Hope Valley - Modbury
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Hope Valley - Modbury are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Hope Valley - Modbury's population is approximately 19,056 as of Aug 2025. This represents an increase of 1,560 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 17,496. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 18,215 in Jun 2024 and an additional 493 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,848 persons per square kilometer, higher than the national average assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 8.9% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA3 area (4.2%) and the state level, indicating it as a region with significant population growth. Overseas migration contributed approximately 91.3% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving this growth.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections are used with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Future demographic trends project an above median population growth for Australian statistical areas, with Hope Valley - Modbury expected to expand by 2,429 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, recording an overall gain of 8.1% over this period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Hope Valley - Modbury among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Hope Valley-Modbury has seen approximately 193 dwellings granted development approval annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics provides development approval data on a financial year basis. Between FY2021 and FY2025, this totalled 969 approvals. As of FY2026, there have been 41 approvals.

On average, 0.9 new residents per year arrive for each new home over the past five financial years. New supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new dwellings is $323,000, which is under regional levels, indicating more accessible housing choices for buyers. In FY2026, $74.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Adelaide, Hope Valley-Modbury records 129.0% more development activity per person, offering buyers greater choice and indicating significant developer interest in the area.

New building activity comprises 69.0% standalone homes and 31.0% medium and high-density housing, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points. With around 106 people per dwelling approval, Hope Valley-Modbury shows characteristics of a growth area. Future projections show the area adding approximately 1,550 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Hope Valley - Modbury has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

The performance of a region is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects that are anticipated to impact the area. Notable among these are the Modbury Hospital Redevelopment Project, North East Public Transport Study - O-Bahn Extension, Luminaire Estate - Residential Development, and Euca Modbury Townhomes. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The employment environment in Hope Valley - Modbury shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Hope Valley - Modbury has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.9%, lower than Greater Adelaide's 4.0%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.4%. As of June 2025, 8,968 residents are employed while the unemployment rate stands at 1.1% below Greater Adelaide's rate. Workforce participation is 56.6%, lower than Greater Adelaide's 61.7%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Transport, postal & warehousing shows strong specialization with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical has lower representation at 6.2% compared to the regional average of 7.3%. The ratio of 0.7 workers per resident indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. During the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.4% and labour force grew by 1.3%, leading to a decrease in unemployment by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Adelaide saw employment rise by 2.1% with a marginal increase in unemployment. State-level data to Sep-25 shows SA employment growth of 1.06% year-on-year, adding 9,370 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.5%, aligning with the national rate of 4.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Hope Valley - Modbury's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2022, Hope Valley - Modbury had a median taxpayer income of $49,086 and an average income of $55,184. Both figures are below the national averages of $52,592 and $64,886 respectively for Greater Adelaide. Adjusting for Wage Price Index growth of 10.83% since financial year 2022, estimated median income in Hope Valley - Modbury as of March 2025 is approximately $54,402, with average income at $61,160. Census figures from 2021 show household, family, and personal incomes in Hope Valley - Modbury fall between the 21st and 24th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that the largest segment comprises 31.5% of residents earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly. This pattern is similar to the broader area where 31.8% of residents occupy this income range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Hope Valley - Modbury, with only 83.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 21st percentile nationally.

Hope Valley - Modbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Hope Valley - Modbury, as per the latest Census, comprised 75.8% houses and 24.2% other dwellings. In comparison, Adelaide metro had 88.6% houses and 11.3% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Hope Valley - Modbury was at 33.3%, with the remainder being mortgaged (37.6%) or rented (29.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,500, lower than Adelaide metro's average of $1,517. The median weekly rent figure was $315, compared to Adelaide metro's $330. Nationally, Hope Valley - Modbury's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,863 and rents substantially below the national average of $375.

Hope Valley - Modbury features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 64.5% of all households, including 26.2% couples with children, 25.7% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute 35.5%, with lone person households at 32.4% and group households at 3.2%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Greater Adelaide average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Hope Valley - Modbury aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 25.8% for residents aged 15+, surpassing the SA4 region average of 19.8%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 17.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 34.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 10.6% and certificates at 23.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 25.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 5.8% in tertiary education, and 5.4% pursuing secondary education. A total of 7 schools operate within Hope Valley - Modbury, educating approximately 3,351 students. Hope Valley - Modbury demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1030) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes 3 primary, 2 secondary, and 2 K-12 schools.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Hope Valley - Modbury shows that there are currently 129 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 57 individual routes providing service to the region. Collectively, these routes facilitate 6,454 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of public transport in the area is rated as excellent, with residents typically located an average of 189 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, there are 922 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 50 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Hope Valley - Modbury is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Hope Valley-Modbury faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~9,070 people), compared to Greater Adelaide's 50.0% and the national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis (affecting 9.8% of residents) and mental health issues (8.3%), while 65.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Adelaide's 66.3%.

The area has 23.2% of residents aged 65 and over (4,411 people), higher than Greater Adelaide's 21.2%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Hope Valley - Modbury was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Hope Valley-Modbury was found to have higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 33.9% of its population born overseas and 27.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Hope Valley-Modbury, comprising 45.9% of its population. The category 'Other' shows significant overrepresentation, making up 4.6% compared to Greater Adelaide's 2.1%.

Top ancestry groups are English (25.8%), Australian (21.2%), and Other (12.0%). Polish (1.1%) is slightly overrepresented compared to the regional average of 1.2%, Italian at 6.9% (vs regional 5.5%), and German at 5.2% (vs regional 5.8%).

Hope Valley - Modbury's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Hope Valley - Modbury is 40 years, similar to Greater Adelaide's average of 39 years but somewhat older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 75-84 age group comprises 9.2% of the population compared to Greater Adelaide, while the 15-24 cohort makes up 10.2%. According to data from the 2021 Census, the 35-44 age group has grown from 13.9% to 15.3%, and conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 10.0% to 9.3%. Population forecasts for Hope Valley - Modbury indicate substantial demographic changes by 2041. Notably, the 85+ age group is projected to grow by 65%, reaching 1,428 people from 863, and the combined 65+ age groups will account for 57% of total population growth. However, the 65-74 cohort is projected to decline by 99 people.