0.8%).

Ultimo hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Ultimo's median age is 28, which is lower than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's median of 38. The most prominent age group in Ultimo is those aged 25-34 (36.6%), while the 5-14 age group is smaller at 3.0% compared to Greater Sydney. This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. According to post-2021 Census data, Ultimo's median age has fallen from 30 to 28 years, indicating a rejuvenation of the population. The 15 to 24 age group has grown from 20.6% to 29.9%, while the 35 to 44 cohort has declined from 17.3% to 13.7%. The 45 to 54 age group has also decreased, from 8.1% to 5.8%. Population forecasts for Ultimo in 2041 suggest significant demographic changes. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 214%, adding 1,236 residents to reach 1,815. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is forecasted to decrease by 702 residents.