Hope Valley - Modbury

Population growth drivers in Hope Valley - Modbury are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Hope Valley - Modbury's population is around 19,290 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,794 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,496 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 18,216 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 594 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,871 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Hope Valley - Modbury's growth rate of 10.3% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (4.5%) and the state, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 91.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered and years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections by age category are adopted with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, the area is expected to expand by 2,429 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 6.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Hope Valley - Modbury among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Hope Valley - Modbury has seen approximately 193 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 969 homes. As of FY26, 72 approvals have been recorded. On average, around 0.9 people move to the area per year for each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25, indicating supply meets or exceeds demand. The average construction cost of new homes is $220,000, below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options.

This financial year has seen $74.1 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting high local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Adelaide, Hope Valley - Modbury records 129.0% more new home approvals per person, providing greater buyer choice and indicating robust developer interest. New building activity comprises approximately 69.0% standalone homes and 31.0% medium and high-density housing, offering choices across price ranges. With around 106 people per approval, the area reflects ongoing development. Future projections estimate Hope Valley - Modbury to add 1,316 residents by 2041, with current construction levels expected to meet demand and potentially enable growth exceeding forecasts.

Future projections show Hope Valley - Modbury adding 1,316 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Hope Valley - Modbury has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 11thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects that may affect this region. Notable projects include Valley View Golf Course Residential Release (Stages 3 & 4), Modbury Hospital Redevelopment Project, Luminaire Estate - Residential Development, and Euca Modbury Townhomes. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Hope Valley - Modbury exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Hope Valley - Modbury has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.1% in September 2025, lower than Greater Adelaide's 3.9%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.4%. There were 8,878 residents employed as of September 2025, with a workforce participation rate of 56.6%, below Greater Adelaide's 61.7%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Transport, postal & warehousing shows strong specialization, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence at 6.2%, compared to the regional average of 7.3%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.7, indicating above-normal local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 1.4% while unemployment remained broadly flat. In Greater Adelaide during this period, employment grew by 3.0%, labour force expanded by 2.9%, and unemployment fell slightly to 3.8%. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows SA employment grew by 1.19% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.0%, outperforming the national average of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Hope Valley - Modbury's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data shows Hope Valley - Modbury SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $49,086 and an average income of $55,184 in financial year 2022. These figures are lower than national averages, which were $52,592 and $64,886 respectively across Greater Adelaide. Based on a 12.83% increase from the Wage Price Index since FY2022, estimated median income is approximately $55,384 and average income is around $62,264 by September 2025. Census 2021 data indicates Hope Valley - Modbury incomes fall between the 21st to 24th percentiles nationally for household, family, and personal incomes. Income distribution shows 31.5% of residents (6,076 individuals) earn within the $1,500-$2,999 range, similar to broader area figures at 31.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.1% of income remaining after expenses, ranking at the 21st percentile nationally.

Hope Valley - Modbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Hope Valley - Modbury, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.8% houses and 24.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Adelaide metro's 88.6% houses and 11.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Hope Valley - Modbury stood at 33.3%, with the rest being mortgaged (37.6%) or rented (29.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,500, below Adelaide metro's average of $1,517. Median weekly rent was recorded at $315, compared to Adelaide metro's $330. Nationally, Hope Valley - Modbury's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Hope Valley - Modbury features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.5% of all households, including 26.2% couples with children, 25.7% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for 35.5%, with lone person households at 32.4% and group households comprising 3.2%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Adelaide average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Hope Valley - Modbury aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 25.8% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the SA4 region average of 19.8%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 17.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 34.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 10.6% and certificates at 23.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 25.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 8.7% in primary, 5.8% in tertiary, and 5.4% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Hope Valley - Modbury has 129 active public transport stops. These are served by 57 different bus routes that together facilitate 6,454 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents on average located just 189 meters from their nearest stop.

On average, there are 922 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 50 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Hope Valley - Modbury is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Hope Valley - Modbury faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~9,182 people), compared to 50.0% across Greater Adelaide and a national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.8 and 8.3% of residents respectively, while 65.0% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 66.3% across Greater Adelaide.

The area has 23.2% of residents aged 65 and over (4,465 people), which is higher than the 21.2% in Greater Adelaide. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Hope Valley - Modbury was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Hope Valley-Modbury has a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 33.9% of its population born overseas and 27.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Hope Valley-Modbury, accounting for 45.9% of its population. The category 'Other' has an overrepresentation in Hope Valley-Modbury compared to Greater Adelaide, with 4.6% and 2.1%, respectively.

In terms of ancestry, English is the top group at 25.8%, followed by Australian at 21.2%, and Other at 12.0%. Some ethnic groups show notable variations: Polish (1.1% vs regional average of 1.2%), Italian (6.9% vs 5.5%), and German (5.2% vs 5.8%).

Hope Valley - Modbury's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Hope Valley - Modbury is 40 years, similar to Greater Adelaide's average of 39 years but somewhat older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 75-84 age group comprises 9.2% of the population compared to Greater Adelaide, while the 15-24 cohort makes up 10.2%. According to data from the 2021 Census, the 35-44 age group grew from 13.9% to 15.3% of the population. Conversely, the 55-64 age group declined from 10.0% to 9.3%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Hope Valley - Modbury. The 85+ age group is expected to grow by 63%, reaching 1,428 people from 873. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 62% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0-4 and 5-14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.