Ultimo

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ultimo reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for Ultimo, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb's population is estimated at around 9,616 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 2,206 people (29.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,410 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 10,044 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 17,171 persons per square kilometer, placing Ultimo in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 29.8% growth since the 2021 census exceeded both state (6.7%) and metropolitan area figures, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 97.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, a significant population increase is forecast for Ultimo, with an expected expansion of 3,534 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 41.2% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ultimo according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Ultimo had virtually no dwelling approvals in recent years. Between FY21 and FY25, an estimated 3 homes were approved, with 1 more in FY26 to date. This results in an average of 377.3 new residents per year arriving per dwelling constructed over the same period.

The significant demand outpacing supply puts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among buyers. In contrast, commercial approvals totaled $59,000 this financial year, reflecting Ultimo's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Ultimo has significantly less development activity, which generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. However, development activity has picked up in recent periods. Nationally, Ultimo's development activity is lower, indicating market maturity and possible development constraints. All new construction in Ultimo comprised standalone homes, preserving its suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. This preference for detached housing is higher than current patterns suggest (0.0% at Census), demonstrating robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures. With around 9680 people per dwelling approval, Ultimo reflects a highly mature market.

Ultimo has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 17 such projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Powerhouse Ultimo Renewal, apt.Broadway, DigiCo SYD1 Data Centre Expansion (88MW D&O Project), and The Post House. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment environment in Ultimo shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Ultimo has a highly educated workforce, with the technology sector being particularly well-represented. Its unemployment rate was 3.1% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.0%.

As of June 2025, Ultimo had 5,982 residents employed, an unemployment rate of 1.1%, and a workforce participation rate of 63.3%. The key industries for employment among residents were professional & technical, accommodation & food, and education & training. Notably, the accommodation & food industry employed 2.6 times more workers than the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance employed only 8.3% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 14.1%.

With a ratio of 2.0 workers per resident, Ultimo functioned as an employment hub hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 1.0% while the labour force grew by 0.6%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6%, the labour force grow by 2.9%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project that Ultimo's employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on industry-specific growth rates applied to Ultimo's employment mix.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Ultimo's median income among taxpayers was $41,108 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $61,333 during the same period. These figures compare to Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856 respectively. By September 2025, Ultimo's estimated median income would be approximately $46,292, with an average income of around $69,067, based on a 12.61% increase since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Ultimo rank modestly, between the 43rd and 53rd percentiles. Income analysis shows that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 32.7% of residents (3,144 people). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 75.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 43rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Ultimo features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ultimo's latest Census data shows 0.2% houses and 99.8% other dwellings, contrasting Sydney metro's 2.3% houses and 97.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ultimo was 13.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 13.4% and rented ones at 73.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,500, lower than Sydney metro's $2,705. Median weekly rent in Ultimo was $500, compared to Sydney metro's $550. Nationally, Ultimo's mortgage repayments are higher at $2,500 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Ultimo features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 45.4% of all households, including 10.5% composed of couples with children, 27.1% consisting of couples without children, and 5.1% headed by single parents. Non-family households make up the remaining 54.6%, with lone person households at 36.6% and group households comprising 18.1%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 1.9.

Ultimo demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Ultimo is notably high, with 57.2% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications. This compares to national figures of 30.4% and state figures of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 36.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (18.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational pathways account for 19.6% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas making up 12.0% and certificates 7.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 45.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 24.0% in tertiary education, 2.7% in primary education, and 1.6% pursuing secondary education. Ultimo's three schools have a combined enrollment of 1,790 students as of the latest data. The area's ICSEA score is 1138, indicating significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement. The educational mix includes one primary school, one secondary school, and one K-12 school. Ultimo functions as an education hub with 18.6 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 7.7, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis reveals 13 active transport stops operating within Ultimo. These stops are serviced by 34 individual routes, collectively providing 9,446 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 136 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 1,349 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 726 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ultimo's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Ultimo has a low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups, as shown by health outcomes data. The area has approximately 51% private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 69.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in Ultimo, affecting 5.8% and 4.8% of residents respectively. Around 85.5% of Ultimo residents report no medical ailments, higher than Greater Sydney's 77.4%. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 4.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 9.7%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Ultimo are strong and align with the general population's health profile.

Ultimo is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ultimo has a population where 62.7% speak a language other than English at home, with 71.2% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Ultimo, comprising 22.2%. Buddhism is significantly overrepresented, making up 13.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's average of 7.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (27.7%), Other (24.2%), and English (11.9%). Notably, Spanish (1.1%) Korean (1.7%), and Russian (0.6%) ethnicities have higher representation in Ultimo than regionally.

Ultimo hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Ultimo has a median age of 28, which is lower than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's median of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are particularly prominent at 36.6%, while the 5-14 age group is smaller at 3.0% compared to Greater Sydney. This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is well above the national figure of 14.5%. According to post-2021 Census data, Ultimo has shown rejuvenation with its median age falling from 30 to 28 years. The population changes indicate that the 15-24 age group has grown from 20.6% to 29.8%, while the 35-44 cohort has declined from 17.3% to 13.7% and the 45-54 group has dropped from 8.1% to 5.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 suggest substantial demographic changes in Ultimo, with the 45-54 age cohort projected to grow by 225%, adding 1,257 residents to reach 1,815. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is expected to contract by 565 residents.