Ngunnawal
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ngunnawal reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ngunnawal's population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, is approximately 11,182 as of August 2025. This figure represents an increase of 225 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 10,957. The increase is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 11,060 in June 2024 and an additional 47 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 2,688 persons per square kilometer, placing Ngunnawal in the upper quartile relative to other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Natural growth drove primary population growth, contributing around 64.8% of overall gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered post-2032, ACT Government's SA2 area projections with a 2022 base are adopted. Projections indicate an overall population decline by 771 persons to 2041, but specific age cohorts like the 65 to 74 group are expected to grow, with a projected increase of 124 people in this period.

The level of residential development activity in Ngunnawal is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Ngunnawal has seen approximately 9 new homes approved annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, with 46 dwellings approved between FY21 and FY25. As of FY26, no dwellings have been recorded so far.

The area has experienced population decline, making its development activity adequate relative to its size, which may benefit buyers. New dwellings are developed at an average construction cost value of $285,000, in line with regional trends. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Ngunnawal shows significantly reduced construction activity, being 92.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. However, building activity has accelerated in recent years, although it remains under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. Recent development has been entirely comprised of medium and high-density housing, marking a significant departure from existing housing patterns, which are currently 67.0% houses.

This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. With population expected to remain stable or decline, Ngunnawal should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Ngunnawal has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 23rdth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 25 projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives include Gold Creek Homestead Precinct, Casey Health Centre (North Gungahlin Health Centre), Casey Emergency Services Station, and Casey Indoor Sports Facility. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Ngunnawal has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Ngunnawal has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 4.0% and it experienced a 1.9% employment growth over the past year ending June 2025.

As of that month, 6,372 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.6% higher than the Australian Capital Territory's (ACT) rate of 3.4%. Workforce participation in Ngunnawal is 72.8%, slightly higher than ACT's 69.6%. The dominant employment sectors include public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Notably, construction has a high employment share at 1.3 times the regional level.

However, public administration & safety is under-represented with only 26.7% of Ngunnawal's workforce compared to ACT's 30.4%. Over the year ending June 2025, employment increased by 1.9%, labour force grew by 1.6%, and unemployment fell by 0.3 percentage points. These changes mirror ACT's figures for the same period. In contrast, state-level data to Sep-25 shows ACT employment contracted by 0.33% (losing 1,480 jobs), with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, compared to a national rate of 4.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia's forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ngunnawal's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Ngunnawal had a median taxpayer income of $62,934 and an average of $72,878 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is higher than the Australian Capital Territory's median income of $68,678 and average income of $83,634. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.78% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of March 2025 would be approximately $69,718 (median) and $80,734 (average). Census data shows household, family and personal incomes in Ngunnawal rank highly nationally, between the 79th and 87th percentiles. The earnings profile indicates that 39.5% of locals (4,416 people) earn between $1,500 - 2,999 per week, similar to the metropolitan region where 34.3% fall into this bracket. The district exhibits significant affluence with 30.9% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 15.9% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 79th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Ngunnawal displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Ngunnawal, as evaluated at the Census conducted on 28 August 2016, comprised 67.4% houses and 32.6% other dwellings including semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to the Australian Capital Territory's figures of 66.3% houses and 33.7% other dwellings from the same Census date. Home ownership in Ngunnawal stood at 21.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 51.2% and rented dwellings at 27.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Ngunnawal was $1,950, lower than the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,123 recorded in the same Census year. The median weekly rent figure for Ngunnawal was $450, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's $462 and the national average of $375.

Ngunnawal has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.3% of all households, including 35.9% couples with children, 23.2% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 27.7%, with lone person households at 24.4% and group households comprising 3.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.9.

Ngunnawal shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Ngunnawal trail regional benchmarks, with 37.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to the SA4 region's 46.8%. This gap suggests potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 22.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.7%) and graduate diplomas (4.0%). Trade and technical skills also feature prominently, with 30.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.3%) and certificates (19.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 6.6% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education. Ngunnawal Primary School provides local educational services within Ngunnawal, with an enrollment of 606 students as of the latest data. The school demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1043) with balanced educational opportunities. It focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. Limited local school capacity (5.4 places per 100 residents vs 14.7 regionally) means many families travel to nearby areas for schooling.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 65 operational public transport stops in Ngunnawal, featuring a variety of bus routes. These stops are served by 10 individual routes, offering a total of 1,224 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is deemed excellent, with residents situated an average of 171 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 174 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ngunnawal's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data shows relatively positive outcomes for Ngunnawal residents. The prevalence of common health conditions is quite low among the general population but higher than the national average among older and at-risk cohorts.

Approximately 56% (~6,261 people) have private health cover, compared to 58.6% across the Australian Capital Territory. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 9.8 and 9.3% of residents respectively. About 69.0% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 76.4% across the Australian Capital Territory. The area has 11.9% of residents aged 65 and over (1,331 people), higher than the 8.3% in the Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges requiring more attention than the broader population.

Ngunnawal was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ngunnawal had a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 28.7% of its population born overseas and 28.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Ngunnawal, making up 41.3% of the population. The 'Other' religious category comprised 2.5% of the population, slightly higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.7%.

The top three ancestral groups were Australian (23.9%), English (22.4%), and Other (13.8%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Croatian was equally represented at 1.3%, Hungarian was overrepresented at 0.4% compared to the regional average of 0.2%, and Korean was underrepresented at 0.7% compared to the regional average of 1.2%.

Ngunnawal hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Ngunnawal's median age is 34 years, comparable to the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 years, and lower than the national average of 38 years. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Ngunnawal has a higher percentage of residents aged 35-44 (17.7%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (10.6%). According to post-2021 Census data, the age group 75-84 increased from 3.7% to 4.7%, while the age group 15-24 decreased from 11.5% to 10.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Ngunnawal's age profile will change significantly. The age group 65-74 is projected to grow by 15%, adding 105 residents to reach 786. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 70% of the population growth, with declines projected for the age groups 75-84 and 15-24.