Modbury Heights

An assessment of population growth drivers in Modbury Heights reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Modbury Heights is around 7,244, reflecting a 3.6% increase since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 6,995. This increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 7,070 based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and an additional 16 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 2,215 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 60.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered and years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections by age category are adopted with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Future demographic trends anticipate a population increase just below the median for statistical areas across the nation, with an expected expansion of 369 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 3.7% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Modbury Heights according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Modbury Heights has seen approximately 16 dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis. From FY21 to FY25, around 82 homes were approved with a further 13 in FY26 so far. The population growth per dwelling built averaged 1.9 people over the past five financial years.

This indicates a balanced supply and demand market, supporting stable conditions. New properties are constructed at an average cost of $305,000.

Commercial approvals this year totaled $6.1 million, reflecting the area's predominantly residential nature. Building activity shows 88% detached dwellings and 12% townhouses or apartments, maintaining Modbury Heights' suburban character focused on family homes. With around 460 people per dwelling approval, it indicates a developed market. Future projections estimate an addition of 270 residents by 2041, with current development rates comfortably meeting demand. This should provide good conditions for buyers and potentially support population growth beyond current projections.

Modbury Heights has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 29thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified three projects that could affect this region: Tea Tree Gully Sustainable Sewers Program, Tilley Recreation Park Indoor Training Facility, The Oasis Estate, and Gawler Line Electrification & Level Crossing Removals (including Valley View area works). Projects of particular relevance are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Modbury Heights demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Modbury Heights has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.3% as of September 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.4%.

This is lower than Greater Adelaide's employment growth of 3.0%. As of September 2025, 3,779 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.7%, compared to Greater Adelaide's 3.9%. Workforce participation was broadly similar to Greater Adelaide's 66.4%.

Census responses indicated that 9.6% of residents worked from home. Dominant employment sectors among residents included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. However, accommodation & food services employed just 5.0% of local workers, below Greater Adelaide's 6.8%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as shown by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 1.4%, while labour force increased by 1.2%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Adelaide experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with a 0.1 percentage point drop in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Modbury Heights' employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Modbury Heights' income level is below the national average according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Its median income among taxpayers is $52,111 and the average income stands at $58,403. Greater Adelaide's figures are $54,808 (median) and $66,852 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.8% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Modbury Heights would be approximately $56,697 (median) and $63,542 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Modbury Heights, between the 39th and 45th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that 34.3% of individuals earn between $1,500 - 2,999 (2,484 individuals), consistent with broader trends across metropolitan Adelaide showing 31.8% in the same category. After housing costs, 86.1% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Modbury Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Modbury Heights' dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.8% houses and 8.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Adelaide metro's 75.2% houses and 24.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Modbury Heights stood at 36.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 45.8% and rented ones at 17.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,495, below Adelaide metro's average of $1,562. Median weekly rent in Modbury Heights was $340, compared to Adelaide metro's $320. Nationally, Modbury Heights' mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Modbury Heights has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 75.5% of all households, including 35.2% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 11.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 24.5%, with lone person households at 22.9% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Greater Adelaide average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Modbury Heights exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Modbury Heights' residents aged 15+ have lower university degree attainment than the Australian average (21.7% vs. 30.4%). Bachelor degrees are most common (14.4%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 37.5% of residents holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (26.1%).

Educational participation is high, with 27.8% currently enrolled in formal education: primary (11.3%), secondary (7.2%), and tertiary (3.6%).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 44 active public transport stops in Modbury Heights, offering a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 23 individual routes, facilitating 1,841 weekly passenger trips collectively. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically situated 181 meters from the nearest stop. Primarily residential, most residents commute outward; car remains dominant at 86%, while bus usage stands at 11%. Average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.5. According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 9.6% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 263 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

Modbury Heights's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Health data for Modbury Heights shows positive outcomes, aligning with national benchmarks for mortality rates and health conditions. Common health conditions are seen across both young and old age groups. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~3,629 people), compared to 52.7% in Greater Adelaide and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (8.8%) and mental health issues (8.3%). A majority, 67.9%, report being clear of medical ailments, similar to the 67.9% across Greater Adelaide. Health outcomes among working-age residents are typical. Modbury Heights has 20.1% of residents aged 65 and over (1,456 people), with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Modbury Heights was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Modbury Heights had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 28.3% of its residents born overseas and 19.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Modbury Heights, making up 40.3% of the population. However, the category 'Other' was notably higher at 3.6%, compared to 1.8% across Greater Adelaide.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (30.5%), Australian (23.6%), and Other (9.4%). Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: Hungarian residents made up 0.5% in Modbury Heights versus 0.3% regionally, German residents were at 5.1% compared to the same regional percentage, and Korean residents comprised 0.6% versus 0.3%.

Modbury Heights's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Modbury Heights is 40 years, similar to Greater Adelaide's average of 39 years but somewhat older than Australia's average of 38 years. The 5-14 age group comprises 13.6% of the population, higher than Greater Adelaide's percentage. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort makes up 10.2%, which is less prevalent compared to Greater Adelaide. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75-84 age group has grown from 4.8% to 6.8% of the population, while the 35-44 cohort increased from 14.6% to 15.7%. Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 12.7% to 11.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Modbury Heights. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 18%, reaching 1,087 people from 919. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 57% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0-4 and 5-14 cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.