Ultimo

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ultimo reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of Ultimo is estimated at around 10,044 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 2,634 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 7,410. The change was inferred from the resident population figure of 10,044, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 17,935 persons per square kilometer, placing Ultimo in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Ultimo's population growth of 35.5% since the 2021 census exceeded both the state (7.8%) and Greater Sydney figures, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 97.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, a significant population increase is forecast for Ultimo, with an expected expansion of 3,535 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 35.2% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ultimo according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ultimo has seen minimal dwelling approvals in recent years. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 3 homes were approved, with another 1 approved so far in FY-26. This results in a significant demand outpacing supply, which can put upward pressure on prices and increase competition among buyers.

Commercial approvals this financial year total $6.6 million, reflecting Ultimo's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Ultimo has less development activity, supporting stronger demand and values for established homes. However, recent periods have seen an increase in development activity. Nationally, Ultimo's development activity is lower, indicating market maturity and possible development constraints. All new construction in Ultimo consists of standalone homes, preserving its suburban nature and attracting space-seeking buyers despite increasing density pressures. With around 9680 people per dwelling approval, Ultimo reflects a highly mature property market.

Ultimo has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects likely affecting the region. Notable projects include Powerhouse Ultimo Renewal, apt.Broadway, DigiCo SYD1 Data Centre Expansion (88MW D&O Project), and The Post House. Below is a list of most relevant projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Ultimo shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Ultimo has a highly educated workforce with significant representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate was 2.8% as of an unspecified past year. As of December 2025, Ultimo's unemployment rate is 1.4% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Ultimo is 66.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. According to Census responses, 47.8% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries employing residents are professional & technical services, accommodation & food, and education & training. Ultimo specializes in accommodation & food, with an employment share 2.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, health care & social assistance employs only 8.3% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 14.1%. There are 2.0 workers per resident, indicating Ultimo functions as an employment hub attracting workers from nearby areas. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment in Ultimo increased by 0.3%, while the labour force decreased by 0.0%, leading to a 0.3 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.2% and unemployment marginally increase. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ultimo's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Ultimo has an income level below the national average, according to the latest Australian Taxation Office (ATO) data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Ultimo is $41,108, while the average income stands at $61,333. In comparison, Greater Sydney's median and average incomes are $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Ultimo would be approximately $44,750 (median) and $66,767 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Ultimo rank modestly, between the 43rd and 53rd percentiles. Income analysis shows that the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 32.7% of residents (3,284 people), aligning with the region where this cohort likewise represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Ultimo, with only 75.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 43rd percentile. The area's Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Ultimo features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ultimo's dwelling structure, as recorded in the latest Census, consisted of 0.2% houses and 99.8% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This differs from Sydney metro's composition of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ultimo stood at 13.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 13.4% and rented dwellings at 73.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,500, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Ultimo's median weekly rent figure was $500, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Ultimo's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Ultimo features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 45.4% of all households, including 10.5% couples with children, 27.1% couples without children, and 5.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 54.6%, with lone person households at 36.6% and group households comprising 18.1%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Ultimo demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Ultimo is significantly higher than broader benchmarks. As of the latest data, 57.2% of residents aged 15 years and over hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.2% in NSW. This educational advantage positions Ultimo strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 36.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (18.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%).

Vocational pathways account for 19.6% of qualifications among those aged 15 years and over, with advanced diplomas making up 12.0% and certificates 7.6%. Educational participation is notably high in Ultimo, with 45.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 24.0% in tertiary education, 2.7% in primary education, and 1.6% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ultimo has 14 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 34 different routes that together facilitate 10,627 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 136 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Ultimo being primarily residential. Walking is the most common mode of travel at 26%, followed by train use at 22%. Vehicle ownership averages 0.2 per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents work from home, with 47.8% doing so (this figure may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions). The service frequency across all routes averages 1,518 trips per day, equating to approximately 759 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ultimo's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Ultimo's health outcomes show excellent results based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were very low across all age groups.

Private health cover was found to be relatively low at approximately 51% of Ultimo's total population (~5,143 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney. Mental health issues and asthma were the most common medical conditions, affecting 5.8% and 4.8% of residents respectively. 85.5% of Ultimo residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. As of March 2021, 5.2% of Ultimo's residents were aged 65 and over (522 people), lower than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors in Ultimo are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Ultimo is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ultimo has a highly diverse population, with 62.7% speaking a language other than English at home and 71.2% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Ultimo, making up 22.2% of its population. Buddhism is significantly overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney's average, comprising 13.9% of Ultimo's population.

In terms of ancestry, Chinese people make up 27.7%, Other groups comprise 24.2%, and English ancestry stands at 11.9%. Spanish (1.1%), Korean (1.7%), and Russian (0.6%) ethnicities are notably more prevalent in Ultimo compared to regional averages of 0.6%, 1.1%, and 0.4% respectively.

Ultimo hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Ultimo's median age was 28 as of 2021, lower than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's median of 38. The age profile showed that those aged 25-34 were particularly prominent at 36.5%, while the 5-14 group was smaller at 3.1% compared to Greater Sydney. This concentration of 25-34 year-olds was well above the national figure of 14.4%. Post-2021 Census data indicated a rejuvenation, with the median age falling from 30 to 28 years. Key changes included the 15-24 age group growing from 20.6% to 29.1%, while the 35-44 cohort declined from 17.3% to 14.0% and the 45-54 group dropped from 8.1% to 5.9%. Population forecasts for Ultimo in 2041 indicated substantial demographic changes, with the 45-54 cohort projected to grow by 206%, adding 1,220 residents to reach 1,813. Conversely, the 25-34 group was forecasted to contract by 712 residents.