Ultimo

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ultimo reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Ultimo's population is around 10,044 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 2,634 people (35.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,410 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 10,044 from the ABS as of June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 17,935 persons per square kilometer, which lies in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch, making land in the area a highly-sought resource. Ultimo's 35.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the state (7.8%) and Greater Sydney, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 96.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national areas is forecast, with the area expected to grow by 3,534 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 35.2% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ultimo according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ultimo has seen virtually no dwelling approvals in recent years, with 3 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 1 so far in FY-26. At an average of 377.3 new residents per year for every home built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is substantially lagging demand, which generally means heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $491,000, demonstrating a developer focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. Additionally, $6.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting the area's residential character.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Ultimo records markedly lower building activity. This scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, though building activity has accelerated in recent years. This activity remains below the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. Meanwhile, new construction has been completely comprised of detached houses, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. New construction favours detached housing more than current patterns suggest (0.0% at Census), demonstrating ongoing robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures.

Ultimo has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 18 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Powerhouse Ultimo Renewal, apt.Broadway, DigiCo SYD1 Data Centre Expansion (88MW D&O Project), and The Post House, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Ultimo demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Ultimo features a highly educated workforce, with the technology sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of just 2.8%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 6,134 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 1.4% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (66.5% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%). Based on Census responses, a high 47.8% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are professional & technical, accommodation & food, and education & training. The area has a particular employment specialization in accommodation & food, with an employment share of 2.6 times the regional level. In contrast, health care & social assistance employs just 8.3% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 14.1%. With 2.0 workers for every resident, as at the Census, the area functions as an employment hub, hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.3% and the labour force decreased by 0.0%, resulting in unemployment falling by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%, with a marginal rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Ultimo. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Ultimo's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Ultimo SA2's median income among taxpayers is $41,716, with an average of $59,906. This is below the national average, and compares to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $45,412 (median) and $65,214 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Ultimo, between the 43rd and 53rd percentiles. Looking at income distribution, the predominant cohort spans 32.7% of locals (3,284 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting patterns seen in the region where 30.9% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 75.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 43rd percentile, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Ultimo features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Ultimo, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 0.2% houses and 99.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Ultimo was lagging that of Sydney metro, at 13.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (13.4%) or rented (73.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Sydney metro average at $2,500, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $500, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Ultimo's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Ultimo features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 45.4% of all households, comprising 10.5% couples with children, 27.1% couples without children, and 5.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 54.6%, with lone person households at 36.6% and group households comprising 18.1% of the total. The median household size of 2.1 people is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Ultimo demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Ultimo significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 57.2% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 30.4% in Australia and 32.2% in NSW. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 36.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (18.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational pathways account for 19.6% of qualifications among those aged 15+ – advanced diplomas (12.0%) and certificates (7.6%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 45.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 24.0% in tertiary education, 2.7% in primary education, and 1.6% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 14 active transport stops operating within Ultimo comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 34 individual routes, collectively providing 10,627 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 136 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; walking is notably common at 26%, with 22% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 0.2 per dwelling, below the regional average. A high 47.8% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 1,518 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 759 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ultimo's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across Ultimo, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups, and the rate of private health cover is approximately 49% of the total population (~4,911 people). This compares to 59.9% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 5.8% and 4.8% of residents, respectively, while 85.5% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The area has 5.2% of residents aged 65 and over (519 people), which is lower than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Ultimo is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ultimo is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country, with 62.7% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 71.2% born overseas. The main religion in Ultimo is Christianity, which makes up 22.2% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Buddhism, which comprises 13.9% of the population, substantially higher than the Greater Sydney average of 4.1%.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Ultimo are Chinese, comprising 27.7% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 8.4%, Other, comprising 24.2% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 16.0%, and English, comprising 11.9% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 19.0%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Spanish is notably overrepresented at 1.1% of Ultimo (vs 0.6% regionally), Korean at 1.7% (vs 1.1%) and Russian at 0.6% (vs 0.4%).

Ultimo hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

With a median age of 28, Ultimo is notably under the Greater Sydney figure of 37 and similarly considerably younger than the Australian median of 38. The age profile shows 25 - 34 year-olds are particularly prominent (36.5%), while the 5 - 14 group is comparatively smaller (3.0%) than in Greater Sydney. This 25 - 34 concentration is well above the national 14.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows a rejuvenation is evident as the median age fell from 30 to 28 years. Key changes show the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 20.6% to 29.1% of the population. Conversely, the 35 to 44 cohort has declined from 17.3% to 14.0% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 8.1% to 5.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Ultimo. The 45 to 54 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 205%, adding 1,219 residents to reach 1,815. On the other hand, the 25 to 34 group will contract by 709 residents.