Holmesville

An assessment of population growth drivers in Holmesville reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, as of Feb 2026, Holmesville's estimated population is around 1,505. This reflects an increase of 92 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,413. The change is inferred from the resident population of 1,503 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 78 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 885 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Holmesville's growth rate of 6.5% since the 2021 census exceeded the Rest of NSW's 5.9%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 82.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Examining future population trends, an above median population growth of national non-metropolitan areas is projected, with Holmesville expected to expand by 282 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 18.6% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Holmesville recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Holmesville has received around 11 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling approximately 56 homes. As of FY-26, 8 approvals have been recorded. Based on an average of 1.1 new residents per year per dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, supply and demand appear balanced, with a recent easing to 0.5 people per dwelling over the past two financial years. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $428,000, slightly above the regional average. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $762,000, indicating minimal commercial activity compared to residential development.

Holmesville records 14.0% less building activity per person than the Rest of NSW but ranks among the 87th percentile nationally for construction activity intensity. Recent construction comprises 67.0% standalone homes and 33.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a shift from the area's existing housing stock which is currently 99.0% houses. Holmesville has around 96 people per dwelling approval, indicating low density characteristics. Population forecasts suggest Holmesville will gain approximately 280 residents by 2041.

At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Holmesville has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure can significantly affect an area's performance. Two projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the region. Notable projects include West Wallsend Swim Centre Expansion, West Wallsend and Holmesville Heritage Conservation Area Amendment, Cameron Grove Estate, and Sugar Valley Library Museum (kirantakamyari). The following details those likely to be most relevant.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Holmesville recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Holmesville has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 4.9% and stable employment over the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation. As of December 2025744 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.9%, 0.9% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation is similar to Regional NSW at 61.3%. Moderately, 13.9% of residents work from home, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Holmesville specializes in construction with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level, but agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.5% compared to Regional NSW's 5.3%.

Limited local employment opportunities are suggested by resident vs working population counts. Between December 2024 and 2025, Holmesville's labour force increased by 1.2%, while employment decreased by 0.4%, raising the unemployment rate by 1.5 percentage points. Conversely, Regional NSW saw employment decline of 1.2% and labour force decline of 0.8%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, varying by industry sector. Applying these projections to Holmesville's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, noting this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data, released for financial year 2023, indicates that Holmesville's median income among taxpayers is $51,168, with an average of $57,885. This is lower than the national average. In comparison, Regional NSW has a median income of $52,390 and an average of $65,215. Using Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for Holmesville as of September 2025 would be approximately $55,701 (median) and $63,014 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Holmesville's household income ranks at the 58th percentile ($1,884 weekly), while personal income is at the 37th percentile. The data shows that 38.3% of Holmesville residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 (576 individuals), which is consistent with broader trends in the area showing 29.9% in the same category. After housing costs, residents retain 86.8% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power.

Holmesville is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Holmesville's dwellings, as per the latest Census data, were 99.4% houses and 0.6% other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This contrasts with Regional NSW's dwelling composition of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Holmesville stood at 37.5%, with the rest being mortgaged (48.1%) or rented (14.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, aligning with Regional NSW's average, while the median weekly rent was $390, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Holmesville's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Holmesville features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 83.6% of all households, including 39.0% couples with children, 27.3% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 16.4%, with lone person households at 15.3% and group households comprising 1.2%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Holmesville exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 9.5%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 6.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (0.9%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 44.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas account for 7.9% and certificates for 36.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 20 active transport stops operating within Holmesville, consisting of a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 21 individual routes, collectively facilitating 448 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically situated 119 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential area, most residents commute outward, with car remaining the dominant mode of transportation at 97%. Vehicle ownership averages 2.0 per dwelling, exceeding the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, some 13.9% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 64 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 22 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Holmesville is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Holmesville. AreaSearch's assessment found high prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age groups.

The rate of private health cover was relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~750 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues and arthritis were the most common medical conditions, affecting 11.1 and 10.0% of residents respectively. 61.6% of residents reported being completely clear of medical ailments, slightly lower than the 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. Holmesville has 18.2% of residents aged 65 and over (273 people), which is lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The latest Census data sees Holmesville placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Holmesville's population was found to be predominantly Australian-born, with 94.0% of residents having been born in Australia. Citizenship was also high, at 94.6%, and English was spoken exclusively at home by 96.9%. Christianity was the most prevalent religion in Holmesville, comprising 48.9% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry, Australian heritage was dominant, with 35.4% of Holmesville's population claiming this background, higher than the regional average of 30.0%. English and Scottish heritages followed, at 29.3% and 8.7%, respectively. Notably, Welsh heritage was more prevalent in Holmesville at 0.8%, compared to 0.5% regionally. Australian Aboriginal heritage was also higher than the regional average, at 6.3% versus 4.6%. Macedonian heritage, however, was less common in Holmesville at 0.2%, compared to 0.4% regionally.

Holmesville's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Holmesville's median age is 38, which is lower than Regional NSW's figure of 43 but matches the national norm of 38. The 25-34 age group makes up 15.9% of Holmesville's population, higher than Regional NSW's percentage, while the 75-84 cohort comprises 5.6%, lower than Regional NSW's figure. As per the 2021 Census, Holmesville's 75 to 84 age group has increased from 3.3% to 5.6%, and the 25 to 34 cohort has risen from 14.3% to 15.9%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group has decreased from 12.9% to 11.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Holmesville's age profile. The 25 to 34 age group is expected to grow by 32%, adding 77 people and reaching a total of 317 from the current 239. Meanwhile, the 65 to 74 age range is anticipated to decrease by 5%.