South Toowoomba

An assessment of population growth drivers in South Toowoomba reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of South Toowoomba's population is estimated at around 5,655 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 143 people (2.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,512 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 5,641, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 16 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,528 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 81.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Looking at population projections moving forward, lower quartile growth of national non-metropolitan areas is anticipated, with the suburb expected to expand by 277 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 5.6% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in South Toowoomba according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, South Toowoomba has experienced around 7 dwellings receiving development approval each year. An estimated 38 homes were approved over the past 5 financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, with a further 30 approved so far in FY-26.

On average, 2.7 people have moved to the area per new home constructed over these past 5 financial years, suggesting solid demand that supports property values. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $380,000. Relative to Rest of Qld, South Toowoomba shows substantially reduced construction activity, with 76.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings, though building activity has accelerated in recent years compared to previous levels. Nationally, this level is likewise lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity shows 33.0% detached houses and 67.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a shift towards higher-density living that creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition of currently 70.0% houses, potentially reflecting decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles.

The location has approximately 598 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market. Future projections show South Toowoomba adding 318 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

South Toowoomba has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 19 projects likely affecting the region. Notable projects include Grants for Growth Infrastructure Plan, Retirement Village (86 Units) - Single Storey, Mater Dei Primary School Early Years Precinct, and Ruthven Street Social and Affordable Housing Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in South Toowoomba has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

South Toowoomba has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 5.5% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.2%. As of September 2025, 2,974 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 1.5% higher than Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%.

Workforce participation was 68.0%, slightly above Rest of Qld's 65.7%. According to Census responses, 6.9% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. The area has a strong specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level, while mining employs only 0.8% of local workers compared to Rest of Qld's 3.6%.

There were 0.7 workers per resident at the Census, indicating above-average employment opportunities. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 5.2%, and labour force grew by 3.6%, causing a 1.4 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. In contrast, Rest of Qld saw employment grow by 1.7%, labour force expand by 2.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia indicate that South Toowoomba's employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows South Toowoomba's median income among taxpayers is $53,135. The average income in the suburb is $65,289. This is slightly below the national average. In comparison, Rest of Qld has a median income of $53,146 and an average of $66,593. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $58,401 (median) and $71,759 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, personal income ranks at the 41st percentile ($763 weekly), while household income is at the 24th percentile. The earnings profile indicates that 31.3% of individuals in South Toowoomba earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually (1,770 individuals). This aligns with broader metropolitan trends where 31.7% fall into the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 23rd percentile.

South Toowoomba displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In South Toowoomba, as per the latest Census, 69.6% of dwellings were houses while 30.4% were other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, or 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Non-Metro Qld's 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in South Toowoomba stood at 22.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.2% and rented ones at 49.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,405, lower than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,655. The median weekly rent in South Toowoomba was $290, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $345. Nationally, South Toowoomba's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,405 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

South Toowoomba features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 56.5% of all households, including 18.9% couples with children, 23.0% couples without children, and 13.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 43.5%, with lone person households at 37.6% and group households comprising 5.6%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in South Toowoomba aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 26.8% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Rest of Qld average of 20.6%. This rate also exceeds that of the SA3 area (23.1%). Bachelor degrees are the most common at 18.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 5.5% and graduate diplomas at 2.9%.

Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.2% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 9.5% and certificates at 25.7%. Educational participation is high, with 29.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.8% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

South Toowoomba has 36 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by six different routes that together facilitate 706 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent access to public transportation, with an average distance of 188 meters to the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most residents commute outwards using cars as the primary mode of transport at 90%, while 6% walk. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling, lower than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, only 6.9% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

All routes combined operate an average of 100 trips daily, equating to about 19 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in South Toowoomba is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

South Toowoomba faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Several health conditions affect both younger and older age groups, with private health cover at approximately 53% of the total population (~3,001 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 12.0% and 9.0% of residents respectively. Conversely, 64.3% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 67.6% across Rest of Qld. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. As of 2021, 13.4% of South Toowoomba's residents are aged 65 and over (757 people), lower than the 20.4% in Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, South Toowoomba records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

South Toowoomba's cultural diversity was found to be roughly in line with the wider region's average, with 83.7% of its population being citizens, 81.4% born in Australia, and 86.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in South Toowoomba, comprising 51.3% of people. The most apparent overrepresentation was in Other religions, which comprised 4.8% of the population compared to 0.8% across Rest of Qld.

In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups were English (26.9%), Australian (24.9%), and Irish (9.8%). Notably, German ancestry was overrepresented at 7.6% in South Toowoomba versus 4.7% regionally, while Australian Aboriginal was slightly underrepresented at 3.6% compared to 3.9%, and Maori was also underrepresented at 0.5% compared to 0.8%.

South Toowoomba's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in South Toowoomba is 35 years, which is lower than the Rest of Qld average of 41 years and also under the national average of 38 years. The 25-34 age cohort is notably over-represented locally at 21.2%, compared to the Rest of Qld average, while the 65-74 year-olds are under-represented at 7.2%. This concentration of the 25-34 age group is well above the national average of 14.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows South Toowoomba has become younger, with median age dropping from 36 to 35 years between 2016 and 2021. During this period, the 25 to 34 age group grew from 17.6% to 21.2%, while the 0 to 4 cohort increased from 5.8% to 7.1%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 12.5% to 10.5%, and the 65 to 74 group dropped from 8.7% to 7.2%. By 2041, South Toowoomba is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 25 to 34 age group is projected to grow by 20%, reaching 1,436 people from 1,198. In contrast, the 5 to 14 and 65 to 74 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.