Rose Bay (NSW)

Rose Bay is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Rose Bay (NSW) statistical area (Lv2) was estimated at around 10,320 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 409 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,911 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 10,206 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and an additional 154 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 4,079 persons per square kilometer, which lies in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Rose Bay's growth of 4.1% since census positions it within 1.7 percentage points of the SA3 area (5.8%). Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, a population increase just below the median of national statistical areas is expected, with the area projected to grow by 783 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 5.5% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Rose Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Rose Bay averaged around 58 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years to June 2021. This totals an estimated 292 homes. In the current financial year ending June 2026, 29 approvals have been recorded so far. The area has experienced population decline, suggesting that new supply has likely kept up with demand, offering good choice to buyers.

New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $2,532,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. There have also been $329.9 million in commercial approvals this financial year, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Rose Bay records 98.0% more construction activity per person. Recent construction comprises 28.0% detached dwellings and 72.0% medium and high-density housing, providing accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. With around 229 people per dwelling approval, Rose Bay shows characteristics of a low density area.

According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Rose Bay is expected to grow by 573 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Rose Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 43 projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include Kincoppal-Rose Bay School Campus Masterplan, Wilberforce Avenue Car Park Redevelopment, 88-96 Newcastle Street Rose Bay, and Orosi Rose Bay - Residential Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Rose Bay shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Rose Bay has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented. Its unemployment rate is 2.7% and it saw 2.6% employment growth in the past year (AreaSearch data).

As of September 2025, 5979 residents are employed, with a 1.5% lower unemployment rate than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney at 63.6%. Key sectors include professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and finance & insurance, with professional & technical notably high at 1.6 times the regional average. Manufacturing shows lower representation at 3.0% versus the regional average of 5.7%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited. In the year to September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.6%, labour force by 2.7%, with unemployment essentially unchanged (AreaSearch analysis). Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with unemployment rising 0.2 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National unemployment is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 14.8% over ten years. Applying these projections to Rose Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.5% over five years and 14.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Rose Bay's median taxpayer income was $78,436 with an average of $213,359 in financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This places it among the top percentile nationally, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $85,385 (median) and $232,263 (average). Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Rose Bay rank highly nationally, between the 91st and 96th percentiles. The earnings profile indicates that 34.4% of residents earn over $4,000 per week (3,550 people), unlike regional trends where 30.9% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. Rose Bay demonstrates affluence with 45.5% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 18.2% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 89th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Rose Bay features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Rose Bay's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 20.7% houses and 79.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 20.7% houses and 81.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rose Bay was 31.3%, similar to Sydney metro's figure. Mortgaged dwellings made up 24.6%, with rented dwellings at 44.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,250, below Sydney metro's average of $3,600. Median weekly rent in Rose Bay was $630, compared to Sydney metro's $670. Nationally, Rose Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Rose Bay features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 65.4% of all households, including 27.2% couples with children, 28.1% couples without children, and 9.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 34.6%, with lone person households at 30.0% and group households comprising 4.5%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Rose Bay demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Rose Bay has a notably high educational attainment among residents aged 15 and above, with 54.2% holding university qualifications compared to the national average of 30.4% and the NSW average of 32.2%. This significant educational advantage is largely driven by bachelor degrees (36.8%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.7%) and graduate diplomas (3.7%). Vocational pathways account for a considerable portion at 21.9%, with advanced diplomas making up 11.6% and certificates 10.3%. Educational participation is notably high in Rose Bay, with 29.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (9.2%), secondary education (7.8%), and tertiary education (6.6%).

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Rose Bay has 56 active public transport stops, a mix of ferry and bus terminals. These are served by 46 different routes, offering a total of 5,799 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically living 127 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 828 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 103 weekly trips per individual stop.

Rose Bay's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Rose Bay shows excellent health outcomes across all age groups, with very low prevalence of common health conditions. The area has a remarkably high private health cover rate of approximately 111%, covering 11,424 people, compared to Greater Sydney's 88.6% and the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (6.1%) and arthritis (5.9%), with 76.0% of residents reporting no medical ailments, close to Greater Sydney's 77.6%.

Rose Bay has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 20.8%, or 2,146 people, compared to Greater Sydney's 16.4%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Rose Bay are strong, mirroring the general population's health profile.

Rose Bay was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Rose Bay has a high level of cultural diversity, with 20.9% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 42.3% born overseas. Christianity is the main religion in Rose Bay, comprising 34.8% of people. Judaism is significantly overrepresented, making up 31.7%, compared to the Greater Sydney average of 16.0%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (21.5%), Other (17.7%), and Australian (15.6%). Some ethnic groups show notable divergences: South African at 5.3% (vs regional 2.4%), Polish at 2.6% (vs 1.9%), and Russian at 2.5% (vs 1.6%).

Rose Bay's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Rose Bay has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38 years. Comparing Rose Bay's demographics with the Greater Sydney average, the 75-84 age cohort is notably over-represented at 8.4%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 14.1%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 10.2% to 12.5% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort has increased from 7.2% to 8.4%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has declined from 13.4% to 12.3%. Demographic modeling suggests that Rose Bay's age profile will significantly change by 2041. The 85+ age cohort is projected to increase dramatically, with an expected rise of 390 people (118%) from 330 to 721. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are anticipated to account for 86% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.