Modbury

Population growth drivers in Modbury are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Modbury is around 6,441, reflecting a 15.2% increase since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 5,593 people. This growth is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 5,919 residents following examination of ABS data released in June 2024 and an additional 215 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,940 persons per square kilometer, which exceeds the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Modbury's growth exceeded that of its SA3 area (7.2%) and the state, making it a growth leader in the region. The primary driver for this growth was overseas migration, contributing approximately 91.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections are adopted with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Based on these projections, Modbury is expected to increase its population by just below the median of Australian statistical areas, gaining 700 persons to reach an estimated total of 6,441 by 2041, reflecting a gain of 1.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Modbury among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Modbury recorded around 71 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, totalling an estimated 356 homes. As of FY-26, 29 approvals have been recorded. The average number of new residents per year per dwelling constructed during this period was 0.9. New supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction value of new homes was $323,000. In FY-26, $31.5 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. Modbury has 164.0% more development activity per person compared to Greater Adelaide. Recent construction comprises 69.0% detached houses and 31.0% townhouses or apartments, providing options across different price points. Modbury reflects a developing area with around 104 people per approval.

Population forecasts indicate Modbury will gain 80 residents through to 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Modbury has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 29thth percentile nationally

Twelve projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area, with key ones being Valley View Golf Course Residential Release (Stages 3 & 4), Modbury Hospital Redevelopment Project, Euca Modbury Townhomes, and Westfield Tea Tree Plaza Entertainment & Leisure Precinct.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Modbury shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Modbury has a well-educated workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 4.2% as of September 2025, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.2%.

As of September 2025, there were 2,942 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 0.2% above Greater Adelaide's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 61.1%, compared to Greater Adelaide's 66.4%. According to Census responses, only 7.9% of residents worked from home. Employment among residents was concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

The area had particular employment specialization in administrative & support services, with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level. In contrast, education & training employed just 7.8% of local workers, below Greater Adelaide's 9.3%. There were 1.1 workers for every resident as at the Census, indicating that Modbury functions as an employment hub hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. During the year to September 2025, employment levels increased by 1.2% and labour force increased by 1.2%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable. This contrasted with Greater Adelaide, where employment rose by 3.0%, the labour force grew by 2.9%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggested potential future demand within Modbury. Applying these industry-specific projections to Modbury's employment mix indicated local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released on June 30, 2023, Modbury had a median income among taxpayers of $49,447 and an average income of $55,590. These figures are lower than the national averages of $54,808 and $66,852 respectively for Greater Adelaide. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.8% since June 30, 2023, estimated median income as of September 2025 is approximately $53,798, with average income estimated at $60,482. The 2021 Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Modbury fall between the 23rd and 25th percentiles nationally. In Modbury, 33.7% of individuals (2,170 people) have incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999, similar to the surrounding region where 31.8% fall within this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Modbury, with only 83.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 23rd percentile nationally.

Modbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Modbury's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.7% houses and 24.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Adelaide metro had 75.2% houses and 24.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Modbury was 31.6%, similar to Adelaide metro's figure. Dwellings were either mortgaged (35.6%) or rented (32.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Modbury was $1,430, below the Adelaide metro average of $1,562 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Modbury was $315, lower than Adelaide metro's $320 and the national figure of $375.

Modbury features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.3% of all households, including 25.0% couples with children, 24.0% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 36.7%, with lone person households at 32.6% and group households comprising 4.0%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Greater Adelaide average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Modbury aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates of 28.7% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the SA4 regional average of 19.8% and the SA3 area rate of 23.2%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 18.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational skills are prominent, with 32.8% of residents aged 15+ holding credentials such as advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (22.6%).

Educational participation is high at 28.3%, including 8.8% in primary education, 7.6% in tertiary education, and 5.1% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Modbury has 61 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 49 different routes that collectively facilitate 5,916 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 172 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Modbury being primarily residential. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 79%, while buses account for 16%. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 7.9% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 845 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 96 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Modbury are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Health indicators suggest below-average health outcomes in Modbury based on AreaSearch's assessment conducted in July-August 2021. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were found to be higher than average for both younger and older age cohorts, with mental health issues impacting 8.7% of residents and arthritis affecting 7.8%. Private health cover was relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~3,156 people), compared to 52.7% across Greater Adelaide and a national average of 55.7%.

Sixty-seven point eight percent of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 67.9% reported across Greater Adelaide. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 18.4% of residents aged 65 and over (1,185 people), with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Modbury is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Modbury's cultural diversity is notable, with 34.1% speaking a language other than English at home and 39.7% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 39.6%. The 'Other' category comprises 5.1%, higher than Greater Adelaide's 1.8%.

In terms of ancestry, English (24.1%) and Australian (19.6%) are the top groups, with 'Other' at 15.2%, substantially higher than the regional average of 9.7%. Some ethnic groups show notable divergences: Indian is overrepresented at 6.8% compared to 2.3% regionally, Hungarian at 0.4% (vs 0.3%), and Polish at 0.9% (vs 1.0%).

Modbury's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Modbury is 36 years, which is slightly below Greater Adelaide's average of 39 years and also slightly below Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Adelaide, Modbury has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (18.8%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (8.9%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the proportion of residents aged 35-44 has increased from 14.6% to 16.2%, while the proportion of those aged 65-74 has decreased from 9.0% to 8.0%. By 2041, Modbury's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 17 people, reaching 789 from 676. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above accounting for 56% of the projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 55-64 and 0-4 age groups.