Noarlunga Downs

Population growth drivers in Noarlunga Downs are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, the estimated population of Noarlunga Downs as of Nov 2025 is around 3,857. This reflects a decrease since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,031 people. The current resident population estimate by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) is 3,834, with an additional 1 validated new address since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 890 persons per square kilometer. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 56.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections by age category, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of Australian statistical areas is expected for Noarlunga Downs, with the suburb expected to increase by 324 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting recording a gain of 15.1% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Noarlunga Downs, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Noarlunga Downs recorded approximately five residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years ending June 2025. This totals an estimated twenty-seven homes. As of FY-26, zero approvals have been recorded.

Between FY-21 and FY-25, an average of 1.7 people moved to the area for each dwelling built. However, this decreased to zero people per dwelling over the past two financial years. Compared to Greater Adelaide, Noarlunga Downs has markedly lower building activity, 73.0% below the regional average per person. New development consists of 86.0% detached dwellings and 14.0% attached dwellings.

Future projections show Noarlunga Downs adding 582 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Noarlunga Downs has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 42ndth percentile nationally

Six projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly, including the Noarlunga Master Planning Housing Project, Main South Road Duplication Stage 1 - Aldinga Project, Noarlunga Residential Development, and Noarlunga Hospital Mental Health Expansion.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Noarlunga Downs are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Noarlunga Downs has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. Its unemployment rate in June 2025 was 11.1%.

This is higher than Greater Adelaide's rate of 4%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.1%. Residents are primarily employed in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Construction employment is particularly high, at 1.3 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical jobs are lower than average, at 4.3% compared to 7.3%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 3.1%, while labour force grew by 3.4%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Adelaide saw employment grow by 2.1% and unemployment rise marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Noarlunga Downs' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Noarlunga Downs had a median income among taxpayers of $52,629 and an average level of $57,675. This is lower than the national average, with Greater Adelaide having levels of $52,592 and $64,886 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.83% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $59,381 (median) and $65,075 (average) as of September 2025. The 2021 Census reveals household, family, and personal incomes in Noarlunga Downs fall between the 12th and 19th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows 30.1% of the population (1,160 individuals) have incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999, similar to the region where 31.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Noarlunga Downs, with only 81.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 11th percentile.

Noarlunga Downs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Noarlunga Downs, as per the latest Census, 88.6% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 11.4% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments and other types. This is similar to Adelaide metro's dwelling structure, which was 89.2% houses and 10.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Noarlunga Downs stood at 22.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.5% and rented ones at 34.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,352, lower than Adelaide metro's $1,452. The median weekly rent in Noarlunga Downs was $250, compared to Adelaide metro's $314. Nationally, Noarlunga Downs' mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Noarlunga Downs features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.9% of all households, including 24.0% couples with children, 23.7% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.1%, with lone person households at 32.3% and group households comprising 3.0%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Greater Adelaide average of 2.5.

Educational outcomes in Noarlunga Downs fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.9%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This presents both challenges and opportunities for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (9.2%) and certificates (32.5%).

Educational participation is high at 27.2%, including primary education (10.9%), secondary education (6.9%), and tertiary education (4.0%). The three schools in Noarlunga Downs have a combined enrollment of 2,223 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 983) offering balanced educational opportunities. Educational provision is conventional, split between one primary and two secondary institutions. The area functions as an education hub with 57.6 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 13.6, attracting students from surrounding communities. Note: for schools showing 'n/a' in enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Noarlunga Downs shows that there are currently 34 active transport stops operating. These stops offer a variety of bus services, with a total of 13 individual routes running through the area. Collectively, these routes provide 629 weekly passenger trips.

The report rates the accessibility of transport as excellent, with residents typically located just 187 meters from their nearest transport stop. The service frequency averages out to 89 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Noarlunga Downs is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Noarlunga Downs faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data. Both younger and older age groups have notable prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately 50% (~1,921 people) of the total population has private health cover, which is relatively low compared to the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 11.9 and 9.6% of residents respectively. However, 60.6% of residents report having no medical ailments, slightly lower than the 62.9% reported across Greater Adelaide. The area has 18.9% (728 people) of residents aged 65 and over, which is lower than the 21.0% in Greater Adelaide. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Noarlunga Downs records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Noarlunga Downs' cultural diversity aligns with the broader region's average. 76.8% of its residents were born in Australia, 89.7% are citizens, and 91.5% speak English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, practiced by 37.1% of Noarlunga Downs' population.

Hinduism, at 0.9%, is overrepresented compared to Greater Adelaide's 0.6%. The top three ancestry groups are English (34.8%), Australian (28.0%), and Scottish (6.4%). Hungarian (0.5%) and Dutch (2.0%) populations are notably higher than the regional averages of 0.3% and 1.7%, respectively, while French representation is also slightly higher at 0.7%.

Noarlunga Downs's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Noarlunga Downs has a median age of 39 years, which matches Greater Adelaide's average of 39 and is aligned with Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Adelaide's average, the 75-84 cohort is notably over-represented at Noarlunga Downs (7.9% locally), while the 35-44 age group is under-represented (12.3%). According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has grown from 6.1% to 7.9%, and the 65-74 cohort has declined from 11.0% to 9.8%. Demographic modeling suggests that Noarlunga Downs' age profile will evolve significantly by 2041, with the 45-54 cohort projected to grow by 21%, adding 100 residents to reach 586.