Rose Bay (NSW)

Rose Bay is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the population of Rose Bay NSW is estimated at around 10,338 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 427 people (4.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,911 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 10,206 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 170 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 4,086 persons per square kilometer, which lies in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch, making land in the area a highly-sought resource. Rose Bay's 4.3% growth since census positions it within 1.7 percentage points of the SA3 area (6.0%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, a population increase just below the median of national statistical areas is expected, with the suburb expected to grow by 805 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 5.5% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Rose Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Rose Bay averaged around 58 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated 292 homes. As of April 2026, 29 approvals have been recorded in the current financial year. The area has experienced population decline, suggesting that new supply has likely kept up with demand, offering good choice to buyers.

New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $2,532,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. There have also been $329.9 million in commercial approvals this financial year, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Rose Bay records 98.0% more construction activity per person as of April 2026. Recent construction comprises 28.0% detached dwellings and 72.0% medium and high-density housing, providing accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. With around 229 people per dwelling approval, Rose Bay shows characteristics of a low density area.

According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate as of April 2026, Rose Bay is expected to grow by 565 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Rose Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 43 projects potentially affecting this region. Notable initiatives include Kincoppal-Rose Bay School Campus Masterplan, Wilberforce Avenue Car Park Redevelopment, 88-96 Newcastle Street Rose Bay, and Orosi Rose Bay - Residential Development. Below is a list of those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Rose Bay shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Rose Bay has a highly educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate was 2.7% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of also 2.7%. As of September 2025, 6,012 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.5% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation was similar to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 57.8% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The dominant employment sectors were professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and finance & insurance. Professional & technical had particularly notable concentration at 1.6 times the regional average, while manufacturing showed lower representation at 3.0% versus the regional average of 5.7%.

Employment opportunities locally appeared limited based on Census working population vs resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.7%, labour force by 2.8%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1% over the same period, labour force growth of 2.4%, with unemployment rising by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Rose Bay. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Rose Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.5% over five years and 14.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The suburb of Rose Bay had a median taxpayer income of $78,436 and an average income of $213,359 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. These figures place Rose Bay among the top percentile nationally, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. By September 2025, based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86%, current estimates would be approximately $85,385 (median) and $232,263 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Rose Bay all rank highly nationally, between the 91st and 96th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 34.4% of residents (3,556 people) fall within the $4,000+ bracket, unlike regional trends where 30.9% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. Rose Bay demonstrates considerable affluence with 45.5% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 18.2% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 89th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Rose Bay features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Rose Bay's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 20.7% houses and 79.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rose Bay was higher than the Sydney metro average at 31.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 24.6% and rented ones at 44.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Rose Bay was $3,250, exceeding Sydney's $2,427. Weekly rent in Rose Bay averaged $630 compared to Sydney's $470. Nationally, Rose Bay's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863 and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Rose Bay features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 65.4% of all households, including 27.2% couples with children, 28.1% couples without children, and 9.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 34.6%, with lone person households at 30.0% and group households comprising 4.5%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Rose Bay demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Rose Bay's residents aged 15+ have higher university qualification rates than Australia and NSW: 54.2%, compared to national (30.4%) and state (32.2%) averages. Bachelor degrees are most common at 36.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.7%) and graduate diplomas (3.7%). Vocational pathways account for 21.9% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 11.6% and certificates at 10.3%. Educational participation is high, with 29.5% currently enrolled: primary education (9.2%), secondary education (7.8%), and tertiary education (6.6%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.2% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 6.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Rose Bay has 56 active public transport stops, including a mix of ferry and bus services. These stops are served by 46 individual routes, collectively facilitating 5,799 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 127 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most commuters travel outward. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 69%, while walking accounts for 8% and bus use is 7%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.0 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 57.8% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 828 trips per day, equating to approximately 103 weekly trips per individual stop.

Rose Bay's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Rose Bay's health outcomes show excellent results according to AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Approximately 111% of Rose Bay's total population (11,444 people) has private health cover, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's 59.9%.

Nationally, the average is 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions in Rose Bay are asthma and arthritis, affecting 6.1% and 5.9% of residents respectively. A total of 76.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Rose Bay has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.7% (2,243 people) than Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Health outcomes among seniors in Rose Bay are particularly strong and rank broadly in line with the general population nationally.

Rose Bay was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Rose Bay has a high level of cultural diversity, with 20.9% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 42.3% born overseas. Christianity is the main religion in Rose Bay, comprising 34.8% of the population. Notably, Judaism is significantly overrepresented in Rose Bay at 31.7%, compared to the Greater Sydney average of 0.8%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (21.5%), Other (17.7%), and Australian (15.6%). There are also notable divergences in certain ethnic groups: South African is overrepresented at 5.3% versus 0.5% regionally, Polish at 2.6% versus 0.6%, and Russian at 2.5% versus 0.4%.

Rose Bay's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Rose Bay has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38 years. The 75-84 age cohort is notably over-represented in Rose Bay at 8.7%, compared to the Greater Sydney average, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 13.8%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 10.2% to 12.8% of the population, while the 75-84 cohort has risen from 7.2% to 8.7%. Conversely, the 45-54 age cohort has declined from 13.4% to 12.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Rose Bay's age profile will change significantly. The 85+ age cohort is projected to grow by 344 people (93%), from 372 to 717. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 83% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 25-34 and 15-24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.