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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
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Modbury North has an estimated 6,114 residents, up from 5,704 at the 2021 Census — a change of 410 people, or 7.2%. Growth has averaged 1.0% a year over five years. Overseas migration accounts for 60.0% of that increase. That puts 2,145 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census the suburb of Modbury North has a population estimated at around 6,114 as of May 2026. This represents a growth of 410 people (7.2%) since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 5,704 people. The change is calculated from the resident population of 6,110, estimated by AreaSearch following analysis of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2025) and an additional 29 validated new addresses since the Census date.
This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,145 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. In the suburb of Modbury North, the 7.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (4.1%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 60.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections by age category, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. As future demographic shifts are analysed in the suburb of Modbury North, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation is expected, with the area expected to increase by 376 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 6.1% in total over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
159 new dwellings have been approved in Modbury North over the past five years, an average of 31 a year. That places the area in the 58th percentile for residential development activity nationally, about 5 approvals per 1,000 residents a year. Of the 27 dwellings approved in the latest reporting year, 89% were detached houses and the rest townhouses or apartments. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 66, running ahead of that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
According to AreaSearch evaluations of ABS building approval statistics distributed from regional data, approximately 31 new dwellings have been approved annually in the locality, yielding an estimated total of 159 residences over the preceding 5 financial years. Thus far in FY-26, 61 approvals have been registered. Assuming an average of 1.8 new occupants per year for each built dwelling over the 5 financial years between FY-21 and FY-25, demand matches supply closely to sustain a balanced market, with new residential projects built at a mean value of $299,000. Additionally, commercial approvals have reached $10.5 million this financial year, showing moderate commercial construction activity.
In comparison to Greater Adelaide, building activity is slightly higher (14.0% above the regional average per capita over the 5 year period), offering purchasers varied options while underpinning existing home valuations. Modern building projects consist of 89.0% separate houses and 11.0% townhouses or multi-unit dwellings, reinforcing the low-density residential character that appeals to households prioritizing space. The district has a ratio of about 196 people for each dwelling approval, suggesting a growing market. Looking forward, the population is projected to expand by 372 residents through to 2041 based on the most recent AreaSearch quarterly calculations. With the current pace of construction, new residential options should easily satisfy demand, creating favorable buying conditions and potentially driving expansion beyond projected estimates.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Modbury North
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
|---|
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 2 current infrastructure and development projects inside Modbury North, worth an estimated $53 million. A further 30 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $3.32 billion. 6 are already under construction and 4 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans transport & logistics, residential development and health & medical. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local infrastructure projects, developments, and zoning updates are major drivers of neighborhood change. AreaSearch has tracked a total of 8 projects that are expected to influence the local area. Notable projects include the Modbury Sporting Club Building and Sportsfield Lighting, the Tilley Recreation Park Indoor Training Facility, the Valley View Golf Course Residential Release (Stage 3 & 4), and the ECH Encore Apartments Modbury, with details on the most significant initiatives provided in the following list.
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Modbury Sporting Club building project
Completed council-led redevelopment delivering a new two-storey clubroom facility for Modbury Sporting Club at Ridgehaven, jointly funded by the City of Tea Tree Gully and the State Government. The project delivered four unisex change rooms, umpire rooms, function space and amenities to support the Modbury Football and Cricket clubs and their 700-plus players and members.
ECH Encore Apartments Modbury
Modern retirement accommodation featuring Livable Housing Design Australia Gold Accreditation. 77 dwelling 4-8 level retirement living apartment and allied health services development featuring an integrated early childhood centre. Located within 5 minutes of local shops and public transport.
Tea Tree Gully Sustainable Sewers Program
SA Water program to transfer approximately 4,700 properties in the City of Tea Tree Gully from a council run Community Wastewater Management System with on site septic tanks to a modern sewer network. Delivery is being rolled out in zones between 2022 and 2028 to improve service reliability and public health outcomes.
Modbury Hospital Redevelopment Project
The $117 million major upgrade of Modbury Hospital includes a state-of-the-art Health Precinct with a brand-new Cancer Centre featuring 12 chemotherapy chairs, and a new Mental Health Precinct with 44 beds (24 mental health rehabilitation beds and a 20-bed older persons mental health unit). The project also delivers a new five-storey multi-deck car park with over 300 spaces, marking the re-introduction of cancer services to the hospital after a decade. Expected completion is December 2025.
Springbank Waters Residential Estate
A large, master-planned residential community completed in stages over two decades, featuring over 1,100 homes, wetlands, and parks. The final stage is delivering over 400 new homes and is currently under construction.
Wynn Vale Grove Shopping Centre Redevelopment
Proposed expansion and refurbishment of the Wynn Vale Grove Shopping Centre including upgraded retail tenancies, expansion of the existing medical centre, improved pedestrian access, landscaping and a reconfigured car park. As of mid-2026 the proposal remains in the planning phase with no confirmed construction commencement publicly announced.
Euca Modbury Townhomes
Boutique development of 25 contemporary park-facing townhomes overlooking Australia Reserve. Features architecturally designed two-storey homes with 7-star energy rating, developed by local consortium Centina, Kolabb and Greenstate. Located just 20 minutes from Adelaide CBD and 1km from Tea Tree Plaza.
Luminaire Estate - Residential Development
A 48-lot residential estate between Aristotle Close and Golden Grove Road, featuring the new Plato Place street. Land developed by Lendlease, with homes built by Metricon. Released late 2023, sold out November 2024, construction continuing into 2025. Metricon Homes, founded in 1976, is Australia's leading home builder with SA Builder's Licence BLD231776.
3,181 residents of Modbury North are employed, from a labour force of 3,266. Unemployment sits at 2.6%, with participation at 64.6%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.4% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 4,849, about 79% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Modbury North boasts a capable labor pool where essential service industries are well represented and unemployment stands at 2.6%, alongside an estimated 1.7% employment growth over the previous year according to AreaSearch aggregated data. By March 2026, 3,181 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate 1.2% lower than Greater Adelaide's 3.8% figure, while workforce participation sits slightly below the regional norm at 64.6% versus 66.6% in Greater Adelaide. Census data indicate that only 9.8% of residents worked from home, a statistic that should be interpreted with consideration of past Covid-19 lockdown effects.
Resident employment is primarily found in the fields of healthcare & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. By contrast, professional & technical roles account for only 5.8% of the local workforce, which is below the 7.3% average for Greater Adelaide. The highly residential character of the neighborhood means it provides relatively few local job opportunities, as shown by comparing the census working population to the resident population. Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS statistics aggregated from regional levels, employment grew by 1.7% and the labor force grew by 2.0% over the 12 months leading to March 2026, resulting in a 0.2 percentage point rise in the unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Adelaide experienced a 4.2% expansion in jobs, a 4.0% increase in the labor force, and a 0.2 percentage point reduction in unemployment. National employment forecasts from May-25 released by Jobs and Skills Australia provide further context on future demand trends. These projections, spanning five and ten-year horizons, have been aligned with the local occupation mix to model potential growth. Although the nationwide workforce is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, the pace varies widely by industry. Projecting these industry trends onto the local employment distribution suggests employment numbers should rise by 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this serves as a basic weighted projection for illustration rather than a local demographic forecast.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Modbury North is $1,596 a week (about $83,000 a year), with median personal income at $743 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $48,835 a year against an average of $54,573. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
The most recent postcode level ATO data for the financial year 2023 indicates that local earnings are below the national average, with a median income of $48,835 and an average of $54,573. This is lower than the Greater Adelaide median of $54,808 and average of $66,852. Adjusting for a Wage Price Index increase of 10.17% since the financial year 2023, current estimates correspond to approximately $53,802 for the median and $60,123 for the average as of March 2026. The 2021 Census records show household, family, and personal earnings are modest, placing between the 37th and 41st percentiles.
Income distribution data shows that the earnings bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 contains 37.2% of the population (2,274 individuals), which aligns with the metropolitan average of 31.8% in the same bracket. After accounting for housing costs, 86.4% of earnings are available for other household expenses, and the SEIFA index places the community in the 5th decile for income.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Modbury North had 2,160 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 96% detached houses and 2% apartments. 44% are owned with a mortgage, 18% rented and 37% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $360 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,473 a month. Rent absorbs 22.6% of household income here and mortgage repayments 21.3%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
Residential configurations at the time of the most recent Census consisted of 95.6% separate houses and 4.5% other dwelling types such as townhouses and apartments, compared to 75.2% houses and 24.9% other dwellings across the Adelaide metro area. Home ownership rates were significantly higher than the Adelaide metropolitan average, standing at 37.4%, while the remaining properties were split between mortgaged homes (44.2%) and rentals (18.4%). The median monthly mortgage payment was below the metropolitan average at $1,473, and the median weekly rent was $360, compared to Adelaide metro averages of $1,562 and $320 respectively.
Nationally, mortgage costs are much lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rent prices are lower than the national median of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Modbury North counted 2,160 households at the 2021 Census, an estimated 2,315 today, averaging 2.6 people each. 34% are couples with children, against 29% couples without children. 21% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.6 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Family households make up 76.8% of the local dwelling mix, consisting of 33.5% couples with children, 29.3% couples without children, and 12.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 23.2%, with single person households representing 20.8% and group living situations comprising 2.5%. The median size of households is 2.6 people, which is slightly larger than the Greater Adelaide average of 2.5.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
22.9% of adults in Modbury North hold a university qualification, including 15.4% with a bachelor degree and 5.3% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 25.8% hold a vocational qualification. 1 school serves the area, with 175 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,014 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Educational attainment levels are lower than regional benchmarks, with 22.9% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees, compared to 30.4% across Australia. This difference suggests opportunities for further academic and professional development. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate degrees (5.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational and technical training is highly represented, with 38.5% of residents aged 15+ holding qualifications, including advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (25.8%). Active participation in schooling is high, with 26.7% of the population enrolled in an educational program. This group includes 9.8% in primary school, 6.8% in high school, and 4.6% in higher education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Modbury North reaches 33 stops on 24 routes, timetabled for about 2,100 services a week. The typical home sits about 190 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.5 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transit infrastructure includes 33 active stops within the suburb of Modbury North, featuring a variety of bus services. These stops are connected to 24 separate routes that provide a combined total of 2,091 weekly passenger trips. Transport convenience is high, with the typical resident living 194 meters from their nearest transit stop. Given the residential nature of the neighborhood, most workers travel out of the area for employment, with private cars being the primary mode of transport at 88% and buses at 10%. Household vehicle ownership stands at an average of 1.5 cars per residence.
A relatively low 9.8% of workers performed their duties from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions). Transit service frequency averages 298 trips daily across all local routes, which translates to roughly 63 weekly trips for each individual stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
66.7% of residents in Modbury North report no long-term health condition. 5.6% need daily assistance with core activities, and 48.6% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 5.0 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Health indicators show positive trends for local residents, with analysis of mortality rates and medical diagnoses demonstrating outcomes that align closely with national averages, showing typical rates of common illnesses across all age brackets. The proportion of residents with private health insurance is relatively low, representing approximately 49% of the population (~2,972 people). This compares to 52.7% in Greater Adelaide and a national average of 55.7%. Arthritis and asthma are the most prevalent health issues, affecting 9.0 and 7.9% of the community respectively, while 66.7% of residents reported having no long-term health conditions, compared to 67.9% across Greater Adelaide.
Health indicators for the working-age cohort are standard. Residents aged 65 and over make up 23.1% of the local population (1,412 people), which is higher than the 19.2% average in Greater Adelaide, with national health rankings remaining consistent with the wider population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
30.2% of Modbury North residents were born overseas and 21.7% speak a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (28.7%) and Australian (22.5%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity is higher than in most other local areas, with 30.2% of the population born outside Australia and 21.7% speaking a non-English language at home. Christianity is the primary religion, practiced by 41.9% of the community. The most notable difference from regional trends is in the Other category, which represents 3.7% of the population compared to 1.8% across Greater Adelaide. English ancestry is claimed by 28.7% of residents, followed by Australian ancestry at 22.5%, and Other at 9.3%. There are also specific differences in ethnic representation compared to the wider region, with Polish heritage showing higher concentrations at 1.4% (vs 1.0% regionally), German at 5.4% (vs 5.1%), and Welsh at 0.7% (vs 0.6%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Modbury North is 40. 22.3% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age of 40 years matches the regional profile of Greater Adelaide which is 39, and is slightly higher than the national median of 38 years. The 65 - 74 age bracket is highly represented at 12.5% compared to Greater Adelaide, while the 25 - 34 cohort is less common at 11.1%. Data compiled since the 2021 Census shows that residents aged 75 to 84 have increased from 5.5% to 8.1% of the population, while the 55 to 64 group has decreased from 11.1% to 9.1%. Projections for 2041 point to notable changes in age structure.
The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 31% (153 people), increasing from 495 to 649. Combined, cohorts aged 65 and over will account for 54% of total population growth, showing the aging trend. Conversely, the 0 to 4 and 55 to 64 cohorts are projected to decrease in size.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Modbury North
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | May 2026 3 months ago all 2 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated May 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 29 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (5,704 at the 2021 Census → 6,114 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL40900). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.