Hope Valley - Modbury

Population growth drivers in Hope Valley - Modbury are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Hope Valley - Modbury's population was around 18,527 as of May 2026, according to AreaSearch's analysis. This figure represents an increase of 1,031 people from the 2021 Census total of 17,496, marking a 5.9% growth rate. The population reached 18,424 by June 2025 and has since seen an addition of 625 validated new addresses. This results in a population density ratio of 1,797 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Hope Valley - Modbury's growth rate surpassed that of its SA3 area (4.1%), making it a regional growth leader. Overseas migration was identified as the primary driver for this population growth in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections by age category are adopted, based on 2021 data and released in 2023, with adjustments made using weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Future population trends suggest a median increase for statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch, with Hope Valley - Modbury expected to expand by 2,208 persons to reach approximately 20,735 by 2041, reflecting an overall gain of 11.4% over the 16-year period based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Hope Valley - Modbury among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Hope Valley - Modbury has seen approximately 193 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 969 homes. As of FY-26124 approvals have been recorded. On average, about 0.9 people per year moved to the area for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating supply meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction cost value of new homes is $220,000, lower than regional norms, offering more affordable housing options.

In FY-26, $74.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting high local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Adelaide, Hope Valley - Modbury has 129.0% more new home approvals per person, providing greater buyer choice and indicating robust developer interest. The area sees 69.0% standalone homes and 31.0% medium and high-density housing, offering varied price ranges from spacious family homes to compact options. With around 106 people per approval, it reflects a low density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Hope Valley - Modbury is projected to add 2,104 residents by 2041, suggesting current housing supply should meet demand and potentially enable growth exceeding forecasts.

Future projections show Hope Valley - Modbury adding 2,104 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Hope Valley - Modbury has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 10thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects that may affect the region. Notable projects include Valley View Golf Course Residential Release (Stages 3 & 4), Modbury Hospital Redevelopment Project, Luminaire Estate - Residential Development, and Euca Modbury Townhomes. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Hope Valley - Modbury has been broadly consistent with national averages

Hope Valley - Modbury has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.2%, with an estimated employment growth of 1.0% in the past year. As of December 2025, 8,870 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.6% lower than Greater Adelaide's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation lags behind Greater Adelaide at 58.8%. According to Census responses, only 8.9% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area has a strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence at 6.2%. There are 0.7 workers per resident, indicating above-normal local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 1.0% and labour force increased by 1.0%, keeping unemployment relatively stable. In comparison, Greater Adelaide saw employment growth of 4.2%, labour force expansion of 3.9%, and a 0.3 percentage point decrease in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Hope Valley - Modbury's employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023 shows median taxpayer income in Hope Valley - Modbury SA2 was $52,211. Average income stood at $57,411. Nationally, median and average incomes were higher at $54,808 and $66,852 respectively for Greater Adelaide. By March 2026, current estimates suggest median income will be approximately $57,521 and average income $63,250, based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.17% since June 2023. Census 2021 data indicates Hope Valley - Modbury incomes fall between the 21st and 24th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income distribution shows 31.5% (5,836 individuals) earn within $1,500-$2,999 range, similar to broader area at 31.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 21st percentile nationally.

Hope Valley - Modbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Hope Valley-Modbury, as per the latest Census evaluation, 75.8% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 24.2% being semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is similar to Adelaide metro's ratio of 75.2% houses and 24.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Hope Valley-Modbury stood at 33.3%, matching Adelaide metro's rate. Mortgaged dwellings comprised 37.6%, while rented dwellings made up 29.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,500, lower than Adelaide metro's average of $1,562 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Hope Valley-Modbury was $315, below Adelaide metro's $320 and the national figure of $375.

Hope Valley - Modbury features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.5% of all households, including 26.2% couples with children, 25.7% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.5%, with lone person households at 32.4% and group households comprising 3.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Adelaide average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Hope Valley - Modbury aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 25.8% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the SA4 region average of 19.8%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 17.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 34.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.6%) and certificates (23.5%).

Educational participation is high, with 25.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 5.8% in tertiary education, and 5.4% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Hope Valley - Modbury has 129 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 63 different routes that collectively facilitate 6,493 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 189 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential region, most residents commute outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 82% of residents, while buses are used by 13%. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 8.9% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 927 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 50 weekly trips per stop. A map accompanies this information, displaying the 100 nearest stops to the location's centerpoint.

Health performance in Hope Valley - Modbury is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Hope Valley-Modbury faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Prevalence of common health conditions was notable across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover was found to be very low at approximately 48% of the total population (around 8,818 people), compared to 52.7% across Greater Adelaide and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area were arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.8 and 8.3% of residents respectively, while 65.0% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 67.9% across Greater Adelaide. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 22.9% of residents aged 65 and over (4,242 people), which is higher than the 19.2% in Greater Adelaide. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Hope Valley - Modbury was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Hope Valley-Modbury was found to have a higher cultural diversity compared to most local markets, with 33.9% of its population born overseas and 27.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Hope Valley-Modbury, comprising 45.9% of its population. Notably, the 'Other' religious category makes up 4.6%, which is higher compared to Greater Adelaide's 1.8%.

In terms of ancestry, based on the country of birth of parents, the top three groups are English (25.8%), Australian (21.2%), and Other (12.0%). There are also notable differences in certain ethnic group representations: Polish is slightly overrepresented at 1.1% compared to the regional average of 1.0%, Italian at 6.9% versus 5.2%, and German at 5.2% compared to 5.1%.

Hope Valley - Modbury's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Hope Valley - Modbury is 40 years, similar to Greater Adelaide's average of 39 years but slightly older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 75-84 age group comprises 9.2% of the population, higher than Greater Adelaide's percentage. Conversely, the 15-24 age cohort makes up 10.2%, which is less prevalent compared to Greater Adelaide. According to post-2021 Census data, the 35-44 age group has increased from 13.9% to 15.6%. Meanwhile, the 65-74 age cohort has decreased from 10.2% to 9.3%. Population forecasts for 2041 suggest significant demographic changes in Hope Valley - Modbury. Notably, the 85+ age group is projected to grow by 69%, adding 562 people and reaching a total of 1,378 from 815. Conversely, the 65-74 age cohort is expected to decline by 30 people.