Modbury Heights

Modbury Heights is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Modbury Heights's population is around 20,270 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,022 people (5.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 19,248 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 19,783 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 46 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,045 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Modbury Heights's 5.3% growth since the census positions it within 1.9 percentage points of the SA3 area (7.2%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 60.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections by age category, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Anticipating future population dynamics, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is expected, with the area expected to grow by 1,096 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 3.0% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Modbury Heights according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Modbury Heights has recorded around 56 residential properties granted approval per year, with 284 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 44 so far in FY-26. Given an average of 1.4 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $208,000—under regional levels—indicating more accessible housing choices for buyers. Additionally, $30.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

Compared to Greater Adelaide, Modbury Heights has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person, placing it among the 36th percentile of areas assessed nationally. This means more limited choices for buyers, supporting demand for existing dwellings. This activity is similarly under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. Recent construction comprises 93.0% standalone homes and 7.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 471 people per dwelling approval, Modbury Heights shows a developed market.

Future projections show Modbury Heights adding 609 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Modbury Heights has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 11thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 24 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Wynn Vale Grove Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Tea Tree Gully Sustainable Sewers Program, Tilley Recreation Park Indoor Training Facility, and Modbury Sporting Club Building and Sportsfield Lighting, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Modbury Heights demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Modbury Heights has a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of just 2.3%, and 1.0% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 10,564 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.5% below Greater Adelaide's rate of 3.8%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Adelaide's 67.2%. Based on Census responses, a low 10.0% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in public administration & safety, with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average. In contrast, accommodation & food employs just 4.9% of local workers, below Greater Adelaide's 6.8%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 1.0% and the labour force increased by 1.0%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. By comparison, Greater Adelaide recorded employment growth of 4.2%, labour force growth of 3.9%, with unemployment falling 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Modbury Heights. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Modbury Heights's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Modbury Heights SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $54,261 with the average level standing at $60,254. This is below the national average and compares to levels of $54,808 and $66,852 across Greater Adelaide respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.8% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $59,036 (median) and $65,556 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Modbury Heights, between the 44th and 46th percentiles. Income analysis reveals the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 35.4% of residents (7,175 people), reflecting patterns seen in the region where 31.8% similarly occupy this range. Housing costs are manageable with 87.0% retained, though disposable income sits below average at the 48th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Modbury Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Modbury Heights, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 91.2% houses and 8.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Adelaide metro's 75.2% houses and 24.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Modbury Heights was well beyond that of Adelaide metro, at 37.0%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (44.6%) or rented (18.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Adelaide metro average at $1,500, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $330, compared to Adelaide metro's $1,562 and $320. Nationally, Modbury Heights's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Modbury Heights has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 76.1% of all households, comprising 34.3% couples with children, 28.5% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 23.9%, with lone person households at 22.0% and group households comprising 1.8% of the total. The median household size of 2.6 people is larger than the Greater Adelaide average of 2.5.

Modbury Heights performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

Educational qualifications in Modbury Heights trail regional benchmarks, with 21.8% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 30.4% in Australia. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 15.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 38.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.0%) and certificates (26.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.7% of residents aged 15+ currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 101 active transport stops operating within Modbury Heights, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 29 individual routes, collectively providing 2,337 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 199 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 87%, with 10% by bus. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling. A relatively low 10.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 333 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 23 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Modbury Heights's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Modbury Heights, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Younger cohorts in particular see very low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is approximately 49% of the total population (~9,912 people), compared to 52.7% across Greater Adelaide and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.0% and 8.2% of residents, respectively, while 66.9% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 67.9% across Greater Adelaide. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 21.2% of residents aged 65 and over (4,295 people), which is higher than the 19.3% in Greater Adelaide. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Modbury Heights was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Modbury Heights is more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 16.2% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 26.8% born overseas. The main religion in Modbury Heights is Christianity, which makes up 43.4% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Other, which comprises 2.5% of the population, compared to 1.8% across Greater Adelaide.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Modbury Heights are English, comprising 31.0% of the population, Australian, comprising 24.0% of the population, and Other, comprising 7.8% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Polish is notably overrepresented at 1.3% of Modbury Heights (vs 1.0% regionally), German at 5.7% (vs 5.1%) and Hungarian at 0.4% (vs 0.3%).

Modbury Heights's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The 41-year median age in Modbury Heights is somewhat higher than Greater Adelaide's average of 39 as well as modestly exceeding the 38-year national average. The age profile shows 65 - 74 year-olds are particularly prominent (11.7%), while the 25 - 34 group is comparatively smaller (10.1%) than in Greater Adelaide. In the period since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.0% to 7.2% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 13.7% to 11.9%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Modbury Heights's age structure. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to increase solidly, expanding by 491 people (33%) from 1,467 to 1,959. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 61% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. On the other hand, the 25 to 34 and 0 to 4 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.