Old Toongabbie

An assessment of population growth drivers in Old Toongabbie reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Old Toongabbie is around 3,539, reflecting an increase of 263 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 3,276. This change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 3,368 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 6 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,764 persons per square kilometer, placing Old Toongabbie in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's population growth of 8.0% since the 2021 census exceeded the state average of 7.8%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 84.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving this growth. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, for covered areas.

For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb of Old Toongabbie is expected to increase its population by 260 persons to reach a total of 3,799 by 2041. This reflects an overall increase of approximately 3.6% over the 17-year period from 2026 to 2041.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Old Toongabbie according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Old Toongabbie saw approximately 11 new homes approved annually, with a total of 58 homes approved between financial years FY21 to FY25, and 6 so far in FY26. On average, 1.6 new residents arrived per new home over the past five financial years, indicating balanced supply and demand conditions. However, this ratio has increased to 4.9 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing popularity and potential supply constraints. Development projects averaged $487,000 in construction value, targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This year, there have been $8.2 million in commercial approvals, indicating limited commercial development focus compared to Greater Sydney, where Old Toongabbie has 52.0% less development activity per person. Recent construction comprises 50.0% detached houses and 50.0% attached dwellings, marking a significant shift from the existing housing pattern of 84.0% houses. The location has approximately 270 people per dwelling approval, indicating room for growth. Future projections estimate Old Toongabbie to add 127 residents by 2041 based on current development patterns.

Future projections show Old Toongabbie adding 127 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Old Toongabbie has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Five infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. These include Civic Link Pendle Hill, Pendle Hill Active Transport Link (Stage 2), Winston Hills Mall Food Court Renovation, and Fitzwilliam Road and Tucks Road Roundabout Upgrade. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The exceptional employment performance in Old Toongabbie places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Old Toongabbie has an educated workforce with strong professional services representation. Its unemployment rate was 1.5% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 3.4%. As of September 2025, 2,104 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 2.6% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation was 78.7%, higher than Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 47.3% of residents worked from home. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction.

However, professional & technical services were under-represented at 7.0% compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 3.4%, labour force by 3.6%, resulting in a 0.2 percentage point unemployment rise. In contrast, Greater Sydney had employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Old Toongabbie's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Old Toongabbie had a median taxpayer income of $62,124 and an average income of $74,610 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. Nationally, this is high compared to Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $67,628 and the average income $81,220, based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023. Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Old Toongabbie are at the 72nd percentile nationally. In this suburb, 33.4% (1,182 individuals) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, aligning with regional trends of 30.9%. Notably, 33.0% earn above $3,000 weekly. Housing expenses consume 14.5% of income. Residents rank in the 78th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Old Toongabbie is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Old Toongabbie, as per the latest Census data, 84.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 15.7% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types. This is compared to Sydney metropolitan areas where 55.9% of dwellings are houses and 44.1% are other types. Home ownership in Old Toongabbie stood at 35.3%, with mortgaged properties at 41.8% and rented ones at 22.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,200, lower than the Sydney metro average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Old Toongabbie was $450, slightly higher than the Sydney metro figure of $470. Nationally, Old Toongabbie's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Old Toongabbie features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 78.0% of all households, including 44.1% couples with children, 21.3% couples without children, and 11.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.0%, with lone person households at 19.8% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Old Toongabbie exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 30.5%, significantly lower than the SA3 area average of 50.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 20.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 33.3% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (21.8%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.6% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 4.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows that there are 26 active public transport stops in Old Toongabbie, all of which offer bus services. These stops are served by a total of 32 different routes, providing a combined weekly passenger trip count of 4,107. The accessibility to these transport options is rated as excellent, with residents typically residing just 142 meters from the nearest stop. As predominantly a residential area, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation for 86% of residents, while buses are used by 7%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling in Old Toongabbie, surpassing the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a significant proportion (47.3%) of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages out to 586 trips per day, translating to approximately 157 weekly trips per individual stop.

Old Toongabbie's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Old Toongabbie. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low among the general population, nearing the nation's average across older, at-risk cohorts.

The rate of private health cover was very high, approximately 56% of the total population (around 1,996 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions were asthma and arthritis, impacting 6.8 and 6.7% of residents respectively. 73.5% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. The area had 15.9% of residents aged 65 and over (562 people). Health outcomes among seniors were above average but ranked lower nationally than the broader population.

Old Toongabbie was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Old Toongabbie exhibited greater cultural diversity than most local markets, with 30.9% of its population born overseas and 30.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Old Toongabbie, comprising 62.8% of its population. However, Hinduism showed significant overrepresentation, making up 8.3% compared to Greater Sydney's average of 5.2%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (23.4%), English (18.7%), and Other (13.7%). Notably, Lebanese (4.6%) Hungarian (0.5%), and Korean (1.8%) ethnicities were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 2.6%, 0.3%, and 1.1% respectively.

Old Toongabbie's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Old Toongabbie was 38 years in 2021, close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Old Toongabbie had a higher proportion of residents aged 45-54 (14.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.3%). Between the 2016 Census and the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 increased from 11.6% to 13.2%, while the proportion of residents aged 5-14 decreased from 14.5% to 13.7%. By 2041, Old Toongabbie's age composition is expected to change significantly. The number of residents aged 75-84 is projected to grow by 35%, from 219 to 296. Those aged 65 and above are expected to comprise 54% of the population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for residents aged 25-34 and those aged 0-4 years.