Hope Valley - Modbury

Population growth drivers in Hope Valley - Modbury are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Hope Valley - Modbury's population is around 19,911 as of February 2026. This reflects an increase of 2,415 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,496 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 18,177 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 610 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,931 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Hope Valley - Modbury's growth rate of 13.8% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA3 area (7.2%) and the state level, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 91.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections are adopted with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Moving forward with demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of Australian statistical areas is expected. The area is expected to increase by 2,429 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 3.5% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Hope Valley - Modbury among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Hope Valley - Modbury has received approximately 193 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 969 homes. As of FY26, 83 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.9 people have moved to the area annually for each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction cost value of new homes in the area is $220,000, which is below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options.

In FY26, commercial development approvals worth $74.1 million have been recorded, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Adelaide, Hope Valley - Modbury has seen 129.0% more new home approvals per person, providing buyers with greater choice and indicating robust developer interest in the area. In terms of housing types, approximately 69.0% are standalone homes, while 31.0% are medium to high-density housing. This mix offers a range of options across price ranges, from spacious family homes to more compact, affordable choices. With around 106 people moving in per dwelling approval, Hope Valley - Modbury reflects a developing area.

According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, the area is projected to add 695 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Hope Valley - Modbury has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 7thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 19 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones are Valley View Golf Course Residential Release (Stages 3 & 4), Modbury Hospital Redevelopment Project, Luminaire Estate - Residential Development, and Modbury Hospital Redevelopment. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Hope Valley - Modbury exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Hope Valley - Modbury has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate as of September 2025 was 3.1%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.4%.

There were 8,878 residents employed by September 2025, with an unemployment rate 0.9% lower than Greater Adelaide's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in Hope Valley - Modbury was 59.6%, compared to Greater Adelaide's 66.4%. According to Census responses, 8.9% of residents worked from home. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction sectors.

The area shows strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services have limited presence at 6.2%, compared to the regional average of 7.3%. The worker-to-resident ratio as at the Census was 0.7, indicating local employment opportunities above the norm. During the year to September 2025, employment levels increased by 1.4% and labour force grew by 1.3%, keeping unemployment broadly flat. In comparison, Greater Adelaide saw employment grow by 3.0%, labour force expand by 2.9%, and unemployment fall by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Hope Valley - Modbury's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 indicates Hope Valley - Modbury SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $52,211 and an average income of $57,411. These figures are lower than the national averages of $54,808 (median) and $66,852 (average) for Greater Adelaide. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.8% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $56,806 (median) and $62,463 (average). Census 2021 income data shows Hope Valley - Modbury's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 21st and 24th percentiles nationally. Income distribution reveals that 31.5% of the population (6,271 individuals) earn within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to the broader area where this cohort represents 31.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 21st percentile.

Hope Valley - Modbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Hope Valley-Modbury, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.8% houses and 24.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is similar to Adelaide metro's figures of 75.2% houses and 24.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Hope Valley-Modbury was at 33.3%, with the rest being mortgaged (37.6%) or rented (29.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,500, lower than Adelaide metro's average of $1,562. Median weekly rent in Hope Valley-Modbury was recorded at $315, compared to Adelaide metro's figure of $320. Nationally, Hope Valley-Modbury's median monthly mortgage repayment is significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Hope Valley - Modbury features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.5% of all households, consisting of 26.2% couples with children, 25.7% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.5%, with lone person households at 32.4% and group households comprising 3.2%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Adelaide average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Hope Valley - Modbury aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's educational profile stands out regionally with university qualification rates at 25.8% of residents aged 15+, exceeding the SA4 region average of 19.8%. Bachelor degrees lead at 17.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 6.5% and graduate diplomas at 1.9%. Trade and technical skills are prominently featured, with 34.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 10.6% and certificates at 23.5%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 8.7% in primary education, 5.8% in tertiary education, and 5.4% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Hope Valley-Modbury has 129 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These are served by 63 different routes that together facilitate 6,493 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 189 meters from their nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards daily due to the area's predominantly residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 82% of residents, while 13% opt for buses. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, only 8.9% of residents work from home, a figure that may have been influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Each route averages approximately 50 weekly trips per stop, with service frequency across all routes totaling 927 daily trips. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centerpoint.

Health performance in Hope Valley - Modbury is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Hope Valley - Modbury faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~9,477 people), compared to 52.7% across Greater Adelaide and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.8 and 8.3% of residents respectively, while 65.0% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 67.9% across Greater Adelaide. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 23.3% of residents aged 65 and over (4,631 people), which is higher than the 19.3% in Greater Adelaide. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Hope Valley - Modbury was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Hope Valley-Modbury had a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 33.9% of its population born overseas and 27.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Hope Valley-Modbury, comprising 45.9% of its population. The 'Other' category showed an overrepresentation in Hope Valley-Modbury, with 4.6% compared to the regional average of 1.8%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (25.8%), Australian (21.2%), and Other (12.0%). Some ethnic groups had notable differences: Polish at 1.1% (vs regional 1.0%), Italian at 6.9% (vs 5.2%), and German at 5.2% (vs 5.1%).

Hope Valley - Modbury's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Hope Valley - Modbury is 41 years, which is higher than Greater Adelaide's average of 39 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 years make up 9.3% of the population, while those aged 15-24 years comprise 10.3%. Between 2021 and present, the proportion of the population aged 35 to 44 has increased from 13.9% to 15.5%, while the proportion of those aged 65 to 74 has decreased from 10.2% to 9.4%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate that the number of people aged 85 and above will rise significantly, increasing by 518 people (57%) from 909 to 1,428. The combined age groups of 65+ are projected to account for 68% of total population growth. Conversely, the populations aged 25-34 and 55-64 are expected to decline.