Noarlunga Downs

Population growth drivers in Noarlunga Downs are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, as of Nov 2025, the Noarlunga Downs statistical area (Lv2) has an estimated population of around 4,138. This reflects a growth of 107 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,031. AreaSearch estimates the resident population at 4,080 as of June 2024, with an additional validated new address since the Census date contributing to this increase. The population density is approximately 955 persons per square kilometer, in line with averages across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration primarily drove recent growth, accounting for nearly 57% of overall population gains.

Population projections for the Noarlunga Downs (SA2) are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 using a 2022 base year. For areas not covered and years post-2032, SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections by age category from 2023, based on 2021 data, are adopted with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods. Future population trends indicate an expected increase of around 334 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of approximately 7.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Noarlunga Downs according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Noarlunga Downs had approximately 5 residential properties approved annually over the past 5 financial years, totalling around 25 homes. In FY-26 to date, 4 approvals have been recorded. Over these 5 years, an average of 1.9 people moved to the area per dwelling built. However, this decreased to 0.2 people per dwelling over the past 2 financial years. New properties are constructed at an average cost of $280,000.

This year, $1.3 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded. Compared to Greater Adelaide, Noarlunga Downs has significantly less development activity, 75.0% below regional average per person. Recent construction comprises 83.0% detached houses and 17.0% townhouses or apartments. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 393 people. Population forecasts indicate the area will gain 311 residents by 2041.

If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth.

Noarlunga Downs has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 21stth percentile nationally

The performance of a region can significantly be influenced by alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified six projects that are expected to impact this area. Notable projects include the Noarlunga Master Planning Housing Project, Main South Road Duplication Stage 1 - Aldinga Project, Noarlunga Residential Development, and Noarlunga Hospital Mental Health Expansion. The following list outlines those projects deemed most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Noarlunga Downs are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Noarlunga Downs has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 10.1% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.0%.

As of September 2025, 1,888 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 6.2%, higher than Greater Adelaide's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation is lower at 57.8% compared to Greater Adelaide's 61.7%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction, with a notable specialization in construction at 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 4.3% versus the regional average of 7.3%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 5.0% while labour force grew by 4.0%, reducing unemployment by 0.9 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Adelaide saw employment grow by 3.0%, labour force expand by 2.9%, and unemployment fall by 0.1 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows SA employment grew by 1.19% year-on-year with a state unemployment rate of 4.0%. National forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Noarlunga Downs' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Noarlunga Downs had a median taxpayer income of $52,629 and an average of $57,675. This is below the national averages of $66,852 in Greater Adelaide. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.8% since financial year 2023, estimated median and average incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $57,260 and $62,750 respectively. Census 2021 income data indicates Noarlunga Downs' household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 12th and 19th percentiles nationally. Income brackets show 30.1% of residents (1,245 people) earn $1,500 - 2,999 annually, similar to surrounding regions at 31.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally.

Noarlunga Downs is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Noarlunga Downs, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings. In comparison, Adelaide metro had 89.2% houses and 10.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Noarlunga Downs was at 22.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.5% and rented ones at 34.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,352, below Adelaide metro's average of $1,452. The median weekly rent figure in Noarlunga Downs was $250, compared to Adelaide metro's $314. Nationally, Noarlunga Downs' mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Noarlunga Downs features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.9% of all households, including 24.0% couples with children, 23.7% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.1%, with lone person households at 32.3% and group households comprising 3.0%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Adelaide average of 2.5.

Educational outcomes in Noarlunga Downs fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.9%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 41.7% of residents aged 15 and above holding them - advanced diplomas account for 9.2% and certificates for 32.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.9% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 34 active public transport stops in Noarlunga Downs, operated by a mix of bus routes. These stops are served by 14 individual routes, offering a total of 632 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents on average located 187 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 90 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Noarlunga Downs is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows significant health challenges in Noarlunga Downs, with high prevalence of common conditions across both younger and older age groups. Approximately half (50%) of the total population (~2,061 people) has private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (11.9% of residents) and arthritis (9.6%), while 60.6% report no medical ailments, compared to 62.9% in Greater Adelaide. As of 31 December 2020, 19.0% of residents are aged 65 and over (786 people), lower than the 21.0% in Greater Adelaide. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Noarlunga Downs records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Noarlunga Downs' cultural diversity aligns with its broader region's average, with 76.8% born in Australia, 89.7% being citizens, and 91.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, at 37.1%. Hinduism, however, is overrepresented at 0.9%, compared to 0.6% regionally.

Top ancestry groups are English (34.8%), Australian (28.0%), and Scottish (6.4%). Notable ethnic group divergences include Hungarian at 0.5% (vs regional 0.3%), Dutch at 2.0% (vs 1.7%), and French at 0.7% (vs 0.4%).

Noarlunga Downs's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Noarlunga Downs's median age is 39 years, aligning with Greater Adelaide's average of 39 and closely matching Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Adelaide, the 75-84 age cohort is notably higher (7.9% locally) while the 35-44 age group is lower (12.3%). Post-2021 Census, the 75-84 age group grew from 6.1% to 7.9%, and the 65-74 cohort decreased from 11.0% to 9.8%. By 2041, demographic projections suggest Noarlunga Downs's age profile will significantly change. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 134%, adding 72 residents to reach 126. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 51% of the population growth. Conversely, the 35-44 age group shows no projected growth, adding 0 residents.