Ultimo

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ultimo reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Ultimo statistical area (Lv2) was estimated at around 10,044 as of Nov 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 2,634 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 7,410 people in the Ultimo (SA2). The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 17,935 persons per square kilometer, placing Ultimo in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Ultimo's growth rate of 35.5% since the 2021 census exceeded both the state (7.6%) and metropolitan area averages, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 97.0% of overall population gains during recent periods for Ultimo.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to Ultimo for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, a population increase of 3,534 persons is forecasted for Ultimo by 2041, reflecting a gain of 35.2% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ultimo according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Ultimo had virtually no dwelling approvals in recent years. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 3 homes were approved, with 1 more approved so far in FY-26. This results in approximately 9680 people per dwelling approval, indicating a highly mature market.

Over the past five financial years, Ultimo saw an average of 377.3 new residents arriving per year for each dwelling constructed, demonstrating significant demand outpacing supply and potentially putting upward pressure on prices and increasing competition among buyers. In contrast to Greater Sydney, Ultimo has significantly less development activity, which generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. However, development activity has picked up in recent periods. Nationally, Ultimo's development activity is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. All new construction in Ultimo during this period comprised standalone homes, preserving the area's suburban nature and attracting space-seeking buyers despite increasing density pressures. This focus on detached housing is more pronounced than current patterns suggest (0.0% at Census). Additionally, $6.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, highlighting the area's primarily residential nature.

Ultimo has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

A total of 18 infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. Notable projects include Powerhouse Ultimo Renewal, apt.Broadway, DigiCo SYD1 Data Centre Expansion (88MW D&O Project), and The Post House. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

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The labour market in Ultimo shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Ultimo's workforce is highly educated with a notable presence in the technology sector. The unemployment rate stands at 2.8%, indicating relative employment stability over the past year according to AreaSearch data aggregation.

As of September 2025, Ultimo has 6,117 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.4% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is at 63.3%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries for employment among residents are professional & technical services, accommodation & food, and education & training. Ultimo specializes in the accommodation & food industry with an employment share 2.6 times the regional level, while health care & social assistance employs only 8.3% of local workers, lower than Greater Sydney's 14.1%.

The area functions as an employment hub with a ratio of 2.0 workers per resident, hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from nearby areas. Over the past year, Ultimo saw employment increase by 0.3% while the labour force decreased by 0.3%, leading to a fall in unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced an employment rise of 2.1%, labour force growth of 2.4%, and a slight unemployment increase of 0.2 percentage points. State-level data from NSW as of 25-Nov shows employment contracted by 0.03% with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but industry-specific projections suggest Ultimo's employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years based on its current employment mix.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Ultimo's median income among taxpayers is $41,108 according to AreaSearch data from financial year 2023. The suburb's average income stands at $61,333 during the same period. Greater Sydney's median and average incomes are $60,817 and $83,003 respectively in the same year. By September 2025, Ultimo's estimated median income is approximately $44,750 and average income is around $66,767 based on an 8.86% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. The 2021 Census places household, family, and personal incomes in Ultimo between the 43rd and 53rd percentiles. Most residents (32.7%) fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 income bracket, with 3,284 people in this category. Housing affordability is severe, with only 75.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 43rd percentile. Ultimo's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Ultimo features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ultimo's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 0.2% houses and 99.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Sydney metro's 2.3% houses and 97.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ultimo was at 13.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 13.4% and rented ones at 73.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,500, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,705. The median weekly rent in Ultimo was $500, compared to Sydney metro's $550. Nationally, Ultimo's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,500 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Ultimo features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 45.4% of all households, including 10.5% couples with children, 27.1% couples without children, and 5.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 54.6%, with lone person households at 36.6% and group households comprising 18.1%. The median household size is 2.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 1.9.

Ultimo demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Ultimo's educational attainment is notably higher than national and state averages. As of 2021, 57.2% of Ultimo residents aged 15 and above hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% in Australia and 32.2% in New South Wales (NSW). This high level of educational attainment is predominantly composed of Bachelor degrees (36.1%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (18.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational pathways account for 19.6% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas making up 12.0% and certificates accounting for 7.6%.

Educational participation in Ultimo is also high, with 45.6% of residents enrolled in formal education as of the latest available data. This includes 24.0% in tertiary education, 2.7% in primary education, and 1.6% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates 16 active transport stops operating in Ultimo. These are served by a mix of buses, with 34 individual routes providing service. The total weekly passenger trips across these routes is 10,627.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 136 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 1,518 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 664 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ultimo's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Ultimo, with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (around 5,143 people), compared to 68.5% across Greater Sydney.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 5.8 and 4.8% of residents respectively. About 85.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 77.4% across Greater Sydney. Ultimo has 4.9% of residents aged 65 and over (492 people), which is lower than the 9.7% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Ultimo is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ultimo has a population where 62.7% speak a language other than English at home, and 71.2% were born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Ultimo, with 22.2%. Buddhism is significantly higher than the Greater Sydney average, comprising 13.9% of Ultimo's population compared to 7.1%.

In terms of ancestry, Chinese (27.7%) and Other (24.2%) groups are substantially higher than regional averages of 13.0% and 16.1%, respectively. English ancestry is notably lower at 11.9%. Spanish (1.1%), Korean (1.7%), and Russian (0.6%) ethnicities show notable divergences in representation compared to regional averages.

Ultimo hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Ultimo has a median age of 28, which is lower than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's median of 38. The age profile reveals that individuals aged 25-34 are particularly prominent, making up 36.6% of the population, while those aged 5-14 constitute only 3.0%, compared to Greater Sydney. This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. Post-2021 Census data indicates a rejuvenation of Ultimo's population, with the median age falling from 30 to 28 years. Notably, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 20.6% to 29.8%, while the 35 to 44 cohort has declined from 17.3% to 13.7%, and the 45 to 54 group has dropped from 8.1% to 5.8%. Population forecasts for Ultimo in the year 2041 suggest substantial demographic changes, with the 45 to 54 cohort projected to grow by 212%, adding 1,232 residents to reach a total of 1,815. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group is expected to decrease by 722 residents.