Modbury

Population growth drivers in Modbury are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, as of May 2026, Modbury's population is estimated at around 6,179. This reflects an increase of 586 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 5,593. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of resident population as 6,146 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2025 and an additional 221 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,861 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Modbury's growth rate of 10.5% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA3 area (4.1%) and the state level, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 91.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections are adopted with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Moving forward with demographic trends, Modbury is expected to grow by 513 persons to reach approximately 6,692 by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall gain of 7.8% in total over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Modbury among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Modbury had around 71 new homes approved per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 359 homes. As of FY-26, 42 approvals have been recorded. On average, each dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25 accommodates 1.2 new residents annually. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $323,000.

This financial year has seen $31.5 million in commercial approvals, indicating high local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Adelaide, Modbury records 163% more new home approvals per person. Development activity has moderated recently but remains robust, significantly above the national average. New building activity comprises 69% standalone homes and 31% attached dwellings, offering choices across price ranges. With around 102 people per dwelling approval, Modbury exhibits growth area characteristics.

Future projections estimate Modbury adding 480 residents by 2041. Current construction levels should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth exceeding current forecasts.

Modbury has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 32ndth percentile nationally

Eleven projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Valley View Golf Course Residential Release (Stage 3 & 4), Modbury Hospital Redevelopment Project, Euca Modbury Townhomes, and Westfield Tea Tree Plaza Entertainment & Leisure Precinct. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Modbury has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Modbury has a well-educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 4.2% as of the latest available data. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.5%.

In December 2025, 3,177 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 0.4% higher than Greater Adelaide's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Modbury was 63.4%, slightly below Greater Adelaide's 66.0%. According to Census responses, a low 7.9% of residents worked from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction sectors.

The area shows notable concentration in administrative & support services with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. Conversely, education & training has lower representation at 7.8% compared to the regional average of 9.3%. There is a ratio of 1.1 workers per resident, indicating Modbury functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Over a 12-month period, employment increased by 2.5% alongside labour force increasing by 2.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.1 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Adelaide saw employment grow by 4.2%, labour force expand by 3.9%, and unemployment fall by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Modbury. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Modbury's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Modbury suburb had median income among taxpayers of $49,447 with average level at $55,590. This is lower than national average and compares to levels of $54,808 and $66,852 across Greater Adelaide respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.17% since financial year ended June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $54,476 (median) and $61,244 (average) as of March 2026. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Modbury all fall between 23rd and 25th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals 33.7% of population (2,082 individuals) fall within $1,500 - $2,999 income range, mirroring region where 31.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 83.6% of income remaining, ranking at 23rd percentile.

Modbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Modbury's dwelling structure, as recorded in the latest Census, consisted of 75.7% houses and 24.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is similar to Adelaide metro's composition of 75.2% houses and 24.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Modbury was 31.6%, comparable to Adelaide metro's rate. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (35.6%) or rented (32.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Modbury was $1,430, lower than Adelaide metro's average of $1,562. The median weekly rent in Modbury was $315, slightly below Adelaide metro's figure of $320. Nationally, Modbury's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Modbury features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.3% of all households, including 25.0% couples with children, 24.0% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.7%, with lone person households at 32.6% and group households comprising 4.0%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Adelaide average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Modbury aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 28.7%, higher than the SA4 region average of 19.8% and the SA3 area rate of 23.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 18.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are held by 32.8% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.2% and certificates at 22.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 8.8% in primary, 7.6% in tertiary, and 5.1% in secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Modbury has 61 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 49 different routes that together facilitate 5,916 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these stops is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 172 meters from the nearest one. Most residents commute outward due to Modbury's primarily residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport, used by 79% of residents, while buses are used by 16%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.1, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 7.9% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 845 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 96 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Modbury are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Modbury's health indicators show below-average outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment as of March 2021. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were found to be higher than average, with common health conditions slightly more prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover was relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~3,028 people), compared to Greater Adelaide's 52.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions were mental health issues (8.7%) and arthritis (7.8%), while 67.8% reported being completely clear of medical ailments, similar to Greater Adelaide's 67.9%. Health outcomes among the working-age population were typical. As of March 2021, Modbury had 16.7% of residents aged 65 and over (1,031 people), lower than Greater Adelaide's 19.2%, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Modbury is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Modbury's population comprises 34.1% speaking a language other than English at home, with 39.7% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 39.6%. The 'Other' religious category is overrepresented at 5.1%, compared to Greater Adelaide's 1.8%.

In terms of ancestry, English (24.1%), Australian (19.6%), and Other (15.2%) are the top groups, with Other being substantially higher than the regional average of 9.7%. Notably, Indian (6.8% vs 2.3%), Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.3%), and Polish (0.9% vs 1.0%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Modbury compared to Greater Adelaide.

Modbury's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Modbury is 36 years, which is slightly lower than Greater Adelaide's average of 39 and also slightly lower than Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Adelaide, Modbury has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (19.2%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (9.4%). Between the 2021 Census and present day, the population aged 35-44 has increased from 14.6% to 16.6%, while the 25-34 age group has risen from 18.1% to 19.2%. Conversely, the 85+ age group has decreased from 3.0% to 1.8%. By 2041, Modbury's population is expected to experience notable shifts in its age composition. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 28%, adding 183 people and reaching a total of 851 from the previous figure of 667. Meanwhile, the 65-74 age group is expected to decrease by 19 residents.