Ultimo

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ultimo reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ultimo's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 9,616 people. This figure represents a 2,206 person increase since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 7,410. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 10,044 in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 17,171 persons per square kilometer, placing Ultimo in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 29.8% since the 2021 census exceeds both the state (6.7%) and metropolitan areas, positioning it as a regional growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 96.7% of Ultimo's population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 using a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Ultimo is projected to experience a significant population increase, with an expected growth of 3,534 persons, reflecting a total increase of 41.2% over the 17-year period based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ultimo according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ultimo has seen minimal dwelling approvals in recent years. Between FY-21 and FY-25, only 3 homes were approved, with another 1 approved so far in FY-26. This translates to an average of 377.3 new residents per year for every home built during this period, indicating significant supply lagging behind demand.

Consequently, heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures are expected. The average construction cost value of new properties is $491,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totaled $6.6 million, reflecting Ultimo's residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Ultimo has markedly lower building activity. This scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. However, building activity has accelerated in recent years, reaching levels below the national average, indicating Ultimo's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. New construction in Ultimo has been entirely comprised of detached houses, sustaining its suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. This preference for detached housing is more pronounced than current patterns suggest (0.0% at Census), demonstrating robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures.

Ultimo has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects that could impact the area. Notable ones include Powerhouse Ultimo Renewal, apt.Broadway, DigiCo SYD1 Data Centre Expansion (88MW D&O Project), and The Post House. Below is a list of those most likely to be relevant.

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Employment conditions in Ultimo demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Ultimo has a highly educated workforce, with the technology sector being particularly prominent. Its unemployment rate is 2.8%.

Over the past year, it has maintained relative employment stability. As of September 2025, 6,117 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.4% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Ultimo is similar to that of Greater Sydney (63.3% vs 60.0%). The key industries of employment among residents are professional & technical, accommodation & food, and education & training.

Ultimo has a significant specialization in the accommodation & food industry, with an employment share 2.6 times higher than the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance employs only 8.3% of local workers, lower than Greater Sydney's 14.1%. The area functions as an employment hub, hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from nearby regions. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Ultimo experienced a 0.3% increase in employment levels and a 0.3% decrease in labour force, leading to a 0.6 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a slight rise in unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data from NSW up to 25-Nov shows employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ultimo's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Ultimo SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $41,108 and an average of $61,333. This is below the national average. Greater Sydney's median was $56,994 with an average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $46,292 (median) and $69,067 (average). Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes rank modestly in Ultimo, between the 43rd and 53rd percentiles. The predominant income cohort spans 32.7% of locals (3,144 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting regional patterns where 30.9% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 75.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 43rd percentile. Ultimo's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Ultimo features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Ultimo, as per the latest Census evaluation, 0.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 99.8% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Sydney metropolitan area's 2.3% houses and 97.7% other dwellings. Ultimo's home ownership rate was 13.2%, lower than Sydney metro's level. Mortgaged dwellings constituted 13.4%, while rented dwellings made up 73.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Ultimo was $2,500, below Sydney metro's average of $2,705. The median weekly rent in Ultimo was $500, compared to Sydney metro's $550. Nationally, Ultimo's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Ultimo features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 45.4% of all households, including 10.5% couples with children, 27.1% couples without children, and 5.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 54.6%, with lone person households at 36.6% and group households comprising 18.1%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 1.9.

Ultimo demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Ultimo is notably high, with 57.2% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications. This figure exceeds the national average of 30.4% and the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 36.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 18.9% and graduate diplomas at 2.2%. Vocational pathways account for 19.6% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas making up 12.0% and certificates 7.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 45.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 24.0% in tertiary education, 2.7% in primary education, and 1.6% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 13 operational transport stops in Ultimo, offering a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 34 distinct routes, facilitating a total of 9,446 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed excellent, with residents generally situated 136 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 1,349 trips daily across all routes, translating to roughly 726 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ultimo's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Ultimo has excellent health outcomes, with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Approximately 51% (~4865 people) have private health cover, which is lower than Greater Sydney's 69.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent conditions in Ultimo, affecting 5.8% and 4.8% of residents respectively. Around 85.5% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 77.4% across Greater Sydney. As of 2021, approximately 4.9% (~472 people) are aged 65 and over, lower than Greater Sydney's 9.7%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Ultimo are strong, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

Ultimo is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ultimo's population is predominantly diverse linguistically, with 62.7% speaking a language other than English at home. A significant portion, 71.2%, was born overseas. Christianity is the primary religion in Ultimo, comprising 22.2%.

Buddhism's representation stands out at 13.9%, higher than Greater Sydney's average of 7.1%. In terms of ancestry, Chinese comprise 27.7% of Ultimo's population, substantially more than the regional average of 13.0%. 'Other' ancestry makes up 24.2%, also notably higher than the regional average of 16.1%. English ancestry is lower at 11.9%, compared to the regional average of 19.8%. Spanish, Korean, and Russian ethnicities show notable divergences: Spanish at 1.1% (vs 1.0%), Korean at 1.7% (vs 1.1%), and Russian at 0.6% (vs 0.8%).

Ultimo hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Ultimo's median age is 28, which is lower than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's median of 38. The age profile shows that individuals aged 25-34 are particularly prominent, making up 36.6% of the population, while those aged 5-14 comprise only 3.0%. This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. According to post-2021 Census data, Ultimo has seen a rejuvenation, with its median age falling from 30 to 28 years. The population changes show that the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 20.6% to 29.9%, while the 35 to 44 cohort has declined from 17.3% to 13.7% and the 45 to 54 group has dropped from 8.1% to 5.8%. Population forecasts for Ultimo in 2041 indicate substantial demographic shifts, with the 45 to 54 cohort projected to grow by 226%, adding 1,258 residents to reach 1,815. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group is expected to decrease by 565 residents.