Dover Heights

An assessment of population growth drivers in Dover Heights reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Dover Heights' population is estimated at around 4,157, reflecting an increase of 113 people since the 2021 Census. The ABS ERP estimate for surrounding areas applied to Dover Heights by AreaSearch in June 2024 indicated a resident population of 4,129, with 9 new addresses validated since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 4,375 persons per square kilometer, placing Dover Heights in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Dover Heights has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.3%, outpacing its SA3 area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 70.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024, with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to demographic trends, Dover Heights is expected to record a population increase just below the median of national areas by 2041, with an expansion of 243 persons and a total gain of 6.4% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Dover Heights is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Dover Heights has seen approximately seven new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 36 homes were approved, with no approvals so far in FY-26. Despite population decline during this period, development activity has been adequate relative to population changes, which may benefit buyers.

The average value of new homes being built is $1,664,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment and upmarket properties. This financial year has seen $58,000 in commercial approvals, suggesting minimal commercial development activity. Comparatively, Dover Heights has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person when measured against Greater Sydney. Nationally, it places among the 28th percentile of areas assessed, offering more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing dwellings. This level is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and potential planning constraints. New development in Dover Heights consists of 12.0% standalone homes and 88.0% attached dwellings, representing a shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 66.0% houses).

This trend towards denser development provides accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles. As a mature, established area with around 594 people per approval, Dover Heights is forecasted to gain 266 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Dover Heights has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Ten projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely to impact the area, significantly influencing its performance. Key projects include OSHR at Vaucluse - Seniors Living Development, Refresh Vaucluse Diamond Bay - Wastewater Infrastructure, Kincoppal-Rose Bay School Campus Masterplan, and Boutique Shoptop Apartment Project. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Dover Heights shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Dover Heights has a highly educated workforce, with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate was 2.8% in the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 2.9%.

As of June 2025, 2,340 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.4%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation was 62.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The dominant employment sectors were professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and finance & insurance. Dover Heights had a strong specialization in professional & technical services, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level.

Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing showed lower representation at 1.5% versus the regional average of 5.3%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 2.9%, while labour force increased by 2.8%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.2 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6%, labour force growth of 2.9%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Dover Heights' employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 7.9% over five years and 15.6% over ten years, though this was a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and did not account for localized population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch data from FY2022 shows Dover Heights had a median taxpayer income of $83,502 and an average of $224,406. These figures rank among the top percentile nationally, compared to Greater Sydney's $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. By September 2025, estimates based on a 12.61% Wage Price Index growth suggest median and average incomes will be approximately $94,032 and $252,704 respectively. The 2021 Census reveals high rankings for household, family, and personal incomes in Dover Heights, between the 96th and 99th percentiles nationally. Income analysis indicates 48.9% of residents earn over $4,000 weekly, contrasting with Sydney's leading bracket of $1,500 - $2,999 at 30.9%. A significant 61.3% exceed $3,000 weekly, reflecting strong purchasing power. Housing expenses account for 13.5% of income, and residents rank in the 99th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Dover Heights displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Dover Heights, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 66.5% houses and 33.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 18.3% houses and 81.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Dover Heights was at 43.8%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (36.4%) or rented (19.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $4,333, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $798. Nationally, Dover Heights's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Dover Heights features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 82.6 percent of all households, including 46.0 percent couples with children, 27.6 percent couples without children, and 7.8 percent single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 17.4 percent, with lone person households at 15.3 percent and group households comprising 2.2 percent of the total. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.3.

Dover Heights shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Dover Heights is notably higher than broader benchmarks. 56.5% of residents aged 15 years and over hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.2% in NSW. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 38.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (15.2%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Vocational pathways account for 16.7% of qualifications among those aged 15 years and over, with advanced diplomas making up 9.4% and certificates 7.3%.

Educational participation is high, with 34.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.0% in secondary education, 10.3% in primary education, and 7.9% pursuing tertiary education. Kesser Torah College provides local educational services within Dover Heights, enrolling 463 students as of a recent report. The area has above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1077). All 1 schools offer integrated K-12 education for academic continuity. School places per 100 residents are lower than the regional average at 11.1, suggesting some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 27 active stops in Dover Heights. These are mixed bus stops served by 21 routes offering 604 weekly passenger trips. Accessibility is excellent with residents typically 112 meters from nearest stop.

Average daily service frequency is 86 trips across all routes, equating to about 22 weekly trips per stop.

Dover Heights's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results in Dover Heights, with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 115% of the total population (4,781 people), compared to 89.7% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 5.0 and 4.9% of residents respectively.

A significant majority, 79.7%, report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 77.6% across Greater Sydney. Dover Heights has 17.1% of residents aged 65 and over (710 people), with seniors' health outcomes aligning closely with the general population's profile.

Dover Heights is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Dover Heights has a high level of cultural diversity, with 21.0% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 42.6% born overseas. The predominant religion in Dover Heights is Judaism, comprising 52.7% of the population, which is significantly higher than the Greater Sydney average of 16.0%. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (22.3%), English (15.6%), and Australian (15.0%).

Notably, South African ancestry is overrepresented in Dover Heights at 9.8%, compared to the regional average of 2.4%. Similarly, Russian ancestry is higher than the regional average at 3.8% versus 1.6%, and Hungarian ancestry is also notably higher at 2.7% compared to 1.2%.

Dover Heights hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Dover Heights has a median age of 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Dover Heights has an over-representation of the 45-54 age cohort at 15.8%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 9.6%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has increased from 13.8% to 16.4% of the population, while the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 15.5% to 13.8%, and the 0-4 age group has dropped from 4.9% to 3.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Dover Heights' age profile will change significantly. The 55-64 cohort is projected to grow by 21%, adding 110 residents to reach 630. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 58% of the population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 0-4 and 35-44 age cohorts.