Ngunnawal

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ngunnawal reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Ngunnawal's population is around 11,192 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 235 people (2.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,957 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,060 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 51 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,690 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, which contributed approximately 64.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections, with 2022 as a base, are adopted. Considering the projected demographic shifts, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the area's population expected to contract by 771 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 65 to 74 age group, which is projected to grow by 124 people. See the age section for more details.

The level of residential development activity in Ngunnawal is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Ngunnawal has seen around 9 new homes approved annually, totalling 46 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 1 approval has been recorded. With population declining over recent years, development activity has been adequate in relative terms, a positive for buyers, while new dwellings are developed at an average construction cost of $281,000.

When measured against the Australian Capital Territory, Ngunnawal records markedly lower building activity (92.0% below regional average per person). This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties, though building activity has accelerated in recent years. This activity is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. Further, new construction has been completely comprised of townhouses or apartments. This skew toward compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 67.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options.

With the population expected to remain stable or decline, Ngunnawal should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Ngunnawal has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 19thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 24 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Gold Creek Homestead Precinct, North Gungahlin Community Health Centre, Casey Emergency Services Station, and Casey Indoor Sports Facility, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Ngunnawal shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Ngunnawal has a well-educated workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 4.5%, and 0.9% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 6,257 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 0.7% above the Australian Capital Territory's rate of 3.8%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (74.8% compared to the Australian Capital Territory's 72.6%). Based on Census responses, a low 11.1% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area has a particular employment specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. On the other hand, public administration & safety is under-represented, with only 26.7% of Ngunnawal's workforce compared to 30.4% in the Australian Capital Territory. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.9% and the labour force increased by 1.0%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.1 percentage points. This compares to the Australian Capital Territory, where employment grew by 0.9%, the labour force expanded by 1.2%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Ngunnawal. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Ngunnawal's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.0% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The Ngunnawal SA2's income level is very high nationally according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Ngunnawal SA2's median income among taxpayers is $66,029 and the average income stands at $74,818, which compares to figures for the Australian Capital Territory of $72,206 and $85,981 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.26% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $72,143 (median) and $81,746 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Ngunnawal, between the 79th and 87th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 39.5% of residents (4,420 people), consistent with broader trends across the area showing 34.3% in the same category. The area demonstrates considerable affluence with 30.9% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 15.9% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 78th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Ngunnawal displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Ngunnawal, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 67.4% houses and 32.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to the Australian Capital Territory's 63.3% houses and 36.7% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Ngunnawal was lagging that of the Australian Capital Territory, at 21.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (51.2%) or rented (27.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Australian Capital Territory average at $1,950, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $450, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's $2,080 and $450. Nationally, Ngunnawal's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Ngunnawal has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 72.3% of all households, comprising 35.9% couples with children, 23.2% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 27.7%, with lone person households at 24.4% and group households comprising 3.1% of the total. The median household size of 2.6 people is larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Ngunnawal shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Ngunnawal trail regional benchmarks, with 37.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 46.8% in the SA4 region. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 22.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.7%) and graduate diplomas (4.0%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 30.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.3%) and certificates (19.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.4% of residents aged 15+ currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 6.6% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 65 active transport stops operating within Ngunnawal, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 141 individual routes, collectively providing 6,575 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 171 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 89%, with 5% by bus. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. A relatively low 11.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 939 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 101 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Ngunnawal is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Ngunnawal demonstrates above-average health outcomes, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population, though higher than the national average across older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 56% of the total population (~6,278 people), compared to 62.4% across the Australian Capital Territory.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 9.8% and 9.3% of residents, respectively, while 69.0% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 70.2% across the Australian Capital Territory. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 12.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,371 people), which is lower than the 14.3% in the Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ngunnawal was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ngunnawal is more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 28.7% of its population born overseas and 28.3% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Ngunnawal is Christianity, which makes up 41.3% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Other, which comprises 2.5% of the population, compared to 1.4% across the Australian Capital Territory.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Ngunnawal are Australian, comprising 23.9% of the population, English, comprising 22.4% of the population, and Other, comprising 13.8% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Croatian is notably overrepresented at 1.3% of Ngunnawal (vs 0.9% regionally), Serbian at 0.5% (vs 0.4%) and Hungarian at 0.4% (vs 0.3%).

Ngunnawal hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

At 34 years, Ngunnawal's median age is comparable to the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 and significantly lower than the 38-year national average. Relative to the Australian Capital Territory, Ngunnawal has a higher concentration of 35 - 44 residents (17.7%) but fewer 15 - 24 year-olds (10.7%). Post-2021 Census data shows the 55 to 64 age group has grown from 8.6% to 9.9% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 3.7% to 4.8%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 17.9% to 16.9%. Demographic modeling suggests Ngunnawal's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 65 to 74 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 13%, adding 90 residents to reach 786. Demographic aging continues as residents 65 and older represent 82% of anticipated growth. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 75 to 84 and 15 to 24 cohorts.