Old Toongabbie

An assessment of population growth drivers in Old Toongabbie reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of the Old Toongabbie statistical area (Lv2) is around 3,540. This reflects an increase of 264 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,276. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 3,368 as of June 2024, along with six validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,765 persons per square kilometer, placing Old Toongabbie in the upper quartile relative to other locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's population growth rate of 8.1% since the 2021 census exceeded the state average of 7.6%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 84.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where applicable, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Based on these aggregations, the Old Toongabbie (SA2) is expected to increase by 259 persons by 2041, reflecting an overall increase of approximately 3.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Old Toongabbie according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Old Toongabbie has seen approximately 11 new homes approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 58 homes were approved, with a further 6 approved in FY-26. On average, about 1.6 new residents arrived per new home over the past five financial years. However, this figure has increased to 4.9 people per dwelling over the past two years, indicating growing popularity and potential supply constraints.

The average construction value of development projects is $487,000, suggesting a focus on premium market segments. This year, there have been $8.2 million in commercial approvals, reflecting limited commercial development activity compared to Greater Sydney's 52.0% higher regional average per person. Old Toongabbie's lower than average new supply supports stronger demand and values for established properties nationally. Recent construction comprises 50.0% detached houses and 50.0% attached dwellings, marking a significant shift from the existing housing pattern of 84.0% houses. The location has approximately 270 people per dwelling approval, indicating room for growth. Future projections estimate Old Toongabbie to add 123 residents by 2041 based on current development patterns, suggesting new housing supply should readily meet demand and potentially facilitate population growth beyond current projections.

Future projections show Old Toongabbie adding 123 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Old Toongabbie has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Five projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance: Civic Link Pendle Hill, Pendle Hill Active Transport Link (Stage 2), Winston Hills Mall Food Court Renovation, and Fitzwilliam Road and Tucks Road Roundabout Upgrade.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The exceptional employment performance in Old Toongabbie places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Old Toongabbie has a well-educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate is 1.5% and there was an estimated employment growth of 3.4% over the past year based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, 2,111 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.6% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is at 62.7%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented with only 7.0% of Old Toongabbie's workforce compared to 11.5% in Greater Sydney. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data for the wider area, aggregated from statistical area data during the year to September 2025, employment levels increased by 3.4% and labour force increased by 3.6%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a 0.2 percentage point rise. State-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer further insight into potential future demand within Old Toongabbie. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Old Toongabbie's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, noting this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Old Toongabbie had a median taxpayer income of $62,124 and an average income of $74,610 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. Nationally, this is high compared to Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. By September 2025, estimates suggest a median income of approximately $67,628 and an average income of $81,220, based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since the financial year 2023. In Old Toongabbie, incomes cluster around the 72nd percentile nationally. Census data shows that 33.4% of the population (1,182 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, similar to broader trends across regional levels at 30.9%. Notably, 33.0% earn above $3,000 weekly. Housing accounts for 14.5% of income, with residents ranking in the 78th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Old Toongabbie is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Old Toongabbie, as per the latest Census data, 84.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 15.7% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types. In contrast, Sydney metropolitan area had 36.4% houses and 63.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Old Toongabbie stood at 35.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.8% and rented ones at 22.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,200, higher than Sydney's average of $2,167. The median weekly rent was $450, compared to Sydney's $420. Nationally, Old Toongabbie's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,200 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Old Toongabbie features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 78.0% of all households, including 44.1% couples with children, 21.3% couples without children, and 11.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.0%, with lone person households at 19.8% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Old Toongabbie exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 30.5%, significantly lower than the SA3 area average of 50.2%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 20.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are held by 33.3% of residents aged 15+, including advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (21.8%). Educational participation is high, with 30.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.6% in primary, 8.0% in secondary, and 4.9% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 26 active transport stops operating in Old Toongabbie, consisting of a mix of buses. These stops are served by 32 individual routes, collectively providing 4,107 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 142 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 586 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 157 weekly trips per individual stop.

Old Toongabbie's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Old Toongabbie.

The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population and near the nation's average across older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very high, approximately 56% of the total population (around 1,996 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and arthritis, impacting 6.8% and 6.7% of residents respectively. Seventy-three point five percent of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 79.0% across Greater Sydney. Old Toongabbie has 15.5% of residents aged 65 and over (548 people), which is higher than the 12.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those among the broader population, despite being above average.

Old Toongabbie was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Old Toongabbie had a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 30.9% of its population born overseas and 30.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the dominant religion in Old Toongabbie, making up 62.8% of people there. Hinduism, however, was substantially underrepresented compared to Greater Sydney's average, comprising only 8.3%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (23.4%), English (18.7%), and Other (13.7%). Notably, Lebanese (4.6%) and Hungarian (0.5%) ethnicities were overrepresented in Old Toongabbie compared to regional averages, while Korean was slightly overrepresented at 1.8%.

Old Toongabbie's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Old Toongabbie was close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years at the time of the census. It was also equivalent to the Australian median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Old Toongabbie had a higher proportion of residents aged 45-54 (14.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.5%). Between the censuses of June 2021 and August 2016, the percentage of Old Toongabbie's population aged 15-24 increased from 11.6% to 12.9%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 5-14 decreased from 14.5% to 13.6%. By 2041, significant changes in Old Toongabbie's age composition are projected. The number of residents aged 75-84 is expected to grow by 36%, from 215 to 293 people, leading the demographic shift. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above accounting for 53% of the projected growth. Conversely, declines in population are projected for residents aged 25-34 and 5-14 years old.