Holmesville

An assessment of population growth drivers in Holmesville reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the Holmesville statistical area (Lv2) is around 1,504 people. This figure represents an increase of 91 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,413 people, reflecting a growth rate of 6.4%. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 1,503 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 77 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density for Holmesville (SA2) is approximately 884 persons per square kilometer, which aligns with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. This growth rate exceeds the non-metro area's growth of 5.7%, positioning Holmesville as a regional growth leader. Natural growth contributed approximately 82.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is utilizing ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projected demographic shifts indicate an above median population growth for national regional areas. By 2041, Holmesville (SA2) is projected to increase by 265 persons, reflecting a total increase of 13.8% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Holmesville recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Holmesville recorded around 11 residential properties granted approval each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 56 homes were approved, with a further 18 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, over these five years, one new resident arrived per new home built. However, this ratio decreased to 0.4 people per dwelling over the past two financial years.

The average value of new homes being built is $428,000, which is higher than regional norms, indicating quality-focused development. This year alone, $762,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's residential nature. Comparatively, Holmesville shows 12.0% lower construction activity per person relative to Rest of NSW but ranks among the 87th percentile nationally for building activity. Recent years have seen an acceleration in construction activity.

New developments consist of 67.0% standalone homes and 33.0% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments offering options across different price points. This shift marks a significant departure from the current housing pattern, which is predominantly houses (99.0%). With around 96 people per dwelling approval, Holmesville exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Holmesville is expected to grow by 208 residents through to 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Holmesville has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. Two projects identified by AreaSearch are likely to affect this region. Major initiatives include West Wallsend Swim Centre Expansion, West Wallsend and Holmesville Heritage Conservation Area Amendment, Cameron Grove Estate, and Sugar Valley Library Museum (kirantakamyari). The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Holmesville has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Holmesville has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is particularly prominent, with an unemployment rate of 4.2% and estimated employment growth of 2.5% over the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation.

As of September 2025, there are 752 employed residents, with an unemployment rate at 3.8%, 0.4% higher than Rest of NSW's rate. Workforce participation is high at 62.6%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction employment is notably high, at 1.5 times the regional average, while agriculture, forestry & fishing is low at 0.5%.

Over a year, employment increased by 2.5% alongside labour force growth of 3.2%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.7 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's employment contraction of 0.5% and unemployment increase of 0.4 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. National forecasts project total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but industry-specific projections suggest Holmesville's employment may increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, the suburb of Holmesville's median income among taxpayers is $51,168. The average income in Holmesville is $57,885. This is below the national average. In comparison, Rest of NSW has a median income of $52,390 and an average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $55,701 for the median and $63,014 for the average as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, Holmesville's household income ranks at the 58th percentile with a weekly income of $1,884. Personal income in Holmesville sits at the 37th percentile. Income brackets indicate that 38.3% of residents (576 people) fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, which is consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 29.9% in the same category. After housing costs, residents retain 86.8% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power.

Holmesville is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Holmesville, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 99.4% houses and 0.6% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 89.7% houses and 10.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Holmesville was 37.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.1% and rented dwellings at 14.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,900. Median weekly rent in Holmesville was $390, higher than Non-Metro NSW's figure of $380. Nationally, Holmesville's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Holmesville features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 83.6% of all households, including 39.0% couples with children, 27.3% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 16.4%, with lone person households at 15.3% and group households comprising 1.2%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Holmesville exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 9.5%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 6.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (0.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 7.9% and certificates at 36.2%. Educational participation is high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.9% in primary, 7.0% in secondary, and 3.5% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Holmesville shows 20 active transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 21 individual routes that collectively facilitate 448 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 119 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 64 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 22 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Holmesville is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Holmesville, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 50%, covering around 749 people, compared to the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues affect 11.1% of residents, while arthritis impacts 10.0%. A total of 61.6% report no medical ailments, slightly higher than the Rest of NSW's 60.3%. Holmesville has 17.8%, or 267 people aged 65 and over, lower than the Rest of NSW's 21.9%. Senior health outcomes present challenges broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The latest Census data sees Holmesville placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Holmesville, surveyed in 2016, had a population where 94.0% were born in Australia, 94.6% held citizenship, and 96.9% spoke English exclusively at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 48.9%, compared to 54.0% regionally. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (35.4%), English (29.3%), and Scottish (8.7%).

Notably, Welsh (0.8%) and Australian Aboriginal (6.3%) populations were higher than the regional averages of 0.7% and 4.5%, respectively. Macedonian representation was similar to the region at 0.2%.

Holmesville's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Holmesville's median age is 38, which is lower than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 but equivalent to the national norm of 38. The 25-34 age group constitutes 15.6% of Holmesville's population, higher than Rest of NSW, while the 75-84 cohort makes up 5.0%, lower than Rest of NSW. According to the Census conducted on 2021 August 10, the 75-84 age group grew from 3.3% to 5.0% between the 2016 and 2021 censuses. The 25-34 cohort increased from 14.3% to 15.6% in this period, while the 5-14 cohort decreased from 12.9% to 11.2%, and the 45-54 group dropped from 14.0% to 12.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Holmesville's age profile. The 25-34 group is expected to grow by 30%, from 234 to 305 people, leading the demographic shift. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 15-24 and 65-74 cohorts.