Old Toongabbie

An assessment of population growth drivers in Old Toongabbie reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the suburb of Old Toongabbie is estimated at around 3,539 as of Feb 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 263 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,276. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 3,368 in Jun 2024 and six validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,764 persons per square kilometer, placing Old Toongabbie in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate of 8.0% since the 2021 census exceeded the state's average of 7.8%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 84.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

Population projections for Old Toongabbie are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a 2022 base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a 2021 base year for areas not covered by the former. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, Old Toongabbie is expected to increase by 257 persons to reach a population of around 3,806 by 2041, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.4% in total over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Old Toongabbie according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Old Toongabbie has seen approximately 11 new homes approved annually, with a total of 58 homes approved between financial years FY21 to FY25. As of FY26, around 7 homes have been approved so far. On average, about 1.7 new residents per year arrived for each new home over the past five financial years, indicating balanced supply and demand conditions. However, this ratio has increased to 4.9 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing popularity of the area and potential supply constraints.

Development projects in Old Toongabbie have an average construction value of $487,000, targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This year, there have been $8.2 million in commercial approvals, indicating limited focus on commercial development compared to residential. Compared to Greater Sydney, Old Toongabbie has significantly less development activity, 52.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties, reflecting the area's maturity and potential planning constraints. Recent construction in Old Toongabbie comprises 50.0% detached houses and 50.0% attached dwellings, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns (currently 84.0% houses). This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. The location has approximately 270 people per dwelling approval, indicating room for growth.

Future projections estimate Old Toongabbie to add 86 residents by 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Old Toongabbie has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Five projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance: Civic Link Pendle Hill, Pendle Hill Active Transport Link (Stage 2), Winston Hills Mall Food Court Renovation, and Fitzwilliam Road and Tucks Road Roundabout Upgrade. These are considered key projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The exceptional employment performance in Old Toongabbie places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Old Toongabbie's workforce is well-educated with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 1.5% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.5%. As of December 2025, 2,118 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.6%, below Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Workforce participation was 79.2%, higher than Greater Sydney's 70.2%. A high proportion of residents (47.3%) worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key employment industries were health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction.

However, professional & technical services were under-represented at 7.0%, compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the ratio of working population to resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 4.5% and labour force by 4.6%, with unemployment remaining stable. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Old Toongabbie's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.8% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Old Toongabbie had a median taxpayer income of $62,124 and an average income of $74,610 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Nationally, this is high compared to Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Old Toongabbie would be approximately $67,628 (median) and $81,220 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows that incomes in Old Toongabbie cluster around the 72nd percentile nationally. Specifically, 33.4% of the population, which is 1,182 individuals, fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the broader regional trend of 30.9%. Notably, 33.0% earn above $3,000 weekly. Housing expenses account for 14.5% of income. Residents rank within the 78th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Old Toongabbie is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Old Toongabbie's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, comprised 84.2% houses and 15.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Old Toongabbie was at 35.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.8% and rented ones at 22.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,200, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Old Toongabbie was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Old Toongabbie's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,200 against the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Old Toongabbie features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 78.0% of all households, including 44.1% couples with children, 21.3% couples without children, and 11.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.0%, with lone person households at 19.8% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Old Toongabbie exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 30.5%, significantly lower than the SA3 area average of 50.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 33.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (21.8%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 11.6% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 4.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Old Toongabbie has 26 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by 32 different routes, offering a total of 4,107 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically living just 142 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily due to its residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transport for 86% of residents, while buses are used by 7%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 47.3% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Each route serves an average of 586 trips per day, resulting in approximately 157 weekly trips per stop.

Old Toongabbie's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance across Old Toongabbie. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were assessed by AreaSearch, with common health conditions found to be low among the general population, nearing national averages for older, at-risk cohorts.

Private health cover was found to be very high, at approximately 56% of the total population (about 1,996 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions were asthma and arthritis, impacting 6.8 and 6.7% of residents respectively, while 73.5% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents showed low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 16.4% of residents aged 65 and over (580 people). Health outcomes among seniors were above average but ranked lower nationally than the broader population.

Old Toongabbie was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Old Toongabbie's population showed higher cultural diversity compared to most local markets, with 30.9% born overseas and 30.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Old Toongabbie, accounting for 62.8% of its population. Hinduism, however, was more prevalent here (8.3%) compared to Greater Sydney's average (5.2%).

In terms of ancestry, Australians were most represented (23.4%), significantly higher than the regional average of 17.8%. English and Other ancestry groups comprised 18.7% and 13.7% respectively. Notably, Lebanese (4.6%) and Hungarian (0.5%) ethnicities were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 2.6% and 0.3% respectively. Korean ethnicity also showed higher representation at 1.8%, compared to the regional average of 1.1%.

Old Toongabbie's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Old Toongabbie is close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Old Toongabbie has a higher proportion of residents aged 45-54 (14.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.2%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 15-24 has grown from 11.6% to 13.1%, while the population aged 5-14 has declined from 14.5% to 13.6%. By 2041, Old Toongabbie's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 27% (61 people), reaching 288 from 226. Those aged 65 and above are expected to comprise 55% of the population growth, indicating an aging population trend. Conversely, population declines are projected for those aged 25-34 and 0-4 years.