Hope Valley - Modbury

Population growth drivers in Hope Valley - Modbury are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Hope Valley - Modbury's population is around 19,911 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 2,415 people (13.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,496 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 18,177 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 610 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,931 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Hope Valley - Modbury's 13.8% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (7.2%) and the state, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 91.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections by age category, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Moving forward with demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of Australian statistical areas is expected, with the area expected to increase by 2,429 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 3.5% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Hope Valley - Modbury among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Hope Valley - Modbury has experienced around 193 dwellings receiving development approval per year, totalling 969 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26102 approvals have been recorded. With an average of only 0.9 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is meeting or surpassing demand, providing greater buyer choice and supporting potential for population growth above projections. New homes are being built at an average value of $220,000‚—below regional norms—reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers. Additionally, $74.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity.

When measured against Greater Adelaide, Hope Valley - Modbury records 129.0% more new home approvals (per person), offering buyers greater choice. This activity is significantly above the national average, indicating robust developer interest in the area. New building activity shows 69.0% standalone homes and 31.0% medium and high-density housing, featuring an increasing blend of attached housing types offering choices across price ranges, from spacious family homes to more accessible compact options. At around 106 people per approval, Hope Valley - Modbury reflects a developing area.

Future projections show Hope Valley - Modbury adding 695 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Hope Valley - Modbury has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 7thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 19 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Valley View Golf Course Residential Release (Stage 3 & 4), Modbury Hospital Redevelopment Project, Luminaire Estate - Residential Development, and Modbury Hospital Redevelopment, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Hope Valley - Modbury has been broadly consistent with national averages

Hope Valley - Modbury possesses a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of only 3.2%, and 1.0% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 8,870 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.6% below Greater Adelaide's rate of 3.8%, and workforce participation lags significantly (59.6% compared to Greater Adelaide's 67.2%). Based on Census responses, a low 8.9% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area shows particularly strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. Meanwhile, professional & technical services have a limited presence with 6.2% employment compared to 7.3% regionally. The ratio of 0.7 workers for each resident, as at the Census, indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 1.0% and the labour force increased by 1.0%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. This compares to Greater Adelaide, where employment grew by 4.2%, the labour force expanded by 3.9%, and unemployment fell 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Hope Valley - Modbury. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Hope Valley - Modbury's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Hope Valley - Modbury SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $52,211 with the average level standing at $57,411. This is lower than average on a national basis and compares to levels of $54,808 and $66,852 across Greater Adelaide respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.8% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $56,806 (median) and $62,463 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Hope Valley - Modbury all fall between the 21st and 24th percentiles nationally. Looking at income distribution, 31.5% of the population (6,271 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, aligning with the broader area where this cohort likewise represents 31.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 21st percentile.

Hope Valley - Modbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Hope Valley - Modbury, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 75.8% houses and 24.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Adelaide metro's 75.2% houses and 24.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Hope Valley - Modbury was in line with that of Adelaide metro, at 33.3%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (37.6%) or rented (29.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Adelaide metro average at $1,500, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $315, compared to Adelaide metro's $1,562 and $320. Nationally, Hope Valley - Modbury's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Hope Valley - Modbury features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 64.5% of all households, comprising 26.2% couples with children, 25.7% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.5%, with lone person households at 32.4% and group households comprising 3.2% of the total. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Greater Adelaide average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Hope Valley - Modbury aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's educational profile stands out regionally, with university qualification rates (25.8% of residents aged 15+) exceeding the SA4 region average of 19.8%, reflecting the community's emphasis on higher education. Bachelor degrees lead at 17.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 34.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.6%) and certificates (23.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 5.8% in tertiary education, and 5.4% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 129 active transport stops operating within Hope Valley - Modbury comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 63 individual routes, collectively providing 6,493 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 189 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 82%, with 13% by bus. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling, below the regional average. A relatively low 8.9% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 927 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 50 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Hope Valley - Modbury is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Hope Valley - Modbury faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~9,477 people). This compares to 52.7% across Greater Adelaide and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.8% and 8.3% of residents, respectively, while 65.0% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 67.9% across Greater Adelaide. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 23.3% of residents aged 65 and over (4,631 people), which is higher than the 19.3% in Greater Adelaide. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Hope Valley - Modbury was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Hope Valley - Modbury was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 33.9% of its population born overseas and 27.6% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Hope Valley - Modbury is Christianity, which makes up 45.9% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 4.6% of the population, compared to 1.8% across Greater Adelaide.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Hope Valley - Modbury are English, comprising 25.8% of the population, Australian, comprising 21.2% of the population, and Other, comprising 12.0% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Polish is notably overrepresented at 1.1% of Hope Valley - Modbury (vs 1.0% regionally), Italian at 6.9% (vs 5.2%) and German at 5.2% (vs 5.1%).

Hope Valley - Modbury's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The 41-year median age in Hope Valley - Modbury is somewhat higher than Greater Adelaide's average of 39 as well as modestly exceeding the 38-year national average. The age profile shows 75 - 84 year-olds are particularly prominent (9.3%), while the 15 - 24 group is comparatively smaller (10.3%) than in Greater Adelaide. In the period since 2021, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 13.9% to 15.5% of the population. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 10.2% to 9.4%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Hope Valley - Modbury's age structure. The 85+ age cohort is projected to rise substantially, expanding by 518 people (57%) from 909 to 1,428. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 68% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. On the other hand, the 25 to 34 and 55 to 64 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.