Rose Bay (NSW)

Rose Bay is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Rose Bay's population is estimated at around 10,186, reflecting an increase of 275 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 2.8% rise from the previous population count of 9,911. The estimated resident population (ERP) of 10,125 was derived by AreaSearch using ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and validated new addresses since the Census date. This population density equates to approximately 4,026 persons per square kilometer, placing Rose Bay within the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate of 2.8% since the Census is competitive, being within 2.7 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 5.5%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 85.0% to overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former data. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from these aggregations for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Rose Bay's population is projected to increase by approximately 783 persons, reflecting a total growth rate of 6.9% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Rose Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Rose Bay averaged around 58 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years ending FY26. This totals an estimated 294 homes. As of FY26, 16 approvals have been recorded. The area has experienced population decline, suggesting new supply has likely kept up with demand, offering good choice to buyers.

New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $2,654,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY26, there have been $332.9 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Rose Bay records 99.0% more construction activity per person. Recent construction comprises 30.0% detached dwellings and 70.0% medium and high-density housing, appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. With around 292 people per dwelling approval, Rose Bay shows characteristics of a low density area.

According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Rose Bay is expected to grow by 707 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Rose Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 43 projects that are likely to impact the area. Notable projects include the Kincoppal-Rose Bay School Campus Masterplan, Wilberforce Avenue Car Park Redevelopment, 88-96 Newcastle Street Rose Bay, and Orosi Rose Bay - Residential Development. The following list details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Rose Bay demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Rose Bay has a highly educated workforce. Professional services are strongly represented.

The unemployment rate is 2.6%, with an estimated employment growth of 2.4% in the past year (AreaSearch data). As of June 2025, there are 6,126 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.6%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is 63.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The dominant employment sectors include professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and finance & insurance.

Professional & technical jobs are particularly notable, at 1.6 times the regional average. Manufacturing shows lower representation, at 3.0% versus the regional average of 5.7%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.4%, labour force by 2.3%, reducing unemployment by 0.1 percentage points (AreaSearch analysis). By comparison, Greater Sydney had employment growth of 2.6%, labour force growth of 2.9%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand in Rose Bay. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to Rose Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.5% over five years and 14.8% over ten years (simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes).

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Rose Bay has a median taxpayer income of $78,468 and an average income of $213,470 based on the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This places Rose Bay in the top percentile nationally, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. As of September 2025, based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes would be approximately $88,363 (median) and $240,389 (average). Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Rose Bay rank highly nationally, between the 91st and 96th percentiles. The earnings profile indicates that 34.4% of residents (3,503 people) fall into the $4000+ bracket, unlike regional trends where 30.9% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. Rose Bay demonstrates considerable affluence with 45.5% earning over $3,000 per week. High housing costs consume 18.2% of income, but strong earnings still place disposable income at the 89th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Rose Bay features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Rose Bay's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 20.7% houses and 79.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 18.3% houses and 81.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rose Bay was at 31.3%, similar to Sydney metro's level. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (24.6%) or rented (44.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,250, lower than Sydney metro's average of $3,600. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $630, compared to Sydney metro's $670. Nationally, Rose Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Rose Bay features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 65.4% of all households, including 27.2% couples with children, 28.1% couples without children, and 9.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 34.6%, with lone person households at 30.0% and group households making up 4.5%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Rose Bay demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Rose Bay's educational attainment significantly exceeds broader benchmarks, with 54.2% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to Australia's 30.4% and NSW's 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 36.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.7%) and graduate diplomas (3.7%). Vocational pathways account for 21.9%, including advanced diplomas (11.6%) and certificates (10.3%). Educational participation is high, with 29.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: primary (9.2%), secondary (7.8%), and tertiary (6.6%).

Six schools operate within Rose Bay, educating approximately 2,810 students. The area has significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement (ICSEA: 1149). There are three primary, two secondary, and one K-12 school in the area. Rose Bay functions as an education hub with 27.6 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 15.8.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Rose Bay has 48 active public transport stops, a mix of ferry and bus services. These are served by 46 different routes, offering a total of 3582 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located just 128 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 511 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 74 weekly trips per individual stop.

Rose Bay's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Rose Bay shows excellent health outcomes across all age groups, with a very low prevalence of common health conditions. The private health cover rate is exceptionally high at approximately 111%, covering 11,279 people, compared to Greater Sydney's 89.7% and the national average of 55.3%. Asthma and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions in Rose Bay, affecting 6.1 and 5.9% of residents respectively.

A total of 76.0% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 77.6%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 20.8%, with 2,118 people, compared to Greater Sydney's 16.4%. Health outcomes among seniors in Rose Bay are particularly strong, generally aligning with the overall population's health profile.

Rose Bay is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Rose Bay has a high level of cultural diversity, with 20.9% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 42.3% born overseas. The predominant religion in Rose Bay is Christianity, accounting for 34.8% of the population. However, Judaism is significantly overrepresented, comprising 31.7%, compared to the Greater Sydney average of 16.0%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (21.5%), Other (17.7%), and Australian (15.6%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: South African at 5.3% (regional average 2.4%), Polish at 2.6% (1.9%), and Russian at 2.5% (1.6%).

Rose Bay's median age exceeds the national pattern

Rose Bay has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38 years. The 75-84 age cohort is notably over-represented in Rose Bay at 8.4%, compared to the Greater Sydney average, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 14.1%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has grown from 10.2% to 12.5% of the population, and the 75-84 cohort has increased from 7.2% to 8.4%. Conversely, the 45-54 age cohort has declined from 13.4% to 12.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Rose Bay's age profile will change significantly. The 85+ age cohort is projected to increase dramatically by 395 people (121%), from 325 to 721. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 82% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 25-34 and 0-4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.