Holmesville

An assessment of population growth drivers in Holmesville reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Holmesville's population is estimated at around 1,586. This reflects an increase of 173 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,413. The change was inferred from the resident population of 1,582 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 77 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 932 persons per square kilometer. Holmesville's growth rate of 12.2% since the 2021 census exceeded both the non-metro area (5.1%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 82.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year for areas not covered by this data. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above median population growth of regional areas across the nation is projected. The suburb is expected to increase by 265 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 7.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Holmesville recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Holmesville recorded approximately 18 residential properties granted approval annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Around 91 homes were approved over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, and 15 so far in FY-26. On average, 0.6 new residents arrived per year for each new home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand.

The average construction value of these properties was $428,000, aligning with broader regional development trends. In FY-26, $12.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating steady commercial investment activity in the area. Compared to the rest of NSW, Holmesville exhibited moderately higher building activity over the past five years, with a 42.0% increase per person relative to the regional average. This has maintained good buyer choice while supporting existing property values, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. Recent construction comprised 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating an increasing blend of attached housing types offering choices across various price ranges.

The current dwelling approval to population ratio is approximately 41 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market. Future projections estimate Holmesville will add 126 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Holmesville has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. Three projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to influence the region: West Wallsend Swim Centre Expansion, West Wallsend and Holmesville Heritage Conservation Area Amendment, Cameron Grove Estate, and Sugar Valley Library Museum (kirantakamyari). The following details those most relevant.

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Holmesville has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Holmesville has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 4.0% and estimated employment growth of 1.6% in the past year.

As of June 2025, there are 749 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 3.7%, which is 0.3% higher than Rest of NSW's rate. Workforce participation is high at 62.6%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction employment is particularly notable, at 1.5 times the regional average.

However, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.5% of Holmesville's workforce compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Employment opportunities may be limited locally as indicated by Census data. In the year ending June 2025, employment increased by 1.6%, labour force grew by 2.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Holmesville's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Holmesville's median taxpayer income is $51,168 and average income is $57,885 based on latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is lower than national averages, with Rest of NSW having a median income of $49,459 and average income of $62,998. As of September 2025, estimated incomes are approximately $57,620 (median) and $65,184 (average), accounting for Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, Holmesville's household income ranks at the 58th percentile ($1,884 weekly) and personal income at the 37th percentile. Income distribution shows that 38.3% of residents (607 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, similar to metropolitan regions where 29.9% occupy this bracket. After housing costs, residents retain 86.8% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power.

Holmesville is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Holmesville's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 99.4% houses and 0.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 89.7% houses and 10.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Holmesville was 37.5%, similar to Non-Metro NSW's figure, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (48.1%) or rented (14.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Holmesville was $1,733, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,900 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure in Holmesville was $390, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $380 and the national figure of $375.

Holmesville features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 83.6% of all households, including 39.0% couples with children, 27.3% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 16.4%, with lone person households at 15.3% and group households comprising 1.2%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Holmesville exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area has university qualification rates of 9.5%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 6.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (0.9%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 44.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (7.9%) and certificates (36.2%).

Educational participation is high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (8.9%), secondary education (7.0%), and tertiary education (3.5%). Educational facilities seem to be located outside the immediate catchment boundaries, requiring families to access schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Holmesville shows 19 active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 21 different routes that together facilitate 539 weekly passenger trips. The town's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 119 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 77 daily trips across all routes, equating to around 28 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Holmesville is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Holmesville, with high prevalence of common conditions across both younger and older age groups. Approximately 50% (~790 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

Mental health issues affect 11.1% of residents, while arthritis impacts 10.0%. 61.6% report no medical ailments, compared to 60.3% in Rest of NSW. Holmesville has 17.8% (282 people) aged 65 and over, lower than the 21.9% in Rest of NSW. Senior health outcomes present challenges broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

The latest Census data sees Holmesville placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Holmesville, surveyed in June 2016, had low cultural diversity with 94.0% of residents born in Australia, 94.6% being citizens, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 48.9% of Holmesville's population compared to 54.0% regionally. Top ancestral groups were Australian (35.4%), English (29.3%), and Scottish (8.7%).

Notably, Welsh (0.8%) and Australian Aboriginal (6.3%) populations were higher than regional averages, while Macedonian remained at the same level (0.2%).

Holmesville's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Holmesville's median age is 38, which is lower than Rest of NSW's figure of 43 but matches Australia's national norm of 38. The age group of 25-34 years old makes up a strong 15.5% of Holmesville's population compared to Rest of NSW, while the 75-84 cohort is less prevalent at 5%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has increased from 3.3% to 5%, and the 25-34 cohort has risen from 14.3% to 15.5%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 12.9% to 11.2%, and the 45-54 group has dropped from 14.0% to 12.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Holmesville's age profile will change significantly. The 25-34 group is projected to grow by 24% (59 people), reaching 305 from 245. Meanwhile, population declines are forecast for the 15-24 and 55-64 cohorts.