Blacktown - South
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Blacktown - South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Blacktown - South's population is 12,816 as of August 2025. This figure shows a 170-person increase since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,646. The change is inferred from an estimated resident population of 12,799 in June 2024 and 29 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 3,814 persons per square kilometer, placing Blacktown - South in the top 10% nationally assessed areas by AreaSearch. The area's 1.3% growth since the census is within 2.6 percentage points of the SA3 area's 3.9%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 70.2% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a 2022 base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a 2021 base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate an increase just below the median nationally, with Blacktown - South expected to expand by 1,264 persons to 2041 based on latest numbers, reflecting a total increase of 9.7% over 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Blacktown - South according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Blacktown - South has averaged approximately 43 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY21 and FY25217 homes were approved, with an additional 12 approved in FY26 as of the present time. The area's population has declined recently, suggesting that new supply has been keeping pace with demand, providing buyers with good choices.

New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $310,000, which is below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers. This financial year, $105,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, demonstrating a predominantly residential focus in the area. Compared to Greater Sydney, Blacktown - South shows approximately 58% of the construction activity per person and ranks at the 57th percentile nationally among areas assessed. This suggests that the area is mature and may be subject to planning constraints.

New development consists of 75% detached houses and 25% attached dwellings, maintaining Blacktown - South's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location has approximately 269 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market. Future projections show Blacktown - South adding around 1,245 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Blacktown - South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects likely impacting the area. Key projects are The Rise Pemulwuy, Blacktown Quarter, Prospect Highway Upgrade, and Children's Hospital at Westmead Stage 2 Redevelopment. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The employment landscape in Blacktown - South shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Blacktown - South has an educated workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate is 5.3%, with estimated employment growth of 6.4% over the past year as of June 2025.

There are 7,010 residents in work, and the unemployment rate is 1.1% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is lower at 56.5%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and retail trade. The area has a significant specialization in transport, postal & warehousing (2.1 times the regional level), but lower representation in professional & technical services (5.8% vs 11.5%).

Employment opportunities may be limited locally due to Census data showing fewer working residents than expected based on population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 6.4%, while labour force grew by 6.5%, leading to a slight rise in unemployment (0.1 percentage points). In comparison, Greater Sydney experienced slower growth rates of 2.6% for employment and 2.9% for labour force, with an unemployment rate increase of 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41%, losing 19,270 jobs, while the state unemployment rate was 4.3%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.5% with employment growth of 0.26%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Blacktown - South's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is an illustrative extrapolation and does not account for localized population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Blacktown - South has a median taxpayer income of $49,523 and an average income of $56,673 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2022. This is lower than national averages, with Greater Sydney having a median income of $56,994 and an average income of $80,856. By March 2025, estimates suggest the median income will be approximately $54,772 and the average income will be around $62,680, based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Blacktown - South rank modestly, between the 38th and 52nd percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The largest income segment comprises 36.2% of residents earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly. High housing costs consume 17.9% of income, but disposable income remains at the 50th percentile. Blacktown - South's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Blacktown - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

As reported in the latest Census, dwelling structures in Blacktown - South consisted of 72.2% houses and 27.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metropolitan area had 76.8% houses and 23.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Blacktown - South was at 27.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 36.0% and rented ones at 36.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,043, below Sydney metro's average of $2,167. Median weekly rent figure for Blacktown - South was $400, matching Sydney metro's figure but exceeding the national average of $375. Nationally, Blacktown - South's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863.

Blacktown - South features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 77.2% of all households, including 42.2% couples with children, 19.2% couples without children, and 14.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.8%, with lone person households at 19.3% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.9 people, aligning with Greater Sydney's average.

Blacktown - South performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

In Blacktown - South, 28.4% of residents aged 15+ have university degrees, compared to Greater Sydney's 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 18.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 30.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (18.6%). Educational participation is high, with 32.9% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary (11.0%), secondary (8.4%), and tertiary (6.2%) education. The five schools in Blacktown - South have a combined enrollment of 3,583 students. The area has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1026) with balanced educational opportunities, comprising three primary and two secondary schools serving distinct age groups. It functions as an education hub with 28.0 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 15.7, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows 41 active transport stops operating in Blacktown - South, serving a mix of buses. These stops are served by 26 individual routes, collectively offering 1,694 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 156 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 242 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Blacktown - South is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Blacktown - South shows better-than-average health outcomes with lower prevalence of common health conditions in its general population compared to national averages, but higher rates are seen among older, at-risk cohorts. Only 48% (~6,151 people) have private health cover, which is below the national average of 55.3%.

Asthma and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 6.6% and 6.1% of residents respectively. 74.1% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Sydney's 73.6%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 14.8% (1,892 people). Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Blacktown - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Blacktown-South is one of the most culturally diverse areas in Australia, with 49.2% of its population born overseas and 54.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Blacktown-South, comprising 48.9% of its population. Hinduism is notably overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, with 14.3% of Blacktown-South's population identifying as Hindu versus 14.7% regionally.

The top three ancestry groups in Blacktown-South are Other (26.0%), Australian (14.1%), and English (12.6%). Some ethnic groups show significant variations: Filipino is overrepresented at 6.0%, Indian at 11.1%, and Maltese at 2.3%.

Blacktown - South's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Blacktown - South's median age is nearly 36 years, close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, which is slightly below Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Blacktown - South has a higher percentage of residents aged 15-24 (13.9%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.6%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the percentage of residents aged 15-24 has increased from 13.0% to 13.9%, while the percentage of residents aged 5-14 has decreased from 14.2% to 12.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling predicts significant changes in Blacktown - South's age profile. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 24%, adding 382 residents to reach a total of 1,945. Residents aged 65 and above will contribute to 57% of population growth, indicating demographic aging trends. Conversely, the 25-34 and 0-4 age groups are expected to experience population declines.