Modbury Heights

An assessment of population growth drivers in Modbury Heights reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of Modbury Heights is around 6,896, a decrease of 99 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 6,995. This decrease is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 6,882, based on ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of 12 new addresses since the Census date. The population density stands at 2,108 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 60% of recent population gains. Population projections for Modbury Heights are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections adjusted to SA2 levels using weighted aggregation method.

By 2041, the suburb is expected to increase by 356 persons, reflecting an 8.9% total growth over 17 years, slightly below national median statistical area projections.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Modbury Heights according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Modbury Heights has experienced an average of 14 dwelling approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 73 homes were approved, with a further 5 approved in FY-26. Each new dwelling brings an average of 2.2 new residents annually over the past five financial years.

The average construction cost value for new dwellings is $307,000, reflecting more affordable housing options. In FY-26, $7.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered.

New development consists predominantly of detached houses (92.0%) and a smaller proportion of attached dwellings (8.0%), maintaining the area's suburban character. With around 751 people per dwelling approval, Modbury Heights indicates a mature market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Modbury Heights is projected to grow by 615 residents by 2041. If current construction levels continue, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Modbury Heights has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified three projects that are expected to impact this particular area. Notable projects include the Tea Tree Gully Sustainable Sewers Program, Tilley Recreation Park Indoor Training Facility, The Oasis Estate, and Gawler Line Electrification & Level Crossing Removals, which also encompasses works in the Valley View area.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Modbury Heights ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Modbury Heights has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.1% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.6%.

As of June 2025, 3842 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.9% lower than Greater Adelaide's rate of 4.0%. Workforce participation was fairly standard at 64.3%, compared to Greater Adelaide's 61.7%. Key industries for employment among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Accommodation & food services had limited presence with 5.0% employment compared to the regional average of 6.8%. Employment opportunities within Modbury Heights appear limited locally, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 1.6%, labour force by 1.3%, leading to a unemployment decrease of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Adelaide saw employment grow by 2.1% while unemployment rose marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Modbury Heights. Over five years, national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6%, with a 13.7% increase over ten years. Applying these projections to Modbury Heights' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2022, Modbury Heights had a median income among taxpayers of $52,133 with the average at $58,432. This is lower than national averages of $52,592 and $64,886 respectively across Greater Adelaide. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.83% since financial year ending June 2022, current estimates are approximately $58,822 (median) and $65,929 (average) as of September 2025. From the Australian Census conducted in August 2021, household, family and personal incomes rank modestly in Modbury Heights, between the 39th and 45th percentiles. The data shows that 34.3% of the population (2,365 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 31.8% in the same category. After housing costs, 86.1% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Modbury Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

As per the latest Census evaluation in Modbury Heights, 91.8% of dwellings were houses and 8.2% were other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, or 'other' dwellings. In contrast, Adelaide metro had no record of houses or other dwellings at that time. Home ownership in Modbury Heights stood at 36.4%, with mortgaged properties at 45.8% and rented dwellings at 17.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,495, aligning with the Adelaide metro average. The median weekly rent was recorded as $340 in Modbury Heights, while Adelaide metro had no recorded figures for rents at that time. Nationally, Modbury Heights' mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Modbury Heights has a typical household mix, with a median household size of 2.6 people

Family households constitute 75.5% of all households, including 35.2% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 11.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 24.5%, with lone person households at 22.9% and group households comprising 1.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people.

The educational profile of Modbury Heights exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Modbury Heights lag behind regional averages. As of 2021, 21.7% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 37.5% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 11.4% and certificates at 26.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the 2021 census. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education. Modbury Heights is home to The Heights School, serving 1,805 students as of 2021. The area has above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1057). All schools offer integrated K-12 education for continuity throughout students' academic journey. As of the 2021 census, there are 26.2 school places per 100 residents, indicating strong educational infrastructure serving both local and surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis conducted in Modbury Heights shows 44 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops are served by a mix of buses, with 22 individual routes providing service. Collectively, these routes facilitate 1,828 weekly passenger trips.

The report rates transport accessibility as excellent, with residents typically located 181 meters from their nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 261 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

Modbury Heights's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Modbury Heights' health metrics closely align with national benchmarks. Common health conditions are seen at standard levels across both young and old age groups.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~3,456 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (8.8%) and mental health issues (8.3%). A majority, 67.9%, report being completely clear of medical ailments, which is higher than the 0% reported across Greater Adelaide. The area has 19.7% residents aged 65 and over (1,358 people), broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Modbury Heights was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Modbury Heights had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 28.3% of its residents born overseas and 19.4% using a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Modbury Heights, accounting for 40.3% of the population. The 'Other' religious category had a higher representation in Modbury Heights at 3.6%, compared to none in Greater Adelaide.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (30.5%), Australian (23.6%), and Other (9.4%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Hungarian was overrepresented at 0.5% (none regionally), German at 5.1% (none regionally), and Korean at 0.6% (none regionally).

Modbury Heights's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Modbury Heights is 40 years, similar to Greater Adelaide's average of 39 years but somewhat older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 5-14 age group comprises 13.7% of the population, higher than Greater Adelaide's percentage, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 10.4%, lower than Greater Adelaide's. Post-2021 Census data shows the 75-84 age group grew from 4.8% to 6.4% of the population, and the 35-44 cohort increased from 14.6% to 15.7%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort declined from 12.7% to 11.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Modbury Heights. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 24%, reaching 1,083 people from 875. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 50% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 35-44 and 65-74 cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.