Rose Bay (NSW)

Rose Bay is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, the suburb of Rose Bay (NSW)'s population is estimated at around 10,338 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 427 people (4.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,911 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 10,206 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 170 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 4,086 persons per square kilometer, which lies in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch, making land in the area a highly-sought resource. Rose Bay's 4.3% growth since census positions it within 1.7 percentage points of the SA3 area (6.0%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, a population increase just below the median of national statistical areas is expected, with the suburb of Rose Bay (NSW) expected to grow by 830 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 6.8% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Rose Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis, Rose Bay averaged approximately 58 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated 292 homes. As of July 2026, 30 approvals have been recorded. The area has experienced population decline, with new supply likely keeping up with demand and offering good choice to buyers.

New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $2,561,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment. In the current financial year ending June 2026, there have been $329.9 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Rose Bay records approximately 97.0% more construction activity per person. Recent construction comprises around 30.0% detached dwellings and 70.0% medium and high-density housing, appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. With around 232 people per dwelling approval, Rose Bay shows characteristics of a low density area.

According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Rose Bay is expected to grow by approximately 698 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Rose Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 43 projects that could affect the area. Notable ones include Kincoppal-Rose Bay School Campus Masterplan, Wilberforce Avenue Car Park Redevelopment, 88-96 Newcastle Street Rose Bay, and Orosi Rose Bay - Residential Development. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Rose Bay demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Rose Bay has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 2.5% as of December 2025, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.3%.

Residents' work participation rate is similar to Greater Sydney's at 70.2%. A significant number, 57.8%, were working from home according to Census responses, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Dominant employment sectors include professional & technical services, health care & social assistance, and finance & insurance. The area has a notable concentration in professional & technical services, with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average.

Conversely, manufacturing shows lower representation at 3.0% compared to the regional average of 5.7%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by Census data on working population vs resident population. During the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.3% and labour force increased by 3.3%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2%, labour force growth of 2.3%, with unemployment rising marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Rose Bay. These projections indicate that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 14.8% over ten years, though industry-specific growth rates differ significantly. Applying these projections to Rose Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.5% over five years and 14.8% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The suburb of Rose Bay had a median taxpayer income of $78,436 and an average income of $213,359 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This places it in the top percentile nationally, compared to Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,023. By September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% suggest the median income would be approximately $85,385 and the average income around $232,263. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Rose Bay rank highly nationally, with household, family, and personal incomes between the 91st and 96th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 34.4% of residents (3,556 people) earn over $4,000 per week, contrasting with regional trends where 30.9% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. Rose Bay's affluence is evident with 45.5% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 18.2% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 89th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Rose Bay features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Rose Bay's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 20.7% houses and 79.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rose Bay stood at 31.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 24.6% and rented ones at 44.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,250, exceeding the Sydney metro average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Rose Bay was $630, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Rose Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Rose Bay features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households are the majority, accounting for 65.4% of all households. They consist of 27.2% couples with children, 28.1% couples without children, and 9.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 34.6%, with lone person households at 30.0% and group households comprising 4.5%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Rose Bay demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Rose Bay's educational attainment is notably high, with 54.2% of residents aged 15+ possessing university qualifications. This figure exceeds the national average of 30.4% and the NSW average of 32.2%. The area has a strong representation of bachelor degree holders at 36.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.7%) and graduate diplomas (3.7%). Vocational pathways are also pursued, with 21.9% of residents aged 15+ holding advanced diplomas (11.6%) or certificates (10.3%).

Educational participation is high, with 29.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (9.2%), secondary education (7.8%), and tertiary education (6.6%).

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Rose Bay has 56 active public transport stops offering a mix of ferry and bus services. These are covered by 46 different routes, collectively handling 5,799 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically living 127 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Cars remain the dominant mode at 69%, followed by walking (8%) and bus use (7%). Vehicle ownership averages one per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 57.8% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 828 trips daily across all routes, equating to about 103 weekly trips per individual stop.

Rose Bay's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Rose Bay's health outcomes show excellent results based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were very low across all age groups. Private health cover was exceptionally high at approximately 111% of the total population (11,444 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions were asthma and arthritis, affecting 6.1 and 5.9% of residents respectively. 76.0% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. As of 2021, 22.1% of Rose Bay's residents were aged 65 and over (2,284 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Health outcomes among seniors were strong, broadly in line with the general population nationally.

Rose Bay was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Rose Bay has a high level of cultural diversity, with 20.9% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 42.3% born overseas. The dominant religion in Rose Bay is Christianity, comprising 34.8% of the population. However, Judaism is significantly overrepresented, making up 31.7% compared to the Greater Sydney average of 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (21.5%), Other (17.7%), and Australian (15.6%). Some ethnic groups have notable representation: South Australian at 5.3%, Polish at 2.6%, and Russian at 2.5%.

Rose Bay's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Rose Bay has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Sydney average, Rose Bay has an over-representation of the 75-84 cohort (8.8% locally) and an under-representation of the 25-34 age group (13.8%). Between 2021 and the present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 10.2% to 12.7%, while the 75-84 cohort has grown from 7.2% to 8.8%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group has decreased from 13.4% to 12.0%. Demographic projections suggest significant changes in Rose Bay's age profile by 2041. The 85+ age cohort is projected to grow significantly, increasing by 360 people (92%) from 392 to 753. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 81% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 0-4 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.