Ngunnawal
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ngunnawal reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ngunnawal's population is around 11,182 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase from 10,957 people recorded in the 2021 Census. The population was estimated at 11,060 by the ABS as of June 2024, with an additional 47 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to the growth. This results in a density ratio of 2,688 persons per square kilometer, placing Ngunnawal in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Natural growth contributed approximately 64.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

For projections, AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia figures released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered and years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections are adopted. Projections indicate an overall population decline by 771 persons by 2041, with specific age cohorts expected to grow, notably the 65 to 74 age group projected to increase by 124 people.

The level of residential development activity in Ngunnawal is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Ngunnawal has seen around 21 new homes approved annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, with 107 dwellings approved over the past five financial years between FY-20 and FY-25, and 0 recorded so far in FY-26. The area's population decline has led to adequate development activity relative to demand, maintaining a well-balanced housing market with good buyer choice.

New dwellings are developed at an average construction cost of $285,000, in line with regional trends. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Ngunnawal shows substantially reduced construction activity, 92.0% below the regional average per person, suggesting potential planning limitations and supporting stronger demand for established homes. Recent development has focused entirely on medium and high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns, which are currently 67.0% houses. The location has approximately 0 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. With population expected to remain stable or decline, Ngunnawal should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

With population expected to remain stable or decline, Ngunnawal should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Ngunnawal has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 23rdth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 25 projects that may affect the region. Notable ones include Gold Creek Homestead Precinct, Casey Health Centre (North Gungahlin Health Centre), Casey Emergency Services Station, and Casey Indoor Sports Facility. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Ngunnawal has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Ngunnawal has an educated workforce with key sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate was 4.0% in June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.9%. As of June 2025, 6372 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.6%, 1.2 percentage points above the Australian Capital Territory's (ACT) rate of 3.4%. Workforce participation in Ngunnawal was 72.8%, compared to ACT's 69.6%. Key industries for employment among residents were public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

Construction had a particularly high employment share, at 1.3 times the regional level. However, public administration & safety had limited presence with 26.7% employment compared to the regional average of 30.4%. Local employment opportunities appeared limited based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.9%, labour force grew by 1.6%, causing unemployment to fall by 0.3 percentage points. ACT-wide, employment grew by 1.9%, labour force expanded by 1.6%, and unemployment fell by 0.3 percentage points. As of Sep-25, ACT's employment contracted by 0.33% (losing 1480 jobs), with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. National unemployment was 4.5%, with national employment growth at 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but industry-specific projections vary significantly. Applying these projections to Ngunnawal's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.0% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Ngunnawal shows a median taxpayer income of $62,934 and an average of $72,878 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is well above national averages, contrasting with Australian Capital Territory's median income of $68,678 and average income of $83,634. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.78% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $69,718 (median) and $80,734 (average) as of March 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Ngunnawal, between the 79th and 87th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows that 39.5% of residents (4,416 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly income bracket, mirroring the surrounding region where 34.3% occupy this bracket. The locality demonstrates considerable affluence with 30.9% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 15.9% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 79th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Ngunnawal displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Ngunnawal, according to the latest Census data, 67.4% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 32.6% being semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is similar to the Australian Capital Territory's distribution of housing at 66.3% houses and 33.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ngunnawal stood at 21.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 51.2% and rented ones at 27.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, lower than the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,123. Weekly rent in Ngunnawal was recorded at $450, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's $462. Nationally, Ngunnawal's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Ngunnawal has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.3% of all households, including couples with children (35.9%), couples without children (23.2%), and single parent families (12.2%). Non-family households make up 27.7%, comprising lone person households at 24.4% and group households at 3.1%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.9.

Ngunnawal shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Ngunnawal trail regional benchmarks with 37.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 46.8% in SA4 region. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 22.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.7%) and graduate diplomas (4.0%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 30.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.3%) and certificates (19.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 6.6% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education. Ngunnawal Primary School provides local educational services within Ngunnawal, with an enrollment of 606 students as of the latest available data. The school demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1043) with balanced educational opportunities. It focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. Limited local school capacity (5.4 places per 100 residents vs 14.9 regionally) means many families travel to nearby areas for schooling.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The public transport analysis indicates 65 active transport stops within Ngunnawal. These stops offer a mix of bus services, with a total of 10 individual routes operating. The combined weekly passenger trips across all routes amount to 1,224.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically situated 171 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 174 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ngunnawal's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data shows Ngunnawal residents have relatively positive health outcomes. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average among older and at-risk cohorts.

Approximately 56% (~6,261 people) have private health cover, compared to 58.6% across the Australian Capital Territory. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 9.8% and 9.3% of residents respectively. 69.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 76.4% across the Australian Capital Territory. The area has 11.9% of residents aged 65 and over (1,331 people), higher than the 8.3% in the Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Ngunnawal was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ngunnawal's population shows high cultural diversity, with 28.7% born overseas and 28.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Ngunnawal, accounting for 41.3%. The 'Other' religious category comprises 2.5%, slightly higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.7%.

In terms of ancestry, Australians make up 23.9%, followed by English with 22.4% and Other at 13.8%. Notably, Croatians are proportionally equal (1.3%) to the regional average, Hungarians are slightly overrepresented (0.4%), and Koreans are underrepresented (0.7%).

Ngunnawal hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Ngunnawal's median age is 34 years, comparable to the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 and significantly lower than the national average of 38 years. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Ngunnawal has a higher percentage of residents aged 35-44 (17.7%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (10.6%). According to post-2021 Census data, the 75 to 84 age group increased from 3.7% to 4.7% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort decreased from 11.5% to 10.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Ngunnawal's age profile. The 65 to 74 cohort is projected to grow by 15%, adding 105 residents to reach 786. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 70% of the population growth. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 75 to 84 and 15 to 24 cohorts.