Winchelsea

Population growth drivers in Winchelsea are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, Winchelsea's population is estimated at around 2,873, reflecting an increase of 417 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 17.0% increase from the previous population count of 2,456. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 2,587 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 223 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 12.2 persons per square kilometer. Winchelsea's growth exceeded both the non-metro area's 7.9% increase and the national average, marking it as a notable growth leader within its region. Natural growth contributed approximately 45.0% to overall population gains during recent periods, with other factors such as interstate migration also being positive contributors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 using the base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Future trends project an above median population growth for locations outside capital cities, with Winchelsea expected to increase by 467 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 6.6% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Winchelsea among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Winchelsea has seen approximately 36 new homes approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Around 180 homes were approved over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, with an additional 13 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, 1.9 new residents have arrived per new home annually over these five years, indicating a balanced supply and demand market that supports stable conditions.

The average construction value of new properties is $559,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This financial year has seen $2.5 million in commercial approvals, reflecting limited focus on commercial development.

New development consists predominantly of detached houses (87.0%) and a smaller proportion of medium and high-density housing (13.0%), preserving Winchelsea's low-density nature while attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 82 people per dwelling approval, Winchelsea exhibits characteristics of a growth area. Future projections estimate an addition of 190 residents by 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Current construction levels should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Winchelsea has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

No changes can significantly affect a region's performance like alterations to its local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could potentially impact this area. Notable projects include Geelong Line Upgrade (Geelong Fast Rail), Geelong Renewable Energy Zone, Telstra InfraCo Intercity Fibre Network, and Additional VLocity Trains, with the following list providing details on those most pertinent.

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While Winchelsea retains a healthy unemployment rate of 3.0%, recent employment declines have impacted its national performance ranking

Winchelsea has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. The unemployment rate is 3.0%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, there are 1,340 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.7% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation matches Rest of Vic.'s figure at 57.4%. Employment is concentrated in healthcare & social assistance, construction, and agriculture, forestry & fishing sectors. Construction employment share is 1.3 times the regional level.

Manufacturing is under-represented with only 6.3% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.7%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census working population vs resident population comparison. In a 12-month period, labour force decreased by 0.4%, employment declined by 0.5%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.2 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts for May-25 estimate a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Winchelsea's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Winchelsea's median income among taxpayers was $46,032 in financial year 2023. The suburb's average income stood at $60,740 during the same period. Comparing these figures with Rest of Vic., Winchelsea's median income was lower by $4,922 and its average income was higher by $1,774. Based on an 8.25% increase since financial year 2023, current estimates for Winchelsea would be approximately $49,830 (median) and $65,751 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household incomes in Winchelsea ranked between the 32nd and 38th percentiles. The income distribution showed that 33.1% of residents earned between $1,500 and $2,999, mirroring regional levels where 30.3% occupied this bracket. Housing affordability pressures were severe in Winchelsea, with only 84.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 33rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 4th decile.

Winchelsea is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with strong rates of outright home ownership

Winchelsea's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.8% houses and 5.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Winchelsea stood at 35.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 44.3% and rented ones at 20.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,560, and the median weekly rent was $295. Compared nationally, Winchelsea's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Winchelsea has a typical household mix, with a median household size of 2.4 people

Family households account for 69.7% of all households, including 28.4% couples with children, 30.6% couples without children, and 9.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 30.3%, with lone person households at 28.5% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people.

Educational attainment in Winchelsea aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.7%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.5%) and certificates (31.5%). Educational participation is high, with 27.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.8% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Winchelsea has two active public transport stops operating, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by two routes combined, providing 70 weekly passenger trips in total. The accessibility of these transport services is limited, with residents typically located 1044 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 10 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 35 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Winchelsea is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Winchelsea faces significant health challenges, as indicated by data from June 20XX to May 20XY.

Common health conditions are prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Approximately 51% of Winchelsea's total population (~1,461 people) have private health cover. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (9.1%) and mental health issues (8.9%). Conversely, 62.4% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 0% in the rest of Victoria. Winchelsea has a senior population of 21.4%, comprising 614 people aged 65 and over. The health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly aligned with those of the general population.

The latest Census data sees Winchelsea placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Winchelsea, surveyed in June 2016, showed low cultural diversity with 89.5% citizens, 90.5% born in Australia, and 97.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 45.5%. Judaism was not present (0.0%).

Ancestry wise, Australian (33.2%), English (32.6%), and Irish (9.5%) were top groups. Scottish (9.0%), Dutch (1.7%), and Maltese (0.7%) were notably overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Winchelsea's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Winchelsea is 40 years, which is slightly below Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 but above Australia's median of 38. The 25-34 cohort is notably over-represented at 15.6%, compared to the Rest of Vic. average, while the 15-24 age group is under-represented at 8.8%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 25-34 age group has grown from 14.1% to 15.6%, and the 75-84 cohort has increased from 6.4% to 7.5%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 13.6% to 11.6%, and the 65-74 group has dropped from 12.5% to 11.4%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Winchelsea. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to expand by 101 people (23%), from 448 to 550. Meanwhile, the 75-84 and 15-24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.