Holmesville

An assessment of population growth drivers in Holmesville reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of February 2026, the population of Holmesville is estimated at around 1,505 people. This reflects an increase of 92 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,413 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 1,503 based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 78 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 885 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Holmesville's growth rate of 6.5% since the 2021 census exceeded the Rest of NSW's growth rate of 5.9%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 82.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is projected for Holmesville. Aggregated SA2-level projections indicate that the suburb's population is expected to increase by 254 persons to reach 2041, reflecting a total increase of 13.2% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Holmesville recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Holmesville recorded approximately 11 residential properties granted approval each year based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Around 56 homes were approved in the area over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, with an additional 18 approved so far in FY26. On average, one new resident arrived per new home annually over these five years, indicating balanced supply and demand conditions. However, this ratio decreased to 0.4 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting more balanced supply conditions recently.

New homes were built at an average expected construction cost value of $428,000, higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development. In FY26, commercial development approvals totalled $762,000, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, Holmesville showed 12.0% lower construction activity per person but ranked among the 87th percentile nationally in terms of building activity. New developments consisted of 67.0% standalone homes and 33.0% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments offering options across different price points.

This shift departs significantly from existing housing patterns, which are currently 99.0% houses, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. Holmesville had around 96 people per dwelling approval, characteristic of a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is expected to grow by 199 residents through to 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Holmesville has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

AreaSearch has identified two major projects that could impact the local area. These include expansions to the West Wallsend Swim Centre and changes to the West Wallsend and Holmesville Heritage Conservation Area Amendment, Cameron Grove Estate, and Sugar Valley Library Museum (kirantakamyari).

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Holmesville has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Holmesville has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 4.2% and estimated employment growth of 2.4% in the past year (AreaSearch data). As of September 2025753 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.6%, slightly higher than Rest of NSW's 3.8%.

Workforce participation is similar to Rest of NSW at 61.5%. Home-based work accounts for 13.9% of jobs (Census data). Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction employment is high at 1.5 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing is low at 0.5%.

Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. In the past year (AreaSearch analysis), employment increased by 2.4%, labour force by 3.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.7 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW, where employment contracted by 0.5% and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Holmesville's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years (simple weighting extrapolation).

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released on 30 June 2023 for the financial year ending 30 June 2023, the suburb of Holmesville had a median income among taxpayers of $51,168 and an average of $57,885. This was below the national average. The Rest of NSW had a median income of $52,390 and an average of $65,215 during this period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from financial year ending 30 June 2023 to September 2025, current estimates for Holmesville would be approximately $55,701 (median) and $63,014 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household income in Holmesville ranked at the 58th percentile ($1,884 weekly), while personal income was at the 37th percentile. Income brackets indicated that the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominated with 38.3% of residents (576 people). This trend was consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 29.9% in the same category. After housing costs, residents retained 86.8% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power.

Holmesville is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Holmesville, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 99.4% houses and 0.6% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Holmesville was 37.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.1% and rented ones at 14.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, aligning with Non-Metro NSW's average. The median weekly rent figure was $390 compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Holmesville's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Holmesville features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 83.6% of all households, including 39.0% couples with children, 27.3% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 16.4%, with lone person households at 15.3% and group households comprising 1.2%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Holmesville exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 9.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 6.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (0.9%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 44.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (7.9%) and certificates (36.2%).

Educational participation is high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Holmesville has 20 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 21 different routes that together offer 448 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 119 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuting is outward-bound, with cars being the dominant mode of transport at 97%. On average, there are 2.0 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 13.9% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 64 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 22 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Holmesville is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Holmesville. AreaSearch's assessment found high prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover was relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~750 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues impacted 11.1%, while arthritis affected 10.0% of residents. 61.6% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Rest of NSW. Working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 18.4% of residents aged 65 and over (276 people), lower than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly inline with national rankings.

The latest Census data sees Holmesville placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Holmesville, surveyed in 2016, had low cultural diversity with 94.0% of its population born in Australia, 94.6% being citizens, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 48.9%, compared to 55.9% regionally. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (35.4%), English (29.3%), and Scottish (8.7%).

Notably, Welsh (0.8%) and Australian Aboriginal (6.3%) were overrepresented while Macedonian (0.2%) was underrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.5%, 4.6%, and 0.4% respectively.

Holmesville's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Holmesville's median age is 38, lower than Rest of NSW's figure of 43 but equal to Australia's national norm of 38. The age group of 25-34 years shows strong representation at 15.9%, higher than Rest of NSW's percentage. Conversely, the 75-84 cohort is less prevalent in Holmesville at 5.5%. Following the Census conducted on August 10, 2021, the 75 to 84 age group grew from 3.3% to 5.5%, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 14.3% to 15.9%. However, the 5 to 14 cohort declined from 12.9% to 11.2%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 14.0% to 12.7%. Demographic projections indicate significant changes in Holmesville's age profile by 2041. Notably, the 25 to 34 group is expected to grow by 29%, increasing from 239 people to 309. Conversely, population declines are projected for both the 15 to 24 and 65 to 74 age cohorts.