Dover Heights

An assessment of population growth drivers in Dover Heights reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The Dover Heights statistical area (Lv2) had a population estimate of around 4,148 as of November 2025, reflecting an increase of 104 people since the 2021 Census. This growth was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 4,121 in June 2024 and nine validated new addresses since the Census date. The area's population density of 4,366 persons per square kilometer places it within the top 10% nationally, indicating high demand for land. Over the past decade, Dover Heights (SA2) exhibited a compound annual growth rate of 0.3%, outperforming its SA3 region. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 70% of population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2-level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former data.

Future demographic trends suggest a population increase just below the national median by 2041, with Dover Heights (SA2) expected to grow by 242 persons, reflecting a total gain of 6.6% over 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Dover Heights is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers for Dover Heights shows approximately 6 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 33 homes were approved, with an additional 4 approved so far in FY26. Despite a falling population during this period, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas.

The average expected construction cost value of new homes is $1,664,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment. Commercial approvals in FY26 totalled $114,000, suggesting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Dover Heights has roughly half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person. Nationally, it ranks at the 11th percentile for areas assessed, offering limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing dwellings. This level reflects the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New development in Dover Heights consists of 22.0% standalone homes and 78.0% attached dwellings, representing a shift from the current housing composition of 66.0% houses.

This trend towards denser development provides accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles. Dover Heights has around 1385 people per approval, demonstrating its maturity and established nature. Population forecasts suggest the area will gain 274 residents by 2041. Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Dover Heights has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly impact local performance. AreaSearch identified 10 projects potentially affecting the area. Notable ones are OSHR at Vaucluse - Seniors Living Development, Refresh Vaucluse Diamond Bay - Wastewater Infrastructure, Kincoppal-Rose Bay School Campus Masterplan, and Boutique Shoptop Apartment Project. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Dover Heights shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Dover Heights has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 3.0%, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.0% based on AreaSearch data aggregation. As of September 2025, 2,291 residents are employed with an unemployment rate of 1.2% below Greater Sydney's. Workforce participation is standard at 62.6%. Dominant employment sectors include professional & technical (showing strong specialization), health care & social assistance, and finance & insurance.

Transport, postal & warehousing has lower representation at 1.5%, compared to the regional average of 5.3%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited. Over the year ending September 2025, employment increased by 3.0% while labour force grew by 3.1%, causing unemployment to rise slightly. Greater Sydney recorded similar trends but with lower growth rates. State-level data from NSW as of 25-Nov shows employment contracted slightly at -0.03%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Dover Heights' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.9% over five years and 15.6% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released on June 30, 2023, Dover Heights had a median income among taxpayers of $83,502 and an average income of $224,406. These figures place Dover Heights in the top percentile nationally, compared to Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from July 1, 2023 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $90,900 for median income and $244,288 for average income as of September 2025. The 2021 Census revealed that household, family, and personal incomes in Dover Heights rank highly nationally, between the 96th and 99th percentiles. Income analysis shows that 48.9% of Dover Heights' population (2,028 individuals) fall within the $4000+ income range, contrasting with the metropolitan region where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 30.9%. A significant portion of residents, 61.3%, exceed $3,000 weekly in earnings, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. Housing accounts for 13.5% of income, and residents rank highly in disposable income, placing Dover Heights in the 99th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Dover Heights displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Dover Heights, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 66.5% houses and 33.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metropolitan area's 18.3% houses and 81.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Dover Heights stood at 43.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 36.4% and rented ones at 19.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $4,333, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded as $798. Nationally, mortgage repayments in Dover Heights were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Dover Heights features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 82.6% of all households, including 46.0% couples with children, 27.6% couples without children, and 7.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 17.4%, with lone person households at 15.3% and group households comprising 2.2%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.3.

Dover Heights shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Dover Heights' residents aged 15 and above have a higher educational attainment compared to broader benchmarks. 56.5% of residents hold university qualifications, surpassing Australia's 30.4% and NSW's 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 38.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (15.2%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Vocational pathways account for 16.7%, with advanced diplomas at 9.4% and certificates at 7.3%.

Educational participation is high, with 34.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.0% in secondary education, 10.3% in primary education, and 7.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Dover Heights has 32 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 21 different routes that together offer 979 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these services is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located just 112 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 139 trips across all routes, which amounts to approximately 30 weekly trips per individual stop.

Dover Heights's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Dover Heights shows excellent health outcomes with very low prevalence of common conditions across all ages. Private health cover rate is exceptionally high at approximately 115% of total population (4,771 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 88.6%. Nationally, the average is 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 5.0% and 4.9% respectively. 79.7% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 77.6%. Dover Heights has 17.1% seniors (aged 65 and over), totaling 709 people. Senior health outcomes align with the general population's profile.

Dover Heights was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Dover Heights has a high level of cultural diversity, with 21.0% of its population speaking a language other than English at home as of the latest data available. This figure is higher than the regional average of 16.5%. Additionally, 42.6% of Dover Heights' population was born overseas, compared to the Greater Sydney average of 34.9%.

The dominant religion in Dover Heights is Judaism, with 52.7% of people identifying as such, significantly higher than the regional average of 16.0%. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (22.3%), English (15.6%), and Australian (15.0%). The 'Other' category is substantially higher than the regional average of 14.4%, while the English group is notably lower at 15.6% compared to the regional average of 23.9%. There are notable divergences in the representation of certain ethnic groups, including South African (9.8% vs regional 2.4%), Russian (3.8% vs regional 1.6%), and Hungarian (2.7% vs regional 1.2%).

Dover Heights's median age exceeds the national pattern

Dover Heights's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Dover Heights has a notably higher proportion of the 45-54 age group at 15.8%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 9.6%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has increased from 13.8% to 16.4% of Dover Heights' population. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 15.5% to 13.8%, and the 0-4 age group has dropped from 4.9% to 3.9%. Demographic modeling suggests that Dover Heights' age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 55-64 age group is projected to grow by 21%, adding 110 residents to reach 629. Residents aged 65 and older represent 58% of the anticipated population growth, while the 0-4 and 35-44 cohorts are projected to decline in population.