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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
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Modbury Heights has an estimated 6,957 residents, down from 6,995 at the 2021 Census. That puts 2,128 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to the latest calculations from AreaSearch, which combine Census data, quarterly validation of new addresses, and ABS population statistics, the suburb of Modbury Heights has an estimated population of 6,957 as of May 2026. This represents a minor decline of 38 residents, or 0.5%, from the 2021 Census total of 6,995 people. The current estimate is based on the June 2025 ABS Estimated Resident Population figure of 6,944, supplemented by 17 validated new addresses added after the Census. The suburb of Modbury Heights features a population density of 2,127 people per square kilometer, which exceeds the typical density of locations analyzed nationally.
The primary catalyst for recent population increases was overseas migration, which represented approximately 60.0% of the total demographic growth. Projections for SA2 districts released in 2024 using 2022 as a baseline are sourced from the ABS and Geoscience Australia. In cases where SA2-level data is unavailable, or for projections extending beyond 2032, regional and LGA age-cohort projections from the South Australian State Government published in 2023 using 2021 as a base are applied, weighted and aggregated from the LGA to the SA2 level. Future growth is projected to be slightly below the national median for statistical areas. Across the aggregated SA2 projections, the population is anticipated to rise by 345 residents by 2041, representing a total expansion of 4.8% over the course of 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
86 new dwellings have been approved in Modbury Heights over the past five years, an average of 17 a year. That is 2.5 approvals per 1,000 residents. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 7, well below that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
An analysis of ABS building approvals allocated to the area shows that the suburb of Modbury Heights averages approximately 17 approved residential units annually. A total of 86 homes received approvals over the 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, with an additional 7 approvals recorded during the current FY-26 period. Despite a contracting population in recent times, the rate of construction has remained relatively balanced, which is advantageous for prospective buyers. The average estimated construction cost for these new dwellings is $317,000. Additionally, commercial development appears to be a secondary priority, with commercial approvals totaling $6.1 million for the current financial year.
The composition of new residential approvals is dominated by detached houses at 94.0%, with attached dwellings accounting for the remaining 6.0%, reinforcing the traditional low-density character of the suburb of Modbury Heights and appealing to buyers seeking larger properties. The local housing market exhibits a high degree of maturity, averaging about 435 residents for every dwelling approval. Long-term projections indicate that the suburb of Modbury Heights will add 332 new residents by 2041, measured against the most recent quarterly estimate from AreaSearch. The current rate of construction is expected to generate sufficient housing supply to satisfy this demand, maintaining favorable conditions for home buyers and potentially supporting growth that outpaces official projections.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Modbury Heights
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
|---|
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks one current infrastructure or development project inside Modbury Heights, worth an estimated $7 million. A further 26 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $3.43 billion. 6 are already under construction and 5 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans transport & logistics, residential development and sports & recreation. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local infrastructure projects, major works, and urban planning changes are key drivers of real estate performance. AreaSearch has tracked 3 major initiatives with the potential to influence the area. The key developments identified as highly relevant to the local market include the Tea Tree Gully Sustainable Sewers Program, the Tilley Recreation Park Indoor Training Facility, The Oasis Estate, and the Gawler Line Electrification & Level Crossing Removals project.
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INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Tea Tree Gully Sustainable Sewers Program
SA Water program to transfer approximately 4,700 properties in the City of Tea Tree Gully from a council run Community Wastewater Management System with on site septic tanks to a modern sewer network. Delivery is being rolled out in zones between 2022 and 2028 to improve service reliability and public health outcomes.
Wynn Vale Grove Shopping Centre Redevelopment
Proposed expansion and refurbishment of the Wynn Vale Grove Shopping Centre including upgraded retail tenancies, expansion of the existing medical centre, improved pedestrian access, landscaping and a reconfigured car park. As of mid-2026 the proposal remains in the planning phase with no confirmed construction commencement publicly announced.
Springbank Waters Residential Estate
A large, master-planned residential community completed in stages over two decades, featuring over 1,100 homes, wetlands, and parks. The final stage is delivering over 400 new homes and is currently under construction.
Tilley Recreation Park Indoor Training Facility & Clubrooms
Redevelopment and construction of a modern multi-use flexible clubroom and sporting facility at Tilley Recreation Park for the Tea Tree Gully City Soccer Club. The project includes four unisex changerooms, umpire and medical rooms, clubrooms, an undercover viewing area, enhanced public amenities, viewing mounds, additional green space, and integrated public art elements. Delivered by City of Tea Tree Gully in partnership with Sarah Constructions.
Modbury Hospital Redevelopment Project
The $117 million major upgrade of Modbury Hospital includes a state-of-the-art Health Precinct with a brand-new Cancer Centre featuring 12 chemotherapy chairs, and a new Mental Health Precinct with 44 beds (24 mental health rehabilitation beds and a 20-bed older persons mental health unit). The project also delivers a new five-storey multi-deck car park with over 300 spaces, marking the re-introduction of cancer services to the hospital after a decade. Expected completion is December 2025.
Golden Grove Neighbourhood Code Amendment
A planning policy review and code amendment initiated by the City of Tea Tree Gully to update development standards and zoning overlays for established residential areas across Golden Grove. The proposal reviews allotment sizes, setback requirements, and residential infill policies to protect neighbourhood character while accommodating measured growth.
Euca Modbury Townhomes
Boutique development of 25 contemporary park-facing townhomes overlooking Australia Reserve. Features architecturally designed two-storey homes with 7-star energy rating, developed by local consortium Centina, Kolabb and Greenstate. Located just 20 minutes from Adelaide CBD and 1km from Tea Tree Plaza.
Modbury Sporting Club building project
Completed council-led redevelopment delivering a new two-storey clubroom facility for Modbury Sporting Club at Ridgehaven, jointly funded by the City of Tea Tree Gully and the State Government. The project delivered four unisex change rooms, umpire rooms, function space and amenities to support the Modbury Football and Cricket clubs and their 700-plus players and members.
3,666 residents of Modbury Heights are employed, from a labour force of 3,755. Unemployment sits at 2.4%, with participation at 65.8%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.4% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 5,313, about 76% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The employment landscape in Modbury Heights is characterized by a diverse and capable labor pool, with key service industries well represented. Statistical data aggregated by AreaSearch indicates a remarkably low unemployment rate of 2.4% and steady job conditions throughout the previous twelve months. By March 2026, the number of employed residents stood at 3,666, and the local unemployment rate was 1.5% lower than the 3.8% rate observed in Greater Adelaide. Workforce participation levels in Modbury Heights closely mirror the 66.6% participation rate recorded for the Greater Adelaide region. Census data reveals that only 9.6% of residents were working from home, although this figure may be influenced by the lingering effects of the Covid-19 lockdown period.
The primary employment sectors for local workers are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. By contrast, the accommodation & food services sector has a minimal footprint, employing 5.0% of the workforce compared to the regional average of 6.8%. Comparisons between the Census working population and resident employment figures indicate that local job opportunities are scarce within this primarily residential area. According to SALM and ABS data analyzed over the 12 months ending March 2026, the local workforce saw no change in total employment, which grew by exactly zero percent, while the overall labor force expanded by 0.2%, leading to a 0.2 percentage point increase in unemployment. In contrast, Greater Adelaide experienced a 4.2% rise in employment, a 4.0% expansion in the labor force, and a 0.2 percentage point drop in the unemployment rate. Future demand patterns can be evaluated using national employment projections released by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25. These five- and ten-year forecasts have been aligned with the local industry profile. Although national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, the expansion rates vary widely by industry. Weighting these projections against the employment profile of the suburb of Modbury Heights suggests local jobs could grow by 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, representing a basic extrapolation that excludes local population adjustments.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Modbury Heights is $1,573 a week (about $82,000 a year), with median personal income at $782 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $52,111 a year against an average of $58,403. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
ATO records for the 2023 financial year show that taxpayers in the suburb of Modbury Heights earned a median income of $52,111 and an average income of $58,403. These earnings are below the national average and compare to Greater Adelaide figures of $54,808 and $66,852, respectively. Adjusting these values for the 10.17% increase in the Wage Price Index since the 2023 financial year yields estimated figures of approximately $57,411 for the median and $64,343 for the average as of March 2026. Income data from the 2021 Census ranks household, family, and individual earnings in the suburb of Modbury Heights in a modest range between the 39th and 45th percentiles.
The data indicates that 34.3% of residents, representing 2,386 people, earn between $1,500 and $2,999, mirroring the regional trend of 31.8% in the same bracket. After accounting for housing costs, residents retain 86.1% of their income for other living expenses, placing the area in the 5th decile of the SEIFA index for income.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Modbury Heights had 2,628 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 92% detached houses and 0% apartments. 46% are owned with a mortgage, 18% rented and 36% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $340 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,495 a month. Rent absorbs 21.6% of household income here and mortgage repayments 21.9%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
The housing stock in the suburb of Modbury Heights at the time of the latest Census consisted of 91.8% separate houses and 8.2% semi-detached properties, townhouses, or apartments. This differs from the wider Adelaide metropolitan area, which recorded 75.2% houses and 24.9% other dwelling types. Home ownership was significantly higher in the suburb of Modbury Heights than the Adelaide metropolitan average, with 36.4% of homes owned outright. Mortgaged properties accounted for 45.8% of dwellings, while 17.8% were rented. The median monthly mortgage payment was $1,495, below the metropolitan average of $1,562, while the median weekly rent was $340, compared to the Adelaide metropolitan average of $320.
On a national level, monthly mortgage commitments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are below the national benchmark of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Modbury Heights counted 2,628 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.6 people each. 35% are couples with children, against 28% couples without children. 23% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.6 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families make up the majority of households in the suburb of Modbury Heights at 75.5%. This group is composed of couples with children at 35.2%, couples without children at 27.9%, and single parents with children at 11.8%. Non-family households account for the remaining 24.5%, with single-person households representing 22.9% and group households comprising 1.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 residents, which is slightly higher than the Greater Adelaide average of 2.5.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
21.7% of adults in Modbury Heights hold a university qualification, including 14.4% with a bachelor degree and 5.0% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 26.1% hold a vocational qualification. 1 school serves the area, with 1,805 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,057 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
The proportion of residents with tertiary qualifications in the suburb of Modbury Heights is below the regional average. University degrees are held by 21.7% of residents aged 15 and over, compared to 30.4% nationally. Among these qualifications, bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.4%, with postgraduate degrees at 5.0% and graduate diplomas at 2.3%. Vocational training is highly represented, with 37.5% of the population aged 15 and over holding trade credentials, consisting of advanced diplomas at 11.4% and certificates at 26.1%. School enrollment is high in the suburb of Modbury Heights, with 27.8% of the population engaged in formal studies.
This enrollment includes 11.3% of residents in primary schools, 7.2% in secondary education, and 3.6% enrolled in tertiary institutions.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Modbury Heights reaches 44 stops on 23 routes, timetabled for about 1,800 services a week. The typical home sits about 180 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.5 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transport options in the suburb of Modbury Heights include 44 active bus stops. These stops are served by 23 distinct routes that provide 1,841 weekly passenger journeys. Accessibility is high, with the average distance from a home to the nearest stop measuring 181 meters. As a residential commuter suburb, most workers travel outside the area for employment. Private vehicles are the primary mode of travel for 86% of commuters, while 11% use the bus. Dwellings average 1.5 vehicles. A relatively small proportion of the workforce, measured at 9.6% during the 2021 Census, worked from home, a figure that may reflect pandemic-era conditions.
Bus services run frequently, averaging 263 daily trips across all routes, which translates to approximately 41 weekly trips for each transport stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
67.9% of residents in Modbury Heights report no long-term health condition. 5.0% need daily assistance with core activities, and 50.1% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 5.0 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Health indicators in the suburb of Modbury Heights are generally positive. Analysis of mortality rates and medical conditions indicates that the health status of residents is consistent with national benchmarks, with average rates of typical medical conditions observed across all age ranges. Private health insurance coverage is relatively low, held by approximately 50% of the population, which corresponds to roughly 3,486 people. This compares to a coverage rate of 52.7% across Greater Adelaide and a national average of 55.7%. Arthritis and mental health conditions are the most prevalent health concerns in the suburb of Modbury Heights, affecting 8.8% and 8.3% of residents, respectively.
A total of 67.9% of the population reported having no chronic medical conditions, matching the Greater Adelaide proportion of 67.9%. Health outcomes for residents of working age are standard. The suburb of Modbury Heights has a higher proportion of older residents than Greater Adelaide, with 20.3% of the population aged 65 and over, representing 1,412 individuals, compared to 19.2% in the metropolitan area. National health rankings for the suburb are in line with the broader population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
28.3% of Modbury Heights residents were born overseas and 19.4% speak a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (30.5%) and Australian (23.6%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
The suburb of Modbury Heights displays higher levels of cultural diversity than most local markets. Overseas-born residents make up 28.3% of the population, and 19.4% of households speak a language other than English. Christianity is the predominant religion, followed by 40.3% of the population. The most significant statistical divergence from metropolitan averages is in the Other religious category, which accounts for 3.6% of residents in the suburb of Modbury Heights compared to 1.8% across Greater Adelaide. The ancestry data shows the top three self-reported backgrounds in the suburb of Modbury Heights are English at 30.5%, Australian at 23.6%, and Other at 9.4%.
Specific ethnic representation shows notable deviations from the metropolitan averages, with Hungarian ancestry at 0.5% compared to 0.3% regionally, German at 5.1% compared to 5.1% regionally, and Korean at 0.6% compared to 0.3% regionally.
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Modbury Heights is 40. 22.2% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age of residents in the suburb of Modbury Heights is 40 years, which is comparable to the Greater Adelaide average of 39 and slightly older than the national median of 38 years. Children aged 5 to 14 represent a high proportion of the population at 13.7% compared to Greater Adelaide, while young adults aged 25 to 34 are less common at 10.7%. Since the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 75 to 84 has increased from 4.8% to 6.8%, whereas the cohort aged 55 to 64 has decreased from 12.7% to 11.3%.
Projections for 2041 point to significant demographic shifts in the suburb of Modbury Heights. The 45 to 54 age bracket is expected to grow by 20%, adding 173 people to reach 1,057 from an initial 883. Residents aged 65 and over will account for 58% of the net population growth, highlighting the aging profile of the suburb. Conversely, the cohorts aged 0 to 4 and 25 to 34 are projected to contract.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Modbury Heights
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Aug 2026 this month all 1 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Aug 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 17 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (6,995 at the 2021 Census → 6,957 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL40899). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.