Holmesville

An assessment of population growth drivers in Holmesville reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of Holmesville is estimated at around 1,544 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census population of 1,413 people, marking a growth of 9.3%. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 1,543 residents following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2025 and an additional 79 validated new addresses since the Census date. Holmesville's population density stands at 908 persons per square kilometer, aligning with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate exceeded Rest of NSW (4.9%) and its SA4 region, making it a growth leader in the area. Natural growth contributed approximately 82.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth for locations outside capital cities, with Holmesville expected to grow by 296 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 19.1% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Holmesville recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Holmesville recorded approximately 11 residential approvals annually over the past five financial years ending FY25. This totals an estimated 56 homes. In FY26, up to July, 12 approvals have been recorded. On average, around 1.3 people moved into the area per dwelling built each year between FY21 and FY25.

The average construction value for new properties was $428,000. This financial year, Holmesville has seen $762,000 in commercial development approvals. Compared to Rest of NSW, Holmesville had 13.0% less building activity per person as of FY25, but it ranked among the 87th percentile nationally for development activity. Recent construction consisted of 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% townhouses or apartments.

By 2041, Holmesville is projected to add approximately 295 residents, based on AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. Current development levels appear aligned with future requirements, suggesting stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Holmesville has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Two projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include West Wallsend Swim Centre Expansion, West Wallsend and Holmesville Heritage Conservation Area Amendment, Cameron Grove Estate, and Sugar Valley Library Museum (kirantakamyari). The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Holmesville recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Holmesville has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 4.9% and estimated employment growth of 0.9% in the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation. As of December 2025783 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.9% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation is at 64.3%, slightly above Regional NSW's 60.5%. In Census responses, 13.9% of residents work from home. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Holmesville has a high employment specialization in construction (1.5 times the regional level) but a low share in agriculture, forestry & fishing (0.5%).

The area offers limited local employment opportunities, indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. In the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.9% and labour force by 2.4%, raising unemployment by 1.4 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional NSW where employment contracted by 1.2%, labour force fell by 0.8%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary between sectors. Applying these projections to Holmesville's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Holmesville had a median income among taxpayers of $51,168. The average income stood at $57,885. This is below the national average. Across Regional NSW, incomes were $52,390 (median) and $65,215 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $56,449 (median) and $63,859 (average) as of March 2026. Census 2021 income data shows household income ranks at the 58th percentile ($1,884 weekly), while personal income sits at the 37th percentile. The data shows 38.3% of Holmesville's population (591 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range. This is consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 29.9% in the same category. After housing costs, residents retain 86.8% of their income.

Holmesville is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Holmesville's housing structure, as recorded in the latest Census, consisted of 99.4% houses and 0.6% other dwellings. This is compared to Regional NSW which had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Holmesville was at 37.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.1% and rented ones at 14.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, aligning with Regional NSW's average. The median weekly rent was $390, higher than Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Holmesville's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Holmesville features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 83.6% of all households, including 39.0% couples with children, 27.3% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 16.4%, with lone person households at 15.3% and group households comprising 1.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Holmesville exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 9.5%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 6.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (0.9%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 44.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (7.9%) and certificates (36.2%). Educational participation is high at 26.8%, with 8.9% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Holmesville has 20 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These are served by 21 different routes that together facilitate 448 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from a resident's home to the nearest transport stop is 119 meters, indicating excellent accessibility. As Holmesville is predominantly residential, most commuting is outward-bound, with cars being the primary mode of transport for 97% of residents. On average, there are 2.0 vehicles per dwelling in Holmesville, which exceeds the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 13.9% of Holmesville's residents work from home, a figure that may have been influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency across all routes averages 64 trips per day, equating to roughly 22 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Holmesville is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Holmesville. AreaSearch's assessment found notable prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age cohorts.

Approximately 50% (~769 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues and arthritis were the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 11.1 and 10.0% of residents respectively. 61.6% reported no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces substantial health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. Holmesville has 281 people aged 65 and over (18.2%), lower than Regional NSW's 23.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally in line with national rankings.

The latest Census data sees Holmesville placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Holmesville, as per the data, had a cultural diversity below average. Its population was predominantly Australian-born at 94.0%, with 94.6% being citizens and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the primary religion in Holmesville, accounting for 48.9% of its population, compared to the Regional NSW average of 55.9%.

The leading ancestry groups were Australian (35.4%), English (29.3%), and Scottish (8.7%). Notably, Welsh (0.8%) was overrepresented in Holmesville compared to regional averages (0.5%), as were Australian Aboriginal (6.3% vs 4.6%) and Macedonian (0.2% vs 0.4%).

Holmesville's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Holmesville's median age is 38 years, which is lower than Regional NSW's figure of 43 but matches the national norm of 38 years. The age group of 25-34 years has a strong representation in Holmesville at 16.0%, compared to Regional NSW, while the 85+ cohort is less prevalent at 0.6%. According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 75 to 84 years grew from 3.3% to 5.9%, and the 25 to 34 age group increased from 14.3% to 16.0%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group declined from 12.9% to 11.5%, and the 45 to 54 age group decreased from 14.0% to 12.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Holmesville's age profile will significantly change. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 34%, increasing from 247 people to 330. Meanwhile, the numbers in the 65 to 74 age range are expected to decrease by 3%.