Ultimo

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ultimo reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the estimated population of Ultimo as of Feb 2026 is around 10,044. This reflects an increase of 2,634 people (35.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,410 people. The change was inferred from the resident population estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 17,935 persons per square kilometer, placing Ultimo in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Ultimo's 35.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeded both the state (7.8%) and Greater Sydney figures, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 97.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, a significant population increase in Ultimo is forecast, with an expected expansion of 3,534 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 35.2% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ultimo according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates virtually no dwelling approvals in Ultimo over the past five financial years, with three homes approved between FY21-FY25 and one so far in FY26. This results in an average of 377.3 new residents arriving per year for each dwelling constructed during this period, indicating significant demand outpacing supply, which typically drives up prices and intensifies competition among buyers. Commercial approvals totaling $6.6 million have been registered in Ultimo this financial year, underscoring the area's predominantly residential nature.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Ultimo has considerably less development activity, supporting stronger demand and values for established homes despite recent increases in development activity. Nationally, Ultimo's development activity is also lower, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. All new construction in Ultimo consists of standalone homes, maintaining the area's suburban character and attracting space-seeking buyers. This focus on detached housing contrasts with current patterns (0.0% at Census), reflecting robust demand for family homes despite density pressures. With approximately 9680 people per dwelling approval, Ultimo reflects a highly mature market.

Ultimo has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 18 such projects that could impact the area. Notable projects include Powerhouse Ultimo Renewal, apt.Broadway, DigiCo SYD1 Data Centre Expansion (88MW D&O Project), and The Post House. Below is a list of those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Ultimo shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Ultimo has a highly educated workforce, with the technology sector prominent. Its unemployment rate is 2.8%, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Employment stability over the past year is evident, based on AreaSearch data aggregation from statistical areas.

As of September 2025, Ultimo has 6,117 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 1.4% below Greater Sydney's rate. Workforce participation is lower at 66.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. Census data shows 47.8% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries are professional & technical, accommodation & food, and education & training.

Ultimo specializes in accommodation & food employment, with a share 2.6 times the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance employs only 8.3% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 14.1%. The area hosts more jobs than residents, with 2.0 workers per resident at Census time. Over the past year, employment increased by 0.3%, while labour force decreased by 0.3%, leading to a 0.6 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.1% and unemployment increase slightly. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ultimo's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Ultimo suburb's income level is below national average per AreaSearch ATO data FY2023. Ultimo median income $41,108, average $61,333 compared to Greater Sydney's $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Estimated incomes by Sep 2025: median $44,750, average $66,767 based on 8.86% Wage Price Index growth since FY2023. Ultimo household, family, personal incomes rank modestly (43rd-53rd percentiles) as per 2021 Census. Income bracket $1,500-$2,999 dominates with 32.7% residents (3,284 people), aligning with regional cohort at 30.9%. Housing affordability severe; only 75.4% income remains (43rd percentile). Ultimo SEIFA income ranking is in 7th decile.

Ultimo features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ultimo's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 0.2% houses and 99.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Sydney metro's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ultimo stood at 13.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 13.4% and rented ones at 73.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,500, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Ultimo was $500, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Ultimo's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,500 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Ultimo features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 45.4% of all households, including 10.5% couples with children, 27.1% couples without children, and 5.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 54.6%, with lone person households at 36.6% and group households comprising 18.1%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Ultimo demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Ultimo's residents aged 15+ have a higher educational attainment than broader benchmarks. 57.2% hold university qualifications compared to Australia's 30.4% and NSW's 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 36.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (18.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational pathways account for 19.6%, with advanced diplomas at 12.0% and certificates at 7.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 45.6% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 24.0% in tertiary education, 2.7% in primary education, and 1.6% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis shows 14 active transport stops operating in Ultimo, consisting of buses. These stops are served by 34 routes, collectively providing 10,627 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 136 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Walking is common at 26%, with train use at 22%. Vehicle ownership averages 0.2 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 47.8% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 1,518 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 759 weekly trips per stop.

Ultimo's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Ultimo's health outcomes show excellent results according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of Ultimo's total population (~5,143 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney. Mental health issues and asthma were found to be the most common medical conditions, impacting 5.8% and 4.8% of residents respectively. 85.5% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, higher than Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Ultimo has 5.2% of residents aged 65 and over (522 people), lower than Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Ultimo is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ultimo has a population where 62.7% speak a language other than English at home, with 71.2% born overseas. Christianity is the main religion in Ultimo, comprising 22.2%. Buddhism is notably overrepresented, making up 13.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's average of 4.1%.

In terms of ancestry, Chinese comprise 27.7%, Other 24.2%, and English 11.9%. These figures are substantially higher than the regional averages except for English, which is notably lower at 11.9% versus 19.0%. Spanish (1.1%), Korean (1.7%), and Russian (0.6%) are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.6%, 1.1%, and 0.4% respectively.

Ultimo hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Ultimo's median age is 28, which is lower than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's median of 38. The age profile indicates that individuals aged 25-34 are particularly prominent at 36.5%, while those aged 5-14 are comparatively smaller at 3.0% compared to Greater Sydney. This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is well above the national figure of 14.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows a rejuvenation with the median age falling from 30 to 28 years. Key changes include the growth of the 15-24 age group from 20.6% to 29.1%, while the 35-44 cohort declined from 17.3% to 14.0% and the 45-54 group dropped from 8.1% to 5.9%. Population forecasts for Ultimo in 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes, with the 45-54 cohort projected to grow by 206%, adding 1,222 residents to reach 1,815. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is expected to contract by 712 residents.