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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
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ABS ERP | -- people | --
2021 Census | -- people
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Modbury Heights has an estimated 19,841 residents, up from 19,248 at the 2021 Census — a change of 593 people, or 3.1%. That puts 2,002 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
Based on assessments by AreaSearch, the population of Modbury Heights is estimated at 19,841 as of May 2026. This indicates an expansion of 593 individuals (3.1%) from the 19,248 residents recorded in the 2021 Census. This growth calculation combines the ABS estimated resident population of 19,813 from June 2025 with 47 validated new addresses registered since the Census. With these figures, the population density stands at 2,002 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the typical density across national locations analyzed by AreaSearch. The post-census growth of 3.1% trails the wider SA3 region (4.1%) by 1.0 percentage points, showing competitive local expansion.
This population increase was largely underpinned by overseas migration, which accounted for roughly 66.5% of the total growth during the latest intervals. Projections from ABS and Geoscience Australia, published in 2024 with a 2022 baseline, are utilized for each SA2 region. For locations lacking this data and for projection years after 2032, regional and LGA projections by age bracket from the SA State Government (released in 2023 using 2021 data) are applied via a weighted aggregation of population growth from the LGA to the SA2 level. Reflecting these anticipated demographic shifts, the region is projected to experience a population gain slightly under the national median, with the latest annual ERP statistics indicating an increase of 1,026 people by 2041, representing a total rise of 5.0% over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
284 new dwellings have been approved in Modbury Heights over the past five years, an average of 56 a year. That is 2.9 approvals per 1,000 residents. Of the 43 dwellings approved in the latest reporting year, 93% were detached houses and the rest townhouses or apartments. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 99, running ahead of that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this SA2 boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
An average of 56 residential building approvals have been registered annually in Modbury Heights, representing 284 residential properties over the prior 5 financial years. In the current FY-26 period, 91 approvals have been logged. With an average of 1.1 additional residents per year per finished dwelling between FY-21 and FY-25, demand and supply appear closely aligned, supporting a stable local market. New homes carry an average construction value of $208,000, which falls below regional averages and provides more budget-friendly purchasing options. Furthermore, commercial approvals totaling $30.5 million have been recorded so far this financial year, pointing to robust local business investment.
Dwelling approvals per capita in Modbury Heights run at about two-thirds the rate of Greater Adelaide, placing the suburb in the 36th percentile of locations nationwide, which restricts options for buyers and helps sustain demand for existing housing stock. This rate sits below the national benchmark, highlighting the established profile of the suburb and suggesting potential constraints in urban planning. Residential building activity consists of 93.0% detached houses and 7.0% semi-detached or attached options, maintaining a suburban landscape that appeals to buyers seeking space. A ratio of approximately 473 people for each dwelling approval indicates a mature housing market. Demographic forecasts point to Modbury Heights gaining 998 residents by 2041, using the most recent quarterly estimates from AreaSearch. Current levels of building activity are expected to supply sufficient housing to satisfy this demand, fostering favorable buyer conditions and potentially supporting growth that outpaces official estimates.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Modbury Heights
Loading development applications…
| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
|---|
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 4 current infrastructure and development projects inside Modbury Heights, worth an estimated $77 million. A further 37 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $3.44 billion. 9 are already under construction and 5 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans transport & logistics, residential development and sports & recreation. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local infrastructure projects, planning choices, and development initiatives are major drivers of regional performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of 23 projects expected to influence the local area. Principal developments include the Wynn Vale Grove Shopping Centre Redevelopment, the Tea Tree Gully Sustainable Sewers Program, the Tilley Recreation Park Indoor Training Facility, and the Modbury Sporting Club Building and Sportsfield Lighting, with the following list detailing the most significant initiatives.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Wynn Vale Grove Shopping Centre Redevelopment
Proposed expansion and refurbishment of the Wynn Vale Grove Shopping Centre including upgraded retail tenancies, expansion of the existing medical centre, improved pedestrian access, landscaping and a reconfigured car park. As of mid-2026 the proposal remains in the planning phase with no confirmed construction commencement publicly announced.
Tea Tree Gully Sustainable Sewers Program
SA Water program to transfer approximately 4,700 properties in the City of Tea Tree Gully from a council run Community Wastewater Management System with on site septic tanks to a modern sewer network. Delivery is being rolled out in zones between 2022 and 2028 to improve service reliability and public health outcomes.
Tilley Recreation Park Indoor Training Facility
New multi-use flexible clubroom facility for Tea Tree Gully City Soccer Club including four unisex change rooms, umpire and medical rooms, clubrooms, undercover viewing area and amenities. Site improvements include viewing areas, additional greenspace and integrated public art elements.
Sunnybrook Estate
Sunnybrook Estate is a boutique residential land subdivision in the established Sunnybrook precinct of Wynn Vale. Earlier stages are complete and the final premium allotments are under construction, delivering around 48 new detached homes close to local shops, schools and parklands.
Modbury Sporting Club building project
Completed council-led redevelopment delivering a new two-storey clubroom facility for Modbury Sporting Club at Ridgehaven, jointly funded by the City of Tea Tree Gully and the State Government. The project delivered four unisex change rooms, umpire rooms, function space and amenities to support the Modbury Football and Cricket clubs and their 700-plus players and members.
ECH Encore Apartments Modbury
Modern retirement accommodation featuring Livable Housing Design Australia Gold Accreditation. 77 dwelling 4-8 level retirement living apartment and allied health services development featuring an integrated early childhood centre. Located within 5 minutes of local shops and public transport.
Springbank Waters Residential Estate
A large, master-planned residential community completed in stages over two decades, featuring over 1,100 homes, wetlands, and parks. The final stage is delivering over 400 new homes and is currently under construction.
Modbury Hospital Redevelopment Project
The $117 million major upgrade of Modbury Hospital includes a state-of-the-art Health Precinct with a brand-new Cancer Centre featuring 12 chemotherapy chairs, and a new Mental Health Precinct with 44 beds (24 mental health rehabilitation beds and a 20-bed older persons mental health unit). The project also delivers a new five-storey multi-deck car park with over 300 spaces, marking the re-introduction of cancer services to the hospital after a decade. Expected completion is December 2025.
10,604 residents of Modbury Heights are employed, from a labour force of 10,868. Unemployment sits at 2.4%, with participation at 66.5%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.4% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 15,472, about 78% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Modbury Heights is characterized by a skilled resident workforce with a strong presence in essential services, showing an unemployment rate of only 2.4% and an estimated annual job growth rate of 0.7%. As of March 2026, there are 10,604 employed residents, with the local unemployment rate sitting 1.4% lower than the Greater Adelaide average of 3.8%. The labor force participation rate matches the Greater Adelaide level of 66.6%. According to Census details, a modest 10.0% of the workforce operated from home, though this figure was likely influenced by restrictions associated with the pandemic.
The primary employment sectors for local residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The suburb exhibits a high concentration of workers in public administration & safety, standing at 1.2 times the regional average. In contrast, the accommodation & food sector is underrepresented, accounting for 4.9% of local workers compared to 6.8% across the wider region. The comparison between the resident workforce and the local job count suggests this highly residential suburb offers few employment positions within its own boundaries. Based on AreaSearch's review of SALM and ABS data, the past 12-month period saw employment rise by 0.7% while the labor force grew by 1.0%, leading to a 0.3 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. By comparison, Greater Adelaide experienced a 4.2% expansion in employment, a 4.0% increase in the labor force, and a 0.2 percentage point drop in unemployment. Broader labor market expectations can be sourced from Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment projections from May-25. These five and ten-year forecasts have been applied to the local workforce composition to estimate growth trends. Nationally, employment is projected to rise by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though individual industries vary. Projecting these national sectoral rates onto the local employment distribution suggests Modbury Heights's employment base could expand by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, representing a basic weighted calculation for comparison that does not incorporate local population forecasts.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Modbury Heights is $1,657 a week (about $86,000 a year), with median personal income at $787 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $54,261 a year against an average of $60,254. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
According to tax data from the ATO for the 2023 financial year, analyzed at the postcode level by AreaSearch, the median income of taxpayers in the Modbury Heights SA2 was $54,261, with the average income at $60,254. These levels sit below national benchmarks and compare to medians of $54,808 and averages of $66,852 across Greater Adelaide. Adjusting for a Wage Price Index rise of 10.17% since the 2023 financial year, current estimates would be approximately $59,779 for the median and $66,382 for the average as of March 2026. The 2021 Census shows that family, household, and individual incomes are modest, falling between the 44th and 46th percentiles.
The data indicates that 35.4% of the population (7,023 people) receive incomes in the $1,500 - 2,999 range, close to the regional proportion of 31.8%. Residents retain 87.0% of their income after housing costs, showing manageable expenses, though disposable income is below average in the 48th percentile, and the SEIFA index ranks the area in the 5th decile for income.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Modbury Heights had 7,336 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 91% detached houses and 1% apartments. 45% are owned with a mortgage, 18% rented and 37% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $330 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,500 a month. Rent absorbs 19.9% of household income here and mortgage repayments 20.9%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
According to the latest Census, the housing mix in Modbury Heights was dominated by separate houses at 91.2%, with semi-detached properties, apartments, and other dwellings making up the remaining 8.8%, compared to the Adelaide metro split of 75.2% separate houses and 24.9% other dwellings. Home ownership rates in Modbury Heights were notably higher than the metropolitan average at 37.0%, while mortgaged homes accounted for 44.6% and rented properties made up 18.4%. The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,500 was lower than the Adelaide metro median of $1,562, whereas the median weekly rent was $330, compared to $320 across the metro area.
On a national level, home loan repayments in Modbury Heights are much lower than the Australian median of $1,863, and weekly rents are lower than the national average of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Modbury Heights counted 7,336 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.6 people each. 34% are couples with children, against 29% couples without children. 22% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.6 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Family units constitute the vast majority of households at 76.1%, which includes couples with children at 34.3%, couples without children at 28.5%, and single parent households at 12.5%. Non-family households represent 23.9% of the total, consisting of single-person households at 22.0% and group households at 1.8%. The median occupancy size of 2.6 residents per household exceeds the Greater Adelaide average of 2.5.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
21.8% of adults in Modbury Heights hold a university qualification, including 15.0% with a bachelor degree and 4.5% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 26.3% hold a vocational qualification. 7 schools serve the area, with 4,664 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,048 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Tertiary educational attainment in Modbury Heights is lower than regional benchmarks, with 21.8% of residents aged 15+ holding a university degree, compared to the national average of 30.4%. This highlights potential scope for local academic and professional development. Among these degree holders, 15.0% have a bachelor degree, 4.5% possess a postgraduate qualification, and 2.3% hold a graduate diploma. Vocational and technical training is highly prevalent, with 38.3% of individuals aged 15+ holding qualifications, consisting of advanced diplomas (12.0%) and certificates (26.3%). Student numbers are high in the area, with 26.7% of local residents actively enrolled in an educational institution.
This population includes 10.3% attending primary school, 6.9% in secondary school, and 4.5% enrolled in higher education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Modbury Heights reaches 101 stops on 29 routes, timetabled for about 2,300 services a week. The typical home sits about 200 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.5 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transport services in Modbury Heights feature 101 active transit stops, which consist of bus services. These stops are connected to 29 separate routes, delivering a combined total of 2,337 weekly passenger trips. Access to transport is highly rated, with residents living an average of 199 meters from the nearest stop. Due to the residential character of the suburb, the majority of workers travel outside the area for employment, with private cars being the primary mode of travel at 87%, followed by bus transit at 10%. Average vehicle ownership stands at 1.5 cars per household.
A relatively low proportion of 10.0% of the workforce worked from home, according to the 2021 Census, which may reflect conditions during the pandemic. Across all transit lines, services run at an average frequency of 333 trips per day, which translates to about 23 weekly passenger trips for each stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 closest transit stops to the central point of the suburb.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
66.9% of residents in Modbury Heights report no long-term health condition, a healthier profile than 75% of areas nationally. 5.2% need daily assistance with core activities, and 48.9% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 3.2 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
An evaluation of regional health metrics by AreaSearch, which reviews mortality figures and chronic disease rates, suggests favorable health conditions throughout Modbury Heights, with younger age groups showing exceptionally low rates of standard health conditions. Private health insurance coverage is relatively low, held by approximately 49% of the population (~9,702 people), which is lower than the Greater Adelaide rate of 52.7% and the national benchmark of 55.7%. Arthritis and mental health conditions are the most prevalent issues in the suburb, affecting 9.0% and 8.2% of residents respectively. Conversely, 66.9% of the population reported no chronic medical conditions, compared to 67.9% across Greater Adelaide.
Health metrics for the working-age population are generally standard. Residents aged 65 and over make up 21.2% of the local population (4,206 people), exceeding the Greater Adelaide share of 19.2%. Senior citizens in the area show health outcomes that are above average, though they rank lower nationally than the suburb's overall population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
26.8% of Modbury Heights residents were born overseas and 16.2% speak a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (31.0%) and Australian (24.0%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Modbury Heights displays greater cultural diversity than most comparable markets, with 16.2% of residents speaking a language other than English at home and 26.8% born outside of Australia. Christianity is the predominant religion, followed by 43.4% of the population. A notable overrepresentation is found in the Other category, which accounts for 2.5% of residents compared to 1.8% in Greater Adelaide. Regarding ancestral backgrounds based on parents' birthplace, the main ancestries represented are English (31.0%), Australian (24.0%), and Other (7.8%). Certain backgrounds show notable differences from regional averages: Polish ancestry is represented by 1.3% of residents (compared to 1.0% regionally), German ancestry is at 5.7% (compared to 5.1%), and Hungarian ancestry stands at 0.4% (compared to 0.3%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Modbury Heights is 41. 22.1% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age of 41 years in Modbury Heights is slightly above the Greater Adelaide median of 39 and the national median of 38. The age distribution shows a high proportion of residents in the 65 - 74 bracket (11.9%), while the 25 - 34 cohort is smaller (10.3%) than the metropolitan average. Since 2021, the 75 to 84 age bracket has grown from 5.0% to 7.1% of the population, whereas the 55 to 64 group has decreased from 13.7% to 11.9%. Looking forward to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in the age profile, with the 75 to 84 cohort expected to grow by 509 people (36%) from 1,402 to 1,912.
The combined cohorts aged 65 and over are projected to drive 58% of the total population growth, reflecting an aging trend. In contrast, the population of the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 age groups is expected to contract.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Modbury Heights
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the SA2 boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Jul 2026 last month all 4 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Jul 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 47 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (19,248 at the 2021 Census → 19,841 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (402051053). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.