Old Toongabbie

An assessment of population growth drivers in Old Toongabbie reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Old Toongabbie is around 3,380, reflecting a 104-person increase since the 2021 Census figure of 3,276. This growth is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 3,375, based on ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and six validated new addresses since the Census date. The resultant population density is 2,640 persons per square kilometer, placing Old Toongabbie in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch assessments. Overseas migration contributed approximately 84% of overall population gains in recent periods. For projections, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia data for SA2 areas released in 2024 with a 2022 base year, and NSW State Government's SA2-level projections for uncovered areas, released in 2022 with a 2021 base year.

Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Old Toongabbie is expected to increase by approximately 257 persons to reach around 3,637 by 2041, reflecting an 8.3% total increase over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Old Toongabbie according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Old Toongabbie, approximately 12 new homes were approved annually. Between financial years FY-21 and FY-25, around 60 homes were approved, with an additional 4 approved so far in FY-26. Over the past five financial years, an average of 1.5 new residents arrived per new home.

However, this increased to 5.9 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, indicating growing popularity and potential supply constraints. Development projects averaged $487,000 in construction value, aligning with regional trends. Compared to Greater Sydney, Old Toongabbie had substantially reduced construction activity, at 50.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings, which is also under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New building activity showed an equal split between standalone homes (50.0%) and attached dwellings (50.0%), marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns that are currently 84.0% houses. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points, suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. With around 321 people per dwelling approval, Old Toongabbie shows characteristics of a low density area.

According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Old Toongabbie is expected to grow by 281 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Old Toongabbie has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Five projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly. These include Civic Link Pendle Hill, Pendle Hill Active Transport Link (Stage 2), Winston Hills Mall Food Court Renovation, and Fitzwilliam Road and Tucks Road Roundabout Upgrade. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Old Toongabbie rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Old Toongabbie has a well-educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate is 1.4% as of the past year's data from AreaSearch aggregation.

Employment growth over this period was estimated at 3.3%. As of June 2025, there are 2,107 residents in work, and the unemployment rate is 2.8% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation stands at 62.7%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%.

The leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. However, professional & technical services are under-represented with only 7.0% of Old Toongabbie's workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparisons between working population and resident population. In the 12-month period ending Sep-22, employment increased by 3.3%, labour force grew by 3.5%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.2 percentage points. This compares with Greater Sydney's employment growth of 2.6% and labour force expansion of 2.9%, resulting in an unemployment increase of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Old Toongabbie's employment mix indicates local employment could increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, although this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Old Toongabbie's median income among taxpayers is $62,124 and the average is $74,610. This is higher than the national average and compares to Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Old Toongabbie would be approximately $69,958 (median) and $84,018 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Old Toongabbie cluster around the 72nd percentile nationally. Income brackets indicate that 33.4% of locals (1,128 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, which aligns with the region where this cohort likewise represents 30.9%. Economic strength is evident through 33.0% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing accounts for 14.5% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 78th percentile for disposable income and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Old Toongabbie is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Old Toongabbie, as per the latest Census, 84.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 15.7% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Sydney metro's figures of 36.4% houses and 63.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Old Toongabbie stood at 35.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.8% and rented ones at 22.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,200, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,167. Median weekly rent in Old Toongabbie was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $420. Nationally, Old Toongabbie's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,200 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Old Toongabbie features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 78.0% of all households, consisting of 44.1% couples with children, 21.3% couples without children, and 11.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 22.0%, with lone person households at 19.8% and group households at 2.3%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Old Toongabbie exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 30.5%, significantly lower than the SA3 average of 50.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 33.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (21.8%). Educational participation is high at 30.3%, comprising 11.6% in primary, 8.0% in secondary, and 4.9% in tertiary education.

Toongabbie Public School serves the area with an enrollment of 419 students and an ICSEA score of 1065. It offers primary education only; secondary options are available nearby. The area has fewer school places per 100 residents (12.4) than the regional average (18.0), indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 24 active stops operating in Old Toongabbie as of June 2021. These stops offer bus services with a total of 32 routes providing 2,413 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent; residents are typically located 142 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 344 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 100 weekly trips per individual stop as of June 2021.

Old Toongabbie's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance across Old Toongabbie. Prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population and closer to national averages in older, at-risk cohorts.

Private health cover rate is high at approximately 56% of the total population (around 1,906 people), compared to 53.4% across Greater Sydney. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 6.8% and 6.7% of residents respectively. 73.5% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 79.0% in Greater Sydney. Old Toongabbie has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 15.4% (around 520 people), compared to 12.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population, despite being above average.

Old Toongabbie was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Old Toongabbie's population, born overseas, stood at 30.9%. Speaking a language other than English at home was reported by 30.3%. Christianity dominated as the main religion with 62.8%.

Hinduism, while present at 8.3%, was lower compared to Greater Sydney's average of 28.8%. Ancestry wise, Australian origin topped at 23.4% (higher than regional average of 11.8%), followed by English at 18.7% (above the regional average of 12.2%) and Other at 13.7% (lower than the regional average of 23.7%). Notably, Lebanese ethnicity was higher at 4.6%, Hungarian at 0.5%, and Korean at 1.8%, compared to respective regional averages.

Old Toongabbie's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Old Toongabbie is 38 years, close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Old Toongabbie has a higher proportion of residents aged 45-54 (14.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.5%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 11.6% to 12.9%, while the 5 to 14 cohort has decreased from 14.5% to 13.6%. By 2041, Old Toongabbie's population is expected to see significant shifts in its age composition. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 42%, reaching 293 people from 206. Meanwhile, both the 5 to 14 and 0 to 4 age groups are expected to decrease in number.