Hope Valley - Modbury
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Hope Valley - Modbury are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Hope Valley - Modbury's population was approximately 19,290 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 1,794 people from the 2021 Census total of 17,496, marking a 10.3% growth. The rise is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 18,216 in June 2024 and validated new addresses since then. This results in a density ratio of 1,871 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Hope Valley - Modbury's growth exceeded that of its SA3 area (4.5%) and the state, indicating it as a regional growth leader. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 91.3% of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections by age category are used, based on 2021 data and adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Future population trends project an above median growth for Australian statistical areas. By 2041, Hope Valley - Modbury is expected to expand by 2,429 persons, recording a total gain of 6.8% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Hope Valley - Modbury among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Hope Valley - Modbury has seen approximately 193 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 969 homes. As of FY-26, 59 approvals have been recorded. The average population growth per dwelling built in the area from FY-21 to FY-25 is 0.9 people per year. The supply of new dwellings meets or exceeds demand, offering more buyer choices and supporting potential population growth.

The average construction cost value for new homes is $220,000, which is below regional norms, providing more affordable housing options. In FY-26, $74.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Adelaide, Hope Valley - Modbury has 129.0% more new home approvals per person. This area records significantly higher developer interest than the national average. New building activity comprises approximately 69.0% standalone homes and 31.0% medium to high-density housing, offering choices across various price ranges.

The population growth rate is around 106 people per approval. Future projections estimate Hope Valley - Modbury will add 1,316 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Hope Valley - Modbury has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 18 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include the Modbury Hospital Redevelopment Project, Luminaire Estate - Residential Development, Euca Modbury Townhomes, and Valley View Golf Course Residential Release (Stage 3 & 4). The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Hope Valley - Modbury exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Hope Valley-Modbury has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.9%, having grown by 1.4% in the past year up to June 2025.

As of this date, 8,968 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.1% below Greater Adelaide's rate of 4.0%. Workforce participation is lower at 56.6%, compared to Greater Adelaide's 61.7%. Major employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area has a strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence at 6.2%, compared to the regional average of 7.3%. There is one worker for every resident, indicating ample local employment opportunities. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.4% and labour force grew by 1.3%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Adelaide saw employment grow by 2.1%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May 2025) project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Hope Valley-Modbury's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Hope Valley - Modbury had a median income among taxpayers of $49,086 and an average level of $55,184. These figures are lower than the national averages of $52,592 and $64,886 for Greater Adelaide respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.83% since financial year 2022, current estimates suggest approximately $55,384 (median) and $62,264 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family and personal incomes in Hope Valley - Modbury all fall between the 21st and 24th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 31.5% of the population (6,076 individuals) have incomes within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to the broader area where this cohort also represents 31.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Hope Valley - Modbury, with only 83.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 21st percentile.

Hope Valley - Modbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Hope Valley - Modbury, as per the latest Census evaluation, 75.8% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 24.2% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. In comparison, Adelaide metro had 88.6% houses and 11.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Hope Valley - Modbury stood at 33.3%, with mortgaged properties at 37.6% and rented ones at 29.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,500, lower than Adelaide metro's average of $1,517. Median weekly rent in the area was $315, compared to Adelaide metro's $330. Nationally, Hope Valley - Modbury's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Hope Valley - Modbury features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 64.5% of all households, including 26.2% couples with children, 25.7% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.5%, with lone person households making up 32.4% and group households comprising 3.2%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Adelaide average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Hope Valley - Modbury aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 25.8% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the SA4 region average of 19.8%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 17.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 34.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas comprise 10.6% and certificates make up 23.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 25.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 5.8% in tertiary education, and 5.4% pursuing secondary education. Seven schools operate within Hope Valley - Modbury, educating approximately 3,351 students. The area's schools demonstrate typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1030) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes three primary, two secondary, and two K-12 schools.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Hope Valley-Modbury has 129 active public transport stops. These are served by 57 bus routes, offering a total of 6,454 weekly passenger trips. The average distance to the nearest stop for residents is 189 meters.

There are approximately 922 daily trips across all routes, which translates to about 50 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Hope Valley - Modbury is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Hope Valley-Modbury faces significant health challenges, with a notable prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 48% of the total population (~9,182 people) has private health cover, compared to Greater Adelaide's 50.0%. Nationally, this figure stands at 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are arthritis (affecting 9.8%) and mental health issues (8.3%). Conversely, 65.0% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to Greater Adelaide's 66.3%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 23.2% (4,465 people), than Greater Adelaide's 21.2%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

Hope Valley - Modbury was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Hope Valley-Modbury has a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 33.9% of its population born overseas and 27.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Hope Valley-Modbury, accounting for 45.9% of its population. However, the category 'Other' is more prevalent here at 4.6%, compared to 2.1% across Greater Adelaide.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (25.8%), Australian (21.2%), and Other (12.0%). Notably, Polish people make up 1.1% of Hope Valley-Modbury's population, Italian 6.9%, and German 5.2%, all higher than their respective regional averages.

Hope Valley - Modbury's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Hope Valley - Modbury is 40 years, similar to Greater Adelaide's average of 39 years but somewhat older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 75-84 age group comprises 9.2% of the population, higher than Greater Adelaide's percentage. Conversely, the 15-24 cohort makes up 10.2%, less prevalent compared to Greater Adelaide. Post-Census data from 2021 shows that the 35-44 age group has increased from 13.9% to 15.3%. Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 10.0% to 9.3%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Hope Valley - Modbury. Notably, the 85+ group is projected to grow by 63%, reaching 1,428 people from 873. The combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 62% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0-4 and 5-14 cohorts are forecasted to experience population declines.