Cranley

Cranley lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Cranley's population is estimated at around 2,560 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 279 people (12.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,281 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,322 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 158 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 245 persons per square kilometer. Cranley's 12.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the non-metro area (8.8%), along with the national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 46.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Moving forward with demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of Australian non-metropolitan areas is expected, with the suburb expected to expand by 257 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 5.1% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Cranley recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Cranley averaged approximately 25 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 128 homes. As of FY-26, two approvals have been recorded. Between FY-21 and FY-25, on average, 1.6 people moved to the area per dwelling built, suggesting balanced supply and demand dynamics. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $506,000, aligning with regional trends.

In FY-26, there have been $49.9 million in commercial approvals, indicating robust local business investment. Compared to the Rest of Qld, Cranley has 100.0% higher new home approvals per person, offering greater choice for buyers despite a recent slowdown in building activity. This level is notably higher than the national average, reflecting strong developer confidence in the location. New development comprises 82.0% detached houses and 18.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's low density character while attracting space-seeking buyers. There are approximately 269 people per dwelling approval in Cranley, suggesting room for growth.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the location is projected to add 130 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Cranley has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects likely to impact the region. Notable initiatives include New Toowoomba Hospital, Kearney West Estate, Toowoomba Fairways Country Club Retirement Village, and Palm Lake Resort Toowoomba.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Cranley has been broadly consistent with national averages

Cranley has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate is 3.6%.

Over the past year, estimated employment growth was 15.2%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of June 2025919 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.2% compared to Rest of Qld's 3.9%. Workforce participation is lower at 37.2%, against Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Major employment sectors include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and retail trade.

Health care & social assistance employs 1.4 times the regional level but agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 1.6% of local workers, below Rest of Qld's 4.5%. There are 1.8 workers per resident, indicating Cranley functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 15.2%, labour force grew by 13.0%, reducing the unemployment rate by 1.8 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Qld saw employment rise by 1.8%, labour force grow by 2.0%, with unemployment rising by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranley's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Cranley had a median taxpayer income of $44,152 and an average income of $54,251. These figures are below the national averages of $50,780 (median) and $64,844 (average) for Rest of Qld. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since financial year 2022, estimated median income in Cranley as of September 2025 is approximately $50,329, and average income is about $61,841. Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Cranley fall between the 8th and 16th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 34.3% of individuals earn between $800 and $1,499, differing from regional patterns where earnings between $1,500 and $2,999 dominate at 31.7%. Housing costs are modest with 87.0% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at the 11th percentile nationally.

Cranley displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Cranley, as per the latest Census, consisted of 67.8% houses and 32.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Qld had 81.4% houses and 18.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranley was at 57.1%, with the rest either mortgaged (15.7%) or rented (27.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Cranley was $1,517, aligning with Non-Metro Qld's average. The median weekly rent figure was recorded as $330, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $310. Nationally, Cranley's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,517 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Cranley features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.6% of all households, including 13.7% couples with children, 39.6% couples without children, and 8.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 36.4%, with lone person households at 32.8% and group households comprising 3.7%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Cranley exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.6%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them. Advanced diplomas account for 11.1% and certificates for 24.5%.

A total of 21.6% of the population is actively engaged in formal education. This includes 7.2% in primary, 5.0% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education. Educational facilities seem to be located outside the immediate catchment area, requiring residents to access schools in neighboring regions.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranley has two active public transport stops operating. These stops service a mix of bus routes, collectively providing 112 weekly passenger trips. There is one individual route serving these stops.

Residents in Cranley have limited transport accessibility, with an average distance of 671 meters to the nearest stop. The service frequency averages 16 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 56 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Cranley is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Cranley faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low at approximately 49%, covering around 1,246 people, compared to Rest of Qld's 51.0% and the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 14.0%) and mental health issues (11.3%).

Conversely, 50.8% report no medical ailments, lower than Rest of Qld's 65.3%. Cranley has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 44.6%, with around 1,141 people, compared to Rest of Qld's 18.8%. Health outcomes among seniors largely align with the general population's health profile.

Cranley ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranley, surveyed in June 2016, had a population with 88.6% citizens, 83.7% born in Australia, and 92.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 68.0%, compared to 58.8% regionally. The top three ancestry groups were English (31.7%), Australian (27.1%), and Irish (8.9%).

Notably, German ancestry was overrepresented at 7.4% (vs regional 8.0%), Filipino at 1.9% (vs 0.8%), and Hungarian at 0.3% (vs 0.1%).

Cranley ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Cranley's median age is 60, which is significantly higher than the Rest of Qld figure of 41 and Australia's figure of 38 years. The 75-84 age group shows strong representation at 21.2% compared to Rest of Qld, while the 45-54 cohort is less prevalent at 5.2%. This 75-84 concentration is well above the national figure of 6.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 10.8% to 12.7% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 7.6% to 5.5%, and the 65 to 74 group dropped from 16.7% to 15.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Cranley's age profile will evolve significantly. Leading this shift, the 85+ group is projected to grow by 81%, reaching 380 from 209. This growth is part of an overall trend where residents aged 65 and older represent 75% of anticipated population growth. Conversely, both the 35 to 44 and 45 to 54 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.