Ultimo

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ultimo reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ultimo's population is around 9,616 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 2,206 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,410 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 10,044 from the ABS as of June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 17,171 persons per square kilometer, making Ultimo one of the most densely populated areas in Australia. Ultimo's growth rate of 29.8% since the 2021 census exceeded both the state (6.7%) and metropolitan area averages, indicating it as a significant growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 96.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicate a significant increase in Ultimo's population, with an expected growth of 3,534 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall increase of 41.2% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ultimo according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ultimo has seen few dwelling approvals recently. Between FY-21 and FY-25, only 3 homes were approved, with 1 more in FY-26 so far. This results in an average of 377.3 new residents per home built annually over these years.

Supply is lagging demand, leading to potential buyer competition and pricing pressures. In contrast, $6.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting Ultimo's residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Ultimo has lower building activity, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. However, recent periods have seen increased development activity. Nationally, Ultimo's development activity is also lower, indicating market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent development has been exclusively detached dwellings, maintaining Ultimo's suburban character focused on family homes. Notably, developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (0% at Census), indicating strong demand for family homes despite density pressures.

Ultimo has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of a region can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects that could potentially impact this area. Notable projects include Powerhouse Ultimo Renewal, apt.Broadway, DigiCo SYD1 Data Centre Expansion (88MW D&O Project), and The Post House. The following list provides details on those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Ultimo shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Ultimo has a highly educated workforce, particularly in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate is 3.1%, with an estimated employment growth of 1.0% over the past year.

As of June 2025, there are 5,982 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.1% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is at 63.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The leading employment industries among Ultimo residents are professional & technical, accommodation & food, and education & training. Notably, the area has a high concentration in accommodation & food services, with employment levels at 2.6 times the regional average.

However, health care & social assistance has limited presence, with only 8.3% of employment compared to the regional average of 14.1%. Ultimo functions as an employment hub, hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas, with a ratio of 2.0 workers per resident at the Census. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment in Ultimo increased by 1.0%, while labour force grew by 0.6%, resulting in a decrease in unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with an increase in unemployment by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. As of Nov-25, NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, while the state's unemployment rate was at 3.9%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. According to Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25, national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ultimo's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Ultimo SA2's median income among taxpayers was $41,108 in financial year 2022, according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. The average income stood at $61,333 during the same period. This compares to Greater Sydney's figures of $56,994 (median) and $80,856 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Ultimo SA2 would be approximately $46,292 (median) and $69,067 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Ultimo, between the 43rd and 53rd percentiles. Distribution data shows 32.7% of the population (3,144 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, mirroring the metropolitan region where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Ultimo, with only 75.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 43rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Ultimo features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ultimo's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 0.2% houses and 99.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Sydney metro had 2.3% houses and 97.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ultimo stood at 13.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 13.4% and rented ones at 73.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,500, below Sydney metro's average of $2,705. Median weekly rent in Ultimo was $500, compared to Sydney metro's $550. Nationally, Ultimo's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Ultimo features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 45.4% of all households, including 10.5% that are couples with children, 27.1% that are couples without children, and 5.1% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 54.6%, with lone person households at 36.6% and group households comprising 18.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 1.9.

Ultimo demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Ultimo is notably high, with 57.2% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications as of the latest data. This figure exceeds national (30.4%) and NSW state (32.2%) averages, indicating a significant educational advantage for the area. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 36.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 18.9% and graduate diplomas at 2.2%. Vocational pathways account for 19.6% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas making up 12.0% and certificates 7.6%.

Educational participation is particularly high in Ultimo, with 45.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest data available. This includes 24.0% in tertiary education, 2.7% in primary education, and 1.6% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 13 active stops operating in Ultimo, comprising bus services only. These stops are served by 34 unique routes, facilitating a total of 9,446 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed excellent, with residents situated an average of 136 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 1,349 daily trips across all routes, equating to approximately 726 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ultimo's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows Ultimo has very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Approximately 51% (~4,865 people) have private health cover, compared to 69.7% in Greater Sydney.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common conditions, affecting 5.8% and 4.8% respectively. About 85.5% of residents report no medical ailments, higher than Greater Sydney's 77.4%. Ultimo has 4.9% (472 people) aged 65 and over, lower than Greater Sydney's 9.7%. Seniors' health outcomes align with the general population's profile.

Ultimo is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ultimo has one of the highest levels of linguistic diversity in Australia, with 62.7% of its residents speaking a language other than English at home. Born overseas make up 71.2% of Ultimo's population. Christianity is the predominant religion in Ultimo, accounting for 22.2%.

Buddhism is notably overrepresented in Ultimo compared to Greater Sydney, with 13.9% versus 7.1%. The top three ancestry groups in Ultimo are Chinese at 27.7%, Other at 24.2%, and English at 11.9%. These figures differ significantly from the regional averages of 13.0%, 16.1%, and 19.8% respectively. Some other ethnic groups also show notable differences: Spanish is slightly overrepresented at 1.1%, Korean is at 1.7%, and Russian is underrepresented at 0.6%.

Ultimo hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Ultimo's median age is 28, which is lower than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's median of 38. The age profile reveals that individuals aged 25-34 are particularly prominent, making up 36.6% of the population, while those aged 5-14 constitute only 3.0%. This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. Post-2021 Census data indicates a rejuvenation trend, with the median age falling from 30 to 28 years. Key changes include an increase in the 15-24 age group's share of the population from 20.6% to 29.9%, while the 35-44 cohort decreased from 17.3% to 13.7% and the 45-54 group dropped from 8.1% to 5.8%. Population forecasts for Ultimo in 2041 suggest substantial demographic shifts, with the 45-54 age group projected to grow by 226%, adding 1,258 residents to reach a total of 1,815. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is expected to decline by 565 residents.