South Toowoomba

An assessment of population growth drivers in South Toowoomba reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since May 2026, South Toowoomba's estimated population is around 5,666. This reflects an increase of 154 people (2.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,512 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 5,665, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 16 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,531 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for South Toowoomba was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 81.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data for each age cohort. Examining future population trends, lower quartile growth of national regional areas is anticipated, with South Toowoomba expected to expand by 115 persons to reach a total population of around 5,781 by 2041, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.0% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in South Toowoomba, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

South Toowoomba saw approximately 5 new homes approved annually between Financial Year 2021 (FY-21) and FY-26, totalling around 29 in the past five years and 28 so far this year. This resulted in an average of 2.1 new residents per dwelling built over these years.

The average construction cost value for new homes was $380,000. Compared to the rest of Queensland, South Toowoomba had significantly lower building activity, being 81.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new properties often boosts demand and prices for existing ones. New development comprised 40.0% detached houses and 60.0% medium and high-density housing, shifting from the current mix of 70.0% houses. South Toowoomba reflected a highly mature market with around 939 people per dwelling approval. By 2041, it is projected to grow by approximately 114 residents. Current construction levels are expected to meet demand adequately, benefiting buyers and potentially exceeding current growth forecasts.

Looking ahead, South Toowoomba is expected to grow by 114 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

South Toowoomba has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 19 projects that may affect this region. Notable ones include Grants for Growth Infrastructure Plan, Retirement Village (86 Units) - Single Storey, Mater Dei Primary School Early Years Precinct, and Ruthven Street Social and Affordable Housing Development. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in South Toowoomba lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

South Toowoomba has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 6.4% as of an AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, there were 2,816 residents in work while the unemployment rate was 2.4% above Regional Qld's rate of 4.0%.

Workforce participation was on par with Regional Qld at 64.5%. According to Census responses, only 6.9% of residents worked from home, but Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The leading employment industries among residents were health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. South Toowoomba showed strong specialization in health care & social assistance with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level.

In contrast, mining employed only 0.8% of local workers compared to Regional Qld's 3.6%. The ratio of 0.7 workers per resident indicated a higher than normal level of local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and December 2025, the labour force decreased by 4.9%, while employment declined by 5.9%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.9 percentage points in South Toowoomba. Regional Qld recorded employment growth of 0.7% and labour force growth of 1.0%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to South Toowoomba's employment mix indicates potential local employment growth of 7.0% over five years and 14.5% over ten years, although this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows South Toowoomba's median income among taxpayers is $53,135 and the average is $65,289. This is slightly lower than national averages. Regional Queensland has a median of $53,146 and an average of $66,593. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.36% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $59,171 (median) and $72,706 (average). Census 2021 income data ranks personal income at the 41st percentile ($763 weekly), with household income at the 24th percentile. The earnings profile shows that 31.3% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 (1,773 individuals). This is similar to surrounding regions where 31.7% fall into this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 23rd percentile.

South Toowoomba displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in South Toowoomba, as per the latest Census, consisted of 69.6% houses and 30.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Regional Qld's 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in South Toowoomba was at 22.1%, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (28.2%) or rented (49.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,405, below Regional Qld's average of $1,655. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $290, compared to Regional Qld's $345. Nationally, South Toowoomba's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

South Toowoomba features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 56.5% of all households, including 18.9% that are couples with children, 23.0% that are couples without children, and 13.1% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 43.5%, with lone person households at 37.6% and group households comprising 5.6%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Regional Queensland average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in South Toowoomba aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 26.8%, higher than the Rest of Qld average of 20.6% and the SA3 area average of 23.1%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 18.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are held by 35.2% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 9.5% and certificates at 25.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.3% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.8% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

South Toowoomba has 36 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops are served by a mix of buses along six individual routes, providing a total of 706 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 188 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most commuters travel outward. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 90%, with 6% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 6.9% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 100 trips per day, equating to approximately 19 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in South Toowoomba is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

South Toowoomba faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Notably, common health conditions are prevalent across both younger and older age groups. The area has a higher rate of private health cover at approximately 53% of its total population (~3,006 people), compared to the average SA2 area. The most prevalent medical conditions in South Toowoomba are mental health issues and arthritis, affecting 12.0 and 9.0% of residents respectively. Conversely, 64.3% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 67.6% across Regional Queensland. Working-age residents face substantial health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a lower proportion of residents aged 65 and over (13.8%, or 781 people) than the state average (20.4%). However, health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with those of the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, South Toowoomba records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

South Toowoomba's cultural diversity was largely comparable to the broader regional average. Its population composition was as follows: 83.7% citizens, 81.4% born in Australia, and 86.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 51.3% of South Toowoomba's population.

The most significant deviation from regional averages was observed in the 'Other' category, which constituted 4.8% of South Toowoomba's population compared to 0.8% across Regional Qld. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (26.9%), Australian (24.9%), and Irish (9.8%). Notable differences in ethnic group representation included German (7.6% vs regional 4.7%), Australian Aboriginal (3.6% vs 3.9%), and Maori (0.5% vs 0.8%).

South Toowoomba's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in South Toowoomba is 35 years, which is lower than Regional Queensland's average of 41 years and under the national average of 38 years. Compared to Regional Queensland, the 25-34 age group is over-represented at 19.9% locally, while the 65-74 age group is under-represented at 7.5%. The concentration of the 25-34 age group in South Toowoomba is well above the national average of 14.6%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 25-34 age group has grown from 17.6% to 19.9%, and the 0-4 age group has increased from 5.8% to 7.5%. Conversely, the 15-24 age group has declined from 14.1% to 12.6%, and the 45-54 age group has dropped from 12.5% to 11.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in South Toowoomba, with the 25-34 age group expected to grow by 15% (165 people), reaching 1,293 from 1,127. Meanwhile, both the 5-14 and 65-74 age groups are projected to decrease in numbers.