Modbury Heights

An assessment of population growth drivers in Modbury Heights reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, Modbury Heights' estimated population is around 7,239 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 244 people (3.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,995 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 7,070 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in Jun 2024 and an additional 12 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,213 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration primarily drove recent population growth, contributing approximately 60.0% of overall population gains during these periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections by age category are adopted, released in 2023 based on 2021 data, with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Future population dynamics anticipate a growth just below the median of statistical areas across the nation, expecting Modbury Heights (SA2) to expand by 360 persons to reach 7,599 by 2041, reflecting an increase of 3.8% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Modbury Heights according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Modbury Heights has seen approximately 16 dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 82 homes were approved, with an additional 13 approved in FY26 so far. Each year, about 1.9 people move to the area per dwelling built over these five years.

This balance between supply and demand supports stable market conditions. The average construction cost of new properties is $305,000.

In FY26, there have been $6.1 million in commercial approvals, reflecting Modbury Heights' primarily residential nature. New building activity consists of 88% detached dwellings and 12% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban character focused on family homes. With around 460 people per dwelling approval, Modbury Heights indicates a developed market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Modbury Heights is projected to add 276 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Modbury Heights has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 32ndth percentile nationally

Three projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area: Tea Tree Gully Sustainable Sewers Program, Tilley Recreation Park Indoor Training Facility, The Oasis Estate, and Gawler Line Electrification & Level Crossing Removals (includes Valley View area works).

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Modbury Heights demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Modbury Heights has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.2% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.6%.

As of September 2025, 3,791 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.7%, lower than Greater Adelaide's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation is standard at 64.3%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction, while accommodation & food employs only 5.0% of local workers compared to Greater Adelaide's 6.8%.

Employment opportunities appear limited locally, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 1.6%, labour force by 1.2%, reducing unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Adelaide experienced employment growth of 3.0% and a 0.1 percentage point drop in unemployment. State-level data from 25-Nov shows SA employment grew by 1.19% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.0%, outperforming the national average of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Modbury Heights' employment mix suggests local employment could grow by 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Modbury Heights' median income among taxpayers was $52,111 in financial year 2023. The suburb's average income stood at $58,403 during the same period. These figures are below Greater Adelaide's median and average incomes of $54,808 and $66,852 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest Modbury Heights' median income will be approximately $56,697 and the average income $63,542, accounting for an 8.8% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Modbury Heights rank modestly, between the 39th and 45th percentiles. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 34.3% of the community (2,482 individuals), similar to the broader metropolitan region at 31.8%. After housing costs, 86.1% of income remains for other expenses. Modbury Heights' SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Modbury Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with strong rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Modbury Heights, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 91.8% houses and 8.2% other dwellings. Home ownership stood at 36.4%, with 45.8% of dwellings mortgaged and 17.8% rented. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,495, while the median weekly rent figure was $340. Nationally, Modbury Heights's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents below the national figure of $375.

Modbury Heights has a typical household mix, with a median household size of 2.6 people

Family households comprise 75.5% of all households, including 35.2% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 11.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 24.5%, with lone person households at 22.9% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 2.6 people.

The educational profile of Modbury Heights exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Modbury Heights' residents aged 15+ with university degrees (21.7%) lag behind the national average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are held by 37.5% of residents, with advanced diplomas at 11.4% and certificates at 26.1%. Current educational participation is high, with 27.8% enrolled in formal education: primary (11.3%), secondary (7.2%), and tertiary (3.6%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Modbury Heights shows that there are currently 44 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 23 individual routes providing service to the community. The combined weekly passenger trips facilitated by these routes amount to 1,841.

The accessibility of public transport in Modbury Heights is rated as excellent, with residents on average located just 181 meters from their nearest transport stop. The service frequency across all routes averages out to 263 trips per day, which translates to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

Modbury Heights's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Modbury Heights' health metrics are close to national benchmarks, with a standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts. Approximately 50% (~3,627 people) have private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (8.8%) and mental health issues (8.3%). About 67.9% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 0% across Greater Adelaide. Around 19.7% (1,426 people) are aged 65 and over.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Modbury Heights was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Modbury Heights had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 28.3% of its population born overseas and 19.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Modbury Heights, making up 40.3% of people there. The 'Other' religious category comprised 3.6%, compared to None% across Greater Adelaide.

The top three ancestry groups were English (30.5%), Australian (23.6%), and Other (9.4%). Notably, Hungarian was overrepresented at 0.5%, German at 5.1%, and Korean at 0.6%.

Modbury Heights's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Modbury Heights is 40 years, similar to Greater Adelaide's average of 39 years, but somewhat older than Australia's average of 38 years. The 5-14 age group constitutes 13.7% of the population, higher than Greater Adelaide's percentage. Conversely, the 25-34 age group makes up 10.4%, lower than Greater Adelaide's figure. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group grew from 4.8% to 6.4% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 14.6% to 15.7%. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 age group declined from 12.7% to 11.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Modbury Heights. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 40%, reaching 647 people from 463. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 61% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 25 to 34 and 0 to 4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.