Modbury Heights

Modbury Heights is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Modbury Heights' population is around 19,841 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 593 people (3.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 19,248 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 19,813 from the ABS as of June 2025 and an additional 47 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,002 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Modbury Heights' 3.1% growth since census positions it within 1.0 percentage points of the SA3 area (4.1%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 66.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections by age category, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation is expected, with the area expected to grow by 1,026 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting recording a gain of 5.0% in total over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Modbury Heights according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Modbury Heights has recorded approximately 56 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 284 homes were approved, with an additional 63 approved so far in FY-26. On average, each dwelling constructed over these years accommodates around 1.4 new residents per year.

This suggests a balance between supply and demand, contributing to stable market dynamics. The average construction cost value of new properties is $208,000, which is below regional norms, indicating more affordable housing options for purchasers. In the current financial year, there have been $30.5 million in commercial approvals, reflecting strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Adelaide, Modbury Heights shows approximately 61% of the construction activity per person.

Nationally, it ranks among the 36th percentile of areas assessed for construction activity, suggesting more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. This lower-than-average national activity reflects the area's maturity and potential planning constraints. Recent construction in Modbury Heights comprises 93.0% standalone homes and 7.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. The location has approximately 471 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area. Looking ahead, Modbury Heights is expected to grow by 998 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Modbury Heights has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 13thth percentile nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes to its local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 23 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include the Wynn Vale Grove Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Tea Tree Gully Sustainable Sewers Program, Tilley Recreation Park Indoor Training Facility, and Modbury Sporting Club Building and Sportsfield Lighting. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Modbury Heights demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Modbury Heights has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.3% as of December 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.0% over the past year. In December 2025, 10,564 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.5%, lower than Greater Adelaide's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation was on par with Greater Adelaide's 66.0%. According to Census responses, 10.0% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Notably, public administration & safety has employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Conversely, accommodation & food shows lower representation at 4.9% compared to the regional average of 6.8%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the working population versus resident population count. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 1.0%, while labour force increased by 1.0%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable. In comparison, Greater Adelaide saw employment grow by 4.2%, labour force expand by 3.9%, and unemployment fall by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Modbury Heights' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch aggregated latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023. Modbury Heights SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $54,261 and an average level of $60,254. These figures were lower than the national averages of $54,808 and $66,852 respectively for Greater Adelaide. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.17% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $59,779 (median) and $66,382 (average). The 2021 Census showed household, family, and personal incomes ranked modestly in Modbury Heights, between the 44th and 46th percentiles. Income analysis revealed that 35.4% of the population (7,023 individuals) fell within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the regional average of 31.8%. Housing costs were manageable with 87.0% retained, but disposable income was below average at the 48th percentile, and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Modbury Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Modbury Heights' dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 91.2% houses and 8.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Adelaide metro had 75.2% houses and 24.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Modbury Heights stood at 37.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 44.6% and rented ones at 18.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,500, below Adelaide metro's average of $1,562. Median weekly rent in Modbury Heights was $330, compared to Adelaide metro's $320. Nationally, Modbury Heights' mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Modbury Heights has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 76.1% of all households, including 34.3% couples with children, 28.5% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 23.9%, with lone person households at 22.0% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Greater Adelaide average of 2.5.

Modbury Heights performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

Modbury Heights' residents aged 15+ have lower university degree holders (21.8%) compared to Australia's 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common (15.0%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.3% holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.0%) and certificates (26.3%). Educational participation is high at 26.7%, with 10.3% in primary, 6.9% in secondary, and 4.5% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 101 active transport stops operating within Modbury Heights. These comprise a mix of buses serviced by 29 individual routes, collectively providing 2,337 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 199 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. Car remains the dominant mode at 87%, with 10% by bus. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 10.0% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 333 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 23 weekly trips per stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Modbury Heights's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Modbury Heights. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were found to be low, particularly among younger cohorts. The rate of private health cover was approximately 49%, which is lower than the Greater Adelaide average of 52.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions were arthritis (9.0%) and mental health issues (8.2%). A total of 66.9% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 67.9% across Greater Adelaide. Health outcomes among the working-age population are typical. Modbury Heights has 21.2% of residents aged 65 and over (4,206 people), higher than the Greater Adelaide average of 19.2%. Health outcomes among seniors in Modbury Heights are above average but rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Modbury Heights was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Modbury Heights had a higher proportion of cultural diversity than most local areas, with 16.2% speaking a language other than English at home and 26.8% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Modbury Heights, making up 43.4% of its population. The category 'Other' showed an overrepresentation in Modbury Heights compared to Greater Adelaide, with 2.5% versus 1.8%.

Regarding ancestry, English (31.0%), Australian (24.0%), and Other (7.8%) were the top groups represented. Some ethnic groups had notable differences: Polish was 1.3%, German was 5.7%, and Hungarian was 0.4% in Modbury Heights compared to regional averages of 1.0%, 5.1%, and 0.3% respectively.

Modbury Heights's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Modbury Heights is 41 years, higher than Greater Adelaide's average of 39 years and slightly above the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 65-74 make up 11.9% of the population, while those aged 25-34 comprise only 10.3%. Between 2021 and present, the proportion of people aged 75 to 84 has increased from 5.0% to 7.1%, while the percentage of those aged 55 to 64 has decreased from 13.7% to 11.9%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate that the 75 to 84 age group will increase by 509 people (36%), from 1,402 to 1,912. Notably, individuals aged 65 and above are expected to contribute to 58% of total population growth. Conversely, the populations of those aged 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 are projected to decline.