Blacktown - South

An assessment of population growth drivers in Blacktown - South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Blacktown - South's population is around 12,918 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 272 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 12,646 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,800 in June 2024 and an additional 64 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,844 persons per square kilometer, placing Blacktown - South in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 2.2% growth since census positions it within 1.9 percentage points of the SA3 area (4.1%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 70.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate an increase just below the national median, with the area expected to expand by 1,264 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall increase of 8.8% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Blacktown - South according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Blacktown - South has averaged approximately 43 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY21 and FY25217 homes were approved, with a further 23 approved in FY26 so far. The population has been declining recently, suggesting that new supply is likely meeting demand, providing good options for buyers.

The average expected construction cost of new homes is $259,000, which is below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing choices. This financial year, $105,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Sydney, Blacktown - South shows around 58% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 57th percentile nationally, reflecting its maturity and possible planning constraints. New developments consist of 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes.

The location has approximately 269 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Future projections estimate Blacktown - South to add 1,143 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Blacktown - South has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified six projects likely impacting the area. Key projects are Prospect Highway Upgrade, Blacktown Quarter, Blacktown City Council WestInvest Program, and Blacktown Health and Education Precinct. The following details projects expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Blacktown - South shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Blacktown - South has a well-educated workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 4.9% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.0%.

As of September 2025, 6,806 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.9%, which is 0.8% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in the area is lower at 56.5% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The dominant employment sectors among Blacktown - South residents include health care & social assistance, transport, postal & warehousing, and retail trade. The area has a particular specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 2.1 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 5.8% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 5.0%, while labour force grew by 4.0%, causing a fall in unemployment rate by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with an increase in unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Blacktown - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Blacktown - South SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $49,523 and an average of $56,673 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was lower than national averages, with Greater Sydney having a median income of $56,994 and an average income of $80,856. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median would be approximately $55,768 and the average $63,819, based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022. In Blacktown - South, household incomes ranked between the 37th and 51st percentiles according to the 2021 Census figures. The largest income segment comprised 36.2% earning $1,500-$2,999 weekly, with 4,676 residents in this bracket. High housing costs consumed 17.9% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 50th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking was in the 4th decile.

Blacktown - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Blacktown - South, as recorded in the latest Census, 72.2% of dwellings were houses with 27.9% being other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, or 'other' dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metropolitan area had 76.8% houses and 23.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Blacktown - South stood at 27.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 36.0% and rented ones at 36.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,043, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,167. The median weekly rent in Blacktown - South was $400, matching the Sydney metro figure but higher than the national average of $375. Nationally, mortgage repayments were lower at $1,863 compared to Blacktown - South.

Blacktown - South features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 77.2 percent of all households, including 42.2 percent couples with children, 19.2 percent couples without children, and 14.0 percent single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.8 percent, with lone person households at 19.3 percent and group households comprising 3.5 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, which matches the Greater Sydney average.

Blacktown - South performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

In Blacktown, as of 15th April 2021, 28.4% of residents aged 15 years or older held university degrees, compared to Greater Sydney's 38.0%. Bachelor degrees were the most common at 18.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials were also prominent with 30.0% of residents aged 15 years or older holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (18.6%). Educational participation was high at 32.9%, with 11.0% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 6.2% pursuing tertiary education as of the same date.

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.0% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 6.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Blacktown - South has 41 active public transport stops, operating buses along 26 routes. These routes facilitate 1,694 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 156 meters to the nearest stop.

Daily service frequency averages 242 trips across all routes, equating to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Blacktown - South is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Blacktown South demonstrates above-average health outcomes, with a low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population compared to national averages. However, older cohorts at risk have higher rates of these conditions.

Private health cover is very low in the area, affecting approximately 48% of the total population (~6,200 people), which is lower than the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, impacting 6.6% and 6.1% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 74.1%, reported being completely free from medical ailments, slightly higher than the Greater Sydney average of 73.6%. As of 2021, 14.8% of residents are aged 65 and over (1,907 people). Health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to presenting challenges compared to the broader population.

Blacktown - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Blacktown-South has high cultural diversity, with 49.2% of its population born overseas and 54.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Blacktown-South, comprising 48.9% of people there. Notably, the 'Other' category represents 7.6%, higher than Greater Sydney's 6.6%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (26.0%), Australian (14.1%), and English (12.6%). Some ethnicities have notable differences: Filipino at 6.0% (vs regional 6.4%), Indian at 11.1% (vs 10.8%), and Maltese at 2.3% (vs 1.9%).

Blacktown - South's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Blacktown - South has a median age of 36 years, nearly matching Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, which is slightly below Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Blacktown - South has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (13.9%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.6%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 has increased from 13.0% to 13.9%, while the proportion of residents aged 5-14 has decreased from 14.2% to 12.9%. By 2041, Blacktown - South's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 45-54 age group is expected to grow by 24%, adding 370 residents to reach a total of 1,945. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 58% of population growth, indicating demographic aging trends. Conversely, the 25-34 and 0-4 age groups are projected to experience population declines.