Modbury North

Modbury North is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, the estimated population of Modbury North as of May 2026 is around 6,114. This reflects an increase of 410 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,704. The change is inferred from the resident population of 6,110 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 29 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,145 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Modbury North's growth of 7.2% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth of 4.1%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 60.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered and years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections by age category are adopted with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Future population trends expect an increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation, with Modbury North expected to increase by 376 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 6.1% in total over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Modbury North according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Modbury North averaged approximately 23 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 117 homes. As of FY-26, 19 approvals have been recorded. The average new residents per year per dwelling constructed was 1.1 between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. However, recent data shows this has increased to 5.3 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, reflecting Modbury North's growing popularity and potential supply constraints. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $299,000.

This year, there have been $10.5 million in commercial approvals, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Adelaide, Modbury North records 16.0% less building activity per person, and it ranks among the 33rd percentile of areas assessed nationally, offering limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. Recent construction comprises 89.0% standalone homes and 11.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining Modbury North's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

The area has approximately 491 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established location. Looking ahead, Modbury North is projected to grow by 372 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Modbury North has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 33rdth percentile nationally

Eight projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. These include the Modbury Sporting Club Building and Sportsfield Lighting project, the Tilley Recreation Park Indoor Training Facility, the Valley View Golf Course Residential Release (Stage 3 & 4), and the ECH Encore Apartments Modbury project.

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The labour market in Modbury North shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Modbury North has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.5% as of December 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.8% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of that date, 3,141 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.3% lower than Greater Adelaide's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in Modbury North was somewhat below standard at 63.8%, compared to Greater Adelaide's 66.0%. According to Census responses, only 9.8% of residents worked from home, although Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction sectors.

In contrast, professional & technical services employed just 5.8% of local workers, below Greater Adelaide's 7.3%. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 1.8%, while labour force increased by 1.8%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable in Modbury North. This contrasts with Greater Adelaide where employment grew by 4.2%, labour force expanded by 3.9%, and unemployment fell by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insights into potential future demand within Modbury North. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Modbury North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes that does not take into account localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Modbury North has an income below the national average. The median income is $48,835 and the average income stands at $54,573. This contrasts with Greater Adelaide's figures of a median income of $54,808 and an average income of $66,852. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.17% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Modbury North would be approximately $53,802 (median) and $60,123 (average) as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Modbury North rank modestly, between the 37th and 41st percentiles. The income distribution shows that 37.2% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999, consistent with the metropolitan region's trend of 31.8% in the same category. After housing expenses, 86.4% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Modbury North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Modbury North's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 95.6% houses and 4.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Adelaide metro's 75.2% houses and 24.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Modbury North stood at 37.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 44.2% and rented ones at 18.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,473, below Adelaide metro's average of $1,562. Median weekly rent in Modbury North was $360, compared to Adelaide metro's $320. Nationally, mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Modbury North has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 76.8% of all households, including 33.5% couples with children, 29.3% couples without children, and 12.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 23.2%, with lone person households at 20.8% and group households making up 2.5%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Greater Adelaide average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Modbury North aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Modbury North's educational qualifications trail regional benchmarks; 22.9% of its residents aged 15+ have university degrees compared to Australia's 30.4%. This gap suggests potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them; advanced diplomas account for 12.7% and certificates for 25.8%.

Educational participation is high at 26.7%, including 9.8% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 4.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Modbury North has 33 operational public transport stops, all bus services. These are covered by 24 different routes, offering a total of 2,091 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is high, with residents on average 194 meters from the nearest stop. Most commuters travel outwards daily. Cars remain dominant at 88%, with buses at 10%. Average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.5.

According to the 2021 Census, 9.8% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 298 trips daily across all routes, equating to around 63 weekly trips per stop.

Modbury North's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Health data shows positive outcomes for Modbury North residents. Mortality rates and health conditions are largely comparable to national benchmarks. Common health conditions are seen across both young and old age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is low at approximately 49% (2,972 people), compared to Greater Adelaide's 52.7%. Nationally, it stands at 55.7%. Arthritis and asthma are the most common medical conditions, affecting 9.0% and 7.9% of residents respectively. 66.7% of residents claim to be free from medical ailments, compared to Greater Adelaide's 67.9%. Health outcomes among working-age individuals are typical. The area has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 23.1% (1,412 people), compared to Greater Adelaide's 19.2%. National rankings for health indicators are largely in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Modbury North was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Modbury North had a higher cultural diversity compared to most local areas, with 30.2% of its population born overseas and 21.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Modbury North, accounting for 41.9% of the population. The category 'Other' showed an overrepresentation in Modbury North, comprising 3.7% compared to 1.8% across Greater Adelaide.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (28.7%), Australian (22.5%), and Other (9.3%). There were notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Polish was overrepresented at 1.4%, German at 5.4%, and Welsh at 0.7%.

Modbury North's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Modbury North is 40 years, similar to Greater Adelaide's average of 39 years but somewhat older than Australia's 38 years. The 65-74 age group comprises 12.5% of the population, higher than Greater Adelaide's percentage, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 11.1%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group has increased from 5.5% to 8.1% of the population. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 11.1% to 9.1%. Population forecasts for Modbury North indicate substantial demographic changes by 2041. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 31%, reaching 649 people from 495, leading the demographic shift. Notably, combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 54% of total population growth, reflecting Modbury North's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0-4 and 55-64 cohorts are predicted to experience population declines.