Ultimo

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ultimo reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for Ultimo's broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb's estimated population is around 10,534 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 3,124 people (42.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,410 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 10,534, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 18,810 persons per square kilometer, placing Ultimo in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch, making land in the area highly sought after. Ultimo's 42.2% growth since the 2021 Census exceeded both the state (7.1%) and Greater Sydney, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 97.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, significant population increase in the top quartile of statistical areas is forecasted, with Ultimo expected to increase by 2,876 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 27.3% in total over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ultimo according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Ultimo had virtually no dwelling approvals in recent years. Between FY21 and FY25, an estimated 3 homes were approved, with 1 more in FY26 to date. This results in an average of 378 people moving to the area for each dwelling built over these five financial years, indicating significant demand exceeding new supply.

Commercial development approvals totalled $6.6 million this financial year, suggesting limited focus on commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Ultimo has substantially reduced construction levels, supporting stronger demand and values for established homes. However, building activity has accelerated in recent years. This level is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent development consists entirely of standalone homes, preserving Ultimo's suburban nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. Developers are constructing more detached housing than the existing pattern implies (0% at Census), indicating strong demand for family homes despite densification trends. Ultimo has around 9682 people per dwelling approval, reflecting a highly mature market.

Ultimo has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

AreaSearch has identified 20 projects that could impact the area's performance. Key projects include Powerhouse Ultimo Revitalisation, apt.Broadway, DigiCo SYD1 Data Centre Expansion (88MW D&O Project), and Central Place Sydney. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Ultimo demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Ultimo has an educated workforce with notable representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate was 2.8% as of December 2025, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Employment stability has been maintained over the past year.

As of December 2025, 6,134 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.4% below Greater Sydney's rate. Workforce participation in Ultimo was 63.1%, lower than Greater Sydney's 68.8%. Census data showed 47.8% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in professional & technical, accommodation & food, and education & training sectors.

Ultimo has a high concentration in accommodation & food services, with employment levels at 2.6 times the regional average. However, health care & social assistance is under-represented, with only 8.3% of Ultimo's workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 14.1%. The area functions as an employment hub, hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas, with a ratio of 2.0 workers per resident. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 0.3% while labour force decreased by 0.0%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ultimo's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 indicates Ultimo's median income among taxpayers is $41,108, with an average of $61,333. This is below the national average and compares to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $45,350 (median) and $67,663 (average) as of March 2026. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Ultimo, between the 43rd and 53rd percentiles. Income distribution shows that the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 32.7% of the community (3,444 individuals), aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort likewise represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 75.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 43rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Ultimo features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ultimo's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 0.2% houses and 99.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ultimo stood at 13.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 13.4% and rented ones at 73.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,500, exceeding the Sydney metro average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure was $500, higher than Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Ultimo's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Ultimo features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 45.4 percent of all households, including 10.5 percent couples with children, 27.1 percent couples without children, and 5.1 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 54.6 percent, with lone person households at 36.6 percent and group households comprising 18.1 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.1 people, smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Ultimo demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Ultimo's educational attainment is notably higher than national averages. As of 2021, 57.2% of residents aged 15+ have university qualifications, surpassing Australia's 30.4% and NSW's 32.2%. The area's educational advantage is reflected in its high proportion of bachelor degrees (36.1%), postgraduate qualifications (18.9%), and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational pathways account for 19.6%, with advanced diplomas at 12.0% and certificates at 7.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 45.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the 2021 census. This includes 24.0% in tertiary education, 2.7% in primary education, and 1.6% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 14 active stops operating in Ultimo, serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are covered by 34 individual routes, providing a total of 10,627 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 136 meters from the nearest stop. In this primarily residential area, most commuters travel outward. Walking is notably common at 26%, while train use stands at 22%. Vehicle ownership averages 0.2 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 47.8% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 1,518 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 759 weekly trips per stop.

Ultimo's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Ultimo's health outcomes show excellent results based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were very low across all age groups.

Approximately 51% of Ultimo's total population (~5,394 people) had private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%. Mental health issues impacted 5.8% of residents, while asthma affected 4.8%. Around 85.5% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, higher than Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Ultimo has 4.3% of residents aged 65 and over (452 people), lower than Greater Sydney's 15.5%. Health outcomes among seniors in Ultimo are particularly strong, ranking even higher than the general population nationally.

Ultimo is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ultimo has a population where 62.7% speak a language other than English at home, with 71.2% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Ultimo, accounting for 22.2%. Buddhism is significantly higher than the Greater Sydney average at 13.9%, compared to 4.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are Chinese at 27.7%, Other at 24.2%, and English at 11.9%. Spanish (1.1%), Korean (1.7%) and Russian (0.6%) are notably overrepresented in Ultimo compared to regional averages of 0.6%, 1.1% and 0.4% respectively.

Ultimo hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Ultimo's median age is 27 years, which is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Ultimo has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (37.8%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (2.9%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.6%. According to the 2021 Census, Ultimo's median age has decreased by 3.1 years to 27 from its previous figure of 30. The proportion of residents aged 15-24 has increased from 20.6% to 30.8%, while the 25-34 cohort has risen from 35.8% to 37.8%. Conversely, the 35-44 age group has decreased from 17.3% to 13.5%, and the 45-54 age group has dropped from 8.1% to 5.0%. Demographic projections suggest that Ultimo's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the 35-44 age cohort expected to increase substantially, rising by 76% from 1,422 people to 2,505 people. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is projected to decrease by 862 people.