Modbury Heights

Modbury Heights is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Modbury Heights' population, as of February 2026, is approximately 20,270. This figure represents a growth of 1,022 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 19,248. The increase is inferred from the estimated resident population of 19,783 in June 2024 and an additional 46 validated new addresses post-census. This results in a population density of 2,045 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Modbury Heights' growth rate of 5.3% since the census is within 1.9 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 7.2%, indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 60.2% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections by age category are adopted, based on 2021 data and adjusted using weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Future population growth is expected to be just below the median of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch, with an increase of 1,096 persons projected by 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of approximately 3.0% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Modbury Heights according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Modbury Heights has seen approximately 56 residential properties granted approval annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, a total of 284 homes were approved, with an additional 39 approved so far in FY-26. On average, each dwelling constructed over these years accommodates around 1.4 new residents yearly.

This balance between supply and demand has maintained stable market conditions. The average construction value for new properties is $208,000, which is lower than regional levels, offering more affordable housing options for buyers. In FY-26, commercial approvals totalling $30.5 million have been registered, indicating strong commercial development momentum in the area. Compared to Greater Adelaide, Modbury Heights has about two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person.

Nationally, it ranks at the 36th percentile for areas assessed, suggesting limited housing choices and supporting demand for existing dwellings. Recent construction comprises mostly standalone homes (93.0%) with a smaller proportion of medium and high-density housing (7.0%), preserving Modbury Heights' traditional suburban character focused on family homes. With around 471 people per dwelling approval, Modbury Heights exhibits a developed market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, the area is projected to add approximately 609 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Modbury Heights has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 11thth percentile nationally

The performance of an area can significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 24 such projects that are likely to impact the area. Notable projects include the Wynn Vale Grove Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Tea Tree Gully Sustainable Sewers Program, Tilley Recreation Park Indoor Training Facility, and Modbury Sporting Club Building and Sportsfield Lighting. The following list details those projects considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Modbury Heights demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Modbury Heights has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate was 2.2% in September 2025, lower than Greater Adelaide's 3.9%. Employment grew by an estimated 1.4% over the past year.

As of September 2025, 10,574 residents were employed with a participation rate matching Greater Adelaide's 66.4%. Census responses indicated that 10.0% of residents worked from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Public administration & safety has notably high employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Conversely, accommodation & food employs only 4.9% of local workers compared to Greater Adelaide's 6.8%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 1.4%, labour force grew by 1.2%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Adelaide had employment growth of 3.0% and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Modbury Heights' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released on June 30, 2023, Modbury Heights SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $54,261 with an average level standing at $60,254. This is below the national average and compares to levels of $54,808 and $66,852 across Greater Adelaide respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.8% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $59,036 (median) and $65,556 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Modbury Heights, between the 44th and 46th percentiles. Income analysis shows that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 35.4% of residents (7,175 people), reflecting patterns seen in the region where 31.8% similarly occupy this range. Housing costs are manageable with 87.0% retained, though disposable income sits below average at the 48th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Modbury Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Modbury Heights' dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 91.2% houses and 8.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Adelaide metro's 75.2% houses and 24.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Modbury Heights was 37.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 44.6% and rented ones at 18.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,500, below Adelaide metro's average of $1,562. Median weekly rent was $330, compared to Adelaide metro's $320. Nationally, Modbury Heights' mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Modbury Heights has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 76.1% of all households, including 34.3% couples with children, 28.5% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 23.9%, with lone person households at 22.0% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Greater Adelaide average of 2.5.

Modbury Heights performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

Modbury Heights' residents aged 15+ with university degrees (21.8%) fall below the national average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common (15.0%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials, such as advanced diplomas (12.0%) and certificates (26.3%), are held by 38.3% of residents aged 15+. Educational participation is high, with 26.7% currently enrolled in formal education: primary (10.3%), secondary (6.9%), and tertiary (4.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 101 active public transport stops operating within Modbury Heights, consisting of bus services. These stops are served by 29 individual routes, collectively facilitating 2,337 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 199 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. The car remains the primary mode of transport at 87%, while 10% use buses. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 10.0% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 333 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 23 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Modbury Heights's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Modbury Heights. AreaSearch's assessment found low prevalence of common health conditions among younger cohorts. The rate of private health cover was very low at approximately 49% of the total population (~9,912 people), compared to 52.7% across Greater Adelaide and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions were arthritis (9.0%) and mental health issues (8.2%). 66.9% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 67.9% across Greater Adelaide. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 21.2% of residents aged 65 and over (4,295 people), which is higher than the 19.3% in Greater Adelaide. Health outcomes among seniors are above average but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Modbury Heights was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Modbury Heights' population showed higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 16.2% speaking a language other than English at home and 26.8% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion, making up 43.4% of residents. The 'Other' religious category had a higher representation in Modbury Heights at 2.5%, compared to Greater Adelaide's 1.8%.

In terms of ancestry, English (31.0%), Australian (24.0%), and Other (7.8%) were the top groups. Notably, Polish (1.3% vs regional 1.0%), German (5.7% vs 5.1%), and Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.3%) ethnicities were more prevalent in Modbury Heights than across Greater Adelaide.

Modbury Heights's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Modbury Heights is 41 years, higher than Greater Adelaide's average of 39 years and slightly above the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 years make up 11.7% of the population, while those aged 25-34 years constitute 10.1%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 5.0% to 7.2% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 age group has decreased from 13.7% to 11.9%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Modbury Heights' age structure. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to increase by 491 people (33%), growing from 1,467 to 1,959. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 61% of total population growth. Meanwhile, the 25 to 34 and 0 to 4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.