Rose Bay (NSW)

Rose Bay is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, the suburb of Rose Bay (NSW) had an estimated population of 10,397 as of May 2026. This reflected a growth of 486 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,911. The increase was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 10,350 residents following examination of ABS's ERP data release in June 2025 and an additional 164 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 4,109 persons per square kilometer, placing Rose Bay among the top 10% nationally according to AreaSearch. The suburb's 4.9% growth since the census was close to the SA3 area's 5.6%, indicating strong fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2-level projections where applicable, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Looking ahead, population projections suggest an increase just below the median for national statistical areas, with Rose Bay expected to grow by 808 persons to 2041, reflecting a 7.3% total increase over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Rose Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Rose Bay has averaged around 58 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated 292 homes. So far in FY-26 (July 2021 to present), 42 approvals have been recorded. Rose Bay's population has declined during this period, suggesting new supply has likely kept up with demand, offering good choice to buyers.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $2,561,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. This financial year has seen $329.9 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Rose Bay records 98.0% more construction activity per person as of June 2021. Recent construction comprises 30.0% detached dwellings and 70.0% medium and high-density housing, providing accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. With around 233 people per dwelling approval, Rose Bay shows characteristics of a low density area.

Looking ahead, AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects Rose Bay to grow by 761 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Rose Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 43 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include the Kincoppal-Rose Bay School Campus Masterplan, Wilberforce Avenue Car Park Redevelopment, 88-96 Newcastle Street Rose Bay, and Orosi Rose Bay - Residential Development. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Rose Bay demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Rose Bay has a highly educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate is 2.5%, and there was an estimated 3.8% employment growth in the past year according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of December 2025, 6,179 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.7% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation is fairly standard at 71.0%, compared to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. Census responses show that 57.8% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The dominant employment sectors among residents include professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and finance & insurance. Rose Bay has a particularly notable concentration in professional & technical services with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average.

Conversely, manufacturing shows lower representation at 3.0% compared to the regional average of 5.7%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. According to AreaSearch's analysis of SALM and ABS data aggregated from broader statistical areas during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.8% and labour force increased by 3.7%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2%, labour force growth of 2.3%, with unemployment rising marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer further insight into potential future demand within Rose Bay. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Rose Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.5% over five years and 14.8% over ten years, though it is noted that this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Rose Bay's median taxpayer income was $78,436, with an average of $213,359 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This places Rose Bay in the top percentile nationally, compared to Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. By March 2026, estimates suggest a median income of approximately $86,531 and an average of $235,378, based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since the financial year 2023. Census data from 2021 shows Rose Bay's household, family, and personal incomes rank between the 91st and 96th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile indicates that 34.4% of residents (3,576 people) fall into the $4,000+ bracket, contrasting with regional trends where 30.9% earn within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. Rose Bay's affluence is evident, with 45.5% earning over $3,000 per week. High housing costs consume 18.2% of income, yet strong earnings result in disposable income at the 89th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Rose Bay features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Rose Bay's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 20.7% houses and 79.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rose Bay stood at 31.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 24.6% and rented dwellings at 44.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,250, exceeding Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Rose Bay was $630, higher than Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Rose Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Rose Bay features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 65.4% of all households, including 27.2% couples with children, 28.1% couples without children, and 9.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 34.6%, with lone person households at 30.0% and group households comprising 4.5%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Rose Bay demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Rose Bay's residents aged 15+ have a notably high educational attainment, with 54.2% holding university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and NSW's 32.2%. This is particularly evident in Bachelor degrees (36.8%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.7%) and graduate diplomas (3.7%). Vocational pathways make up 21.9%, with advanced diplomas at 11.6% and certificates at 10.3%. Educational participation is high, with 29.5% currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.2% in primary, 7.8% in secondary, and 6.6% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.2% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 6.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Rose Bay has 56 active public transport stops, consisting of both ferry and bus services. These stops are served by 46 different routes, offering a total of 5,799 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 127 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation at 69%, followed by walking at 8% and bus use at 7%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.0 per dwelling, lower than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, specifically 57.8%, work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 828 trips per day, equating to approximately 103 weekly trips per stop.

Rose Bay's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Rose Bay's health outcomes show exceptional results according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 111% of the total population (11,509 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%.

Nationally, it averages 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions in Rose Bay are asthma and arthritis, affecting 6.1% and 5.9% of residents respectively. 76.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. The area has 21.6% of residents aged 65 and over (2,245 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 15.5%. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

Rose Bay was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Rose Bay's cultural diversity is notable, with 20.9% speaking a language other than English at home and 42.3% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 34.8%. However, Judaism is significantly overrepresented at 31.7%, compared to Greater Sydney's average of 0.8%.

For ancestry, the top groups are English (21.5%), Other (17.7%), and Australian (15.6%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: South Australian (5.3% vs regional 0.5%), Polish (2.6% vs 0.6%), and Russian (2.5% vs 0.4%) are overrepresented in Rose Bay.

Rose Bay's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Rose Bay has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. The 75-84 age cohort is notably over-represented in Rose Bay at 8.7%, compared to the Greater Sydney average, while those aged 5-14 are under-represented at 10.2%. Between 2021 and present, the population of individuals aged 15 to 24 has grown from 10.2% to 12.8%, while the 75-84 age cohort increased from 7.2% to 8.7%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group has decreased from 13.4% to 12.1%. Demographic projections indicate significant changes in Rose Bay's age profile by 2041. The 85+ age cohort is projected to grow significantly, expanding by 361 people (94%) from 384 to 746. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 79% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 0-4 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.