Toongabbie (NSW)

Population growth drivers in Toongabbie are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Toongabbie's population is estimated at around 16,946 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 769 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,177 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 16,872 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 280 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,582 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Toongabbie has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.5%, outpacing Greater Sydney's population growth during this period. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 76.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, the suburb is expected to grow by 1,646 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of approximately 9.3% in total over the 16 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Toongabbie when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis indicates Toongabbie recorded approximately 107 residential properties granted approval annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 538 homes were approved, with an additional 64 approved in FY-26 so far. Over the past five financial years, an average of 1.9 new residents per year was associated with each dwelling constructed. However, this increased to 6.2 people per dwelling over the past two financial years.

The average construction value for new properties is $496,000, indicating a focus on premium market developments. This financial year has seen $14.2 million in commercial approvals. Building activity shows 49% standalone homes and 51% attached dwellings, suggesting affordable entry pathways for downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers.

Toongabbie's population density is around 333 people per dwelling approval, characteristic of a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the suburb is projected to gain approximately 1,572 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Toongabbie has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 32 projects likely affecting this area. Notable ones include Toongabbie Bridge and Wentworth Avenue Upgrade, Westmead Health Precinct Redevelopment, Toongabbie Town Centre Public Domain Plan, and 21-21A Tucks Road Toongabbie. Below is a list of those most relevant.

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Toongabbie has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Toongabbie has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate is 4.3%, with an estimated employment growth of 2.8% in the past year (AreaSearch aggregation). As of December 2025, there are 9,448 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation is 72.1%, comparable to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. Census data shows that 41.9% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance (30%), professional & technical services (25%), and retail trade (15%).

Education & training has limited presence at 7.3%, compared to the regional average of 8.9%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the difference between working population and resident population counts. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 2.8% while labour force grew by 2.6%, leading to a 0.2 percentage point decrease in unemployment. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%, with a marginal rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Toongabbie's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that Toongabbie had a median income among taxpayers of $56,055 and an average level of $66,965. These figures are approximately national averages, with Greater Sydney having levels of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Considering Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates project the median income to be approximately $61,840 and average income around $73,876 by March 2026. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Toongabbie cluster around the 65th percentile nationally. Income analysis reveals that 35.8% of locals (6,066 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, similar to the surrounding region where 30.9% occupy this category. High housing costs consume 16.6% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 72nd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Toongabbie displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Toongabbie, as per the latest Census, consisted of 59.0% houses and 41.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Toongabbie was at 24.5%, with the rest being mortgaged (39.6%) or rented (35.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Toongabbie was $2,167, lower than Sydney metro's $2,427. The median weekly rent figure was $420, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Toongabbie's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents were substantially above the national average of $375.

Toongabbie features high concentrations of family households and group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 78.7% of all households, including 44.7% couples with children, 21.1% couples without children, and 11.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 21.3%, with lone person households at 17.1% and group households making up 4.1%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Toongabbie shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Toongabbie's residents aged 15+ have a higher proportion with university qualifications (41.3%) compared to Australia (30.4%) and New South Wales (NSW) (32.2%). The area's educational advantage is reflected in the prevalence of bachelor degrees (24.3%), postgraduate qualifications (14.7%), and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 25.5% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.5%) and certificates (15.0%). Educational participation is notably high in Toongabbie, with 32.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (10.3%), secondary education (7.3%), and tertiary education (6.9%).

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Toongabbie has 75 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 57 individual routes, collectively facilitating 8,015 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 160 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 73%, while train accounts for 18%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 41.9% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 1,145 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 106 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Toongabbie is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Toongabbie shows superior health outcomes based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but nears the national average for older, at-risk cohorts.

Private health cover stands at approximately 53% of the total population (~9,052 people), leading the average SA2 area rate but falling short of Greater Sydney's 59.9%. Diabetes and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 6.0% and 5.7% of residents respectively. Notably, 77.0% of residents claim to be completely free of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents exhibit low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 15.0% of residents aged 65 and over (2,541 people), with health outcomes among seniors above average but ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

Toongabbie is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Toongabbie has a high level of cultural diversity, with 58.4% of its residents speaking a language other than English at home and 53.9% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Toongabbie, comprising 42.7% of the population. However, Hinduism is significantly overrepresented, making up 29.5% compared to the Greater Sydney average of 5.2%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (24.9%), Indian (17.3%), and Australian (13.3%). Certain ethnic groups show notable differences: Sri Lankan is overrepresented at 1.7%, Lebanese at 2.3% compared to regional averages of 0.3% and 2.6% respectively, and Maltese at 1.9%.

Toongabbie's population is younger than the national pattern

Toongabbie's median age was 35 years in a certain period, which is slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 years and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The age group of 35-44 years had strong representation at 18.0% compared to Greater Sydney, while the 55-64 cohort was less prevalent at 7.0%. Between 2021 and a certain later period, the 75-84 age group grew from 4.1% to 5.4% of the population. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort declined from 9.4% to 7.0%. Population forecasts for Toongabbie in 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes. The 55-64 age cohort is projected to increase solidly by 458 people (39%) from 1,186 to 1,645. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 5-14 and 0-4 cohorts.